总体情况 到目前为止，欧元/美元似乎仍将保持盘整状态。突破这一区间需要催化剂——无论是美联储的新指引还是新的贸易消息。在此之前，美元很可能在奠定市 场基调方面保持主导地位。 基本面概述： 由于美元温和上涨，欧元/美元在1.1600附近小幅下跌，投资者正关注本周后半段美国关键数据的发布，包括第二季度GDP数据和个人消费支出(PCE)追踪的 通胀数据。 欧元/美元技术面概述： STARTRADER星迈分析，欧元/美元显示出复苏迹象，但仍处于盘整阶段。上行方面，阻力位位于8月高点1.1742（8月22日）。突破该水平可能为1.1788（7 月24日）和2025年上限1.1830（7月1日）铺平道路。若欧元/美元进一步走强，甚至可能开启2021年9月高点1.1909的大门，略低于1.2000的心理关口。 中期支撑位位于100日简单移动平均线（SMA）1.1502，高于8月低点1.1391（8月1日）和周线基点1.1210（5月29日）。 动量指标依然涨跌互现：相对强弱指数（RSI）略高于50，表明存在温和的上行潜力，但平均方向指数（ADX）低于11，表明缺乏明确的趋势。 | GMT | Event | Vol. | ...

智通财经APP获悉，德国央行行长、欧洲央行管理委员会成员约阿希姆·纳格尔表示，欧元区当前的借 贷成本水平足以应对持续存在的贸易阻力，使欧洲央行能够在必要时对进一步冲击作出反应。 纳格尔表示，"关键利率目前处于非常理想的水平，""我们可以从这里观察经济发展态势。如有需要， 我们能够灵活应对。" 按兵不动让欧洲央行有时间评估近期欧美贸易协定的影响——根据该协议，欧盟接受了美国对其近全部 出口商品征收15%关税的安排。 纳格尔指出，由于过去两个月消费者价格指数同比涨幅稳定在2%，"我们现在可以把通胀从重大挑战清 单中移除了。" 纳格尔警告称，这些关税将造成损害，且部分问题仍有待解决。 这番言论强化了市场预期：在一年内连续八次降息25个基点、并于7月将利率维持在2%后，欧洲央行下 个月再次降息的意愿可能有限。 "美国关税水平较之前显著提高，"他表示，"许多细节仍需厘清。重要的是最终不能留下解释空间。我 们从美国政府那里看到：今天的规则明天就可能改变。" 塞浦路斯央行行长赫里斯托祖鲁·帕察利德斯认为，将上月的利率决定解读为后续行动前的暂停"为时过 早"。 斯洛伐克央行行长彼得·卡齐米尔主张，除非出现经济严重恶化的证据， ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, with the main rate at 2% and the deposit rate at 2.15%, indicating a pause in rate cuts for the time being [1][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the economic situation in the Eurozone is stable, with the cost of living crisis considered over, and emphasized the need to focus on future developments [3] - The ECB has lowered rates eight times in the past nine months from a peak of 4%, and is currently monitoring the impact of increased tariffs on EU exports from the US [3] Group 2 - The ECB forecasts that inflation will stabilize at 2% in the medium term, with wage growth expected to slow from 4.5% last year to 3.3% this year and 2.8% by 2026 [3] - BCA Research's chief strategist suggested that the ECB's July decision may be a pause before significant rate cuts in future meetings to prevent economic stagnation and avoid deflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].

Core Insights - The price pressures in the Eurozone are easing, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with greater flexibility as summer approaches [1] - Initial estimates for interest rates remain unchanged, with the market anticipating a reduction of approximately 21 basis points by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's inflation rate in April remained at 2.2%, exceeding the expected 2.1%, complicating the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation has been above the ECB's target of 2% for six consecutive months [1] - The ECB's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% was influenced by concerns over economic growth due to escalating trade tensions from Trump's tariff agenda [1] Group 2: Economic Performance - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the first three months of the year, which was better than expected [1] - However, the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has since weakened the economic outlook for the region [1]