Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, enterprises and residents collectively received approximately 20.05 trillion yuan in funding, with bank loans (including write-offs and ABS) amounting to about 12.93 trillion yuan, corporate bond financing at 1.42 trillion yuan, and net fiscal expenditure contributing 5.61 trillion yuan. The analysis indicates that the financing demand from the real sector remains weak, and the efficiency of fund circulation between enterprises and residents is low, prompting increased counter-cyclical fiscal measures [1][2][3] Funding Sources and Uses - The total funding sources for the real sector in the first seven months of 2025 are similar to 2023 levels but significantly higher than 2024. The loan increment in 2025 shows slight growth compared to 2024 but is notably lower than 2023. Fiscal net expenditure is significantly higher than in 2023-2024, indicating enhanced counter-cyclical fiscal efforts amid disappointing economic recovery [2][3] - The contribution of loan increments to total funding sources from 2023 to 2025 is 77.6%, 75.4%, and 64.5%, while the contribution of fiscal net expenditure increments is 16.0%, 22.7%, and 28.0% respectively [2] Fund Flow Trends - The proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits has decreased, while the proportion flowing into financial investments has increased from 2023 to 2025. The flow to resident deposits was 53.9%, 53.7%, and 48.2% respectively, with the share of time deposits also declining [3] - The scale of funds flowing into financial investments was 6.13 trillion yuan, 10.86 trillion yuan, and 9.95 trillion yuan from 2023 to 2025, accounting for 29.8%, 65.2%, and 49.6% of total funding sources [3] Deposit Migration Analysis - The efficiency of fund circulation in the real sector has not improved, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits. The historical high proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits since 2022 is attributed to weak consumer confidence, leading to a decline in consumption and investment willingness [7][8] - The migration of deposits is driven by low interest rates and capital market performance, with the latter being the core driver. The current trend of deposit migration is expected to continue if the capital market remains favorable [16][19] Regional Deposit Contributions - The eastern coastal regions, particularly Jiangsu and Zhejiang, have contributed significantly to the increase in resident deposits, indicating that higher-income groups are more likely to invest rather than consume [24][27] - The wealth management awareness among residents in first-tier cities is expected to facilitate the flow of deposits into equity markets, especially as high-interest term deposits mature in 2025-2026 [25][27]

转自：中国证券报 编者按 居民存款的"迁徙"轨迹实则是观察中国经济发展的微观窗口。我们将镜头拉近，对准银行营业网点、券 商分支机构、公募基金，共同感知"存款搬家"背景下，A股市场的活跃度。 近日，A股市场交投明显活跃。身处券商业务第一线的营业部和分公司，最能感知A股市场的温度。8月 19日，中国证券报记者走访了位于上海、北京的多家券商营业部和分公司。 上述分支机构均表示，8月份新开户数量明显增长，但尚不及2024年"924"行情时的规模；新开户投资者 以80后、90后、00后群体为主；存量客户追加投资的意愿比较强烈。与此同时，分支机构工作人员迎 来"忙季"，即使在午休和周末时段，也要轮流加班、值班，以应对突然增加的业务量。 ● 林倩 刘英杰 谭丁豪 分支机构新开户数明显增长 近期A股市场火热，吸引了一批新投资者开户入市。 兴业证券上海天钥桥营业部业务部总经理柳江斌对中国证券报记者表示，其所在的营业部8月份以来新 开户数增幅明显，环比增长在200%至300%。相比以前，客户咨询数量也变多，能明显感受到客户与理 财顾问之间的交流增多。 "新开户数明显增长反映出投资者信心增强，新资金入场也为当前市场注入了活力。"华 ...

