Workflow
美国经济衰退
icon
Search documents
【笔记20250410— 决战到天亮】
债券笔记· 2025-04-10 12:48
以天和周为单位看待收益的人,相信的是奇迹与运气。 以月和季为单位看待收益的人,相信的是天赋与能力。 以年为单位看待收益的的人,相信的是自然规律。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250410— 决战到天亮(-美暂停多数国家关税90天+美对中关税提高至125%+3月通胀数据偏弱-股市表现偏强+资金面均衡宽松=中上)】 资金面均衡宽松,长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展659亿元7天期逆回购操作,今日有2234亿元逆回购到期,净回笼1575亿元。 资金面均衡宽松,资金利率回落,DR001下至1.65%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阿购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率支努 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.68 | 53 | | 2.22 | | 57430. 66 ...
高盛火速废除衰退基线预测,萨默斯:远没脱离险境 鲁比尼:美联储不会救
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-09 23:45
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months but retracted this forecast shortly after [1] - Goldman Sachs has frequently revised its recession expectations, raising the probability from 20% to 35% just a week prior, and then to 45% [2] - Notable economist Nouriel Roubini believes the U.S. will avoid recession, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year after tariff-related disputes ease [2] Group 2 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that the economy is still in danger, criticizing the current administration's strategies and highlighting potential losses for middle-class families due to tariffs [2] - Market reactions have been volatile, with significant stock market gains following Trump's comments on tariffs, including a more than 9% rise in the Nasdaq and over 10% increases in stocks like Apple and Nvidia [1] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic impacts from new tariffs, with traders speculating on multiple rate cuts in the near future [2]
1小时变脸!高盛“变脸王”刷新纪录
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-09 23:32
当地时间4月9日,高盛发布衰退预期报告,预计美国未来12个月衰退的可能性为65%。但大概一个小时过后 (特朗普宣布暂停关税声明后),高盛又迅速作废了这一预期,目前预计美国经济的衰退概率为45%。 但分析师们仍然认为政策的不确定性会导致今年美国经济急剧放缓。 "今天早些时候,在特朗普总统宣布这一消息之前,我们已经转向衰退基线,以应对今天上午生效的针对特定 国家的额外关税,但我们现在恢复到之前的非衰退基线预测。"由Jan Hatzius领导的高盛团队周三在一份说明中 表示。 这一快速逆转凸显了分析师和投资者在试图估计美国政府贸易政策对经济的影响时所面临的挑战,因为贸易政 策有时每小时都在发生变化。 他们说:"这一公告保留了之前的所有关税和对等关税中10%的最低税率,我们仍预计将以25%的税率对特定行 业征收额外关税。这些关税加在一起,可能会接近我们之前的预期。" 他说:"现在的情况是,我们从非线性风险变成了更线性风险。这让我们松了一口气,但这并不是任何人都能 敲响'万事大吉钟'的情况。" 花旗集团的经济学家周三下午也发出了类似的警告。 "暂停(对大部分贸易伙伴的)对等关税并不意味着美国经济避免了增长放缓和通胀上升 ...
美联储卡什卡利暗示:让FOMC降息的门槛仍然很高
news flash· 2025-04-09 21:41
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari indicates that the threshold for FOMC rate cuts remains high, highlighting concerns over tariffs potentially driving U.S. inflation [1] Economic Conditions - Dramatic changes in the economic landscape have been observed as of April 9 [1] - The latest developments may lead to a slight decrease in U.S. inflation [1] - Uncertainty in the economic environment raises the risk of a U.S. recession [1] Employment Market - Numerous companies are reportedly slowing down their hiring activities [1] - Tariffs are expected to impact the U.S. job market negatively while simultaneously increasing inflation [1]
高盛:美国经济衰退风险高达65%
news flash· 2025-04-09 17:42
高盛发布衰退预期报告:预计美国未来12个月衰退的可能性为65%。 ...
摩根大通模型:一项关键股指显示美国经济衰退概率接近80%
news flash· 2025-04-08 20:59
摩根大通模型:一项关键股指显示美国经济衰退概率接近80% 智通财经4月9日电,摩根大通表示,与美国经济密切相关的股票消化的经济衰退概率已飙升至近80%。 与此同时,尽管资金压力可能加剧,但信用产品投资者仍保持乐观。根据摩根大通基于市场的经济衰退 指标仪表盘,在最近的抛售中遭受重创的罗素2000指数目前反映出的经济衰退可能性达79%。其他资产 类别也在发出警告:标普500指数显示经济衰退的可能性为62%,基本金属显示的概率为68%,5年期美 债对应的概率为54%。相比之下,投资级信用市场消化的经济衰退概率仅为25%,而去年11月时这一概 率为零。"作为一个更具周期性的指数,罗素2000应更能反映美国经济在周期中的位置,目前该指数消 化的平均程度经济衰退概率高达80%,"摩根大通策略师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou表示,"市场几乎100%消 化了温和衰退的情境。" ...
