尽管近期美国经济数据表现尚可，但是高盛警告不要过早放松警惕，美国经济真正的负面冲击可能在5- 6月才会显现。从较长期的角度来看，美元结构性贬值将成为大趋势。 4月27日，高盛分析师Rikin Shah在最新研报中称，目前美国硬数据仍然坚挺，劳动力市场也没有显示迫 在眉睫的危险信号，加上潜在的关税协议可能给市场带来缓解。但市场还远未脱离险境，因为关税政策 给美国经济带来的负面影响，可能要到5月中旬或6月初才会更加明显地显现。高盛给出的理由如下： 美国消费者的提前采购可能会提振3月和部分4月的消费支出数据，这一现象已经开始显现。 同时，疲软招聘比大规模裁员更可能成为就业市场的关键变量，这意味着失业救济申请数据 可能不如往常那样具有指示意义。 报告指出，政策不确定性高企，消费者和企业信心处于低点，高盛仍然认为美国在未来12个月内陷入衰 退的概率为45%。 高盛还认为，考虑到关税的广泛性和单边性，美国企业和消费者将成为价格的接受者，如果供应链或消 费支出短期内相对缺乏弹性，美元还会贬值。 不确定性极高 关税影响挥之不去 高盛认为，目前正处于一个非常困难的时期，不确定性极高：1、不知道关税谈判的最终结果；2、不知 道关 ...

近期，据美国《纽约时报》援引一位知情人士的话说，赫格塞思在一个包括他的妻子、兄弟和私人律师在内的信息群中分享了3月美军计划袭 击也门胡塞武装的细节，这个群聊称作"防务团队会"，且同样使用了"信号"应用。 特朗普（资料图） 虽然特朗普认为，他随时能让鲍威尔走人，但实际上，只要鲍威尔不主动递交辞呈，特朗普暂时还真没辙。用鲍威尔的话说就是，特朗普没有 将他免职的权力。有很多美国专家认为，如果特朗普真的做到了将鲍威尔免职，美国市场就会出现震动。可以肯定的是，美联储不会对特朗普 认怂。接下来，鲍威尔将与特朗普展开一场漫长的较量，两人都不会轻易认怂，但无论如何，最终赢家只有一个，结果不是特朗普对美联储让 步，就是鲍威尔对白宫妥协。 日前，特朗普在其个人社交平台"真相媒体"上公开发文，用三个词痛骂美联储主席鲍威尔："又一个、典型的、完全的'混乱'"。两天后，白宫 传出风声：特朗普团队正研究如何解雇鲍威尔。这场白宫与美联储的公开决裂，撕开了美国经济政策溃烂的伤疤。 特朗普（资料图） 别看鲍威尔表面上八风不动，22号当天芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在芝加哥大学演讲时，特意把1987年格林斯潘刚上任就碰上股灾的案例拿出来 讲。这故事华 ...

Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Travel Plans - Only 46% of Americans plan to travel this summer, a decrease from 53% last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [1][2] - Among those not planning to travel, 65% cite financial reasons, with 68% specifically mentioning high daily living expenses as a concern [2][3] - The percentage of respondents uncertain about their travel plans increased from 18% in 2024 to 23% this year [2] Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Travel - Concerns over tariffs and potential economic recession are leading to a more cautious approach to summer travel among Americans [1][2] - A report from Bank of America indicates that domestic accommodations, flights, and travel activities are below previous years, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence [1][4] - Low-income households are cutting travel spending more significantly than wealthier families, who may opt for international travel instead [5] Group 3: International Travel Decline - Interest from international travelers, particularly from Canada and Western Europe, is decreasing due to U.S. trade policies and border issues [6][7] - Canadian visitors to the U.S. dropped by 12.5% in February and 18% in March, while visitors from the UK and Germany also saw a decline of approximately 30% [7] Group 4: Airline Industry Response - Airlines like United Airlines and Delta Airlines reported first-quarter earnings that met or exceeded expectations but anticipate a weaker outlook for 2025 due to declining travel demand [10] - United Airlines provided two profit forecasts for the year, one assuming a recession, predicting adjusted earnings per share between $7 and $9 [10] - There has been a reduction in flight schedules due to decreased demand, with bookings for flights originating in Europe and Canada down by 6% and 9% respectively [10]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple U.S. states have filed lawsuits against the Trump administration's tariff policies, claiming they are illegal and that the president lacks the authority to impose such tariffs [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Actions - Eleven states, including New York and California, have initiated lawsuits in the U.S. International Trade Court to block the implementation of new tariffs [1]. - New York Attorney General Letitia James stated that the president does not have the power to arbitrarily raise taxes, which is a central argument in the lawsuits [1]. - California's Governor Gavin Newsom has also filed a lawsuit, marking the first state-level challenge against Trump's tariff policies [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The trade conflicts initiated by the Trump administration have led to a decline in consumer confidence, rising inflation expectations, and a significant risk of economic stagnation or recession in the U.S. [4][5]. - Michigan University's data shows that U.S. consumers' inflation expectations for the next year have risen to 6.7%, the highest level since 1981 [5]. - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's model indicates that the U.S. GDP is projected to shrink by 2.2% in the first quarter of the year [5]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, estimates a 65% probability of recession due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [6]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the U.S. economy is very close to recession, with various economic and political factors potentially leading to a situation worse than a recession [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and the implications for the stock market and government debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Low Probability of Inflation Due to Tariffs**: The likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs is low, as imported goods account for only 16% of consumer spending, and goods only represent 25% of the core CPI, with services dominating at 75% [1][17][13]. 2. **Economic Recession Concerns**: The potential for a "deep" recession is linked to private sector leverage during prosperous times, rather than tariffs. Current government debt expansion does not indicate a private sector crisis [1][31]. 3. **Trump's Focus on Bond Yields**: Trump's actions suggest a concern for U.S. Treasury yields rather than stock market performance, especially following a significant rise in bond yields [1][35]. 4. **Historical Context of Tariffs and Inflation**: Historical analysis indicates that high tariffs in the 1930s did not lead to inflation, as consumer income did not rise correspondingly, leading to a reduction in other spending [5][7]. 5. **Impact of Globalization**: The slowing of globalization since 2018 has diminished the U.S. economy's influence on the global economy, leading to a weaker dollar and underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to other markets [2][52][56]. 6. **Service Consumption Impact**: Rising commodity prices primarily affect service consumption, as consumers may cut back on services when faced with higher prices for goods [58]. 7. **Debt Dynamics**: The current trajectory of U.S. government net interest payments is increasing at a rate faster than in the 1980s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [39][38]. 8. **Future Corporate Debt Maturities**: A significant amount of corporate debt is set to mature starting in 2025, which could impact market dynamics [42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The rigid nature of consumer spending on goods means that even if tariffs increase prices, overall consumption may not rise significantly due to income constraints [13][5]. 2. **Historical Precedents of Economic Downturns**: The analysis of past economic downturns shows that significant declines in the S&P 500 often correlate with private sector leverage and government debt dynamics [29][31]. 3. **Global Economic Interdependence**: The increasing reliance of economies on domestic fiscal measures rather than global trade could lead to greater divergence among nations [60]. 4. **Comparison with Japan's Economic History**: The historical performance of Japan's stock market during its economic challenges offers insights into potential future trends for the U.S. market [63][64].

