1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by cost and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The overall situation will still maintain a volatile state. Today, polysilicon showed an overall upward and then downward trend, maintaining a volatile state. It is expected that the future price center may further decline. The operation suggestion is to layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 51,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,380, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 [2] - The main position volume of polysilicon is 136,801 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,596; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 235 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The basis of polysilicon is - 2,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 175; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 110; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons [2] - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 57 tons [2] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,004,000 kilowatts; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 28.48, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 [2] - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, with a month - on - month increase of 21,456,820 units [2] - The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, with a month - on - month increase of 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. This was mainly due to the improvement of operation efficiency, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation became the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy started a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output of polysilicon will increase in August. If the "production and sales restriction" is implemented in September, the monthly output may be flat compared with the previous month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up bases in the southwest are at full production, and although some enterprises in the northwest are starting and stopping, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2] View Summary - The supply of polysilicon is increasing, while the demand is weakening. The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but the downstream is highly wait - and - see. The impact of weak terminal demand is gradually emerging. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain have been raised, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed, and the terminal transaction pressure is relatively large, which restricts the demand for polysilicon to a certain extent [2] Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Domestic Macro - On August 15, Xi Jinping's article emphasized the need to promote the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy[8] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report indicated a focus on maintaining appropriate monetary easing and ensuring liquidity[8] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of consolidating economic recovery during the State Council's ninth plenary meeting on August 18[8] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance announced a new 100 billion yuan quota for agricultural and small business loans on August 19[4] - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti-subsidy investigation period for EU dairy products on August 18[4] - The National Health Insurance Administration initiated a meeting to discuss key healthcare policies on August 18[4] Local Policies - Hainan Province announced adjustments to real estate policies to support housing improvements on August 15[5] - Chongqing's Business Committee allocated an additional 300 million yuan for vehicle replacement subsidies in 2025[5] - Shanghai released an implementation plan to accelerate the development of "AI + manufacturing" on August 17[5] Overseas Dynamics - The U.S. expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50% on August 15, affecting hundreds of products[6] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that nearly all policymakers supported maintaining interest rates, with only two dissenting[6] - The U.S. and Russia held a meeting in Alaska on August 15, but no agreements were reached[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in China, which is expected to support stable economic growth amid various challenges [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total revenue from broad fiscal sources was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [3]. - Broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3%, significantly outpacing the economic growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit, which exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marked a year-on-year increase of 47% [3]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue saw a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter, but subsequent months showed growth, leading to a reduction in the decline to just 0.3% over the first seven months [4]. - Stable growth in VAT and a surge in securities transaction stamp duty contributed to the recovery in tax revenue, reflecting an overall improvement in economic conditions [4]. Land Transfer Revenue - The revenue from land transfers amounted to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, although the rate of decline has been narrowing [6]. Government Debt and Financing - Net financing from government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - The government is accelerating bond issuance to maintain fiscal expenditure levels, particularly in key areas such as social welfare, education, and healthcare [8]. Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting in late July emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support, including more proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies [8]. - Despite concerns about potential reductions in fiscal spending in the second half of the year, estimates suggest that the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth rate could remain between 4.1% and 6.7%, aligning with economic growth targets of 4.7% to 4.8% [9]. Future Fiscal Strategy - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that there are sufficient reserve tools and policy space to respond to uncertainties in the economic environment [10]. - The focus will remain on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure economic development and social stability [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week due to increased supply and weakened demand. The price is likely to show a volatile trend, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The industrial silicon market will also maintain a volatile state as demand declines steadily while supply also drops. It is recommended to wait and see or arrange put options [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon was 51,530 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 149,610 lots, down 476 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,325 yuan, up 85 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,895 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was -4,875 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon was 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the spot price was 9,250 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons, and the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged, and the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units, and the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2] Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. However, considering the resumption of production at some bases of three domestic leading enterprises and the release of some new production capacities in the second half of the year, if the resumption progress accelerates or new production capacities are released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be about 580 GW in 2025 and the domestic demand is about 1300,000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the rise of polysilicon prices. It is expected that the start - up rate of downstream photovoltaic enterprises will hardly increase. With increased supply and weakened demand, the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. The price is likely to fluctuate, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, and the supply is also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state [2] Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. Although industrial silicon rebounded significantly today driven by news, it plunged in the late trading session, and there are doubts about whether the upward trend can continue. Currently, the fundamentals do not support a substantial increase. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the main contract position is 283,578 lots, up 3,710 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 77,137 lots, up 14,988 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,613 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 40 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 615 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly industrial silicon output is 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, up 0.21 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link. It is expected that the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links will be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to rise, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market remained flat this week, with slightly lower profits and a flat operating rate, which has limited driving effect on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, although the current operating rate is low, there is pressure from potential resumption of production and new production capacity; the short - term weak demand situation is difficult to improve significantly, but the cost support is obvious, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to expand effective investment, focusing on major projects to adapt to changing demands and promote private investment [1][4] - Fixed asset investment in China from January to July reached 288.229 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 1.6%, indicating a slight decline compared to the previous period [2][3] - Despite the nominal growth slowdown, the actual growth of fixed asset investment, after adjusting for price factors, is around 4% to 5%, suggesting a resilient investment volume [2][3] Group 2 - Key sectors such as water management and information transmission saw significant investment growth, with water management investment increasing by 12.6% and information transmission by 8.3% [3] - The investment structure is continuously optimizing, driven by innovation and large-scale equipment updates, with equipment investment growing by 15.2% and accounting for 16.2% of total investment [3] - Future investment strategies may include increasing support for large-scale equipment updates and issuing new local government special bonds to accelerate infrastructure investment [3][5] Group 3 - The focus on "effective" investment indicates a balanced approach, prioritizing new productive forces and addressing social needs while controlling investments in less effective areas [4] - The macroeconomic role of infrastructure investment is expected to become more prominent, with a focus on urban infrastructure renovation and consumer infrastructure development [4] - Enhancing the effectiveness of macro policies involves timely adjustments based on economic conditions, with an emphasis on increasing government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [5][6]

