Core Insights - The Chicago Fed labor market indicator has been introduced to provide alternative insights into the labor market amidst the absence of government data, indicating stability in the job market despite some concerns about payroll job creation [1][5][6] Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.36% in October, with a 40% probability of being higher and a 20% probability of being lower [2] - The labor market indicators suggest stability, with low hiring and low firing rates, which is atypical for the beginning of recessions [9][10][18] - Total payroll job creation has shown substantial deterioration, raising questions about its reliability as a business cycle indicator [6][7] Economic Environment - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and their impact on businesses, contributing to a cautious outlook on the job market [11][14] - Despite strong GDP numbers and consumer spending, there are concerns about potential job market weakening, particularly for new graduates facing hiring challenges [15][17] Inflation and Rate Cuts - The lack of private sector information on inflation during the government shutdown raises concerns about potential inflation issues developing unnoticed [13] - The current environment of low hiring and low firing may complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding rate cuts [12][13]

Group 1 - The Bank of England decided to maintain the key interest rate at 4% with a narrow vote ahead of the autumn budget announcement, reflecting a cautious approach [1] - Five members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the rate unchanged, while four members favored a 25 basis points cut, indicating a divided opinion among policymakers [1] - The consensus suggests that the Bank of England may consider rate cuts as early as December, responding to expected inflation cooling and a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The UK inflation rate remained steady at 3.8% for the third consecutive month, which the Bank of England believes may have peaked, indicating a potential anti-inflation trend [1] - The Oxford Economics analysis highlighted that most Monetary Policy Committee members are more concerned about the risks of cutting rates too quickly rather than too slowly [2] - In the European market, bond yields showed mixed movements, with German and Italian bond yields generally rising, while UK bond yields fell following the Bank of England's announcement [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting the impact of recent economic changes on market dynamics and investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investment banking is experiencing a shift due to rising interest rates, which are affecting deal-making activities and valuations [1] - There is an increasing focus on sustainable finance, with more banks integrating ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors into their investment strategies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Major investment banks reported mixed earnings in the last quarter, with some showing resilience while others faced challenges due to market volatility [1] - The demand for advisory services in mergers and acquisitions remains strong, despite a slowdown in initial public offerings (IPOs) [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the investment banking sector will continue to adapt to changing economic conditions, with a potential rebound in IPO activity as market conditions stabilize [1] - There is an expectation for increased competition among banks to capture market share in the growing sustainable finance space [1]

8月美国总统特朗普突然抛出消息，说要把美联储理事莉萨·库克赶下台，说她搞了房贷作弊。这一下子 把原本就不安分的美联储又推到风口浪尖。可总统能轻轻松松解雇一名理事？没那么简单。 库克其实是拜登任命的独立理事，本来可以干到2038年，而特朗普这么做，大家都明白他心里盘算着什 么。 他希望美联储放松利率，政策上能听他的，这样他的人将来在里面说话有分量，利率怎么调也由他把 控。 文案|编辑：凤梨 库克的一举一动成了市场和媒体眼里的风向标。她要是真被换下去，后果不只是职位问题，更关系到美 联储还能不能和政治分开，关系着美国老百姓兜里的钱会不会因为政治而被折腾。 处在风暴中心的库克并没有对外讲自己被"解雇"这事，而是直接聊起美国的经济现状。她提到美国的就 业市场已经开始吃紧了，很多黑人失业率又涨了，她盯着这些数据不放。 但说到通胀，她又非常坚定地表示，现在利率够用了，再乱调反而打乱局面。她这一番话不是一头倒向 哪一边，是在给美联储里分歧越来越大的两拨人打个"平手"。 有些人急着降息，觉得物价上涨是短期现象，不降息就怕就业糟糕到底；而另一些人铁了心要抗住，坚 持生活成本高得让人喘不过气，绝不能轻易放水。 库克没就这样认了， ...