花旗集团首席经济学家Nathan Sheets周二表示，由于美国经济受到特朗普对贸易伙伴征关税的影响，美 国经济衰退的概率在40%至45%之间。Nathan Sheets预计，受消费者在关税生效前抢购商品的推动，美 国第二季度GDP将实现增长，但预计关税对美国经济增长的最大影响将在今年下半年显现。 在特朗普本月初宣布对进口商品大规模加征关税所谓"对等关税"后，美股反应激烈。标普500指数本月 以来已跌近6%，年初至今更是累跌约15%。尽管此后的关税政策变化和美国与其他经济体的谈判迹象 帮助缓解了投资者的担忧，并推动美股出现反弹，但Pimco坚持认为，美国经济衰退的风险仍然很高， 主要是由于供应链紧张。 Pimco表示，鉴于几十年来的工业衰退，美国不太可能迅速取代失去的中国制造业产出。该公司在近期 的一份投资者报告中表示："我们认为，美国经济衰退的可能性仍然很高，接近于抛硬币，这取决于美 国供应链是否能够相当迅速地从中国转向其他生产来源，而这一过程不会是无缝衔接的。"该公司警告 称，除非企业能够有效地实现生产多样化，否则特朗普政府关税措施引发的混乱可能继续严重拖累经济 增长。 除了Pimco之外，近期还有其他市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar is entering a prolonged downtrend, with foreign investors reassessing the risk-reward profile of dollar-denominated assets as US Treasury and stock prices decline [1][2] - Kamakshya Trivedi believes that the dollar will continue to weaken, with the trend expected to deepen, particularly against the euro and potentially the yen [2] - Trivedi highlights that the risk of recession in the US is exceptionally high, leading foreign investors to reevaluate the prospects of US assets, including stocks [2][3] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching an inflation-adjusted historical high of over $3,500 per ounce, indicates a shift away from dollar assets towards safer investments [3][5] - Central bank demand for gold is rising, suggesting a desire to diversify away from dollar assets, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce due to stronger-than-expected demand [5][6] - If central bank purchases average 100 tons per month, gold prices could reach $3,810 per ounce by the end of 2025, with potential ETF inflows pushing prices even higher [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing concerns regarding the U.S. economy, particularly in light of President Trump's criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his calls for interest rate cuts, suggesting that the U.S. economy is gradually heading towards a downturn [1] Economic Predictions - Citibank has issued a pessimistic forecast, predicting significant economic weakness in the U.S. by June, which may compel the Federal Reserve to initiate its first interest rate cut of the year, potentially leading to as many as five rate cuts [3] - Upcoming reports from S&P Global focusing on the performance of the U.S. service and manufacturing sectors in April will provide critical insights into the economic outlook, especially considering the recent imposition of a 10% tariff on nearly all imports [3] Labor Market and Inflation - Citibank forecasts that the current unemployment rate of 4.2% will continue to rise, with the next unemployment data set to be released in the first week of May, serving as a key indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation with inflation slightly above its 2% target, while the tariff policy poses risks of further inflationary pressures amidst economic and labor market recession concerns [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - Citibank's economists believe that the Federal Reserve will prioritize the health of the economy and labor market over strict adherence to inflation targets, suggesting a more dovish stance may emerge as data is released before June [4] - Even with a significant rate cut of 1.25 percentage points, Citibank's economists express skepticism about the ability to fundamentally reverse the economic downturn, predicting the federal funds rate could drop to a range of 3% to 3.25% by the end of 2025 [5] - There is a divergence in expectations between Citibank and Wall Street, with the latter anticipating only three rate cuts this year, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [5] Political and Economic Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve represents a clash between political and economic policies, with Trump advocating for rate cuts to mitigate the economic damage from trade wars, while the Federal Reserve seeks to balance inflation stability and economic growth [5]

预判美国经济陷入衰退还"言之过早"。（CNBC） 迪士尼董事会主席James Gorman：（美国总统特朗普挑起的）一系列关税贸易战已经构成冲击。 ...

"几乎不会出现通货膨胀，但经济可能会放缓，除非'太迟先生'（即鲍威尔）、这个大输家现在就降低利率。"当地时间周一，特朗普在社交平台上写 道。 这已经是欧洲央行降息后，特朗普第三天公开呼吁美联储跟进降息。特朗普此番猛烈炮轰鲍威尔，同时以不降息就会威胁经济发展相要挟，要求美联 储立即降息。 受特朗普言论影响，市场对美联储独立性及经济前景的担忧加剧。 4 月 21 日，美元指数大幅下跌，一度跌破 98 关口，创下 2022 年 3 月以来的 新低。即便是 4 月 22 日，有所回暖，但依旧在 98 左右徘徊。 美股则在经历了＂黑色星期一＂后， 4月22日开盘终于有了小幅回升 ， 道指开盘涨1.1%，标普500涨1.0%，纳指涨1.2% 。 而有避险属性的黄金价格则一路狂飙， 4 月 22 日，现货黄金价格突破 3500 美元 / 盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨幅超 2.2% ，本月以来累计涨幅 更是超过 12% 。 外界普遍认为，特朗普持续要求美联储降息的举动，实质是为可能出现的经济疲软提前撰写 "问责剧本"——一旦美联储未能迅速响应降息，他便会 将贸易战引发的经济疲软归咎于对方。 但特朗普政府自身的经济政策才是美国经 ...