Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a structural bull market in the first half of 2025, driven by sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Southbound funds are becoming a key support force, with their holdings primarily focused on the financial sector, particularly banks, and are beginning to diversify into information technology and communication services [1] - Banks are characterized by low volatility and high dividend strategies, offering stable dividend yields, low volatility, and tax advantages on dividends, with a stable competitive landscape and minimal cyclical impact [1] - Overall, the Hong Kong stock market favors financial and technology sectors, while confidence in cyclical sectors remains weak [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The structural bull market in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain resilience in the second half of the year, with the internationalization of the Renminbi and the value of Hong Kong stocks as core Renminbi assets being long-term highlights [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects listed companies with a consistent ability to pay high dividends, covering traditional high-dividend sectors such as finance and real estate [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Hainan Free Trade Port marks a significant milestone in China's reform and opening-up, representing a systematic breakthrough rather than a simple upgrade from a free trade zone [3]. Group 1: Overview of Hainan Free Trade Port - Hainan Free Trade Port encompasses comprehensive reforms in the flow of goods, capital, personnel, and information, alongside fundamental changes in legal and regulatory frameworks [3]. - The construction of the free trade port will enter its second phase post-closure, focusing on facilitating trade, investment, cross-border capital flow, personnel movement, and data security [3]. Group 2: Comparison with Domestic and International Free Trade Zones - Hainan Free Trade Port is positioned as a higher benchmark compared to Shanghai Free Trade Zone, with over 70% of goods enjoying zero tariffs and various special policy arrangements [4]. - Internationally, Hainan is compared to free trade ports like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore, which typically offer tariff exemptions and favorable tax policies to attract capital and talent [4]. Group 3: Macro Impact on Industry and Economy - The integration of "duty-free + cultural tourism" and "duty-free + exhibitions" will enhance Hainan's consumer appeal, creating a consumption ecosystem [5]. - The cross-border asset management pilot in Hainan will provide new channels for foreign investors to access domestic markets, contributing to the internationalization of the Renminbi [5]. - Hainan has introduced 14 categories of encouraged industries and 176 sub-sectors, focusing on cultural tourism, renewable energy, healthcare, aerospace, and environmental protection, significantly enhancing its attractiveness to global investors [5]. - The trade structure is shifting towards high value-added products, with a rapid growth in service trade and an upgrade in trade facilitation aligned with high-standard economic and trade rules [5].

Macro - Hainan's customs closure represents a systematic breakthrough rather than a simple upgrade of the free trade zone, impacting four main areas: creating a consumer ecosystem that integrates culture, sports, commerce, and tourism; exploring new channels for foreign investors to enter the domestic market, which is a key step in the internationalization of the RMB; continuously optimizing the institutional environment, business conditions, and tax incentives, significantly enhancing attractiveness to global investors; and transforming trade structure towards high value-added directions, upgrading trade facilitation, and actively aligning with high-standard economic and trade rules [4]. Steel - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2015 Revision)" on February 8, 2025, leading to the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)," with a focus on orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This aligns with the broader policy goal of supply-side reform adapting better to demand changes, suggesting that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book ratio of steel stocks may also recover accordingly [4]. - On July 25, the exchange announced that non-futures company members or clients could not exceed a daily opening position of 500 lots for the JM2509 contract and 2000 lots for other contracts, advising caution against significant price fluctuations in futures [4]. Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory has reached a near four-year low for the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation. Demand is expected to be weak in Q3, leading to short-term price fluctuations. However, with the anticipated recovery in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, along with the gradual resolution of trade conflicts, copper prices are expected to rise in Q4 [5][6]. Basic Chemicals - The chemical industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with a focus on supply-side reforms driven by the exit of outdated production capacity. Key sub-sectors such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments and dyes, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC are highlighted for their supply-side reform and capacity elimination, with leading companies likely to benefit [6]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - In Q2, production capacity saw a slight recovery, with average weights and inventory levels increasing. As of July 25, the national average price for external three-yuan pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, down 0.84% week-on-week, while the average price for 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, down 0.22% week-on-week. The average weight of market pigs was 128.48 kg, down 0.35 kg week-on-week, and the national frozen product inventory rate was 14.46%, up 0.1 percentage points [7]. Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - In the photovoltaic sector, the price support measures and the feasibility of the "storage" plan will determine the stock price trends of related companies. Although trading limits on "coking coal" and "lithium carbonate" have begun to be implemented, the theme of "de-involution" remains strong in the short term. In the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower sector, the total investment for downstream hydropower projects is approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, with a focus on the GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) segment, which has an investment scale comparable to that of hydropower turbines [8]. Pharmaceuticals - The recent collection policy is reshaping the industry ecosystem, with high-quality companies facing value reassessment. The innovative pharmaceutical sector is supported by multi-level policies, indicating strong growth momentum [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" held in Beijing focused on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform," discussing the implications of geoeconomic risks on the international monetary system and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2]. Group 1: Geoeconomic Risks - The report titled "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks" analyzes the sources and effects of geoeconomic risks, linking them to the internationalization of the Renminbi [2]. - It identifies that current geoeconomic risks stem from internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which are expected to deepen [2]. - The negative spillover effects of these risks have impacted China's real economy, financial markets, international trade, investment systems, global supply chains, and international financial markets [2]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The report suggests that promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and driving reforms in the international monetary system are crucial for mitigating geoeconomic risks [2]. - Data indicates that as the geoeconomic risk index rises, the Renminbi internationalization index also increases, alongside diversification in the global payment system and official reserve currencies [2]. Group 3: Forum Structure and Participation - The forum featured four thematic discussions, including "Research Results on Geoeconomic Risks" and "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System" [3]. - The International Monetary Forum, initiated by Renmin University, has been held annually since 2012, attracting renowned experts and scholars from various regions to discuss significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current geopolitical economic risks stem from the concentrated outbreak of internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which will continue to deepen. Promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and driving reforms in the international monetary system are seen as important directions to mitigate these risks [1][2]. - The Renminbi Internationalization Index (RII) shows an upward trend, indicating that the internationalization of the Renminbi is gradually adjusting the international monetary landscape. The RII values for the four quarters of 2024 are reported as 4.84, 7.40, 6.30, and 5.68, with an annual average of 6.06, reflecting an approximate 11% increase from the 2023 average of 5.46 [1][2]. - The report identifies the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary financial system as a "center-periphery" network structure, with the U.S. being the main source of global geopolitical economic risks. The U.S. government can exploit its unique privileges associated with the dollar, using unilateral policies as economic weapons against other countries [2]. Group 2 - Geopolitical economic risks negatively impact China's real economy and financial markets, as well as the international trade investment system, global supply chains, and international financial markets. The internationalization of the Renminbi is viewed as an effective response to these risks [2]. - The report notes that the fragmentation of cross-border payment networks is becoming more pronounced due to geopolitical economic risks. While the dollar's international monetary status may be temporarily reinforced, the rise of regional and local currency settlements will exert long-term pressure on dollar hegemony [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for countries, including China, to prepare for the impacts of geopolitical economic risks initiated by central countries. It also calls for seeking fundamental solutions to these risks through perspectives such as great power strategic competition, international monetary system reform, and global financial governance reform [3].

Group 1 - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" focused on geopolitical economic risks and global financial governance reform, discussing strategies to address these risks and the impact of digital currencies on the international monetary system [1] - Experts emphasized the need for new solutions in global governance, with China positioning itself as a key player in financial governance reform through high-level financial openness and cautious internationalization of the RMB [1][2] - The current international monetary system, evolving from the Bretton Woods system, faces structural issues, including insufficient stability of the dollar-dominated financial system and weakened global confidence in the dollar zone [2] Group 2 - Five reform suggestions were proposed to improve the international monetary system, reduce negative spillover effects of monetary policy, reform international financial organizations, enhance international financial regulatory cooperation, and oppose financial hegemony [2] - The relationship between geopolitical economic risks and RMB internationalization was highlighted, indicating that rising geopolitical risk indices correlate with increased RMB internationalization indices [3] - The need for a market-oriented, rule-based approach to RMB internationalization was emphasized, focusing on optimizing asset quality, expanding long-term capital market entry, and strengthening the rule of law [3] Group 3 - The impact of digital currencies on the global financial landscape was discussed, with concerns raised about systemic financial risks associated with stablecoins and the potential instability of the dollar if the U.S. fails to address its twin deficits [3] - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, driven by the U.S. and China, with trade, technology, resources, and climate being key influencing areas [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is positioned as a strategic testing ground for stablecoins, driven by regulatory policies and the readiness for cryptocurrency trading, which