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降准降息叠加港币强势,内外资共振之下,恒生科技有望再掀浪潮
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-08 02:40
Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline in early trading on May 8, with technology stocks falling while biotechnology stocks rose [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index turned positive after opening, rising nearly 1.5%, with leading stocks including Li Auto, Meituan, Tencent Music, Trip.com Group, Tencent Holdings, Xiaopeng Motors, and China Literature showing significant gains [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market due to the Hong Kong dollar's strength, injecting a total of HKD 1,166.14 billion into the market following multiple interventions triggered by the strong demand for the currency related to stock investments [1] Group 2 - Despite rising global market risk aversion, the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive to foreign capital, indicating a certain level of investment value [2] - In April, net inflows from southbound funds reached HKD 1,666.72 billion, continuing to rise and marking the third consecutive month of record high levels [2] - The recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in China are expected to support the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the AI industry and domestic technology sectors likely to benefit from ongoing narratives of self-sufficiency [2]
国泰海通|海外策略:回顾美股历史上三次巨震
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical extreme fluctuations in the US stock market over the past fifty years, highlighting three significant events: Black Monday in 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It emphasizes that the future trajectory of the US stock market may depend on the impact of tariff policies on the economy and the pace of industrial transformation led by AI [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Market Fluctuations - The US stock market has experienced three major extreme fluctuations in the past fifty years: Black Monday in 1987, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which are considered the most typical major shocks in this period [1][2]. - Black Monday in 1987 was characterized by a combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, pressure from a depreciating dollar, and a bubble burst leading to significant sell-offs, resulting in the largest single-day drop in history [2]. - The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, which led to a liquidity crisis, culminating in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and a simultaneous drop in stocks, bonds, and currencies [2]. - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic slowdown, with significant negative impacts on production, consumption, and employment in the US, leading to multiple market circuit breakers being triggered within ten days [2]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Since April, the tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to significant volatility in the US stock market, raising concerns about a potential "hard landing" for the US economy amid increasing policy uncertainty and trade tensions [3]. - The impact of tariff policies on the US economy has not yet fully materialized, and if previously postponed tariffs are implemented, the economy may face risks of hard landing or stagflation, which could put additional pressure on the stock market [3]. - The ongoing industrial transformation driven by AI is seen as a critical factor that may support corporate earnings in the US stock market as the trend continues to evolve [3].