那底层逻辑的话呢也比较简单，也就是说海外的资本认为人民币会不断升值，也就它会抛售美元持有人 民币，那他又不会在场内简单的持有人民币，他大概率会在整个香港的一个资本市场上，我无论说是去 买恒生科技，还是去配置一部分比如港股红利这种资产，那我吃两份钱，一个是人民币升值我能挣钱， 一个是什么？呀我比如说我持有股红利，我能拿到红利的一部分的收入，那其实这个就是底层一个逻 辑，我们会发现明显的一个负相关性，那在这个时间节点的话人民币不断走强，我们就可以考虑配置一 部分资产到恒生科技或者港股这一边。 这个人民币汇率的一旦走强，其实对黄金咱们持有黄金的兄弟姐妹来讲是比较被动的，因为他在不断的 侵蚀你持有黄金的一个利润，因为你的黄金是以人民币计价，那如果人民币越来越强，你的黄金的价格 就不像之前那么高了，我一直想给大家去做一个对冲的一个策略，也就是说有没有什么产品在人民币升 值的时候，它大概率会去涨，那对冲一下我持有这个黄金收益被侵蚀的这一部分那有没有？和讯投顾葛 鋆隆认为其实是有的，黄颜色的是恒生科技指数，那底下的彩色的线呢就是人民币汇率，那我们会发现 两者有比较明显的一个负相关性，啊那当恒生科技涨的时候，我们会发现人民币 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have seen a historic surge, reaching a high of $4,381 per ounce in October 2025, with predictions of hitting $5,000 by 2026 due to factors like U.S. policies, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from central banks and new investors [2] - Central banks have diversified their reserves for five consecutive years, which analysts believe will provide solid support for gold prices in 2026, with a quarterly demand expectation of 585 tons compared to the current requirement of 350 tons to maintain price levels [2] - The proportion of gold assets held by investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% of total assets since before 2022, indicating a growing interest in gold as a hedge against market downturns [3] Group 2 - The International Bank for Settlements noted a rare simultaneous rise in gold and stock prices, raising concerns about a potential bubble, while geopolitical conflicts have made gold a preferred hedge against stock market declines [3] - Despite a 23% decline in jewelry demand in Q3, there is a shift towards investment in gold bars and coins, as evidenced by increased retail demand in Australia and Europe [3] - The overall gold supply response has been limited, with only a 6% increase in recycling and minimal central bank sell-offs, while total gold demand is expected to grow by 11% this year but will slow down by 2026 [3][4]

做了20年财经记者，我最清楚中长线赚钱的关键，就是别被短期涨跌带偏，抓核心逻辑。现在市场不是 普涨普跌，而是结构性机会，AI看硬科技、地产看核心资产、光伏看龙头整合、贵金属做对冲，茅台 这类消费股则要等基本面企稳。 你们觉得AI和光伏，哪个更值得中长线布局？评论区聊聊你的看法。我是帮主郑重，只分享有逻辑的 中长线干货，下期咱们深扒具体标的，不见不散～ 楼市这边更有意思，4个一线城市二手房前11个月卖了51.9万套，创了4年新高。这可不是短期炒作，而 是政策宽松后，置换链条通了，很多人卖旧房买新房，"量增—信心恢复—价稳"的良性循环正在形成。 对中长线来说，优质城市的核心房产和地产链里的龙头企业，值得多留个心眼。 光伏行业要变天了，30亿的多晶硅收储平台成立，第四次洗牌要来了。前几年硅料产能扩太多，价格从 30万跌到3万，全行业亏得厉害，现在头部企业联合起来整合产能，淘汰落后产能，这就像给行业"止 血"。中长线看，有成本和技术优势的硅料龙头，还有垂直一体化的企业，会在这轮整合中受益。 最后聊聊茅台，散瓶批价跌到1520元，两年跌了43%，经销商躺赢的日子过去了。说白了就是之前囤货 的太多，库存压顶，加上消费端有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset hedging, particularly through the use of deep out-of-the-money put options, to protect against market downturns and "black swan" events, which are often underestimated by investors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Importance of Hedging - Historical examples illustrate that during significant market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, hedging strategies can yield substantial returns, as demonstrated by Universa Investments achieving approximately 115% returns while the S&P 500 fell by about 37% [1][2]. - Many investors maintain a purely long position without any hedging, often due to a fear of underperforming compared to peers, leading to a lack of protection against potential market crashes [1][2]. Group 2: Mathematical Illustration of Hedging - A hypothetical scenario shows that an investor with a long-only position (Old Wang) could see their investment drop from 1.52 million to 0.988 million after a 35% market decline, while a hedged investor (Old Li) would still retain a value of 1.336 million due to the gains from put options [3][4]. - The article highlights that deep out-of-the-money put options can potentially multiply returns significantly during market crashes, reinforcing the necessity of hedging [4]. Group 3: Strategies for Hedging - The article discusses the use of long put options as a dual-purpose tool for both speculation and hedging, with protective puts being a strategy to mitigate losses in a bear market [5][9]. - It provides a step-by-step guide for investors on how to implement these strategies effectively, including determining risk tolerance and selecting appropriate strike prices and expiration dates for options [11][12]. Group 4: Practical Applications - Two practical applications are presented: one for speculative purposes and another for hedging against potential market downturns. For speculation, the article suggests selecting a strike price close to the current stock price, while for hedging, it recommends choosing a deeper out-of-the-money strike price to minimize costs [13][16]. - The article also outlines the potential outcomes of these strategies, including scenarios where the stock price falls below the strike price, demonstrating how hedging can limit losses [17][18].

Group 1 - Australian investors are increasingly allocating funds to Bitcoin over gold, indicating that Bitcoin is being viewed as a hedge and asset protection tool amid market volatility caused by Trump's trade policies [1][3] - In May, Bitcoin's price surged over 10%, reaching a historical high of $111,980 (approximately 174,000 AUD), benefiting from favorable regulations and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] - The inflow into Australian Bitcoin ETFs in May reached 87.3 million AUD, significantly surpassing the 1.5 million AUD inflow into gold ETFs [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. market shows a more pronounced trend of fund allocation, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $9 billion (approximately 139 billion AUD) in the first five weeks of May, while gold ETFs experienced an outflow of $2.8 billion [3][4] - Investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as an independent asset class, with decreasing correlation to traditional risk assets like tech stocks, indicating its strengthening position as an "independent allocation asset" [5][6] - Gold's price has stabilized, with a recent report of $3,313 per ounce, slightly below its historical high of $3,500, while Bitcoin's status as an alternative asset is rising due to waning trust in traditional safe-haven assets [4][5]