1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The processing fee has rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance, but with relatively stable power grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. So, the overall price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The future development of the Putin-Biden meeting needs attention. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put pressure on the LME copper price. Also, the relatively strong performance of the domestic equity market may siphon off commodity funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, a -0.13% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The night session opened at 78,580 yuan/ton and closed at 78,710 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase from the afternoon closing [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 100 - 220 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average of 160 yuan/ton, a 30 yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,710 - 78,890 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered. Due to the concentrated arrival of imported and domestic copper sources, holders actively sold, leading to a general decline in premiums. It is expected that domestic copper will continue to arrive at the warehouse, and low - priced imported sources will suppress premiums, but downstream procurement may provide support near the weekend, so the downward space for spot premiums is limited [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5; the Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant increase in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3]. - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000; the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3]. - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Harmaque said she would not support a rate cut at the September meeting if Fed officials were to make a policy decision tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25BP rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping it unchanged [3]. Mine End - Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing to support the early construction of its Nussir copper project in Norway. The project is expected to cost $330 million to build, with a mine life of 25 years, an average annual output of 25,000 tons of copper concentrate, and associated silver and gold. The cash cost is only $1.38 per pound of copper, ranking in the low - cost quartile of the industry, and it aims to start production in September 2027 [4]. - Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship mine El Teniente reduced production by 33,000 tons. The expected output of El Teniente this year is 316,000 tons, and the production decline will cause a loss of $340 million [4]. Smelting and Import - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated on the 19th. Hong Kong's participation in the LME's delivery network is an important step in building a commodity trading ecosystem. China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to copper concentrate and cold material supply shortages increased compared to July [5]. Consumption - In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range; the leading index was 79.7, up 0.1 points from June; the coincident index was 73.8, down 0.9 points from June. In July 2025, China's copper foil export volume was 4,483.51 tons, a 13.32% year - on - year increase and a 3.23% month - on - month increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,200.00 tons to 156,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 66 tons to 25,157 tons. On August 18, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 131,700 tons, a - 2,000 - ton change from the previous week [6].

Group 1 - The integration of supply chains and the reshaping of trade patterns present new development opportunities for Hong Kong's trade, shipping, finance, and professional services [1][2] - Hong Kong's exports to Vietnam and Malaysia increased by over 50% and 30% respectively in the first half of this year, with ASEAN becoming Hong Kong's second-largest trading partner, rising from 12.1% of total trade in 2021 to 14.8% in the first half of this year [2] - The establishment of a "bulk commodity trading ecosystem" is progressing, with Hong Kong successfully joining the London Metal Exchange's global warehouse and delivery network, enhancing connections with active metal trading markets [2][3] Group 2 - The recognition of warehouses in Hong Kong by the LME improves the efficiency of non-ferrous metal allocation and reduces logistics time and costs, while stabilizing the supply of key metal resources in the region [3] - The trading and delivery activities of bulk commodities in Hong Kong will increase demand for related shipping services and promote the development of trade financing, insurance, risk management, and derivative financial services [3] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the establishment of multinational supply chain management centers, making Hong Kong a preferred platform for companies looking to expand internationally [4]

