英国首相发言人：英国正在关注中东局势，关于人员情况暂无更新，此前美国部分撤离了一些人员。 ...

跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 伊朗革命卫队司令：伊朗对以色列的回应将比过去的攻势 "更具力量和破坏性"。 ...

订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 据伊朗国家电视台：伊朗正计划采取额外反制措施，相关举措将在稍后公布。 ...

跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 伊拉克高级官员：外国能源公司在伊拉克继续正常运营 金十数据6月12日讯，一名伊拉克高级官员周四表示，外国能源公司继续在伊拉克正常运营，此前美国 总统特朗普表示，美国人员正在撤离中东，因为"那里可能是一个危险的地方"。伊拉克石油部没有收到 运营商关于削减员工的任何通知，负责南部油田运营的官员补充说。周三，消息人士称，由于该地区安 全风险加剧，美国正准备撤离其驻伊拉克大使馆。 ...

《华盛顿邮报》报道指出，由于担心以色列对伊朗发动袭击，美国正缩减在中东地区的存在，同时，美 国在中东地区的使馆和军事基地均处于高度戒备状态。报道称，近几个月来，美国情报官员越来越担心 以色列可能会在未经美国同意的情况下，袭击伊朗的核设施。此前在5月底，美国有线电视新闻网曾报 道称，美国情报显示，以色列正就打击伊朗核设施进行准备，包括展开空中演习以及调动航空弹药等。 根据报道中援引的以色列和美国消息人士的说法，如果美伊谈判破裂，或者美伊达成了令以色列无法接 受的协议，以色列都会采取军事行动。(央视新闻) ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as China - US trade talks, tariff policies, and spot freight rates. Under the current situation, the market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot market lacks significant positive news, making the futures market prone to decline and difficult to rise [3]. - Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court's ruling [3]. 3. Specific Summaries Market Conditions - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 2240.35 points on June 6, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points on June 6, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2]. - On June 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2001.5, down 2.10%, with a trading volume of 55,100 lots and an open interest of 44,600 lots, a decrease of 891 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49); the May services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1); the May composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous value 50.4). The eurozone's May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous value - 19.5) [2]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous value 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.6) [2]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [5]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 728.33 billion yuan, down 6.1% [5]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 447.51 billion yuan, down 6.3% [5]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative in the same period were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is strong and the long - term freight rate is weak. Pay attention to the court's ruling result. Currently, use a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in oil prices may provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. Although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, where China mainly imports methanol from Iran, brings significant risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: MA01 increased from 2338 yuan/ton to 2345 yuan/ton, a 0.30% rise; MA05 rose from 2279 yuan/ton to 2289 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase; MA09 went up from 2276 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase [1]. - **Spot prices**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia increased, with Shandong rising from 2155 yuan/ton to 2167.50 yuan/ton (0.58%) and Inner Mongolia from 1895 yuan/ton to 1897.50 yuan/ton (0.13%). The price in Taicang decreased from 2370 yuan/ton to 2361.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%), while those in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Upstream costs**: Most coal and natural gas prices remained stable, with Ordos Q5500 coal price dropping from 425 yuan/ton to 422.50 yuan/ton (-0.59%) [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 359.70 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit stayed at - 570 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit decreased from 603.80 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton (-2.29%), and East China MTO profit dropped from - 642.07 yuan/ton to - 669.07 yuan/ton (-4.21%). Profits of downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE also declined [1]. 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 first rose and then fell, opening at 2282 yuan/ton, closing at 2276 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 661,705 lots and an open interest of 832,017, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, there may be short - term rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is evacuating non-essential personnel from the Middle East due to potential unrest, with the State Department ordering the withdrawal of all non-essential staff from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad [1][2] - The U.S. Central Command is monitoring the escalating tensions in the region, and the Defense Secretary has authorized the voluntary evacuation of military families stationed in the Middle East [2][3] - President Trump expressed a lack of confidence in reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, stating that Iran seems to be stalling and showing little enthusiasm for a deal [3][4] Group 2 - Iranian officials warned that if negotiations with the U.S. fail, Iran would target U.S. military bases in the region, indicating a readiness for conflict [3][5] - Iran's defense minister stated that all U.S. bases are within range of Iranian missiles, and the country has successfully tested a missile with a 2-ton warhead [6][7] - Iran has reportedly acquired sensitive documents from Israel, which include information on nuclear weapon plans and military strategies, indicating a significant intelligence operation [7][8]

以色列告知美国其已为伊朗行动做好准备 美国特使仍计划与伊朗会谈 金十数据6月12日讯，据美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）：美国官员被告知以色列已为伊朗行动做好了 充分准备。这是美国建议一些美国人离开该地区的部分原因。美国预计伊朗可能会对美国在伊拉克的某 些基地进行报复。美国中东问题特使威特科夫仍计划于本周日与伊朗举行第六轮会谈。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market price range is set, and the price increase reaction is weak. Without more positive factors, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final ruling result [3]. - The US has extended the tariff exemption on China, and the dialogue between the top leaders of China and the US has brought some impetus to the bulls. However, due to the slight decline in spot freight rates, the situation of price increase implementation is unclear, and the market fluctuates greatly with the game between long and short positions [3]. 3. Key Points by Category Freight Rate Index - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds to above 2250, it is recommended to try short positions with a light position and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term one. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling result, and currently, the positive arbitrage structure is mainly considered [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Market Conditions - On June 6, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16%, the margin was adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 was 100 lots [3]. Other Information - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said on the 5th that Israel is "using" local organizations in the Gaza Strip to fight against Hamas [4]. - As of the end of May, China has newly opened more than 100 international air cargo routes this year, with 26 new routes opened in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the cargo mainly includes cross - border e - commerce goods, electronic products, etc. [4]