"大而美"法案闯关 特朗普的"大而美法案"本周可能会左右市场。 上周末，法案在国会参议院遭遇强力阻击。白宫方面表示，希望在7月4日独立日之前签署该法案。去年 11月，特朗普在总统选举中获胜后一度推高市场，其中一个原因是特朗普承诺削减公司税；较低的公司 税率预计将有利于降低企业的成本。 标普500指数创下反弹新高最快纪录。 在4月初触底后，美股三大股指在美国总统特朗普关税立场软化后开启了一轮强劲反弹，标普500指数和 纳指重新刷新历史新高，特朗普也在社交媒体上晒图庆祝。其中标普500指数在不到三个月时间内市值 增长超10万亿美元，并刷新指数高位下跌15%以上重新突破新高的最短纪录。 历史数据显示，7月是美股表现最好的月份之一。接下去，投资者还需要关注哪些宏观事件的影响？ 回顾历史，特朗普在2017年的《减税和就业法案》中削减了公司税，其中许多减税措施将于2025年底到 期。摩根士丹利财富管理市场研究和战略团队主管司凯丽（Dan Skelly）表示，"在2017-2018年，公司 税率从35%下降到21%。这对整体公司收益的一阶导数影响相当大。这一次，我认为它的意义会降 低。"他认为，如果国会不通过新税收法案，那 ...

共和党内反对票若超过3张将导致法案受阻。 在刚刚过去的周末，美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"减税法案通过关键投票程序，正式进入最终辩论和 表决阶段，但立法进程仍面临严峻挑战。 当地时间6月30日，参议院将启动马拉松式表决程序，议员可提出无限数量的修正案，并就此进行长达 十余个小时的投票。 目前，美国共和党内部就法案内容出现明显分歧，考虑到该党在参议院仅拥有53个席位，党内反对票若 超过3张将导致法案受阻。特朗普希望在7月4日前通过法案，因此近日持续通过社交媒体向持异议的共 和党议员施压。 值得注意的是，特斯拉首席执行官马斯克（Elon Musk）在29日也再次通过社交媒体攻击该法案。这也 是他与特朗普在该问题上产生公开分歧后的首次表态。"最新的参议院法案草案将摧毁美国数百万个就 业机会，并对我们的国家造成巨大的战略损害！"他称，这一法案"完全疯狂且具有破坏性"，为传统产 业提供补贴，同时"严重损害未来的产业"。 与此同时，特朗普也在密切监控立法进程，并迅速通过社交媒体反击批评者。例如，针对蒂利斯的反对 立场，特朗普直接威胁将在初选中支持其挑战者，并敦促财政鹰派不要"过于极端"。他写道："对于所 有主张削减开支的 ...

Group 1: US Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Trump believes there is no need to extend the tariff deadline of July 9, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [4] - The US Senate will begin voting on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [4] - Trump suggests that the US should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [4] - A poll shows President Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [4] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, but the impact of tariffs may delay these cuts [4] - The Bank for International Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [4] - The Congressional Budget Office reports that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [4] Group 2: International Trade Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US [4] - A poll in Japan shows that the support rate for the Shigeru Ishiba cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [4] - The trade agreement reducing tariffs on UK automotive and aircraft parts has come into effect [4]

美国国会预算办公室：特朗普减税法案将导致赤字增加3.3万亿美元。 ...

美国国会预算办公室：参议院版本的特朗普减税法案将在未来十年内增加3.3万亿美元的美国债务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "big and beautiful" tax reform plan promoted by President Trump has passed in the U.S. Senate, which includes a $4.5 trillion tax cut and an increase in the U.S. debt ceiling [2] Group 1: Economic Impact - President Trump believes the tax reform will significantly stimulate U.S. economic growth and alleviate partisan conflicts surrounding the debt ceiling [2] - Some business leaders, including Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, argue that the increasing fiscal deficit and expanding national debt will not boost the economy but may lead to greater economic risks [2] Group 2: Policy Implications - The tax reform plan includes the elimination of subsidies for the renewable energy sector and cuts to healthcare subsidies, which could negatively impact emerging industries and the general public [2] - The plan is viewed as a crucial part of Trump's broader agenda to "make America great again," similar to his previously implemented tariff policies [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Initial implementation of the tax reform may provide some economic stimulus and support; however, the long-term damage to the U.S. economy could outweigh the benefits, potentially accelerating economic decline [2]

Core Points - The Senate Republicans have unveiled a revised tax and healthcare provision of Trump's multi-trillion dollar economic plan, aiming for passage before July 4 [1] - The new version increases the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, up from the $4 trillion proposed by the House, while largely adhering to the House framework [1] - The absence of an agreement on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction is notable, with the current $10,000 SALT deduction cap retained as a transitional measure [1] Tax Policy Implications - The legislation largely extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts for families and small businesses, which are set to expire at the end of 2025 [1] - New tax relief measures are included, such as the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime, as promised by the President during the campaign [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed that there are various assessments regarding the impact of the Republican tax cut bill on the budget deficit, but he anticipates that the bill will reduce federal borrowing over the next ten years [1] Group 1 - Becerra stated that there are "various assessments" regarding the tax bill [1] - He believes that the tax bill will lead to a decrease in federal borrowing over a ten-year period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the upcoming 30-year Treasury bond auction, which will provide insights into investor demand amid concerns over the expanding fiscal deficit [1] Group 1: Auction Details - The auction will have a size of $22 billion and is scheduled for 1 PM New York time [1] - This auction is part of the government's regular borrowing operations [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The auction coincides with Congress's review of a significant tax cut proposal by Donald Trump, which is predicted to increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions of dollars [1] - The potential increase in the budget gap may necessitate the issuance of more bonds to fund government spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, criticized the "capital tax" provision in the tax legislation draft, stating it is filled with misinformation and emphasized that the tax reduction bill is a fiscal measure rather than a retaliatory one [1] Group 1 - The "capital tax" provision contains numerous inaccuracies according to the U.S. Treasury Secretary [1] - The tax reduction bill is characterized as a fiscal bill, not a measure for retaliation [1]