Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4580. PP prices fluctuate, FEI and CP prices decline, CP discount remains unchanged, PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. The PG futures market weakens, the monthly spread changes little, and the 08 - 09 spread is 95. The US - Far East arbitrage window closes [1]. - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. Geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the week lead to a bullish market, but overall supply is abundant, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle - East situation causes a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. The PG futures market falls sharply, the basis strengthens to 345, and the monthly spread changes little. External market prices weaken significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The internal - external price difference drops significantly, PG - CP weakens to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakens significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Import prices drop significantly, AFEI propane discount drops slightly, and CP propane - butane discount drops significantly. PDH spot production profit improves, paper - based production profit rises, FEI is lower than CP; alkylation oil profit rises significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit is basically flat, isomerization etherification profit increases; FEI - MOPJ moves up [1]. - Fundamentally, increased arrivals lead to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation, East China destocks, and South China and Shandong accumulate inventory; external sales increase; PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and MTBE production remains basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 lots (+0). Next week, PDH and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise slightly, combustion demand remains weak, low prices stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Data - From June 24 - 30, 2025, prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and other related products change. For example, South China LPG prices range from 4710 - 4755, Shandong LPG prices range from 4599 - 4667 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures market: The PG futures market weakens, and the monthly spread changes little [1]. - External market: FEI and CP prices decline, and the US - Far East and US - Asia arbitrage windows close [1]. - Spot market: Civil gas prices show a trend of rising first and then falling [1]. Profit and Cost - PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. PDH spot production profit improves, and paper - based production profit rises [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventory accumulates due to increased arrivals, factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation. PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex trends, with civil gas prices rising first and then falling. The PG futures price fluctuates widely, the basis strengthens, and the spread between months changes little. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, and the profit of PDH production improves slightly. It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will rise slightly next week, the combustion demand remains weak, and the subsequent price will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data - From June 22 - 27, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different trends. For example, South China LPG price changes from 4695 on June 22 to 4710 on June 27, with a daily change of - 45 on the 27th. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4590. The 08 - 09 spread of PG is 94, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1]. Weekly View - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. The market is bullish at the beginning of the week due to geopolitical tensions, but then is under pressure as overall supply is high, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle East situation leads to a sharp drop in oil prices. The basis of PG strengthens to 345. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, the profit of PDH spot production improves, and the profit calculated by paper goods rises. The profit of alkylation oil increases significantly, the profit of MTBE gas - fraction etherification remains basically flat, and the profit of isomerization etherification rises. In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increase due to more arrivals, factory inventories increase slightly with regional differentiation (East China destocks, South China and Shandong build up inventories), and external sales increase. The operating rate of PDH rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and the operating rate of alkylation is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), with MTBE production basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 (+0) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Expected supply to increase, chemical demand to rise, and combustion demand to be weak, with an overall weak fundamental situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4510, in East China decreased by 12 to 4505, and in South China decreased by 50 to 4750; etherified C4 decreased by 60 to 4680; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4510 [1] - CP import cost slightly increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit slightly increased; PG futures prices were strong, with the 06 contract basis at -28 (latest 85), the 06 - 07 monthly spread at -8 (latest 87), and the 07 - 09 monthly spread at 3 (latest 156); the US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - Civil gas prices significantly declined, etherified C4 rebounded, the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; PG futures prices declined due to weak spot prices; the 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference significantly declined, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Supply and Demand - Arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat; the commercial volume slightly increased and was expected to continue increasing; at the same time, expected arrivals were expected to increase [1] - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production gross profit declined, and PDH operation was expected to continue to rebound next week; alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability significantly declined to -40.5 (-308), and operation was expected to slightly increase next week [1] - MTBE prices generally declined by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, profits from gas fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined; expected MTBE supply to fluctuate narrowly, gasoline demand difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

