Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and six other departments have jointly developed the "Shanghai Action Plan for Optimizing the Departure Tax Refund Consumption Environment (2025-2027)" to establish Shanghai as a benchmark city for departure tax refunds with a well-structured network of outlets, diverse product offerings, and excellent customer service [1] - By 2027, the plan aims to have over 3,000 departure tax refund stores and more than 10,000 outlets, with over 80% of stores offering "buy and refund" services and over 80% of commercial hubs having centralized refund service points [1] - The departure tax refund consumption scale is expected to quadruple compared to 2024, with the share of domestic brand tax refund sales increasing to over 30% [1] Group 2 - The plan includes increasing the supply of high-quality domestic brand products, such as time-honored brands, smart products, intangible cultural heritage products, and sports goods [2] - The convenience of departure tax refunds will be enhanced by installing smart terminals, expanding refund channels, and introducing verification convenience measures [2] - The action plan specifies that foreign travelers can apply for departure tax refunds if they purchase tax refund items worth 200 yuan in the same store on the same day, with the cash refund limit for "buy and refund" raised to 20,000 yuan [2]

Core Insights - A new trend of "China Shopping" is emerging as foreign tourists flock to China to take advantage of favorable shopping conditions and tax refund policies [1][2][3] - The upgraded tax refund policy, which lowers the minimum refund threshold and increases the cash refund limit, significantly enhances the shopping experience for foreign visitors [1][4][7] Tax Refund Policy Enhancements - The tax refund policy has been expanded from 10 pilot cities to nationwide implementation, with the minimum refund threshold reduced from 500 RMB to 200 RMB and the cash refund limit increased from 10,000 RMB to 20,000 RMB [1][4][7] - The "immediate refund" service allows tourists to receive tax refunds at the point of purchase, streamlining the process and enhancing customer satisfaction [4][5][11] Impact on Consumer Behavior - The immediate refund service has led to a 22-fold increase in tax refund processing in pilot areas, significantly boosting sales in tax refund stores [4][6] - The tax refund rate for general goods is approximately 11%, effectively providing foreign tourists with a 9% discount on their purchases [2][4] Market Growth Potential - In 2024, the total expenditure of inbound travelers is projected to reach 94.2 billion USD, reflecting a 77.8% increase, indicating substantial growth potential in inbound consumption [2][14] - The share of inbound traveler consumption in China's GDP is about 0.5%, suggesting significant room for growth compared to other major countries where this figure ranges from 1% to 3% [2] Retail Environment and Consumer Experience - The establishment of centralized tax refund points in major cities allows tourists to process refunds from multiple stores in one location, enhancing convenience [11][12] - The number of tax refund stores has increased significantly, with over 5,196 stores now available, providing a wider range of products for tourists [7][9] International Appeal and Policy Synergy - The combination of tax refunds, visa-free entry, and mobile payment options has made "China Travel" and "China Shopping" increasingly popular among international tourists [15][16] - Recent policy changes, such as extending visa-free transit periods and expanding the number of eligible ports, further enhance the attractiveness of China as a shopping destination [15][17]

Group 1 - The launch of the "immediate refund" tax refund point at Haiya City marks the further integration of Shenzhen's core business district tax refund service network [1][3] - From January to May this year, the sales of tax refund goods in Shenzhen increased by 2.1 times year-on-year, with "immediate refund" goods sales growing over 20 times [3] - The "immediate refund" policy is expected to enhance the international influence of the business district, attracting more international tourists and visitors from Hong Kong and Macau [3] Group 2 - Haiya City has established a comprehensive tax refund service system, opening 27 "immediate refund" stores covering various product categories, including international brands and local tech products [3] - The new tax refund process allows overseas travelers to receive refunds immediately after shopping, significantly reducing waiting times compared to traditional tax refund methods [3] - Haiya City aims to continuously optimize the tax refund process, enrich product offerings, and enhance service standards to create a friendly, convenient, and efficient shopping environment [3]

