智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会成员、西班牙央行行长Jose Luis Escriva周三在马德里的一次活 动中表示，欧洲的利率处于"适当水平"，无需进一步调整。欧洲央行本月早些时候如预期保持利率不 变，并对经济增长和通胀持乐观态度，这抑制了人们对进一步降低借贷成本的预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing slight declines around 1.1600 due to a mild rise in the US dollar, with investors focusing on upcoming key US economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data [1][5] Technical Overview - The Euro/USD shows signs of recovery but remains in a consolidation phase, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742. A breakout could lead to levels of 1.1788 and 1.1830, with a potential target of 1.1909 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1502, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly pivot of 1.1210 [3] Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating moderate upward potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a lack of clear trend [4] Market Sentiment - The Euro/USD is expected to remain in a consolidation state until a catalyst emerges, such as new guidance from the Federal Reserve or new trade news, with the dollar likely maintaining a dominant market tone [5] Economic Data Overview - Upcoming economic events include various indicators from Australia, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, with notable figures such as the Eurozone Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence expected to be released [6] Trade Relations - Global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain high. The US has imposed a 15% tariff on most European imports, while the EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods [7] Political Landscape in France - The political situation in France is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote regarding his budget plan, with potential implications for President Emmanuel Macron's government [8] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating rising risks in the labor market and inflation not yet at target levels, opening the door for potential rate cuts [9] European Central Bank's Position - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde suggesting that Eurozone economic growth is stable, indicating no urgency for rate cuts [10] Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the Euro have increased, with net long positions rising to a three-week high, indicating growing confidence in market positions [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current borrowing costs in the Eurozone are deemed sufficient to handle ongoing trade tensions, allowing the European Central Bank (ECB) to respond flexibly to any further shocks [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - ECB President Joachim Nagel stated that key interest rates are at an ideal level, enabling observation of economic developments and flexible responses if necessary [1] - The consumer price index has stabilized at a year-on-year increase of 2% over the past two months, allowing inflation to be removed from the list of major challenges [1] - Market expectations have been reinforced regarding the ECB's limited willingness to lower rates again after eight consecutive 25 basis point cuts and maintaining rates at 2% in July [1] Group 2: Perspectives from Other Central Bank Leaders - Cyprus Central Bank Governor Christodoulos Christodoulou cautioned against interpreting last month's rate decision as a pause before further actions, deeming it premature [1] - Slovakia's central bank governor Peter Kazimir argued that the ECB should not lower rates again unless there is evidence of severe economic deterioration [1] - Latvia's Martins Kazaks emphasized the value of maintaining current interest rates, allowing the ECB time to assess the impact of recent EU-US trade agreements [1] Group 3: Trade Tensions and Tariffs - Nagel warned that the newly imposed tariffs by the US could cause damage, with many details still needing clarification [2] - He highlighted that the US tariff levels have significantly increased compared to before, and there is a risk of changing rules from the US government [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD has declined to a five-week low, challenging the support level at 1.1500 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar maintains its rebound ahead of the FOMC event, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged [2] - Optimism surrounding a US-EU framework agreement has supported the dollar's rise, with the agreement involving a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, while key industries are exempt from tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with some policymakers favoring preventive rate cuts while others prefer to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of July 22, speculators have reduced their net long positions in euros to approximately 125.5K contracts, the lowest level in two weeks, while institutional hedgers have cut their short positions to about 177.7K contracts [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD must break above the 2025 high of 1.1830 to target the peak of 1.1909 from September 2021, potentially challenging the significant 1.2000 level [7] - Short-term support levels are identified at 1.1518, followed by the June 19 low of 1.1445 and the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1344 [8] Group 4: Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, indicating further downside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests no clear trend has formed [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and divergent signals from central banks indicate that recent gains are hard-won, with a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve or signs of trade war de-escalation needed to reverse the Euro/USD trend in the short term [12]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, with the main rate at 2% and the deposit rate at 2.15%, indicating a pause in rate cuts for the time being [1][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the economic situation in the Eurozone is stable, with the cost of living crisis considered over, and emphasized the need to focus on future developments [3] - The ECB has lowered rates eight times in the past nine months from a peak of 4%, and is currently monitoring the impact of increased tariffs on EU exports from the US [3] Group 2 - The ECB forecasts that inflation will stabilize at 2% in the medium term, with wage growth expected to slow from 4.5% last year to 3.3% this year and 2.8% by 2026 [3] - BCA Research's chief strategist suggested that the ECB's July decision may be a pause before significant rate cuts in future meetings to prevent economic stagnation and avoid deflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].

Core Insights - The price pressures in the Eurozone are easing, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with greater flexibility as summer approaches [1] - Initial estimates for interest rates remain unchanged, with the market anticipating a reduction of approximately 21 basis points by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's inflation rate in April remained at 2.2%, exceeding the expected 2.1%, complicating the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation has been above the ECB's target of 2% for six consecutive months [1] - The ECB's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% was influenced by concerns over economic growth due to escalating trade tensions from Trump's tariff agenda [1] Group 2: Economic Performance - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in the first three months of the year, which was better than expected [1] - However, the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has since weakened the economic outlook for the region [1]