内外套日报 alt 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/26 最 新 品 神 进 □ 利 润 / 内 外 价 日期 类别 品种 进口利润/内外价差 Cotlook 1%关税进口利润 2025/05/23 农产品 M级美棉141%关税进口利润 2025/05/23 农产品 -19744 巴西大豆榨利：3月 2025/05/23 农产品 -55 2025/05/23 1H 衣产品 美湾大豆榨利：7月 员IT - 2025/05/23 农产品 美湾大豆榨利：11月 - 2025/05/23 农产品 豆油进口利润：5月 - 2025/05/23 农产品 豆油进口利润：9月 - 2025/05/23 17 农产品 豆油进口利润：1月 - 員H 2025/05/23 农产品 棕榈油进口利润：1月 - 2025/05/23 农产品 棕榈油进口利润：5月 - 2025/05/23 农产品 棕榈油进口利润：9月 -545 2025/05/23 F 铁矿 铁矿内外价差 ○ - 圆H 2025/05/23 能源 高硫内外价差 9 2025/05/23 能源 低硫内外价差 14 2025/05/23 能源 SC-BRT价差 -2 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are generally weak, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price Changes - On Friday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong decreased by 30 to 4460, in East China by 30 to 4493, and in South China by 20 to 4820; for imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 26 to 4953 and in South China by 20 to 4940; the price of ether - post - carbon four remained stable at 4740, and the lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4460 [1] - The PG futures market was weak, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 385, the 06 - 07 monthly spread remained flat at 54, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread slightly strengthened to 127; the US to Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1] - Civil gas prices dropped significantly, ether - post - carbon four prices rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; the PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] External Market Conditions - FEI and MB prices fell, CP prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference decreased significantly, and FEI - MOPJ decreased slightly; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Fundamentals - Port arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat [1] - In terms of supply, the commercial volume increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase; at the same time, expected arrivals are expected to increase [1] Demand Conditions - The PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margins declined, and the PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week [1] - The alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability dropped significantly to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [1] - MTBE prices generally fell by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. It is expected that MTBE supply will fluctuate slightly, gasoline demand will be difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG supply is expected to gradually increase, chemical demand is expected to recover, and combustion demand will continue to decline. Overall, the LPG market may continue its oscillating downward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4490, in East China decreased by 58 to 4523, and in South China remained stable at 4840. For imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 11 to 4979, and in South China increased by 10 to 4960. The price of etherified C4 remained stable at 4740. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490. The PG futures market showed weak performance, with the basis of the 06 contract strengthening to 309, the 06 - 07 monthly spread remaining unchanged at 54, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread slightly weakening to 130. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Changes - Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with prices in South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong etherified C4. The center of gravity of the PG futures market moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 81 (-23), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 76 (-8). After the tariff easing, the overseas prices increased, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly rising to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargo decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - foreign price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East increased slightly, reaching 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, high arrival volumes and little change in demand led to inventory accumulation at ports, while factory inventories remained basically unchanged. The domestic LPG commercial volume was 504,100 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease. In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), but production margins recovered, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1,100), and the profit increased significantly to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%), with the operating rate expected to increase slightly next week. Crude oil rebound pushed MTBE prices up from a decline, but due to limited supply, stable exports, manufacturers' intention to hold prices, and increased downstream resistance, MTBE prices are expected to decline slightly. In terms of combustion demand, as the temperature rises, it is expected to decline [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to gradually increase in supply, with chemical demand expected to recover and combustion demand continuing to decline. Overall, it may continue the trend of fluctuating downward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: On Friday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong decreased by 10 to 4590, in East China decreased by 3 to 4906, and remained stable in South China at 4940; for imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 8 to 5045, and in South China decreased by 10 to 5040; etherified C4 decreased by 12 to 4520. The PG futures price declined, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 256, the spread between 06 - 07 contracts slightly weakened to 81, and the spread between 07 - 09 contracts remained basically flat at 159. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The PG futures center of gravity moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the spread between 06 - 07 contracts was 81 (-23), and the spread between 07 - 08 contracts was 76 (-8). After the tariff eased, the overseas prices rose, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly increasing to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargoes decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - overseas price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East slightly increased to 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: High arrival volumes and little change in demand led to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory remained basically flat. The LPG commercial volume was 50.41 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease [1]. - **Chemical Demand**: The PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), and production margins recovered. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will slightly increase next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1100), and the profit significantly expanded to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%). It is expected that the operating rate will slightly increase next week. Crude oil rebound drove MTBE to stop falling and rise. With low supply, stable exports, and manufacturers' intention to support prices, but increasing downstream resistance, it is expected that MTBE will slightly decline, but the overall decline will be limited [1]. - **Combustion Demand**: With the increase in temperature, combustion demand is expected to show a downward trend [1].

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