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黑色金属早报-20250606
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as reduced production, seasonal decline in demand, high supply, and potential negative feedback [2][3]. - The double - coking market has a marginal reduction in coking coal supply, but the inventory pressure remains. The current price increase is considered a phased rebound, and the improvement of the supply - demand relationship needs further observation [8]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate as the core factors driving price changes are weak, and there will be repeated games in the off - season [12]. - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the small - sample output of rebar was 218.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.05 million tons, and the apparent demand was 229.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8%), a week - on - week decrease of 19.65 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 328.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 million tons, and the apparent demand was 320.92 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 2.86%), a week - on - week decrease of 6.01 million tons. The total inventory increased by 7.83 million tons. The overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.79 million tons. In late May, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.091 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector rose in the night session yesterday. Steel production decreased overall this week. Entering the off - season, the apparent demand for steel declined rapidly, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The supply is still high, and coal - coke prices drag down the cost of steel. There is a risk of negative feedback, and the steel price trend is downward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Hold the short position on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. It is recommended to wait and see for options [3][6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.899 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19 million tons. The raw coal inventory was 6.708 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 297 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 745 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18 million tons. The clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 77 million tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points. The average daily pig - iron output was 2.418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 60.5 million tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, the macro - sentiment improved, and the coking coal price rebounded significantly in the night session. The coking coal price still showed a slight decline in the spot market, and the third - round price cut of coke has been partially implemented. The supply of coking coal has a marginal reduction, but the inventory pressure remains. It is considered a phased rebound for now [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see mainly, or try short positions lightly at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [8]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 247,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US trade deficit in April was $61.6 billion, the smallest since August 2023. The ECB cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 728 yuan (-5), and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 64 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 1.07% in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and it is in the seasonal peak of shipments. On the demand side, the pig - iron output in May was at a high level, and the terminal demand is resilient. The market may repeatedly game on the weak reality in the off - season, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate. Use 9/1 positive spreads for arbitrage mainly. Wait and see for options [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: A silicon - manganese plant in Shanxi reduced production by 50 tons per day in June. On the evening of June 5, the Chinese and US presidents had a phone call, and the atmosphere was positive [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: On May 5, the spot price of silicon iron was stable with a weak trend. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand from the steel industry has declined. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The silicon iron is expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment. The manganese - ore price was weak on May 5. The supply of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the demand was suppressed. The manganese - silicon market also rebounds following the macro - sentiment [15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The ferroalloy is expected to rebound in the short term following the macro - sentiment. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell call options at high prices [17].
华金期货螺纹周报-20250605
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 10:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the black metal market rebounded slightly after a significant decline. Demand is gradually entering the off - season and is expected to remain under pressure. With a high degree of uncertainty in the macro - environment and insufficient market speculation sentiment, prices are expected to have further downside potential [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - MySteel's weekly data shows that the total output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons to 218.46 tons this week, with electric furnace output falling by 0.59 tons and blast furnace output dropping by 6.46 tons. The SAC旬ly data indicates that steel production is at a high level. With good steel mill profits, overall production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Demand - The apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly this week, showing overall weakness. It is expected that demand will be hard to show strong performance in the third quarter. As demand enters the off - season, it will continue to be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker reflects some support from the infrastructure sector [17]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory continued to decline slightly this week. The rebar mill inventory decreased by 1.60 tons to about 184.86 tons, and the social inventory dropped by 8.97 tons to 385.62 tons. The total inventory fell by 10.57 tons to 570.48 tons. The SAC旬ly data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [23]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,750 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is about 2,800 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of common square billets on June 4th (2,900 yuan/ton), steel mills have an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [27]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices continued to decline, while spot prices fell less, leading to an expansion of the basis. The Shanghai Zhongtian rebar spot price dropped from 3,120 yuan to 3,110 yuan, and the Tangshan Qian'an steel billet price decreased from 2,920 yuan to 2,880 yuan [3][30][31]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level, and the ratio of the main rebar contract to iron ore futures remains at a low level. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metal market is expected to have limited upside potential [37]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared with January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [41].