will benefit issuers, brokers, and fintech companies first [2][5]. Regulatory Framework - The new stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong will take effect on August 1, 2025, marking a significant step in the global stablecoin regulatory race [5]. - Key highlights of the regulations include a requirement for issuers to maintain a 1:1 high liquidity reserve, a minimum capital requirement of 25 million HKD, and mandatory transparency regarding reserve asset composition [6][7]. Industry Opportunities - Companies with mature blockchain technology, such as Futu Holdings and ZhongAn Online, are expected to be early beneficiaries of the stablecoin market due to their existing connections with cryptocurrency platforms [3][8]. - Traditional financial institutions may experience a slower transformation, as stablecoins do not generate interest and cannot be used for lending, limiting their competitive impact [8]. Challenges for RMB Stablecoin - The development of RMB stablecoins (CNH) may lag behind USD and HKD stablecoins due to factors such as limited offshore RMB liquidity (approximately 1 trillion RMB) and competition with existing RMB cross-border settlement tools [4][9]. - Despite these challenges, there is potential for RMB stablecoins to gain traction if they can integrate with the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) and expand offshore RMB bond issuance [9]. Future Outlook - Hong Kong's stablecoin initiative is a strategic move for China to respond to global digital finance competition and solidify its status as an international financial center [11][12]. - The stablecoin framework may reshape cross-border investment processes, enabling seamless transactions across different currencies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has seen a recent adjustment, with its global payment share declining to 2.88% as of June 2025, ranking sixth globally, following a drop below 3% in May and June [1][3][7] Group 1: Global Payment Landscape - The US dollar remains dominant in global payments, holding a 47.2% share in June 2025, despite a decline of over 1 percentage point from the previous month [3] - The euro, as the second-largest payment currency, maintained a stable share of 23.9% in June, highlighting the strong position of Western currencies in the global payment system [5] - The British pound's share increased to 7.6%, supported by London's status as a major financial hub, while the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar also saw slight increases in their payment shares [7] Group 2: Factors Behind RMB Payment Share Adjustment - The decline in RMB payment share is not directly linked to the US-China trade war, as China's foreign trade showed growth in the second quarter of 2025 [9] - The rapid development of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has led to a significant increase in RMB cross-border payment efficiency, with a 43% year-on-year growth in transaction amounts processed by CIPS in 2024 [11] - The structural differences in payment scenarios, where small cross-border payments are often processed outside the SWIFT system, contribute to the perceived decline in RMB payment data [13] Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB Internationalization - The adjustment in RMB payment share reflects a diversified internationalization path, with CIPS and other financial innovations expanding the use of RMB beyond traditional trade [15] - Continued economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and ASEAN will provide broader opportunities for RMB in regional trade settlements [15] - The ongoing optimization of financial infrastructure, including the integration of CIPS with local clearing systems, is expected to enhance RMB settlement efficiency [15][17]

7月28日，截至9时59分，金融科技板块表现活跃，中证金融科技主题指数上涨1.11%，金融IT、稳定币 概念、互联网券商等多细分赛道活跃。成份股方面，银信科技上涨超5%，四方精创、财富趋势、大智 慧等纷纷上涨超3%。热门ETF方面，规模、流动性同类断层第一的金融科技ETF（159851）场内价格冲 高逾1%，成交额超2亿元。 多角度把握金融科技机会，建议重点关注金融科技ETF（159851）及其联接基金（A类013477、C类 013478），标的指数全面覆盖了互联网券商、金融IT、跨境支付、AI应用、华为鸿蒙等热门主题。截至 7月23日，金融科技ETF（159851）最新规模超85亿元，近6个月日均成交额超5.5亿元，规模、流动性 在跟踪同一标的指数的3只ETF中断层第一！ 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 风险提示：金融科技ETF被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数，该指数基日为2014.6.30，发布日期为 2017.6.22，该指数2020-2024年年度涨跌幅分别为：10.46%、7.16%、-21.40%、10.03%、31.54%，指数 成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basis for the US dollar's correction has loosened due to the lack of new driving forces. The US dollar index is in a volatile and weak pattern, while the RMB exchange market continues to operate smoothly. The euro lacks internal driving force for its movement, and the Japanese yen strengthens due to increased global risk aversion [1][3][4] - Fundamentally, the economic expectation difference is neutral, the Sino - US interest rate spread is neutral, and the uncertainty of trade policies is neutral, with the marginal negative impact weakening [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis US Dollar against RMB - The US dollar index is under pressure this week. The preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, and Trump's tariff proposal has raised concerns about inflation and trade frictions. China's cross - border payments and receipts have reached a record high, and the foreign exchange market continues the net inflow pattern. The RMB's global payment share in June was 2.88%, and the LPR remains unchanged [1] Other Currencies - **Euro**: The economic recovery in the eurozone is slow, and the tariff negotiation process is sluggish. The preliminary values of the composite PMI and manufacturing PMI in July are 51 and 49.8 respectively, still in the contraction range. The European Central Bank maintains the interest rate unchanged and emphasizes "exceptional uncertainty" [3] - **Yen**: The US - Japan tariff crisis has eased. Japan's manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 48.8. After the two countries reached a tariff agreement, the yen strengthened due to increased risk - aversion demand [3] Strategy - **US Dollar against RMB**: It will maintain a short - term volatile and weak pattern within a range, as the US dollar index is under pressure and the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4] - **Euro**: It will maintain a volatile pattern due to weak consumption in the eurozone and ongoing US - EU trade negotiation games [4] - **Yen**: It will maintain a relatively strong volatile pattern after the US - Japan trade agreement [4]