市场分析普遍认为，美联储降息预期显著降温是本轮抛售的主要诱因。尽管美联储在上周宣布降息，但 主席鲍威尔对2026年1月是否继续降息态度模糊，强调政策将高度依赖后续经济数据，导致市场对宽松 前景信心减弱。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，1月维持利率不变的概率高达75.6%，而到3月仍不降息的 可能性接近50%。 【CNMO科技消息】12月15日，加密货币市场普遍下跌，比特币价格一度跌破88000美元关口，截至发 稿报87967.8美元，跌幅达2.48%。其他主流币种同步走低，以太坊下跌1.99%，SOL币跌2.9%，XRP币 跌2.35%，狗狗币和ADA币跌幅分别达3.72%和3.63%。 据Coinglass数据，过去24小时内，全网加密货币合约爆仓金额达2.7亿美元，涉及11.57万名投资者。其 中多头头寸爆仓2.3亿美元，空头爆仓3523.7万美元。最大单笔爆仓发生在Hyperliquid平台的以太坊合 约，价值485.42万美元。 机构方面，渣打银行大幅下调比特币价格预测。其全球数字资产研究主管杰夫·肯德里克表示，受近期 价格回调影响（自10月高点已跌约27%），该行将2025年底目标价从30万美元下调至 ...

全线下跌。 12月15日，比特币一路下行，盘中跌破88000美元，截至发稿，比特币报87967.8美元，跌幅2.48%。 除了比特币，以太坊跌1.99%，SOL币跌2.9%，XRP币跌2.35%，狗狗币跌3.72%，ADA币跌3.63%。 Coinglass数据显示，过去的24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓2.7亿美元，爆仓人数为11.57万人。其中，多单爆仓2.3亿美元，空单爆仓3523.7万美元。最 大单笔爆仓单发生在Hyperliquid-ETH，价值485.42万美元。 | 清算地图 指标 | | | 爆仓信息 多空比 资金费率 | | EV | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 実部 | BTC | ETH SOL | | XRP HYPE | | =Q | | 总爆仓 | | | | | | | | 1小时爆仓 | | 多单爆仓 | | 空单爆仓 | | | | $5910.2万 | | $5705.8万 | | $204.3万 | | | | 4小时爆仓 | | 多单爆仓 | | 空車爆仓 | | | | $1亿 | | $9899.3 ...

全线下跌。 12月15日，比特币一路下行，盘中跌破88000美元，截至发稿，比特币报87967.8美元，跌幅2.48%。 除了比特币，以太坊跌1.99%，SOL币跌2.9%，XRP币跌2.35%，狗狗币跌3.72%，ADA币跌3.63%。 | | ETH | 3056 | -1.99% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | $387.5亿 -1.1% | | | | | SOL | | | | | $71.2亿 +1.4% | 129.3 | -2.9% | | | XRP | 1.975 | -2.35% | | | $35.5亿 +4.0% | | | | | НУРЕ | | | | | $16亿 -0.4% | 28.95 | -1.64% | | | BNB | | | | | $13.3亿 -1.7% | 877 | -2.36% | | | DOGE | | | | | $13.1亿 +1.0% | 0.134 | -3.72% | | N | ZEC | 404.8 | -8.52% | | | $9.2亿 -10.8% | | | | | SUI | 1.55 | ...

全线下跌。 12月15日，比特币一路下行，盘中跌破88000美元，截至发稿，比特币报87967.8美元，跌幅2.48%。 除了比特币，以太坊跌1.99%，SOL币跌2.9%，XRP币跌2.35%，狗狗币跌3.72%，ADA币跌3.63%。 | 加密货币 | Hyperliquid | 指标 | AI | ETFs 逃顶清 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ETH | | | 3056 | -1.99% | | $387.5亿 -1.1% | | | | | | SOL | | | 129.3 | -2.9% | | $71.2亿 +1.4% | | | | | | XRP | | | 1.975 | -2.35% | | $35.5亿 +4.0% | | | | | | НУРЕ | | | 28.95 | -1.64% | | $16亿 -0.4% | | | | | | BNB | | | | | | $13.3亿 -1.7% | | | 877 | -2.36% | | DOGE | | | | | | $13.1亿 +1.0% | | | 0.134 | -3 ...

