共和党内反对票若超过3张将导致法案受阻。 在刚刚过去的周末，美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"减税法案通过关键投票程序，正式进入最终辩论和 表决阶段，但立法进程仍面临严峻挑战。 当地时间6月30日，参议院将启动马拉松式表决程序，议员可提出无限数量的修正案，并就此进行长达 十余个小时的投票。 目前，美国共和党内部就法案内容出现明显分歧，考虑到该党在参议院仅拥有53个席位，党内反对票若 超过3张将导致法案受阻。特朗普希望在7月4日前通过法案，因此近日持续通过社交媒体向持异议的共 和党议员施压。 值得注意的是，特斯拉首席执行官马斯克（Elon Musk）在29日也再次通过社交媒体攻击该法案。这也 是他与特朗普在该问题上产生公开分歧后的首次表态。"最新的参议院法案草案将摧毁美国数百万个就 业机会，并对我们的国家造成巨大的战略损害！"他称，这一法案"完全疯狂且具有破坏性"，为传统产 业提供补贴，同时"严重损害未来的产业"。 与此同时，特朗普也在密切监控立法进程，并迅速通过社交媒体反击批评者。例如，针对蒂利斯的反对 立场，特朗普直接威胁将在初选中支持其挑战者，并敦促财政鹰派不要"过于极端"。他写道："对于所 有主张削减开支的 ...

Group 1: US Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Trump believes there is no need to extend the tariff deadline of July 9, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [4] - The US Senate will begin voting on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [4] - Trump suggests that the US should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [4] - A poll shows President Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [4] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, but the impact of tariffs may delay these cuts [4] - The Bank for International Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [4] - The Congressional Budget Office reports that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [4] Group 2: International Trade Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US [4] - A poll in Japan shows that the support rate for the Shigeru Ishiba cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [4] - The trade agreement reducing tariffs on UK automotive and aircraft parts has come into effect [4]

美国国会预算办公室：特朗普减税法案将导致赤字增加3.3万亿美元。 ...

美国国会预算办公室：参议院版本的特朗普减税法案将在未来十年内增加3.3万亿美元的美国债务。 ...

据媒体报道，特朗普总统力推的所谓"大而美"的减税法案已经在美国参议院获得通过。 在这项特朗普总统称之为"大而美"的减税法案中，包括了4.5万亿美元的减税计划，还将大幅提升美国 国债的上限等等。早在特朗普去年竞选美国总统时，他就提出了上述计划。特朗普总统认为，这项法案 能够极大地刺激美国经济的增长，并使围绕美国国债上限的党争问题在很大程度上得到缓解。 不过，包括特斯拉首席执行官马斯克在内的一些政商人士认为，在美国财政赤字不断攀升和美国国债规 模不断膨胀的背景下，这项"大而美"的减税法案不仅不能够提振美国经济，反而会导致美国经济陷入更 加危险的境地。 另外，有机构认为这项法案中包括了取消新能源产业的补贴和削减民众医疗补贴等内容，会对新兴产业 和普通民众的生活造成负面冲击。 不过，在特朗普总统看来，这项"大而美"的法案是他力图使"美国再次伟大"的一系列政策中的重要一 项，正如他已经推出的一系列关税政策一样。 笔者认为，特朗普总统的"大而美"法案很可能在执行初期会对美国经济起到一定的刺激和支撑作用，然 而从长远角度来看，未来这项法案给美国经济造成的伤害很可能远大于其带来的益处，甚至会加速美国 经济的衰落。 Jerry ...

Core Points - The Senate Republicans have unveiled a revised tax and healthcare provision of Trump's multi-trillion dollar economic plan, aiming for passage before July 4 [1] - The new version increases the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, up from the $4 trillion proposed by the House, while largely adhering to the House framework [1] - The absence of an agreement on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction is notable, with the current $10,000 SALT deduction cap retained as a transitional measure [1] Tax Policy Implications - The legislation largely extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts for families and small businesses, which are set to expire at the end of 2025 [1] - New tax relief measures are included, such as the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime, as promised by the President during the campaign [1]

美国财政部长贝森特表示，关于共和党标志性的减税法案对预算赤字的影响，存在许多不同的评估，他 自己的预期是该法案将在生效后的十年内令联邦借款减少。贝森特在参议院财政委员会听证会上回答提 问时表示，对税收法案有"各不相同的评估"，"我的看法是，在10年期间，它将会下降。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the upcoming 30-year Treasury bond auction, which will provide insights into investor demand amid concerns over the expanding fiscal deficit [1] Group 1: Auction Details - The auction will have a size of $22 billion and is scheduled for 1 PM New York time [1] - This auction is part of the government's regular borrowing operations [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The auction coincides with Congress's review of a significant tax cut proposal by Donald Trump, which is predicted to increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions of dollars [1] - The potential increase in the budget gap may necessitate the issuance of more bonds to fund government spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, criticized the "capital tax" provision in the tax legislation draft, stating it is filled with misinformation and emphasized that the tax reduction bill is a fiscal measure rather than a retaliatory one [1] Group 1 - The "capital tax" provision contains numerous inaccuracies according to the U.S. Treasury Secretary [1] - The tax reduction bill is characterized as a fiscal bill, not a measure for retaliation [1]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250609 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，关注流动性宽 松对于短端利率下行的支撑 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 我们在延续上周观点的基础上，结合增量数据，思考如下： （1）Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 终值同步扩张，通胀压力增加，新增 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 徐沐阳 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523060003 证券分析师 陈伯铭 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《建议关注核心科技题材转债》 2025-06-08 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250602- 20250606）》 2025-06-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，重启买入国债讨论 ...