Core Viewpoint - Trump predicts that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates this week, which would mark the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's high interest rates is aimed at stimulating the economy and the stock market [1] - A significant rate cut could temporarily boost the stock market and lower loan rates, making it easier for companies to borrow money [1] Group 2: Long-term Considerations - Long-term effects of a substantial rate cut may include a rebound in inflation and potential asset bubbles [1] - There is a risk that capital could be withdrawn from emerging markets, leading to increased volatility [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's independence and its next moves, as Trump's comments have raised concerns about the influence of political pressure on monetary policy [1] - Regardless of the outcome, the anticipation of this "rate cut drama" is likely to cause significant market fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary defended a special arrangement for Milan, allowing him to temporarily leave his White House position while serving on the Federal Reserve Board [1] - The Senate approved Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, and he will participate in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [1] - Analysts suggest that two other Fed governors, Bowman and Waller, may vote against maintaining interest rates in the upcoming September meeting due to weaker-than-expected labor market data [1] Group 2 - Democrats criticized the temporary leave arrangement as absurd and a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially following Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor [2] - Trump may nominate Milan for a full 14-year term in February, or he could choose another candidate [2] - If Trump does not select another candidate, Milan could potentially remain indefinitely [3] Group 3 - The Treasury Secretary had a positive meeting with potential candidate Brad for the Fed Chair position, highlighting his expertise in monetary policy and deep understanding of the Federal Reserve [3] - Brad expressed interest in the Fed Chair position, emphasizing the importance of defending the dollar's status as a reserve currency and maintaining low and stable inflation [3]

大家都知道，TikTok在美国一直面临着被禁止的风险，特朗普之前还曾多次延迟TikTok禁令，将TikTok"不卖就禁用"法案执行宽限期一延再延。 从最新的谈判结果来看，TikTok相关问题已经得到了初步解决。 而这次中美谈判似乎在TikTok问题上达成了一些共识，接下来美国大概率就要发布相关消息了。 自从特朗普加征关税以来，中美之间已经进行了四次谈判，而本次谈判的结果已经发布了。 TikTok作为一款非常受欢迎的社交媒体应用，在美国拥有大量的用户。如果TikTok真的被禁止，不仅会对美国的用户造成不便，也会对美国的科技产业和社 交媒体生态产生一定的影响。 所以，TikTok问题的初步解决，对于中美两国来说可能都是一个比较好的结果，也为中美贸易谈判增添了一些积极的因素。 虽然TikTok问题有了进展，但中美之间的贸易问题还很复杂，不仅仅是关税和TikTok问题，还有其他一些领域的分歧和摩擦。 不过，中美谈判最终还是从两国利益最大化出发，你好我好大家好，毕竟作为全球最大的两个经济体，其贸易直接会影响到全球经济的发展。 根据美国商务部普查局最新报告，今年 1 到 7 月，中美之间的货物贸易总额是 2709.84 ...

当地时间9月15日，美国参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过对斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事会成员的 提名。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间9月16日，美国总统特朗普表示已签署斯蒂芬·米兰入职美联储的相关文件，并强调"美联储需 要保持独立"。 美联储8月1日发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒将辞去美联储理事的职位，于8月8日正式卸任。特朗普7 日表示，已选定白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰接替空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31 日。 ...

一、半夜判决！法院挡刀，特朗普没得逞 急眼了？特朗普突击开除美联储女理事，法院深夜出手：不准！利率大战一夜爆表！ "就赶在美联储议息前一天晚上，特朗普突然开除唯一黑人女理事——结果被法院狠狠打脸！"一场总统与法官之间的权力拉锯战，在利率决议前夜彻底摊 牌。他为什么非要在这个时候动她？难道降息一票，真能撬动美国经济？ 法院讲得很直白：要动美联储理事，得拿出真凭实据——"正当理由"不是你说有就有的！ 华盛顿联邦上诉法院9月15日晚紧急裁定：维持禁令，不准特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook），允许她照常参加本周利率投票。 这事闹得可不是一般大。 8月底，特朗普突然指责库克"房贷欺诈"，说要炒她——可偏偏选在FOMC议息会议前几天动手。库克也不怂，转头就把政府告了，要求法院紧急保护。 结果你也看到了： 地方法院站她，上诉法院也站她。 二、为什么偏是这个时候？为什么偏是她？ 特朗普这时间选得，要说没算计，谁信？ 明明可以早点或晚点，却非要卡在利率决议前夜搞事！ 明眼人都看得出： 库克这几年和主席鲍威尔站同一阵线，不主张急着降息； 如果这关键一票被拔掉，再塞个自己人，特朗普就能在利率话语权上"加戏"，甚至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled against the Trump administration's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to conduct monetary policy without political interference [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The ruling upholds the principle of protection for independent agency officials established in the 1935 Humphrey's Executor case, delineating the legal boundaries of presidential power [1]. - The case reflects ongoing challenges to the Federal Reserve's policy independence, as internal conflicts may arise from the Senate's confirmation of new board members [1][4]. Group 2: Implications for the U.S. Dollar and Global Economy - The potential for political interference in monetary policy could lead to a decline in investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, resulting in capital outflows and depreciation of the dollar [4]. - Increased long-term borrowing costs could exacerbate the interest burden on U.S. government debt, while accelerating the trend of de-dollarization globally [4]. - The ruling sends a signal that Federal Reserve policies are not subject to political manipulation, temporarily stabilizing the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [4]. Group 3: Broader Political Context - The situation highlights the fragility of American democratic institutions and the ongoing struggle between administrative power and independent agencies [5][7]. - The ultimate resolution of this issue may depend on a future ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, which could have significant implications for the relationship between executive power and independent institutions [7].