编者按 东方证券北京某营业部投资顾问周驰（化名）表示，近段时间新开户情况明显转好，现在每天能新开几 十户。一些新客户看到市场具有赚钱效应，就慢慢开始关注A股。 国金证券相关负责人也表示，在本轮A股行情中，公司累计新开户数较去年同期增长明显，此前3月份 达到今年以来单月新开户数峰值，与交易所公布的A股新开户数变动趋势保持一致。除新客户之外，存 量客户的活跃度也随着行情上涨不断提升。 央行最新数据显示，2025年7月，居民存款减少1.11万亿元，而非银行业金融机构存款大幅增加2.14万亿 元，这表明居民投资行为正呈现逐渐活跃趋势。 居民存款的"迁徙"轨迹实则是观察中国经济发展的微观窗口。我们将镜头拉近，对准银行营业网点、券 商分支机构、公募基金，共同感知"存款搬家"背景下，A股市场的活跃度。 近日，A股市场交投明显活跃。身处券商业务第一线的营业部和分公司，最能感知A股市场的温度。8月 19日，中国证券报记者走访了位于上海、北京的多家券商营业部和分公司。 上述分支机构均表示，8月份新开户数量明显增长，但尚不及2024年"924"行情时的规模；新开户投资者 以80后、90后、00后群体为主；存量客户追加投资的意愿比较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting a recent pullback after a significant rise, and the cautious sentiment among retail investors despite the ongoing "slow bull" market trend [3][4][7]. Market Performance - On August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.12% and 0.17%, respectively. The total trading volume was 2.64 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 170 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3][4]. - Since July, A-share indices have been on a continuous upward trend, with trading activity in the Shenzhen market surpassing previous highs from the "924 market" and early 2023 [6]. Retail Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are exhibiting a cautious approach, with many expressing a reluctance to enter the market aggressively. This contrasts with the exuberance seen during previous bull markets [4][8]. - Analysts note that the participation of retail investors is lower than during the "924 market" and previous bull markets in 2015 and 2020. The current market is primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors [7][8]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market rise, there has been no significant influx of retail funds. Publicly offered equity funds have not seen a substantial increase in new issuances, indicating a lack of confidence among retail investors [7][8]. - The article highlights a shift in household savings, with a reported increase of 10.77 trillion yuan in household deposits in the first half of 2025, suggesting a potential flow of funds into the stock market [11]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for the A-share market, predicting that the current "slow bull" trend could persist until at least 2027. The focus should shift towards company performance and valuations rather than solely on liquidity-driven market movements [12][13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent A-share market has shown a slow bull trend, attracting more investors as deposit rates decline, leading to a potential restart of fund investments [1][5] - As of August 19, A-share indices experienced a slight decline, but trading volume remained high, with a total turnover of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [2] - The A-share market capitalization has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with significant trading activity and record highs in various indices [1][2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have become the main source of incremental funds in the current market, with a notable increase in new account openings and small order net inflows [3][6] - The trend of retail investors moving funds from other safe assets into the stock market has been observed, indicating a shift in investment preferences [6][7] - The potential scale of household deposits entering the market is estimated to be between 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan, which could exceed previous market cycles [7] Group 3: Financial Sector Performance - The banking sector has been a key driver of the market, with significant increases in market capitalization, particularly for major state-owned banks [4] - Agricultural Bank of China has reached a market capitalization of 2.24 trillion yuan, becoming the largest bank by market value [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The decline in deposit rates has led to a noticeable shift in household savings towards the stock market, with a significant reduction in fixed-term deposits [5][6] - The overall liquidity environment and macroeconomic expectations will influence the sustainability of the current market trend [5][7]

Group 1 - The potential scale of funds from residents' deposits entering the market is estimated to be around 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan, which may exceed the scale of deposits entering the market during previous bull markets in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 [1][8] - The recent A-share market has shown signs of a slow bull market, with a significant increase in search interest for "bull market" on social media, indicating growing investor attention [1][2] - In July, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.96 million, reflecting a strong interest from retail investors, with net inflows from small orders increasing significantly [3][6] Group 2 - The current market rally is primarily driven by retail investor sentiment and foreign capital inflows, with insurance funds providing long-term support [3][5] - The banking sector has been a highlight, with Agricultural Bank of China reaching a market capitalization of 2.24 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [4][5] - The trend of residents' deposits moving towards the stock market is becoming more pronounced, with a notable decrease in fixed-term deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits [6][7] Group 3 - The overall market is expected to remain active, with potential for accelerated rotation, influenced by the progress of residents' financial migration and the global liquidity environment [6][8] - Historical data shows that during previous asset shortages, excess savings were significantly consumed in real estate and stock markets, indicating a pattern that may repeat [8] - The current environment of declining deposit rates and increased market activity suggests a shift in investor behavior, with a focus on equities over traditional savings [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][38]. Core Insights - From January to July 2025, the total funds obtained by enterprises and residents amounted to approximately 20.05 trillion yuan, with bank loans (including write-offs and ABS) contributing about 12.93 trillion yuan, corporate bond financing at 1.42 trillion yuan, and fiscal net expenditure at 5.61 trillion yuan. The increase in deposits from residents was 9.66 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by approximately 194.7 billion yuan [4][5]. - The analysis indicates that the financing demand from the real sector remains weak, and the efficiency of fund circulation between enterprises and residents is low. The government has intensified counter-cyclical adjustments [4][5]. - The trend of "deposit migration" towards wealth management products is expected to continue into the first half of 2024-2025, driven by factors such as the reduction in deposit interest rates. Since July 2025, with improved macroeconomic narratives, capital market performance has strengthened, leading to an increase in risk appetite and a shift of deposits towards equity markets [4][20]. Summary by Sections Funding Sources and Flows - In the first seven months of 2025, the total funding sources for the real sector were similar to 2023 levels but significantly higher than 2024. The loan increment for 2025 showed slight growth compared to 2024 but was notably lower than 2023. Fiscal net expenditure was significantly higher than in 2023-2024, indicating increased government intervention in response to economic recovery falling short of expectations [5][6]. - The proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits decreased from 53.9% in 2023 to 48.2% in 2025, while the flow towards financial investments increased significantly, indicating a shift in investment behavior [6][7]. Deposit Migration Analysis - The efficiency of fund circulation in the real sector has not improved, with a notable increase in "non-bank" deposits. The historical trend shows that low interest rates and capital market performance are key drivers of deposit migration [10][16]. - The migration of deposits is expected to continue, particularly towards higher-risk asset allocations rather than consumption, as consumer confidence remains subdued due to income instability and other factors [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current macroeconomic conditions and the ongoing deposit migration towards financial products, it is recommended to focus on undervalued quality cyclical stocks for excess returns in the second half of the year. Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [35].

