美联储穆萨莱姆：美国经济有潜力，劳动力市场稳定，通胀有所缓解，但高于2%的目标。 ...

摩根大通(JPM.N)CEO戴蒙：不会排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性。 ...

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading at $3185.15 per ounce, down $54.51 or 1.68% year-on-year, with a high of $3251.82 and a low of $3153.99 [1] - Federal Reserve's Bostic expects one rate cut this year due to uncertainty [1] - Powell indicates the Fed is adjusting its policy framework, with zero interest rates no longer a baseline scenario, and anticipates April PCE to drop to 2.2% [1] Group 2 - Barclays has revised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. from -0.3% to 0.5%, no longer expecting a recession in the second half of 2025 [1] - Technical analysis shows diminishing bullish momentum in gold prices, with increasing bearish strength indicated by MACD and RSI indicators [1] - Key support level for gold is at $3060 per ounce, while resistance is at $3285 per ounce, suggesting potential trading strategies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the current suspension of certain tariffs between the US and countries like China is expected to drive a new wave of imports, maintaining high resilience in US investment and consumption in Q2 [1] - Overall, the US economy is projected to remain supported in Q2, with the impact of tariffs likely to gradually manifest in the second half of the year. Early implementation of tax reduction policies could mitigate downward pressure [1] - Under the current tariff scenario, it is anticipated that the US will not experience runaway inflation due to the imposition of additional tariffs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to rush into interest rate cuts in the short term, with projections indicating that the 10-year US Treasury yield will remain above 4.0% [1]

供应紊乱可能会打压经济增速，并推高通胀。 美联储理事Barr：美国经济稳健，但贸易问题给前景蒙上阴影。 ...

美联储巴尔：美国经济基础稳固，通胀率有望降至2%，但贸易政策的不确定性影响了前景展望。 ...

Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly observed significant economic performance disparities across different regions in the U.S., with Las Vegas concerned about reduced international tourism, while states like Utah and Alaska maintain robust economic activity [3] - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a "divided" state regarding the economic outlook, with Daly expressing optimism about the economy's strength and declining inflation, while Vice Chair Jefferson warns of declining confidence among businesses and households [3] - Jefferson highlighted that if Trump's tariff policies continue to escalate, it could hinder the decline in inflation and potentially lead to rising prices again, indicating increasing uncertainty within the Fed regarding future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3155.90 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.78%, with a daily high of $3195.60 and a low of $3150.90 [4] - The short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified between $3358 and $3368, while support levels are noted between $3130 and $3140 [4]

Economic Growth - The US economy shows resilience with a 2.8% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2024, down from 3% in Q2, indicating stable expansion despite challenges [3] - Consumer spending, a key growth driver, is slowing due to high interest rates and cautious sentiment, while sectors like technology and healthcare are performing well [3] - Economic recovery is uneven across regions, with urban centers rebounding quickly while rural areas and small towns struggle due to insufficient investment and slow job creation [3] Inflation - Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.6% over the past 12 months as of October 2024, up from 2.4% in September [5] - Energy prices are stabilizing, but housing and healthcare costs continue to pressure household budgets [5] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have somewhat curbed inflation, with the current benchmark rate at 4.50%-4.75%, but high rates are also suppressing business investment and consumer spending [5] Labor Market - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, slightly above historical lows, while overall employment remains strong [7] - Wage growth is moderating, easing inflationary pressures, but certain sectors like technology and construction still see high wage increases [7] - Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, particularly among older workers and caregivers, with 8 million job vacancies and only 6.8 million unemployed [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more cautious in a high-interest-rate environment, with rising borrowing costs making large purchases less attainable [9] - Credit card debt has surpassed $1 trillion, and reduced savings and high prices are further eroding consumer confidence [9] - Retail performance is mixed, with consumers prioritizing essential goods and cutting back on discretionary spending, as seen in Target's underwhelming performance despite discount strategies [9] Housing Market - The US housing market faces challenges with high mortgage rates cooling demand, as 30-year fixed mortgage rates exceed 7% [12] - Although home prices are stabilizing, mortgage payments consume a larger share of disposable income compared to previous years, highlighting affordability issues [12] - The rental market remains stable with limited supply driving up rents, adding to household burdens, while policymakers focus on affordable housing reforms [12] Global Factors - Global economic conditions significantly impact the US economy, with geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains and increasing costs for businesses [15] - Emerging markets present opportunities for US exports, particularly in high-tech and agricultural products, as companies seek to diversify risks [15] - However, rising trade protectionism and policy uncertainties pose challenges to US trade and investment [15]

Core Viewpoint - The new tariff policy may continue to have profound impacts on the U.S. economy, potentially increasing inflation and slowing economic growth despite recent trade tensions easing [1][8]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impacts - Tariffs act as a negative supply shock, leading to price increases and potentially reducing consumer demand, which could slow economic growth [3]. - The current tariff levels in the U.S. remain significantly higher than the average over the past few decades, indicating ongoing economic pressure even with temporary adjustments [1][8]. Group 2: Economic and Employment Effects - The negative effects of supply shocks from tariffs may not be fully offset by weakened demand, which could also hinder job market conditions, making it harder for job seekers [3]. - Many Americans are reassessing major life decisions, such as marriage, childbirth, and home buying, due to economic uncertainties, with about 60% indicating that the economic situation has impacted their life goals [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate is deemed necessary due to ongoing inflation risks, with the monetary policy prepared to respond to future economic changes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The potential tax reform is expected to significantly boost the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - The tax reform proposed by President Trump is seen as a catalyst for economic growth in the United States [1]