Core Insights - The banking industry in China is demonstrating resilience, with key indicators such as non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio remaining stable and improving [1][2][3] Group 1: Banking Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of China's banking sector reached 467.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2] - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4 billion yuan from the previous quarter, resulting in an NPL ratio of 1.49%, down by 0.02 percentage points [1][2] - In H1 2025, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 1.2 trillion yuan, with average capital return on equity at 8.19% and average asset return on equity at 0.63% [2] Group 2: Asset Quality Improvement - The asset quality across various types of banks has generally improved, with NPL ratios for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks at 1.21%, 1.22%, 1.76%, and 2.77% respectively [3] - The improvement in asset quality is attributed to increased efforts in NPL disposal and stable new NPL generation rates [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to sustain reasonable credit growth [3][4] - The issuance of personal consumption loans and service industry loan interest subsidy policies is expected to support retail credit volume and pricing [3] - The focus for NPL disposal in the second half of the year will likely remain on personal loans, including consumer loans and credit cards, while monitoring the real estate sector and export-related industries [4][5]

Monetary Policy Actions - In Q2 2025, the central bank lowered the re-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points and increased the re-lending quota for agriculture and small enterprises by CNY 300 billion each[2] - The central bank also reduced the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions[2] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was set at 3.0%, and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points[2] Economic Outlook - The report indicates a cautious stance on the external economic environment, highlighting weakened global growth and increased trade barriers[2] - Domestic economic conditions are described as stable, with strengths in market size, industrial systems, and talent resources, emphasizing the need for strategic focus[2] - The policy goals include maintaining stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" objectives[2] Future Policy Directions - The emphasis on "implementing and refining" the moderately loose monetary policy suggests a shift towards more precise and effective policy measures[3] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be enhanced to support technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises[2] - The report anticipates that the monetary policy will remain moderately loose in the second half of 2025, influenced by domestic fiscal policies and the stability of financial institutions[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a resurgence of overseas inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and increasing complexity in international relations[2]

整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现持平。今日工业硅整体收跌，对于工业硅来说，目前底 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 工业硅产业日报 2025-08-19 部成本支撑迹象明显，但顶部库存压力依旧，操作上建议,若后期跌破8000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多 免责声明 单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8625 | 20 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 286605 | ...

Core Views - Trump and Zelensky reported a good atmosphere in their talks; Trump also spoke with Putin, and both sides supported direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Li Qiang stated that effective measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase efforts to expand effective investment. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and it is recommended to use the T+0 feature of stock index futures, maintain positions, closely monitor market trends, lock in positions when a downward trend appears based on technical analysis, earn profits during the period of rising market sentiment, and stabilize profits when the trend is unfavorable [1]. - Considering the absolute levels, the yield of 30-year old bonds has risen to 2.15%, and the yield of newly issued 30-year local bonds has adjusted to over 2.32%, which is sufficient to cover the lowered liability costs of insurance funds, helping to attract insurance fund allocation. Meanwhile, there is a demand for corrective movement in the technical analysis of the equity market. The bond market may experience a slight recovery due to the "return to loose" liquidity conditions and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [2]. Strategy Recommendations - For stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. Market Review Stock Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.82%, SSE 50 rose 0.08%, CSI 500 rose 1.28%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.58% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract fell 0.29%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.21%, the 30-year main contract fell 1.33%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Type | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,237.80 | 0.82 | 99,705 | 168,841 | | 2025-08-18 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,848.40 | 0.08 | 52,884 | 74,907 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,608.00 | 1.28 | 83,689 | 129,184 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 7,184.40 | 1.58 | 187,694 | 220,587 | | 2025-08-18 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.02 | -0.29 | 90,469 | 107,322 | | 2025-08-18 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.46 | -0.21 | 70,226 | 86,134 | | 2025-08-18 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.09 | -1.33 | 141,981 | 61,613 | | 2025-08-18 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.30 | -0.04 | 46,079 | 61,412 | [7]