格隆汇12月15日｜欧洲央行观察家Anatoli Annenkov在一份报告中表示，考虑到数据的弹性和通胀预期 的下行风险降低，法国兴业银行不再预计欧洲央行将在2026年3月降息。然而，近期通胀下行风险依然 存在。尤其是美国关税造成的利润率压缩、劳动力市场状况缓和以及能源价格下跌，可能导致明年薪资 增长和通胀预期放缓，这可能促使欧洲央行采取行动。与市场一致，法国兴业银行也预计欧洲央行将在 本周的会议上维持利率不变。 ...

"最新数据显示，我们在通胀和GDP方面面临的风险相当平衡，"西姆库斯说。这可能意味着定于12月18 日做出的下一次政策决定"不会是一个艰难的决定"。 事实上，政策制定者现在似乎普遍达成共识：在可预见的未来，通胀将保持在足够接近其目标的水平， 且经济足以抵御贸易和乌克兰冲突等逆风。 执委施纳贝尔此前表示，她对投资者关于欧洲央行下次调整利率将是加息的押注感到"相当舒适"，尽 管"短期内不会发生"。 她周一发表的言论促使市场开始削减对欧洲央行进一步宽松的剩余押注，随后在全球引发了类似的重新 定价。 欧洲央行管委西姆库斯表示，由于经济活动和通胀均强于预期，利率无需进一步下调。 这位立陶宛央行行长周二表示，欧元区20国面临的下行风险并未如担忧的那样严重，他引用的证据包括 近期对第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）的上修。 "我们的通胀率在中期内或多或少接近2%的目标，这表明没有必要改变利率，不仅是在12月的下次会议 上，在未来的会议上也是如此，"西姆库斯在维尔纽斯接受采访时表示。 这番言论代表了西姆库斯立场的转变。他在10月份曾表示，通胀低于欧洲央行2%目标的可能性大于超 出的可能性，并敦促他的管委会同事不要排除本周期第九次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a balanced view on inflation risks in the Eurozone, indicating that current interest rates are appropriate [1]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Economic Forecasts - The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, with expectations that rates will remain stable even during the upcoming December meeting [1]. - New economic forecasts are anticipated to be released in December, likely indicating that inflation will fall below the ECB's 2% target next year [1]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Throughout most of this year, Eurozone inflation has hovered around the 2% target, but it is expected to dip below this target by 2026 due to statistical base effects [1]. - Some decision-makers express concerns that low inflation could become entrenched if businesses adjust wages and pricing behaviors accordingly [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The majority of decision-makers downplay the risks associated with inflation falling below the target, leading the market to believe that the ECB has concluded its rate-cutting cycle after halving deposit rates to 2% over the past year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) believes that current interest rates are at an "appropriate level" and do not require further adjustments [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rates** - ECB maintained interest rates earlier this month as expected, indicating no immediate plans for further changes [1] - **Economic Outlook** - ECB holds an optimistic view on economic growth and inflation, which has reduced expectations for further cuts in borrowing costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing slight declines around 1.1600 due to a mild rise in the US dollar, with investors focusing on upcoming key US economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data [1][5] Technical Overview - The Euro/USD shows signs of recovery but remains in a consolidation phase, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742. A breakout could lead to levels of 1.1788 and 1.1830, with a potential target of 1.1909 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1502, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly pivot of 1.1210 [3] Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating moderate upward potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a lack of clear trend [4] Market Sentiment - The Euro/USD is expected to remain in a consolidation state until a catalyst emerges, such as new guidance from the Federal Reserve or new trade news, with the dollar likely maintaining a dominant market tone [5] Economic Data Overview - Upcoming economic events include various indicators from Australia, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, with notable figures such as the Eurozone Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence expected to be released [6] Trade Relations - Global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain high. The US has imposed a 15% tariff on most European imports, while the EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods [7] Political Landscape in France - The political situation in France is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote regarding his budget plan, with potential implications for President Emmanuel Macron's government [8] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating rising risks in the labor market and inflation not yet at target levels, opening the door for potential rate cuts [9] European Central Bank's Position - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde suggesting that Eurozone economic growth is stable, indicating no urgency for rate cuts [10] Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the Euro have increased, with net long positions rising to a three-week high, indicating growing confidence in market positions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current borrowing costs in the Eurozone are deemed sufficient to handle ongoing trade tensions, allowing the European Central Bank (ECB) to respond flexibly to any further shocks [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - ECB President Joachim Nagel stated that key interest rates are at an ideal level, enabling observation of economic developments and flexible responses if necessary [1] - The consumer price index has stabilized at a year-on-year increase of 2% over the past two months, allowing inflation to be removed from the list of major challenges [1] - Market expectations have been reinforced regarding the ECB's limited willingness to lower rates again after eight consecutive 25 basis point cuts and maintaining rates at 2% in July [1] Group 2: Perspectives from Other Central Bank Leaders - Cyprus Central Bank Governor Christodoulos Christodoulou cautioned against interpreting last month's rate decision as a pause before further actions, deeming it premature [1] - Slovakia's central bank governor Peter Kazimir argued that the ECB should not lower rates again unless there is evidence of severe economic deterioration [1] - Latvia's Martins Kazaks emphasized the value of maintaining current interest rates, allowing the ECB time to assess the impact of recent EU-US trade agreements [1] Group 3: Trade Tensions and Tariffs - Nagel warned that the newly imposed tariffs by the US could cause damage, with many details still needing clarification [2] - He highlighted that the US tariff levels have significantly increased compared to before, and there is a risk of changing rules from the US government [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD has declined to a five-week low, challenging the support level at 1.1500 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar maintains its rebound ahead of the FOMC event, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged [2] - Optimism surrounding a US-EU framework agreement has supported the dollar's rise, with the agreement involving a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, while key industries are exempt from tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with some policymakers favoring preventive rate cuts while others prefer to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of July 22, speculators have reduced their net long positions in euros to approximately 125.5K contracts, the lowest level in two weeks, while institutional hedgers have cut their short positions to about 177.7K contracts [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD must break above the 2025 high of 1.1830 to target the peak of 1.1909 from September 2021, potentially challenging the significant 1.2000 level [7] - Short-term support levels are identified at 1.1518, followed by the June 19 low of 1.1445 and the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1344 [8] Group 4: Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, indicating further downside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests no clear trend has formed [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and divergent signals from central banks indicate that recent gains are hard-won, with a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve or signs of trade war de-escalation needed to reverse the Euro/USD trend in the short term [12]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, with the main rate at 2% and the deposit rate at 2.15%, indicating a pause in rate cuts for the time being [1][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the economic situation in the Eurozone is stable, with the cost of living crisis considered over, and emphasized the need to focus on future developments [3] - The ECB has lowered rates eight times in the past nine months from a peak of 4%, and is currently monitoring the impact of increased tariffs on EU exports from the US [3] Group 2 - The ECB forecasts that inflation will stabilize at 2% in the medium term, with wage growth expected to slow from 4.5% last year to 3.3% this year and 2.8% by 2026 [3] - BCA Research's chief strategist suggested that the ECB's July decision may be a pause before significant rate cuts in future meetings to prevent economic stagnation and avoid deflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].

Core Insights - The price pressures in the Eurozone are easing, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with greater flexibility as summer approaches [1] - Initial estimates for interest rates remain unchanged, with the market anticipating a reduction of approximately 21 basis points by the end of the year [1]