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices rebounded year-on-year yesterday and have been in a volatile trend recently [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices continued to decline [2] Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PTA, PX, and polyester decreased [3] Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities declined seasonally [4] - Service: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4] Market Pricing - Agricultural credit spreads have rebounded slightly recently [5] Industry Credit Spreads | Industry | Last Year | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery | 102.36 | 80.56 | 60.94 | 57.09 | 25.81 | 0.00 | | Mining | 38.94 | 46.31 | 39.57 | 37.35 | 34.86 | 4.90 | | Chemical | 74.08 | 66.20 | 51.92 | 49.18 | 46.66 | 0.00 | | Steel | 46.13 | 55.63 | 46.92 | 47.48 | 45.28 | 8.10 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 45.99 | 55.48 | 52.12 | 49.42 | 47.24 | 7.80 | | Electronics | 65.47 | 73.03 | 65.42 | 54.62 | 52.29 | 1.90 | | Automotive | 62.40 | 48.88 | 41.44 | 39.92 | 37.08 | 0.00 | | Household Appliances | 44.95 | 48.00 | 46.60 | 47.10 | 45.67 | 11.10 | | Food and Beverage | 44.62 | 45.57 | 36.28 | 37.12 | 35.05 | 1.40 | | Textile and Apparel | 53.88 | 52.14 | 52.04 | 52.65 | 50.47 | 5.70 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 51.66 | 200.14 | 149.91 | 146.32 | 140.66 | 7.10 | | Pharmaceutical Biology | - | 70.86 | 62.08 | 53.47 | 50.74 | 1.20 | | Necessities | 29.89 | 33.12 | 27.14 | 27.41 | 25.37 | 5.10 | | Transportation | 31.83 | 36.27 | 30.91 | 30.25 | 28.24 | 3.80 | | Real Estate | 232.48 | 146.23 | 101.32 | 100.80 | 95.16 | 0.50 | | Commercial Trade | 47.29 | 50.47 | 42.95 | 42.17 | 39.54 | 2.10 | | Leisure Services | 80.77 | 110.81 | 120.10 | 118.95 | 117.51 | 93.90 | | Banking | 31.25 | 27.05 | 18.83 | 18.64 | 15.98 | 1.30 | | Non-bank Finance | 30.86 | 34.30 | 29.98 | 30.08 | 27.97 | 5.00 | | Comprehensive | 72.39 | 48.02 | 42.55 | 41.37 | 39.32 | 0.40 | | Building Materials | 40.15 | 45.82 | 38.38 | 37.31 | 34.14 | 3.80 | | Building Decoration | 44.57 | 53.79 | 60.04 | 51.32 | 49.56 | 11.10 | | Electrical Equipment | 57.19 | 85.69 | 80.21 | 72.51 | 73.08 | 33.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 34.79 | 43.22 | 43.32 | 44.40 | 43.66 | 24.20 | | Computer | 68.04 | 65.47 | 49.65 | 46.60 | 43.96 | 0.00 | | Media | 249.31 | 46.75 | 39.22 | 37.92 | 35.66 | 0.00 | | Communication | 35.73 | 32.75 | 24.50 | 29.10 | 29.42 | 8.50 | [47] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot Price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 2367.1 | 0.61% | - | | | Spot Price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/3 | 5.6 | -3.46% | - | | | Spot Price: Palm Oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 8744.0 | 2.15% | - | | | Spot Price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 15199.8 | 1.30% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/3 | 20.3 | -0.10% | - | | | Spot Price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 81021.7 | 2.71% | - | | | Spot Price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 22400.0 | 0.70% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Spot Price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 20870.0 | 1.21% | - | | | Spot Price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 122933.3 | 0.41% | - | | | Spot Price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 17100.0 | 0.16% | - | | Black Metals | Spot Price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 3104.0 | 1.43% | - | | | Spot Price: Iron Ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 720.2 | 0.62% | - | | | Spot Price: Wire Rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 3292.5 | 1.54% | - | | | Spot Price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/3 | 14.0 | 0.94% | - | | Non-metals | Spot Price: Natural Rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 13858.3 | -0.14% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/3 | 825.5 | -0.44% | - | | Energy | Spot Price: WTI Crude Oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/3 | 67.5 | 3.90% | - | | | Spot Price: Brent Crude Oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/3 | 69.1 | 2.11% | - | | | Spot Price: Liquefied Natural Gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 4062.0 | 1.75% | - | | | Coal Price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 727.0 | 0.14% | - | | Chemical | Spot Price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 5031.3 | -1.02% | - | | | Spot Price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 7466.7 | -0.60% | - | | | Spot Price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 1829.0 | 0.35% | - | | | Spot Price: Soda Ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 1252.5 | -6.36% | - | | Real Estate | Cement Price Index: National | Daily | - | 7/3 | 136.7 | -0.80% | - | | | Building Materials Composite Index | Daily | Points | 7/3 | 111.8 | 1.31% | - | | | Concrete Price Index: National Index | Daily | Points | 113 | 96.4 | -0.87% | - | [48] Policy Focus Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focuses on promoting the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry and aims to address low-price and disorderly competition [1] Service Industry - Shanghai plans to optimize the duty-free shopping environment for outbound tourists, aiming to increase the number of duty-free shops and consumption scale by 2027 [1]

