Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, driving the rebound of urea futures and spot prices. Urea daily production is at a high level, increasing market supply. Agricultural demand is scattered, with fertilizer - preparation expectations in Northeast China and for southern rice. The domestic export policy remains tight, the export window is temporarily closed, and the export volume remains low. It is recommended to continuously monitor export - related policies. The urea market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On April 10, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,865 yuan/ton (+35). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,900 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1,910 yuan/ton (+10). The Shandong basis was 25 yuan/ton (-25), the Henan basis was 35 yuan/ton (-15), and the Jiangsu basis was 45 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of April 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.41% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of April 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 304 yuan/ton (+10). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 48.89% (-3.48%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.63% (+4.45%) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of April 10, 2025, the export profit was - 64 yuan/ton (+3). With the rise of domestic urea prices and a slight decline in international urea prices, the price difference between the domestic and international markets has decreased, and the export window is temporarily closed [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of April 10, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 5.82 days (-0.83) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the urea market will experience short - term fluctuations. The fundamentals are generally neutral, with high daily production, significant inventory reduction, and potential demand boosts from increased exports of related products. It is recommended to keep an eye on low - level buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. Supply shows high daily production and high operating rates, with significant inventory reduction. The industrial demand includes a good operating rate for compound fertilizers and a neutral rate for melamine, while agricultural demand has limited short - term changes. There is no news of changes in urea export policies, but increased exports of related products like ammonium sulfate and boards may drive urea demand. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2505 contract is 25, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 874,000 tons, a decrease of 124,000 tons, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Given high daily production and rapid inventory reduction, the market is predicted to fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and marginal demand recovery, while negative factors are the overall weakness of commodities due to additional tariffs and ample supply. The main logic lies in high daily production on the supply side and marginal demand changes, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of delivery - eligible urea is 1,890 yuan (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1,890 yuan (+10), the Henan spot price is 1,900 yuan, and the FOB China price is 2,026 yuan [4][6]. - **Futures**: The UR05 contract price is 1,865 yuan (+35), the UR01 contract price is 1,781 yuan (+30), and the UR09 contract price is 1,823 yuan (+32) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 874,000 tons (-124,000 tons), the warehouse receipt is 4,687 (-163), the UR factory inventory is 475,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 120,000 tons [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry's production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. For example, the production capacity increased from 2,245.5 in 2018 to 4,418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [9].

【冠通研究】 行情弱势整理，基本面承压 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约低开高走震荡收涨，前半周受关税政策影响盘面弱势运行，现 货市场同样受情绪压制，两日降价后今日低价货源成交好转，触发部分工厂停售 或小幅调涨。供给端，春季多发临检本周仍有三家工厂有检修计划，但前期检修 企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原等本周复产。 需求端，下游低价货源买进。水稻农需备肥零星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左 右农需备肥，复合肥原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，但企业成品库存增加，工厂 开工负荷降低，春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。 三聚氰胺开工率稳中上移，工业需求依然维持刚性。本期上游工厂出现累库，清 明假期期间下游接货力度不足，弱势低价下，需求跟进缓慢，工厂出现累库。整 体来说，尿素目前受宏观影响较小，基本面偏弱，需求端环比走弱，盘面震荡偏 弱为主，主力合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1785 元/吨低开高走午后翻红，盘面震荡收 涨，最终收于 1830 元/吨，收成一根阳线， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are currently high due to downstream agricultural demand. The supply of urea remains high with few maintenance enterprises, and the demand is also good. Agricultural demand is supported by the fertilizer needs of northern corn and southern rice, and industrial demand for compound fertilizers is in the peak production season. The domestic export policy is tightened, and the possibility of enterprises participating in the Indian import tender is low. The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and attention should be paid to export - related policies and demand progress [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [16][19][22] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It provides data on the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the price difference between the Baltic Sea and China, the price difference between Southeast Asia and China, urea export profit, and disk export profit [26][30][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders [42][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume [45][48][53]