国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250519
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 07:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is mainly driven by industrial fundamentals, with the overall valuation center gradually shifting down due to the loose supply of furnace materials. Different sub - sectors show different trends. For example, the sentiment - driven rebound in rebar trading is cooling, while silicon iron in ferroalloys may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply [6][151]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The average daily pig iron output has slightly decreased to 244wt +, but the short - term downward space for output is limited. For a significant production reduction, it requires weakening demand for plates or domestic building materials, inventory accumulation, and negative production profits [6]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The weekly demand has rebounded after the holiday. Steel exports are still strong, but the price rebound is limited by export profit ceilings [6]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. After the holiday impact, inventory removal and apparent demand have returned to normal, with a relatively low total inventory level [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly widened, and the futures are at a discount [6]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low level, but the point - to - point profit is still positive [6]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. After the price decline, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the relative valuation is low, but there is still room for absolute valuation compression [6]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The easing of Sino - US trade frictions has driven an emotional rebound, but the impact on the black metal sector is limited [6]. - **Investment View**: Hold. The black metal sector has a weak rebound, and the industrial driving logic remains unchanged. It is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and position management and appropriately rotate positions; for arbitrage, take profit when the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct a positive hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has recovered, but the seasonal demand decline pressure will increase. The pig iron output has slightly decreased but may remain at a high level [49]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines face increased shipping pressure, prices have generally fallen, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, and there is still an expectation of price cuts [49]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory, while upstream coal mines are passively accumulating inventory [49]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round coke price cut has been implemented, and the cost of warehouse receipts has changed [49]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profitability is good, and coking profits have increased, but there is an expectation of coke price cuts [49]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The main trading logic of the black metal sector is the upstream's continuous profit - sharing with the downstream due to the loose supply of furnace materials. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the JM9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments are stable, and the impact of port incidents is limited. The overall supply is in a neutral state [97]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output has reached a high level and may decline slightly, and the port inventory will experience a small - scale de - stocking [97]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The port inventory will stably and slightly decrease with stable arrivals and pig iron production [97]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still good, so the pig iron output will remain stable in the short term [97]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With the high - level pig iron output and the expectation of production control, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [97]. - **Inter - month Spread**: Bullish. The near - month contract has good demand, while the far - month contract faces greater supply pressure [97]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production control, the iron ore market will be in a weak shock in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the market needs steel mills' spontaneous production cuts [97]. - **Investment View**: Shock. The iron ore market is expected to be in a shock state [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above 100 US dollars; for arbitrage, reduce positions and take profit on the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [97]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is neutral, and silicon iron is bullish. There have been continuous production cuts by large manufacturers. Silicon iron has tight spot resources, while manganese silicon has no expectation of large - scale production cuts after profit recovery [151]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The pig iron output has slightly decreased, and Hebei Steel's tender has entered the market with an increased volume [151]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and silicon iron is bullish. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts have decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, while the silicon iron warehouse receipts have slightly increased, and the social inventory is low [151]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The manganese silicon basis has strengthened, and the month - spread is stable; the silicon iron basis is stable, and the month - spread has strengthened [151]. - **Cost**: Neutral. The manganese silicon cost remains stable, and the silicon iron cost is affected by factors such as raw material prices [151]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The overall valuation is in a neutral state [151]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has improved, which will drive the actual demand for commodities [151]. - **Investment View**: Shock. Silicon iron may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply, while manganese silicon is expected to move in a shock state. Pay attention to Hebei Steel's tender pricing [151]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in silicon iron; for arbitrage, conduct an inter - month positive arbitrage [151].