香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波17日发表网志称，供应链的整合和贸易形态的重塑，为香港的贸易、航 运、金融、专业服务等带来新的发展契机。此外，香港建设"大宗商品交易生态圈"的相关工作正稳步推 进，并将在年内公布推动香港发展成为国际黄金交易中心的相关方案。 陈茂波表示，国际地缘局势持续演变，美国关税措施将继续抑制环球贸易表现，而关税政策的不确定因 素则可能困扰企业信心、投资和供应链。宏观局势及科技变革虽然为经济前景带来了巨大挑战和不确定 性，却也同时存在庞大机遇。香港如果能抓紧机会，将经济转型过程中传统模式与新兴模式交替之间所 产生的张力，转化为促进经济升级转型的助力，将为香港创造新的增长点。 陈茂波以出口贸易为例，在地缘政治和关税战正重塑国际贸易格局和供应链布局的背景下，香港作为货 物的中转港，最近几个月的商品贸易均取得同比两位数的增长。这一方面固然反映部分出口商或赶在关 税战暂缓期间提前出货，但另一方面，亦折射出转变中的国际贸易格局，特别是区域贸易合作深化带来 的机遇。 数据显示，今年上半年，中国香港对越南和马来西亚的整体货物出口增幅分别超过五成和三成；而从这 两个地方进口的货值亦分别增长约七成和三成。东盟作为 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong is advancing its strategy to establish a commodity trading ecosystem, focusing on becoming an international gold trading center [1][3] - The Hong Kong government has formed a dedicated task force to review all aspects related to gold financial transactions and promote the development of an international gold trading center [1][3][4] - The Hong Kong International Airport is planning to expand its precious metal storage facilities to support the construction of an international gold trading center [3][4] Group 2 - The government aims to enhance gold storage facilities while expanding related financial services such as insurance, certification, and logistics, creating a comprehensive ecosystem for gold trading [4][6] - The demand for gold storage and trading in Hong Kong has significantly increased, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the need for secure storage options [6][7] - The establishment of an international gold trading center is seen as a new opportunity to reinforce Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is strategically positioning itself to become an international gold trading center, enhancing its status as a global financial, shipping, and trade hub [1][3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - The Hong Kong government has established a dedicated task force to review all aspects related to gold financial transactions, aiming to promote the development of an international gold trading center [1][3]. - The Hong Kong International Airport is planning to expand its precious metal storage facilities to support the establishment of international-grade gold storage [3][4]. - The government aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem for gold trading, including storage, insurance, certification, logistics, and related financial services [4][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Opportunities - There has been a significant increase in demand for gold storage, trading, and delivery in Hong Kong, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the desire for physical gold storage in various regions [3][7]. - The establishment of an international gold trading center is seen as a new opportunity to solidify Hong Kong's position as an international financial center [7]. - The recent launch of designated warehouses for gold trading in Hong Kong is expected to attract more international investors and increase the region's gold reserves [5][6].

2024年10月，香港特区行政长官李家超发表2024年施政报告，宣布以建设大宗商品交易生态圈、建立国 际黄金交易市场为抓手，巩固提升香港作为国际金融、航运、贸易中心的地位。 随后，一系列围绕黄金交易市场建设的布局相继落地。2024年10月21日，香港机场管理局发布消息称， 香港机场管理局正制定在香港国际机场扩建机场贵金属储存库的计划，以支持构建国际级黄金仓储设施 及将香港建设成国际黄金交易中心的措施。 香港机场管理局行政总裁张李佳蕙曾表示，过去数年，投资者对香港的黄金储存、交易及交收的需求大 幅攀升。香港国际机场为全球其中一个最繁忙航空枢纽，贵金属储存库位处机场的安全地点，一直是世 界各地投资者的理想储存设施，未来将继续发挥这重要作用。 2024年12月18日，香港特区政府宣布推动黄金市场发展工作小组正式成立，以全面检视与黄金金融交易 相关的各个范畴，推行建立国际黄金交易中心的工作，并就优化市场交易和监管机制、国内外推广等拟 定方案。 香港财库局局长许正宇指出，政府将推动构建国际级黄金仓储设施，在增加仓储的基础上，扩展保险、 检测认证、物流等相关配套金融业务，同步扩充抵押、借用、对冲等相关衍生交易，逐步搭建完 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong is advancing its strategy to establish an international gold trading center as part of its broader initiative to build a commodity trading ecosystem, enhancing its status as a global financial, shipping, and trading hub [1][2][4] - The Hong Kong International Airport Authority is planning to expand its precious metals storage facilities to support the development of an international gold trading center, responding to increased demand from investors for gold storage and trading [2][3] - The Hong Kong government has formed a working group to comprehensively review all aspects related to gold financial transactions, aiming to optimize market trading and regulatory mechanisms [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for gold is expected to remain high due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties, providing an opportunity for Hong Kong to develop its gold financial trading market [4] - The establishment of an international gold trading center is seen as a new approach to solidify and enhance Hong Kong's position as an international financial center, with plans to attract international gold spot trading [4][3] - The government aims to create a complete ecosystem for gold trading, including storage, insurance, certification, logistics, and related financial services, to facilitate comprehensive multi-currency trading and settlement [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is strategically positioning itself to become an international gold trading center, enhancing its status as a global financial, shipping, and trade hub [1][3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - The Hong Kong government has established a dedicated task force to review all aspects related to gold financial transactions, aiming to promote the development of an international gold trading center [3][4]. - Plans are underway to expand the gold storage facilities at Hong Kong International Airport, which is expected to support the construction of international-grade gold storage and enhance Hong Kong's role in the global gold market [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has initiated the establishment of designated warehouses for gold trading, which is anticipated to attract more international investors and increase Hong Kong's gold reserves [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Opportunities - The demand for gold is expected to remain substantial due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties, with many investors seeking to store physical gold in various regions, presenting an opportunity for Hong Kong to develop its gold financial trading [6]. - The government plans to expand related financial services such as insurance, certification, and logistics, while also enhancing derivative trading options like collateral, borrowing, and hedging to create a comprehensive ecosystem for gold trading [4][6]. - The establishment of an international gold trading center is viewed as a new approach to solidify and elevate Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [6].