Core Viewpoint - Recent signs indicate that household deposits are gradually flowing into the stock market, driven by factors such as declining interest rates, rising stock markets, and regulatory policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, new household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, the highest level since 2015 [1] - The current "deposit migration" phenomenon is more pronounced from the household sector, with funds likely flowing more into the stock market compared to previous instances [1][2] - The trend of household deposits becoming more regularized has shown a turning point, with fixed-income products not being reinvested after maturity, indicating potential market entry funds [3][5] Group 2: Financial Product Shifts - There has been a noticeable slowdown in the growth of fixed-income financial products, while equity-based public funds and private securities investment funds have seen a rebound, reflecting a shift in risk appetite among residents and enterprises [5][6] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan in July, while bank wealth management saw a decrease of nearly 1 trillion yuan, suggesting that funds are moving into brokerage margin accounts [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Approximately 4.25 trillion yuan of excess household savings remain unreleased, which could flow into the capital market if risk appetite continues to improve [6][7] - An estimated 105 trillion yuan of time deposits will mature by 2025, and if a portion flows into the stock market, it could significantly impact liquidity [7]

更多关注上市公司业绩和估值，也许居民财富逐步中长期配置资本市场和A股慢牛会同步实现。 继18日创下十年新高之后，8月19日，沪指早盘继续冲高，但午后反复走弱，三大指数翻绿。截至收 盘，沪指跌0.02%，深成指跌0.12%，创业板指跌0.17%，全天成交额2.64万亿元，较上个交易日缩量超 1700亿元，2982只个股上涨，2252只个股下跌。 "我相信这并非本轮行情的终极高点，走长牛不需要每天都涨停。"一位投资者在股吧中写道。 19日的回调似乎在意料之中，就在18日，已有多个财经博主、炒股大V在直播间里提醒回调风险，但有 趣的是，这些炒股"带头人"并不建议大家追高，与去年"924行情"启动之时"锣鼓喧天，鞭炮齐鸣"的态 度截然相反。 这也与部分散户目前的理性态度形成了共鸣。"稳定情绪，等待市场给出答案，不轻仓，也不满仓。"另 一位投资者称。 散户"畏高"踌躇中 自7月份以来，A股主要指数就开始了连续上涨，市场交投热度回升，资金表现活跃。以深市为例，据 第一财经统计，今年7月份，深市无论是成交笔数抑或成交金额均超过去年924行情以及今年2、3月份的 DeepSeek行情。 数据显示：7月份，深市股票成交笔数为1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in capital flow from bank deposits to the A-share market, driven by declining deposit rates and a strong stock market performance, leading to increased investor confidence and participation [2][3][5]. Group 1: "Deposit Migration" in Progress - Resident deposits have decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from banks to brokerage margin accounts [6]. - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, while the total resident deposits reached 160 trillion yuan, with nearly 75% being time deposits [6]. - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of time deposits between 2025 and 2026 is expected to release substantial funds into the stock market, enhancing liquidity [6]. Group 2: Surge in A-share Account Openings - In July, approximately 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, marking a year-on-year increase of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [7]. - The majority of new accounts were opened by individual investors, particularly younger generations (those born in the 1990s and 2000s), who are becoming a significant force in the market [7][8]. - Factors driving this surge include market performance, policy support, low interest rates, and innovations in trading channels that make it easier for young investors to participate [8]. Group 3: Transition from "Speculative Market" to "Allocation Market" - The reduction in household deposits and the increase in new accounts create a closed loop, with a significant portion of funds likely flowing into wealth management and then back into the stock market [9]. - The influx of new accounts suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, where retail investors may transition from speculative trading to long-term investment strategies, such as ETF investments [10]. - The presence of younger investors may increase market volatility in the short term but could also foster innovation and development in the capital market [10].