Group 1: Cultural Industry and International Expansion - The Zhejiang Provincial Secretary Wang Hao emphasized the importance of promoting cultural exports, particularly in online literature, web series, and online games, referred to as the "new three samples" [1] - The market size for online literature exports is projected to exceed 5 billion RMB in 2024, with overseas users reaching over 350 million [1] - The actual sales revenue of independently developed Chinese games in overseas markets is expected to reach 18.557 billion USD in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.39% [1] Group 2: Policy Support and Initiatives - The Zhejiang provincial government has outlined measures to support the internationalization of the gaming industry, aiming to cultivate high-quality 3A game projects and create an industry cluster for game exports [2] - The Chinese government has called for the orderly opening of the internet and cultural sectors, aiming to enhance international cultural exchanges and cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed developing a comprehensive industry chain for game exports, from IP creation to overseas operations [3] Group 3: Economic Growth and Cultural Output - The gaming industry is recognized as a new engine for cultural output and economic growth, with various provinces, including Guangdong, implementing policies to enhance the competitiveness of their gaming industries [3] - The cultural "new three samples" are expected to accelerate their international expansion due to collaborative efforts from multiple stakeholders [3]

Core Insights - Shenzhen has officially launched an electronic refund channel for outbound tax refunds, allowing global inbound travelers to process refunds easily using Alipay [1] - The city aims to become a benchmark for outbound tax refunds, with over 1,000 refund stores established [1] - Shenzhen has the highest number of outbound tax refund ports and the most diverse types of refund stores in the country [1]

上海市商务委等六部门：优化离境退税服务环境 下调离境退税起退点、提高现金退税限额 智通财经7月3日电，上海市商务委等6个部门印发《上海市优化离境退税消费环境行动方案（2025-2027 年）》 。其中提出，优化离境退税服务环境。下调离境退税起退点。同一境外旅客同一日在同一退税 商店购买退税物品金额达到200元人民币，可以申请办理离境退税。提高现金退税限额。同一境外旅客 同一日在同一退税商店购买退税物品申请'即买即退'退税限额上调至20000元人民币，覆盖国际品牌、 高端电子产品等高单价商品需求。 ...

上海市商务委等6个部门印发《上海市优化 离境退税消费环境行动方案（2025-2027年）》 。其中提 出，增加离境退税商店数量。在大型商圈、步行街、 旅游景区、度假区、文博场所、机场、客运 港 口、酒店、体育场馆等增设退税商店，全面覆盖境外游客集中的购物中心、百货商店、品牌专卖店、机 场商店等，重点拓展旅游景区商店、古镇沿街商店、文博场所纪念品商店、文创产业园特色商店、主题 乐园购物商店、星级宾馆内设商店、国际赛事体育场馆周边商店等。引导在展览场所注册经营的商店申 请成为离境退税商店，将离境退税服务覆盖至展会。在16个区全覆盖基础上，推动离境退税商店开 展"即买即退"业务，有条件的商店设立"即买即退"集中退付点，推动"即买即退"集中退付点扩围。 ...

上海市商务委等6部门：到2027年上海市离境退税商店超3000家、网点超10000个 智通财经7月3日电，上海市商务委等6个部门印发《上海市优化离境退税消费环境行动方案（2025-2027 年）》 的通知，其中提出，到2027年，上海市离境退税商店超3000家、网点超10000个，"即买即退"商 店占比超80%，商业集中场所设立集中退付服务点的占比超80%，在入境人员消费相对集中的中心城 区，实现离境退税商店全覆盖。离境退税消费规模比2024年翻两番，国产品牌退税销售额占比提升至 30%以上，更好地把入境流量转化成消费增量，有效扩大入境消费，畅通国内国际双循环，提升上海国 际消费中心城市能级。 ...

Group 1 - Guangzhou has launched its first "immediate refund" centralized refund point for departure tax at Tianhe District's Tianhuan Plaza, enhancing the efficiency of the tax refund process for foreign travelers [1] - The "immediate refund" model allows international travelers to receive their tax refunds on-site after making purchases, significantly reducing the time required for the refund process to just a few minutes [1] - The centralized refund point is designed to connect various commercial entities in the Tianhe Road business district, creating a comprehensive international consumer service network [1] Group 2 - The "citywide refund" feature of the Tianhuan Plaza centralized refund point integrates scattered service resources, breaking geographical limitations within the business district [2] - Following the implementation of the "immediate refund" policy, there has been a noticeable increase in foot traffic at the shopping mall, indicating a positive impact on consumer behavior [2] - A total of 10 stores in Guangzhou have launched the first batch of "one order, one package" convenience services for departure tax refunds, enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [2] Group 3 - Since the announcement of the optimized departure tax policy by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments in April, Guangzhou has implemented various measures to improve departure tax services, including lowering the threshold for tax refund applications to 200 yuan [3] - The total number of departure tax refund stores in Guangzhou has exceeded 500, with over 160 new stores added, achieving full coverage across 11 districts [3] - The issuance of departure tax refund application forms has increased by 203% year-on-year, while the sales amount has risen by 129% year-on-year since the new policy was implemented [3]