宏观利好兑现,钢矿震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 12:18
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观利好兑现,钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价高位回落,录得 0.88%日涨幅,量仓收缩。现阶段, 中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展,市场情绪回暖,黑色金属集体回升,但 主要下游行业未好转,螺纹需求将季节性走弱,螺纹基本面仍难实质性 改善,钢价继续承压运行,多空因素博弈下钢价延续震荡运行态势,关 注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板:主力期价冲高回落,录得 0.78%日涨幅,量仓收缩。目前来 看,热卷供应高位运行,压力相对偏大,而需求有所走弱,供强需弱局 面下基本面表现偏弱,热卷价格继续承压,相对利好则是海外风险暂 缓,市场情绪修复,预计热卷价格短期震荡企稳,关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石:主力期价高位震荡,录得 1.06%日涨幅,量缩仓增。现阶 段,中美贸易谈判取得实质性性进展,市场情绪回暖,驱动矿价低位回 升,但需求趋于触顶,且供应在回升,基本面预期走弱,上行空间谨慎 乐观,关注成材表现情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号 ...
国贸期货:黑色金属周报-20250512
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:53
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each sub - industry: - **Threaded Steel**: Investment view is to "observe" [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Suggests "shorting on rallies", with a generally bearish outlook [49] - **Iron Ore**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [95] - **Ferroalloys**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [149] 2. Core Views - The core logic of the black sector is that the supply of furnace materials is becoming more abundant, and the upstream of the industrial chain is making concessions to the downstream. Cost loosening has led to a downward shift in the valuation center. The impact of demand - side and supply - side policies on prices is currently limited [7]. - The performance of different sub - industries is affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and policies. For example, in the coking coal and coke market, the increasing supply and the expected decline in demand are the main factors leading to the bearish outlook [49]. 3. Summary by Sub - industry 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Currently at a high level, with limited short - term downward potential. Future production reduction may require weakening demand and negative production profits [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand data has weakened, but it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to distinguish between the impact of the holiday and actual demand decline. Export demand remains strong [7]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the holiday, it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to determine the real demand situation [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is stable, and the futures are at a discount [7]. - **Profit**: Spot steel mill profits have declined to a low level but are still in the positive range [7]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low, with room for further compression [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: The market's response to macro - policies is not positive, and the short - term market may be affected by Sino - US trade negotiations [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do rolling hedging and position management; for arbitrage, take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive arbitrage on hot - rolled coil [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: There is a need to pay attention to whether the expected decline in steel demand is realized. High - level hot metal production continues [49][62]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Mines are accumulating inventory, and the pressure on production - end shipments is increasing. The price of Mongolian coal is declining, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49][70]. - **Coke Supply**: Supply is still sufficient, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing [49][73]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory shows a decline in all links according to one institution, but the opposite according to another. Coking coal inventory shows a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream reduction [49][75]. - **Basis/Spread**: The expectation of coke price cuts is rising, and the cost of coke warehouse receipts is changing [49]. - **Profit**: Steel mills' profitability is good, while the profitability of coking plants is weak, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the JM9 - 1 contract [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Shipment is stable, but the overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year [95]. - **Demand**: Steel mill hot metal production continues to rise, and the demand in May is expected to remain high, leading to a slight decline in port inventory [95]. - **Inventory**: With stable arrivals and hot metal production, port inventory will decline slightly [95]. - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are still good, so hot metal production will remain stable in the short term [95]. - **Valuation**: In the short term, the valuation is relatively neutral under the expectation of production restrictions [95]. - **Cross - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for positive arbitrage due to factors such as high near - month demand and greater far - month supply pressure [95]. - **Macro and Policy**: Without considering production restrictions, the iron ore market will be in a weak sideways trend in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel mills' self - initiated production cuts may occur [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider single - side shorting above $100; continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [95]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: The production reduction of manganese silicon has expanded, while the production of ferrosilicon has rebounded due to electricity price concessions in Ningxia, but losses in other regions are increasing [149]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production remains at a high level of 245 [149]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon has a heavy warehouse receipt inventory pressure, and the factory inventory of ferrosilicon is declining rapidly, but the 06 warehouse receipts need to be cancelled [149]. - **Basis/Spread**: The current futures are at a large discount, and the basis and monthly spread are strengthening due to production cuts [149]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is under downward pressure, with factors such as the decline in manganese ore prices and electricity price subsidies [149]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low [149]. - **Macro and Policy**: A high - level meeting was held, and an interest rate cut was implemented, but the magnitude was in line with expectations [149]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, observe [149].