Core Viewpoint - The solid economy has provided the Federal Reserve with time to decide on the next steps for interest rate adjustments [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions are strong, allowing the Federal Reserve to evaluate its monetary policy options [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. Due to the release of US tariff policies with high tax rates and the EU's response to impose additional counter - tariff measures on $72 billion worth of US imported goods if trade negotiations fail, there is still high uncertainty as of the current date. Risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to US CPI data tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - related Information - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, 100% secondary tariffs will be imposed on Russia. US officials clarified that in addition to the 100% tariff, secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries purchasing Russian goods [2] - The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil requested the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days. Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - tariff decree regarding US tariffs [2] - The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods [1][2] - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering implementing zero - tariff policies on more US imported products [2] - The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Interest Rate - related Information - Trump believes that the Fed should lower interest rates below 1%. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset thinks the Fed should remain independent but is "very wrong" on the tariff issue. Fed's Harker believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [2]

根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率已升至94.8%。这一数据较此前有所 上升，显示出市场对美联储短期内保持现有货币政策的强烈预期。 据悉，美联储7月降息25个基点的概率仅为5.2%。这一概率的微小变化反映出市场对美联储即将到来的 政策决策有着相对明确的判断。 与此同时，美联储9月的利率决策预期呈现更大的不确定性。维持利率不变的概率为36.9%，而累计降 息25个基点的概率达到60.0%。累计降息50个基点的概率相对较低，为3.2%。 委员会成员表示，经济前景的不确定性虽有所减弱，但仍然居高不下。在考虑进一步调整利率区间的幅 度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估后续经济数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡状况。 美联储的这一政策立场反映出其对当前经济形势的审慎评估。维持利率不变有助于支持经济复苏，并避 免过快的利率调整对市场产生冲击。 来源:金融界 这种概率分布表明市场普遍认为美联储可能在秋季开始调整货币政策。从近期数据变化来看，7月14日 时美联储维持利率不变的概率为93.3%，而到7月15日这一概率已上升至94.8%。 美联储在最近公布的会议纪要中明确表示，将继续维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，美联储应将利率降至1%以下。 ...

美国股市已重回历史高位附近。接下来的一周，更为繁忙的经济和财报日程将为投资者提供更多需要关 注的信息。首先，周二公布的CPI数据将为本周的经济议程定下基调。CPI将是投资者和政策制定者需 要考量的重要数据指标，而美联储的下一次利率决策将在不到两周的时间内到来。美股最新财报季也将 于本周拉开序幕。 财报季来袭，银行股打头阵 在财报方面，美股最新财报季将于本周拉开序幕。跟以往一样，所有美国主要银行本周都将首先公布业 绩。投资者对华尔街IPO和并购市场的热情再度高涨，其中，富国银行(WFC.US)摆脱了长达十年更为严 格的监管限制这一情况也可能会成为关注焦点。 对于华尔街银行的最新财报，大摩指出，资本市场已重新活跃起来，预计股票交易将十分活跃，投资银 行业务收入将高于管理层的预期；其次，由于近期的压力测试后资本要求有所降低，大摩预计管理层将 开始公布股票回购计划及管理缓冲措施的相关情况。 与此同时，奈飞(NFLX.US)的财报将拉开美国大型科技公司财报季的序幕，阿斯麦(ASML.US)和台积电 (TSM.US)也将公布有关人工智能相关芯片热潮的重要进展。百事公司(PEP.US)、强生(JNJ.US)、美联航 (UA ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests it is time to consider adjusting interest rates [1] Group 1 - Daly indicates that the current economic conditions warrant a reassessment of interest rate policies [1] - The statement reflects a broader sentiment within the Federal Reserve regarding potential changes in monetary policy [1] - This consideration comes amid ongoing discussions about inflation and economic growth [1]

波兰央行官员Wnorowski：2025年可能只会进行一次利率调整。九月份可能再次将利率下调25个基点。 ...

当地时间7月9日，美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%，创历史新高；道琼斯 工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 据央视新闻报道，美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25% 至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活动继续稳步扩 张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。与会者一致认为，经济前景的不 确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 为支持其目标，委员会同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。与会者一致认为，在考虑 进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的幅度和时机时，委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及 风险平衡。与会者一致认为，会后声明应重申其坚定承诺，既要支持充分就业，又要使通胀率回归委员 会2%的目标。 在评估适当的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监测未来信息对经济前景的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that some participants believe the most appropriate path is to refrain from interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Some Federal Reserve members expressed that the likely appropriate course of action is to not lower interest rates in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bank Negara Malaysia has cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points from 3% to 2.75%, marking the first rate adjustment in two years and the first rate cut in five years [1] - The central bank's statement indicates that global economic growth continues, supported by consumer spending and some degree of consumer credit, despite uncertainties from global tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][6] - The article highlights that while domestic demand and export growth are expected to support economic activity in Malaysia, the risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside due to global trade slowdown and weak market sentiment [4] Group 2 - Malaysia's inflation rates for the first five months of the year averaged 1.4% for overall inflation and 1.9% for core inflation, with expectations for moderate inflation through 2025 due to controlled global cost conditions and limited domestic demand pressures [4] - The performance of the Malaysian Ringgit will continue to be driven by external factors, with the country's strong economic outlook and structural reforms providing lasting support for the currency [5] - The central bank emphasizes that the rate cut is a preemptive measure aimed at maintaining stable growth in Malaysia amidst external uncertainties, despite a solid domestic economic foundation [6]