据美国媒体报道，美国联邦上诉法院当地时间9月15日裁定，驳回特朗普政府有关允许其解雇美国联邦 储备委员会理事莉萨·库克的请求。美联储定于16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储将 开启新一轮降息。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate approved Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board with a narrow vote of 48 to 47, which exceeded market expectations. Milan will participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting immediately after his confirmation [1] - The market anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 95.9% probability according to CME FedWatch. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October is 73.8% [2] - President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell for immediate and larger rate cuts, raising concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [2][5] Group 2 - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve's independence is evident through his nomination of loyalists like Milan and potential changes to the board's composition, which could lead to a more accommodating monetary policy [3] - The recent downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data by 911,000 jobs is the largest on record, raising doubts about the actual strength of the U.S. labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and economic projections are critical, as the market is focused not just on whether a rate cut will occur, but also on the Fed's credibility amid political pressures [5] Group 3 - Economic scenarios post-rate cut will vary; a soft landing could lead to intermittent rate cuts, affecting asset performance differently, with potential for a weaker dollar and lower bond yields [6] - The market's reaction to rate cuts will depend on the economic context, with stock markets potentially facing pressure if recession fears rise, while bond markets may see a steeper yield curve due to inflation expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is perceived as a political showdown rather than a mere monetary policy discussion, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut and ongoing speculation about a potential 50 basis point cut [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets have reached new highs, oil prices have slightly increased, and the dollar remains stable, indicating a cautious positioning by investors ahead of the Fed's decision [2] - The market is not overly optimistic but is instead adopting a "gambler's calm," anticipating a 25 basis point cut while recognizing the pressure from Trump for more aggressive easing [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is increasingly viewed as a political entity, with decision-makers seen as representatives of political stances rather than purely academic backgrounds, leading to a potential loss of direction for the Fed [3][4] - The possibility of a "four-way split" vote at the Fed could symbolize a significant political drama, indicating a fracture in the institution's decision-making process [4][5] Group 3: Rate Cut Scenarios - DLSMARKETS outlines various potential outcomes for the Fed's rate decision, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut being the most likely scenario, which would be interpreted positively by the market [6][8] - A 50 basis point cut is seen as a double-edged sword, with potential market reactions ranging from panic to a surge in risk assets, depending on how the cut is perceived [9]

美联储降息的"靴子"即将落地，全球市场都在屏息等待，这场看似常规的货币政策调整，却因政治博弈与经济数据的角力变得异常复杂。 有人说这是经济疲软下的必然宽松，也有人担忧政治之手会扭曲货币政策的独立性。 究竟美联储的决策天平会向哪端倾斜？降息幅度、政策节奏背后又藏着怎样的逻辑？让我们从争议中寻找答案。 或许有人会说，美联储作为独立机构，哪能轻易被政治裹挟？ 毕竟其制度设计本就强调与政府的权责分离，历史上也不乏顶住行政压力坚持政策立场的先例，所谓"司法施压库克"可能只是个别事件，算不上实质性干 预。 但从另一个角度看，投票格局恰恰暴露了干预空间，美联储7位理事中已有3位明确支持降息，只需再争取1票就能倾向特朗普政府的诉求，这种"差一票"的 微妙平衡，让政治力量有了可乘之机。 关键的是美联储以抵押贷款欺诈为由起诉库克、要求上诉法庭9月16日前出裁决，并非简单的舆论施压。 而是通过司法手段精准针对关键投票人，甚至卡着议息会时间节点推进，这种操作已触及政策决策的核心环节。 虽然美联储的独立性有制度保障，但当政治力量通过非常规手段介入关键成员的去留，其决策天平难免会出现倾斜，所谓"独立"更像是相对概念而非绝对状 态。 毕竟 ...