美国经济衰退警告升级,多家A股公司宣布回购 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-08 17:56
Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 from 1.7% to 0.5%, citing risks from trade wars, tightening financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - JPMorgan has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 60%, predicting that the economy will enter a recession starting in June, with the weakest months occurring mid-year [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that unless the White House abandons its tariff plans or the Federal Reserve shows signs of easing, investors should prepare for further declines in the S&P 500 index [1] Trade Policy Impact - The implementation of high tariffs under Trump's administration may disrupt the profitability of many goods, forcing traders to explore other markets or significantly raise prices [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering legal action against the Trump administration regarding the tariff dispute, reflecting the concerns of its members about rising import costs and lost export markets [3][4] Industrial Growth - In the first two months of the year, 19 out of 27 cities with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan reported industrial growth rates surpassing the national average of 5.9% [5] - Cities like Xi'an, Hefei, and Yantai showed remarkable industrial growth rates of 16.4%, 13.4%, and 10.2% respectively, driven by emerging industries [5][6] BYD Performance - BYD expects a first-quarter profit of 8.5 to 10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.04% to 118.88% [9] - The company produced 1.057 million new energy vehicles in the first quarter, a 72.64% increase year-on-year, with overseas sales growing approximately 110% [9][10] Consumer Lending Trends - As of April 7, 2024, 12 out of 23 listed banks reported double-digit growth in consumer loans, with the Bank of Communications leading with a 90% increase [11][12] - The expansion of consumer loans is seen as a response to stimulate market demand, although it raises concerns about rising default risks among younger borrowers [12] Market Reactions - A significant number of A-share companies, including CATL, announced share buybacks to stabilize market sentiment amid trade war fears [13][14] - The stock market showed a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.58%, driven by optimism in agriculture and consumer sectors [15][16]
华尔街齐声警告美国经济衰退风险
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-08 04:14
作 者丨周蕊 向秀芳 编 辑丨和佳 尽管白宫坚称不会在关税问题上让步,特朗普却在不同场合表达出"愿意对话"的意愿,前后 不一的态度令市场更为迷茫。与此同时,美国参议院正推进一项旨在限制总统关税权力的跨 党派法案,白宫对此表示强烈反对,称该法案将削弱总统维护国家安全的能力。 随着不确定性持续发酵,金融机构纷纷发出预警。 花旗、高盛等多家机构已提醒客户关注未 来几周政策落地进展,以及特朗普政府是否会在政治压力下调整立场。摩根大通近日表示, 预计美国经济将在今年陷入衰退。该行首席经济学家Mi c h a e l Fe r o li预计,美联储最早将在6 月开始降息,并在今年余下的几次议息会议中持续调整政策利率。摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙也 呼吁尽快解决由关税引发的贸易不确定性。 全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(Bl a c kRo c k)首席执行官拉里·芬克(La rr y Fi n k)则表示: 美国经济正在迅速走弱,多个行业已开始感受到实际冲击,企业高管普遍认为美国事实上已 处于衰退边缘。芬克透露,他与多位大型企业CEO沟通后发现,绝大多数高管认为当前美国 经济已处于衰退状态,部分行业如航空、旅游的需求下降已成为明 ...
深夜大乌龙!美股巨震,白宫辟谣!A50拉升,“国家队”再出手
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-07 15:35
作 者丨吴斌 王应贵 编 辑丨张星 李莹亮 金珊 4月7日,美股低开后冲高,纳指一度涨超4%,随后回落震荡,截至北京时间2 3 : 0 8,道指下跌超3 9 0点,跌幅为1 . 0 2%。 消息面上,据央视新闻报道,当地时间4月7日,有多家美媒报道称,白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示,美国总统特朗普正考虑对部 分国家暂停征收9 0天关税。 受此消息影响,美股由跌转涨。据核实,哈塞特当天在接受福克斯新闻采访时的原话是"总统会做出他要做的决定",并未明确"特朗普正考虑 对部分国家暂停征收9 0天关税"。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特称这是"假新闻" 。由此,美股再次由涨转跌。 热门科技股方面涨跌不一,其中,英伟达涨近4%,苹果、特斯拉跌超2%。 | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 98.040 | 3.96% | | --- | --- | --- | | NVDA.O | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 519.750 | 2.98% | | META.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 175.790 | 2.80% | | AMZN.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET) | ...
36万亿不还了?特朗普想让中国买单,中方毫不惯着,反击说到就到
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-04 21:57
Group 1 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of November 21, 2024, marking a record high, with a rapid increase from $35 trillion in just over three months [1] - The rising national debt is attributed to a significant reduction in fiscal revenue and high government spending, with a fiscal deficit reaching $1.8 trillion annually and an upward trend expected [1] - Increased costs associated with social security and healthcare, along with the interest on the national debt, contribute to the growing debt burden, which shows no signs of stabilizing [1] Group 2 - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a historical low of $760.1 billion by October 2024, marking a significant shift in its investment strategy [3] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, including Japan and the UK, has sparked discussions about global capital flows and the status of the U.S. dollar [3] - Japan's reduction of $27.3 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in December 2024 brings its holdings down to $1.0598 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt despite the decrease [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed uncertainty about the economy avoiding recession during Trump's presidency, highlighting the unpredictable nature of economic forecasts [5] - Concerns about a potential recession are growing, with the U.S. stock market experiencing significant sell-offs and consumer confidence declining [8] - Economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicate a decrease in expected growth to 1.7%, while inflation predictions are on the rise, leading to warnings from economists about an impending recession [8]