Group 1 - Global capital markets experienced a significant downturn, with declines in US stocks, gold, and silver on December 12, followed by a general drop in cryptocurrencies on December 14 [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $88,939.4, down 1.33%, with a market cap of $504.19 billion, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.04% to $3,077.86, with a market cap of $432.50 billion [2] - Over 92,000 liquidations occurred within 24 hours, indicating heightened volatility in the cryptocurrency market [2][3] Group 2 - There are two major uncertainties affecting the market: the unclear stance of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts in January and the potential nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair, supported by influential figures [4] - The probability of Walsh being nominated for Fed Chair increased by 17 to 24 percentage points in prediction markets, although Kevin Hassett remains the frontrunner with over 50% probability [5] - Market expectations indicate a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by January 2026, with a 75.69% probability of maintaining current rates, reflecting a cautious outlook on monetary policy [5] Group 3 - The upcoming central bank decisions from major economies, including the UK and European Central Bank on December 18, are anticipated to add further uncertainty to the market [6] - The Bank of Japan is expected to implement a significant interest rate hike, contrasting with the global trend of rate cuts observed over the past year [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the cryptocurrency market, with a recommendation to focus on companies involved in AI data centers and those with significant power reserves [4][25]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a slight recovery in sentiment, with the total market capitalization reaching $3.06 trillion, a 0.7% increase week-over-week. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have also seen increases of 1.0% and 2.0%, respectively [1][10]. - The report highlights a shift in regulatory frameworks globally, with the U.S. SEC indicating a transition towards on-chain financial markets and Japan planning to include cryptocurrencies under its securities regulatory framework [2][21]. - The trading volume on various platforms is showing mixed trends, with Polymarket reaching a record high of $1.3 billion in weekly trading volume, while Coinbase's trading volume has decreased by 15.8% [3][23][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.06 trillion, with Bitcoin closing at $90,270 and Ethereum at $3,084. The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of no further cuts in early 2026 [10][1]. - The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies is at 26, indicating a state of fear despite a slight improvement in market sentiment [11]. Global Policy and Industry News - The Hong Kong government is consulting on a framework for cryptocurrency asset reporting, aiming for legislative changes by 2026 [19]. - The U.S. SEC is moving towards a blockchain-based financial market, which is expected to enhance transparency and efficiency [21]. - Japan is planning to regulate cryptocurrencies under its securities laws, marking a significant shift in its regulatory approach [21]. Company News - Circle has received approval to operate as a currency service provider in Abu Dhabi and is launching a privacy-focused version of USDC [22]. - Coinbase plans to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on December 17, 2023, indicating a strategic expansion into new financial products [24]. - Tether is collaborating with HoneyCoin to promote digital assets in Africa, enhancing the accessibility of USDT payments [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on cryptocurrency mining companies with ties to Google and those with substantial power reserves, as well as trading platforms that are expanding into prediction markets and tokenized stocks [4][25].

尽管加密货币已对商业、计算机乃至政治领域产生深远影响，但截至2025年，这位以"中本 聪"（Satoshi Nakamoto）为化名的比特币疑似创始人，其真实身份依旧是未解之谜。更让一众身份追 查者倍感棘手的是，这位神秘人物（或者说，这个名字背后或许是一个团队？）早在2010年的今天便销 声匿迹，距今恰好十五载。 2010年12月，中本聪在比特币论坛上回复开发者关于"区块容量优化"的讨论，此后再无公开动态。但 2011年4月，一封疑似来自其账户（satoshi@vistomail.com）的邮件被发送给了比特币早期开发者麦克・ 赫恩。邮件开篇算是对自己的销声匿迹作出了些许解释，第一句便是："我已转投其他事业，比特币如 今已有足够多优秀的开发者接手，无需我再参与。"这句简短的告别，让中本聪的身份更添一层神秘色 彩。 这位比特币创始人的成名时刻，定格在2008年11月1日的一篇论文发布之时。当天，一篇长达九页的 《比特币：一种点对点的电子现金系统》被分享至一个名不见经传的加密货币邮件列表。这篇论文的划 时代意义在于，它攻克了困扰密码学家数十年的双重支付难题。中本聪提出了一套基于区块链技术的公 共账本方案，能够有效 ...

