1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on polysilicon, suggesting it is likely to experience strong fluctuations. It recommends a strategy of buying on dips, with a focus on the polysilicon futures market [3][5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon are increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. If there are new developments in capacity integration or exit, polysilicon prices may rise again; otherwise, they may fluctuate downward under inventory and warrant pressure [3][5]. - The anti - involution policy has supported the increase in polysilicon prices, and the industry is expected to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality development." The sustainability of price increases and their downstream transmission are key factors, and capacity integration and output regulation are important for the industry's sustainable development [30][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - **Spot Price Trend Review**: Guided by the anti - involution policy, polysilicon prices remained stable, with an average price of about 47,200 yuan/ton. The average prices of various types of polysilicon, such as N - type recompounded materials, were stable, and the transaction prices showed a slight increase [7][8]. - **Spot Trend Analysis**: The price difference between PS2511 and PS2512 contracts is large, mainly because the warrants of the 11 - contract will be centrally cancelled upon expiration [9]. - **Futures Contract Price Trend**: The price of the main contract PS2511 increased by 3.23% to 50,790 yuan/ton [3][5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In August, polysilicon production is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, with the weekly output increasing by 11% to 29,400 tons. There are 9 polysilicon enterprises in production this week, with one resuming production and another entering maintenance. The proportion of N - type polysilicon and granular silicon is increasing, and the industry is expected to see capacity integration and exit [18][19][21]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream product prices, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, have increased to varying degrees, and demand has slightly recovered. Overseas demand may also increase. The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 1.02GW to 12.02GW, an increase of about 9%. The output of battery cells and components in August is expected to increase slightly [5][32][49]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There is an oversupply situation, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 11%, while the weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 9%, slightly lower than the growth rate of polysilicon [5]. 3.3 Cost and Profit - The cost of polysilicon may increase due to the rise in raw material prices such as coal and industrial silicon. The increase in polysilicon prices is beneficial for profit repair in the photovoltaic industry, but the cost pressure will be transmitted to terminal installation enterprises. The acceptance of price increases by downstream power stations needs attention [68]. 3.4 Import and Export - The report provides data on China's polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon wafer, polycrystalline silicon wafer, battery cell, and component import and export volumes, but no specific analysis of trends is provided [71][81][97]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, polysilicon inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 233,000 tons, and warrants increased by 380 lots to 3,580 lots, equivalent to 10,740 tons. As prices rise above full cost, warrants are expected to further increase [5][105][106].

与此同时，工信部对41家多晶硅厂展开专项节能监查，9月底前各地需报送结果。另外，行业内产能收储行动预期也较为强烈。业内期待更多产能整合措 施真正落地，硅业分会预测国内多晶硅年产能将减少至230万吨。银河期货据此测算显示，整合后价格上限或达60000—65000元/吨。 近期，多家光伏龙头企业披露了2025年半年度业绩预告，已经揭示了内卷下的行业困境。其中，隆基绿能预计上半年归母净利润亏损24亿元到28亿元，同 比减亏24.43亿元到28.43亿元；通威股份预计上半年归母净利润亏损49亿元至52亿元；晶澳科技预计上半年归母净利润亏损25亿元至30亿元。 8月6日，多晶硅和工业硅期货盘中一度大涨近5%。 自光伏产业掀起整治无序竞争的浪潮以来，多晶硅的价格走势被视作观察"反内卷"进程的信号。自8月份以来，多晶硅和工业硅的价格走势陷入震荡。相 比焦煤，多晶硅在7月份大涨52.73%之后，并没有出现大幅回调，而是高位震荡。市场对于多晶硅市场产能整合进一步给予更多期许。 中信期货认为，在多重政策预期的影响下，多晶硅价格短期走势仍高度依赖于政策信号的强弱与兑现节奏，未来一个月或将是政策落地的关键窗口期。若 相关供给侧改革措 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the prices of polysilicon and industrial silicon, highlighting the impact of government policies aimed at reducing competition in the photovoltaic industry and the expected consolidation of production capacity [3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Expectations - On August 6, polysilicon and industrial silicon futures saw a significant increase of nearly 5% [1]. - Since the beginning of August, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices have been volatile, with polysilicon prices experiencing a 52.73% increase in July without a major pullback, indicating market expectations for further capacity consolidation [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting energy-saving inspections on 41 polysilicon manufacturers, with results due by the end of September [4]. Group 2: Industry Performance and Financial Forecasts - Major photovoltaic companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, revealing significant losses: Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan, Tongwei Co. anticipates a loss of 4.9 to 5.2 billion yuan, and JA Solar forecasts a loss of 2.5 to 3 billion yuan [4]. - The China Securities Futures believes that the short-term price trends of polysilicon will heavily depend on the strength and timing of policy signals, with the next month being crucial for policy implementation [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - The largest photovoltaic ETF (515790) has seen a net inflow of 3.39 billion yuan since June 23, leading to a significant increase in fund shares [5]. - However, following a series of restrictions from the exchange after July 23, there has been a continuous net outflow of funds, with fund shares dropping to 16.565 billion yuan by August 5 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.5%, and the position decreased by 18,176 lots to 176,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2509 closed at 48,720 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%, and the position decreased by 12,729 lots to 98,000 lots [2]. - The policy expectations for polysilicon have peaked, and its valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's focus has shifted to industrial supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are anchored to cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. News of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium [2]. - Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the centralized integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production in the southwest of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in the southwest will be the marginal driving factor [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,660 yuan/ton on August 1 to 8,365 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 295 yuan/ton. Spot prices of various grades also generally declined, with the price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropping to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing to 510 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 204, and the total social inventory decreased by 5,400 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,200 yuan/ton on August 1 to 48,720 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The price of N - type re - fed silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 3,930 yuan/ton. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.6 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Include the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. - **Inventory**: Present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Display the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][30]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in commodity research, focus on different aspects of the non - ferrous and new energy industries, and have provided high - quality research reports and services [33][34].