技术层面上，美元兑加元在1.4050上方维持强势结构，短期均线呈多头排列，14日相对强弱指数 （RSI）位于50上方，显示多头动能仍在。若汇价突破1.14102阻力位，有望进一步上探1.4150及1.4200 关口；反之，若跌破1.4000支撑，则可能测试1.3960及1.3920区域。 摩根士丹利外汇策略主管表示："当前汇率走势充分反映了市场对利差的重新定价。只要美联储保持谨 慎态度，而加拿大继续宽松，美元兑加元仍有进一步上行空间。" 行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆表示，降息旨在帮助加拿大经济应对来自美国关税的不确定性，同时保持通胀接近 2%的目标。他补充称，若经济前景出现重大变化，央行将准备采取进一步行动。目前市场普遍认为， 尽管年内降息周期或暂告一段落，但在2026年仍有进一步宽松的可能。 美元兑加元技术分析 周三（11月5日)美元兑加元亚洲时段延续升势至1.4115，因投资者下调对美联储12月降息的预期，同时 国际油价疲软打压加元。美联储主席鲍威尔上周发表鹰派言论，强调降息尚未确定，推动美元走强。另 一方面，加拿大央行连续降息且油价承压，令加元表现低迷。 上周，美联储宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%-4. ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently trading at 0.6510, with a decline of approximately 0.31% over five consecutive trading days [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% during the November policy meeting, indicating a non-dovish stance despite the decision being in line with market expectations [1] - Recent inflation forecasts suggest that inflation will remain above target levels for several years, with core inflation not expected to return to the 2-3% target range until the end of 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter increased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 3.0% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations of 0.8% and 2.7% respectively [1] - The August CPI year-on-year jumped to 3.5%, surpassing the previous value of 3.0% and the market expectation of 3.1%, which has reduced market expectations for a rate cut by the RBA [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is in a rectangular consolidation pattern, with recent price action breaking below the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6535, suggesting weakened short-term price momentum [2] - Key support is identified at the psychological level of 0.6500; a break below this level could lead to a decline towards the lower boundary of the rectangular range at approximately 0.6460, and potentially test the five-month low of 0.6414 [2] - Resistance is noted at the 9-day EMA of 0.6535; a breakout above this level could strengthen bullish momentum, pushing the AUD/USD towards the significant level of 0.6600 and the upper boundary of the rectangular range at around 0.6630 [2]

Australia's central bank has today left its cash rate steady as expected at 3.6%, saying it was cautious about easing further given higher inflation, firmer consumer demand and a revival in the housing market.Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said recent data suggested inflationary pressures could remain in the economy, adding that it would update its view as data evolves.Markets had seen little chance of a rate cut this week following an uncomfortably hot reading on third- ...

澳洲联储在声明中表示，近期数据显示（包括更强劲的经济增长、顽固的通胀以及依然紧张的劳动力市 场）表明经济的潜在产能比此前预期更有限。这些指标呈现出金融环境的复杂图景，与政策目前接近中 性估值的判断一致。委员会的判断是，9月季度核心通胀率的上升部分归因于临时性因素。 新华财经北京11月4日电澳洲联储周二如预期维持现金利率在3.60%不变，该行今年已在2月、5月和8月 三次降息。澳洲联储预计，核心通胀将持续高于目标区间至2026年年中，原因是消费需求和房价增长速 度快于预期，限制了进一步降息的空间。 汇丰银行澳大利亚分部首席经济学家Paul Bloxham表示，澳大利亚第三季度的通胀数据出人意料地大幅 上升，从根本上改变了官方利率的前景。人们原本希望核心通胀率正朝着央行2%-3%目标区间的中点前 进，但事实却相反，核心通胀率正在上升。他补充称，通缩动能已完全停滞，澳洲联储没有进一步削减 现金利率的空间，下次利率调整很可能在2027年初迎来加息。 澳洲联储称，今天的利率决议是一致通过的。委员会一致认为保持谨慎是恰当的，并将根据数据变化更 新对前景的看法。澳洲联储预测现金利率到2025年底为3.6%，2026年6月为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction remains unclear, with differing forecasts among officials regarding interest rate cuts and economic risks [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Lisa Cook supports the recent rate cut but emphasizes that downside risks to employment outweigh inflation risks, while maintaining that the current restrictive policy is necessary due to inflation exceeding the 2% target [2]. - San Francisco President Mary Daly highlights the need to reduce inflation while supporting the job market, advocating for a modestly restrictive policy that does not harm employment [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austin Gulby indicates that the criteria for a rate cut in December are more stringent compared to October, reflecting a cautious approach among Fed officials [4].

In her first public comments since President Trump tried to fire her, Cook largely reinforced views outlined last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. ...