Core Viewpoint - MSCI is considering the exclusion of digital asset treasuries (DATs) from its indexes, which has caused significant concern within the crypto community, especially after JP Morgan's mention of "Operation Chokepoint" [1] Group 1: MSCI's Role and Index Methodology - MSCI is a major index provider with over $18 trillion in ETFs and institutional assets linked to its benchmarks, emphasizing investor protection in its index methodology [2] - The approval of an asset for inclusion in MSCI's indexes carries substantial influence, raising questions about whether DATs meet the necessary benchmarks [2] Group 2: The Rise of Digital Asset Treasuries - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) was the first significant player in the Bitcoin treasury space, transitioning from a software business to a leveraged BTC investment under Michael Saylor's leadership [3] - The share price of MSTR increased over 3,000% from its first Bitcoin purchase in August 2020 to its peak in June 2025, prompting other companies to enter the DAT market [4] - The number of corporate entities holding DATs surged from 4 in 2020 to 142 by October 2025, with over half established in the current year [4] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Digital Asset Treasuries - Many new corporate entities acquired crypto under less favorable conditions compared to Strategy, with some issuing secured debt that imposes stricter collateral requirements [5] - The recent crypto market downturn has significantly impacted DATs, reducing their combined market cap from $176 billion in July to approximately $99 billion by mid-November, with many trading below their net asset values [6] - Early investors in DATs are experiencing losses as stock prices decline amid the market sell-off [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 相关研究 放量上涨，微盘调整 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 摘要。2025 年 12 月 12 日周五，A 股市场回暖上涨，成交额 2.12 万亿创近一个 月新高；国债期货市场全线调整；商品指数微涨，焦煤延续弱势。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场回暖，放量上涨，微盘连续调整 回暖上涨，微盘连续调整。今日 A 股核心指数集体反弹，成长类指数表现更优。 上证指数低开后震荡回升，收盘报 3889.35 点，涨幅 0.41%；深证成指报 13258.33 点，涨幅 0.84%；创业板指收于 3194.36 点，涨幅 0.97%。科创 50 指数表现突 出，上涨 1.74%，或反映硬科技板块情绪升温。 ...

智通财经APP注意到，一些分析师本周指出，在周五进行的年度成份股调整中，比特币囤积巨头Strategy(MSTR.US)可能面临被纳斯达克100指数剔除的风 险，这源于对其商业模式的质疑，该质疑已对其股价造成压力。 Strategy最初是一家软件公司，但在2020年转向比特币投资。今年早些时候，其市值在一轮火热上涨中达到1280亿美元的峰值，并于去年12月被纳入纳斯达 克100指数的科技子类别。这一决定曾受到一些市场观察人士的质疑，他们认为这种催生了数十家模仿者的先驱商业模式，更像一只投资基金。 Strategy报告称，截至9月30日的三个月实现净利润27.8亿美元，而上年同期为亏损3.402亿美元。这主要得益于一项会计变更，使其可以将所持比特币的升值 确认为收益。与此同时，这家公司的传统软件业务收入仅为1.287亿美元。 折线图显示了过去两年中Strategy和比特币的表现 指数成份调整受到密切关注，因为它们决定了哪些公司能受益于数十亿美元的被动投资者资金流。不过，Strategy创始人迈克尔·塞勒总体上淡化了对可能被 指数剔除的担忧，其他一些分析师也表示，他们预计纳斯达克周五不会删除Strategy。 盈 ...