自7月以来，国内光伏行业启动新一轮整治无序竞争行动。工信部和国家能源局分别强调依法治理低价 竞争，提升产品质量和技术水平，推动落后产能退出，实现可持续发展。8月1日，工信部还对41家多晶 硅企业进行专项节能监察，涉及多家头部企业。野村东方国际证券认为，这将标志着产业进行产业整合 的开始，看好反内卷背景下光伏行业的产能整合，硅料环节有望率先迎来整合以及盈利、价格的回归。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场首只上市跟踪创业板新能源指数的ETF基金，该指数主要涵 盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏、半导体等多个细分领域，弹性大、成长性强，是专精特 新聚集地。此外，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，合计仅为 0.2%，同类产品费率最低档，助力大家"一键上车"快速把握投资机遇。如果看好未来新能源发展投资机 遇，建议持续关注。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2025年8月4日早盘 A股三大股指涨跌不一，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）开盘震荡回调，但多个持 仓股表现亮眼，捷佳伟创、金雷股份、英搏尔、华宝新能等纷纷领涨，截至11：04，涨幅超过3%。 消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure among wafer manufacturers, leading to a slight price increase in polysilicon materials [1][2] Polysilicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 47,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon averages 44,300 yuan/ton, up 0.68% week-on-week [1] - From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production is 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [1] - The expected domestic polysilicon production for August is around 125,000 tons [1] - The integration of polysilicon production capacity is crucial for maintaining a balance in supply and demand, with a target capacity reduction to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [1] Silicon Wafer Market - The average price of silicon wafers has continued to rise, with 183RN single crystal wafers averaging 1.20 yuan/piece (up 9.09%), 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece (up 8.00%), and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece (up 7.64%) [2] - The increase in wafer prices is driven by rising raw material costs and an increase in downstream purchasing orders [2] Market Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic due to effective policy implementation and industry self-discipline, with strong price support from silicon wafer manufacturers [3] - The future price trends will depend on the downstream market's acceptance of price increases, as current price rises are based on expectations and short-term policy effects [3] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with 183N averaging 0.29 yuan/W and both 210RN and 210N at 0.285 yuan/W, reflecting a rise of 5.6% to 7.4% [3] Component Market - The demand for components is expected to recover slightly as domestic orders increase, with manufacturers responding to supply chain fluctuations and policy adjustments [4][5] - The current transaction prices for TOPCon components range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, although the transaction volume remains low [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

点评：硅业分会数据显示多晶硅价格小幅上涨，主要因下游硅片企业库存压力小，接受原料成本增加。 但需求未实质性回暖，价格涨幅收窄。产量环比增加，但同比仍降。库存积压是价格走势的关键变量。 产能整合及企业竞争力提升是长期关键，市场回暖尚需时日。 NO.2 长江电力：上半年净利润同比增长14.22% 7月30日，长江电力公告，公司2025年上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润129.84亿元，同比增长 14.22%；实现营业总收入365.87亿元，同比增长5.02%。业绩增长主要由于公司六座梯级电站发电量增 加。 点评：长江电力上半年净利润增长，主要得益于梯级电站发电量提升。营收亦同步增长，显示水电业务 稳健。作为基础能源股，业绩增长为市场提供稳定预期。 每经记者｜朱成祥 每经编辑｜张海妮 丨 2025年7月31日 星期四 丨 NO.1 硅业分会多晶硅周评：成交相对集中，价格小幅上涨 7月30日，据中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会消息，本周硅料成交均价在区间内上移，但环比涨幅有所 收窄。签单企业数量维持在4至5家，且大多数成交量集中在头部两家企业，其余企业少量成交。本周多 晶硅价格小幅回升，主要是由于下游硅片价格上涨，部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the exit of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, but if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress, it may suppress the demand for industrial silicon in the future. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation trend [4]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is at a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expected reduction in electricity prices and the expansion of profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand increment in the second half of the year is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may improve the industry situation and drive up prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and a weekly decline of 2.52%. The SI2511 contract's closing price is 9280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decline of 0.91%. The SI09 - 11 month - spread is 5 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 93.75% and a weekly decline of 96.88% [16][18]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 10000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The East China 421 - 553 spread is 250 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 28.57% [20]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50082 hands, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in some delivery warehouses have also changed, such as a 3.57% decrease in the Xinjiang delivery warehouse [28]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 54705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.68% and a weekly increase of 9.24%. The PS2511 contract's closing price is 54880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.73% and a weekly increase of 10.30%. The PS09 - 11 month - spread is - 175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 29.63% and a weekly decline of 153.85% [31][34]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon and its various specifications remain unchanged. The N - type polysilicon price index is 44.7 yuan/kg. The price of N - type silicon wafers has increased, with the N - type silicon wafer price index rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, a 5% increase [38][40]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 10005 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 63.88% and a weekly increase of 65.92%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 3070, remaining unchanged [44][47]. Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, they can short futures, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, they can buy forward futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2].

Group 1 - The average transaction price of polysilicon n-type raw materials this week is 47,100 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [1] - The average transaction price of n-type granular silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.68% [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is primarily due to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a slight price increase by polysilicon producers [1] Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers has returned to 10, with two companies partially resuming production, contributing to a slight output increase [2] - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, while the cumulative production from January to July was 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2] - The expected production for August is around 125,000 tons, and if capacity integration occurs as planned, domestic polysilicon capacity may reduce to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [2]