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - Hong Kong has assisted over 1,300 overseas and mainland enterprises in establishing or expanding their businesses, resulting in over HKD 160 billion in foreign direct investment and the creation of more than 19,000 new jobs from January 2023 to mid-2025 [1] - The local GDP has experienced growth for 10 consecutive quarters, with various economic indicators showing positive trends and vitality [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has welcomed 31 new listings in the first half of 2025, raising over HKD 884 billion, ranking first globally [2][3] Group 2: Financial Market Performance - The market capitalization of Hong Kong's securities market increased to HKD 42.7 trillion in the first half of 2025, a 33% increase year-on-year [3] - The number of registered funds reached 976, with a net inflow of over USD 44 billion, marking a 285% increase year-on-year [3] - Hong Kong's banking deposits exceeded HKD 18 trillion, reflecting a 19% increase compared to June 2022 [3] Group 3: Consumer Market Recovery - Visitor numbers to Hong Kong increased by 12% in the first half of 2025, totaling approximately 24 million [5] - Retail sales value in May 2025 was estimated at HKD 31.32 billion, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [5] - The Hong Kong Ocean Park saw a 19% increase in visitor numbers in May and June compared to the previous year, driven by the addition of new giant pandas [4] Group 4: Trade and International Relations - Hong Kong has signed 9 free trade agreements with 21 economies and 24 investment agreements with 33 economies, expanding its trade network [7] - The overall export value of goods from Hong Kong increased by 11.9% year-on-year in June 2025, marking 16 consecutive months of growth [8] - The establishment of a London Metal Exchange warehouse in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the efficiency of metal delivery in the Asian time zone [7] Group 5: Innovation and Development Initiatives - Hong Kong has launched several innovative measures, including a cross-border payment system and a digital asset development policy framework [3] - The government aims to enhance the breadth, depth, and efficiency of the financial market by encouraging new products and attracting new investments [3] - The Hong Kong government is optimistic about long-term prospects, with significant investments planned in real estate and aviation sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is strategically positioning itself to enhance its status as an international financial, shipping, and trading center by developing a commodity trading ecosystem, particularly focusing on gold and non-ferrous metals [2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - On October 16, 2024, Hong Kong's Chief Executive announced plans to build a commodity trading ecosystem and establish an international gold trading market [2]. - The Hong Kong Airport Authority is planning to expand its precious metals storage facilities to support the development of an international gold trading center [2]. - A working group led by the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury was established to review various aspects of gold financial trading, including supply and demand, product development, and cross-border cooperation [2][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals Initiatives - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has included Hong Kong in its global warehouse network for the storage of LME registered metals [3]. - As of May 2025, the number of LME-approved warehouses in Hong Kong has increased to seven, enhancing the region's capacity for metal storage and delivery [3]. Group 3: Tax and Regulatory Framework - The Hong Kong government is considering a proposal to halve the tax on eligible commodity trading activities, which could incentivize more trading in the region [3]. - The introduction of the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" aims to promote the tokenization of physical assets like gold and non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 4: Implications of Financial Technology - The integration of financial technology, including asset tokenization, is expected to enhance trading efficiency and liquidity in the commodity market [5]. - Tokenization allows for the digitalization and programmability of assets, lowering investment barriers and attracting more retail investors [5]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The developments in Hong Kong's commodity trading ecosystem could position it as a global liquidity center for commodity futures and spot trading, similar to New York and London [6]. - Strengthening connections with domestic markets and integrating with the digital renminbi ecosystem are essential for achieving these strategic goals [6].