1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Contracts**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures both increased, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,075 yuan/ton (+215 yuan) and the alumina futures main contract at 3,063 yuan/ton (+65 yuan). The positions of the main contracts of both decreased, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract position at 189,969 hands (-1175 hands) and the alumina main contract position at 299,898 hands (-11326 hands) [2] - **LME Aluminum and Related Data**: The LME aluminum three - month quotation decreased to 2,470.50 US dollars/ton (-2.50 US dollars), the LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased to 46,025 tons (-2400 tons), and the LME aluminum inventory increased to 367,875 tons (+4819 tons) [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The Shanghai aluminum SHFE warehouse receipts decreased to 48,989 tons (-1905 tons), and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.13 (+0.10) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price increased to 20,280 yuan/ton (+160 yuan), and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price increased to 20,100 yuan/ton (+240 yuan). The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumaot aluminum premium decreased to 90 yuan/ton (-20 yuan), and the LME aluminum premium increased. The basis for electrolytic aluminum decreased to 205 yuan/ton (-55 yuan), and the basis for alumina decreased to 197 yuan/ton (-65 yuan) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Demand**: Alumina production decreased to 732.30 million tons (-15.22 million tons), the capacity utilization rate decreased to 82.10% (-6.18%), the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased to 693.70 million tons (-30.02 million tons), and the supply - demand balance decreased to - 9.93 million tons (-13.48 million tons) [2] - **Alumina Trade**: Alumina exports decreased to 26 million tons (-4 million tons), and imports decreased to 1.07 million tons (-0.05 million tons) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased to 4,518.20 million tons (+1.00 million tons), the production of primary aluminum imports increased to 250,476.81 tons (+28656.52 tons), and the exports increased to 13,672.79 tons (+4972.94 tons) [2] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory and开工率**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased to 48.20 million tons (-2.30 million tons), and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 increased to 97.60% (+0.10%) [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Product Output**: The output of aluminum products decreased to 576.40 million tons (-21.77 million tons), the output of aluminum alloy decreased to 152.80 million tons (-12.70 million tons), and automobile production decreased to 260.40 million vehicles (-44.06 million vehicles) [2] - **Export Volume**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased to 52 million tons (+1 million tons), and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased to 1.66 million tons (-0.16 million tons) [2] 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai aluminum increased to 12.39% (+0.36%) and 15.48% (+0.24%) respectively. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased to 9.87% (-0.0069%), and the option call - put ratio increased to 0.67 (+0.0252) [2] 3.7 Industry News - **Economic Forecast**: The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the United States and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop to 2.9% [2] - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - **Automobile Industry Initiative**: The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative to resist "price war" competition and regulate the industry [2] - **Tariff Policy**: US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, 2025 [2]

1. 越南1-5月外资流入达89亿美元，同比增长7.9%。 2. 日本内阁官房长官林芳正：日本尚未收到美国关于贸易谈判中提出最佳报价的信函。 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月4日） 美元： 非美主要货币： 7. 英国央行-①行长贝利：利率走向仍然偏向下行。逐步且审慎仍将是制定利率的指导原则。②委员曼 恩：在利率方面采取更大胆的举措比长期按兵不动要好。③副行长布里登：即使没有关税冲击，五月份 也有理由降息。 其他： 3. 泰国联合企业集团预计2025年泰国GDP增长率为1.5%至2.0%（此前预期为2.0%至2.2%）。 1. 美国4月空缺职位意外大增，支持美联储就业市场状况良好的说法。 2. 美国4月工厂订单月率录得-3.7%，为2024年1月以来最大降幅。 3. 美联储博斯蒂克：仍然认为今年可能会有一次降息。 4. 美联储洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足。 5. 马斯克：巨大的过度支出将使美国成为债务奴隶！ 1. 中国央行今日开展2149亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。 2. 澳大利亚一季度经济不及市场预期，强化澳洲联储加速降息的预期。 3. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-04 2025-06-03，沪银主力合约开于 8520元/千克，收于 8456元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 547586手，持仓量 370146手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,475 元/千克，收于 8,476 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.20%。 联储官员内部仍存分歧 世界黄金协会力捧黄金 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-06-03，美国 10 年期国债利率收于4.46%，较前一交易日变化-0.02%，10 年前与 2 年期利差为0.50%，较前 一交易日下降2个基点。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-06-03，Au2502合约上，多头较前一日变化-412手，空头则是变化-323手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 234225手，较前一交易日上涨 -42.50%。在沪银方面，在 Ag2502 合约上，多头552手，空头增持-383手。白银合 约上个交易日总成交量 763377手，较前一交易日下降 -9.96%。 市场要闻与重要数据 经合组织将2025年美国GDP预期下调至1.6%（之前为2.2%），将2026年的预期从1 ...

8. 美联储-洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足、博斯蒂克：仍然认为 今年可能会有一次降息。 2. 王毅会见美国新任驻华大使庞德伟。 3. 油价上调，加满一箱油将多花2.5元。 4. 商务部等五部门组织开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动。 5. 王文涛在法国分别会见澳大利亚贸易部长和欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员。 6. 李强日前签署国务院令，公布《政务数据共享条例》，自2025年8月1日起施行。 7. 全国工商联汽车经销商商会倡议：坚决抵制以"价格战"为主要形式的"内卷式"竞争行为。 国内新闻： 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①特朗普政府上调钢铝关税至50%，4日起效 ②消息人士：美国在关税谈判中向越南提出了一 份"又长又苛刻"的要求清单 ③消息人士：欧盟未收到美国要求提供 "最佳贸易报价"的信件 ④巴西总 统：若未能与美就关税达成协议，将诉诸世贸组织，或采取对等措施 ⑤印度-欧盟自贸协定加速推进 近 半议题已达成共识。 2. 荷兰首相宣布将递交辞呈。 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（6月4日） 1. 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈，外交部：没有可以提供的消息。 8. 5月财新中国制造 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan emphasizes the importance of monitoring employment levels that exceed the maximum sustainable capacity, suggesting a need for careful assessment of labor market conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve should focus on achieving inflation targets rather than being overly concerned with past performance that did not meet those targets [1] - The policy framework of the Federal Reserve should operate under a variety of hypothetical scenarios to ensure adaptability and effectiveness [1]

英国央行行长贝利：工资增长高于与2%通胀目标相符的水平，但低于二月份的预期。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：将根据物价和经济发展情况适当实施货币政策，以稳定和可持续的方式实现 2%的通胀目标。 ...

需要时间来决定如何处置日本央行持有的ETF。 未实现的日本国债亏损不会影响央行的营收。 日本央行行长植田和男：设定短期政策利率以达到通胀目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently in a good state, with risks to employment and inflation targets being "roughly balanced" [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy is described as being in a good state, indicating stability in the economic environment [1] Employment and Inflation - Risks associated with employment and inflation targets are considered to be "roughly balanced," suggesting that neither area is significantly more at risk than the other at this time [1]

将密切留意通胀预期。 预期建立在"根基不如以往那样牢固"的基础之上。 欧元区2%这一通胀目标已经触手可及。 通胀可能会比之前预期的更高，或者更低。 欧洲央行管委兼德国央行行长Nagel：现在预判欧洲央行6月份是否再次降息还言之过早。 ...