Group 1: Market Overview - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 59,200 yuan/ton, and for N-type granular silicon is 55,800 yuan/ton, both remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a lack of significant transactions, with only a few companies achieving minor exploratory orders [1] - The current market situation is attributed to two main factors: limited actual demand pull due to pre-emptive demand for 2025 and rising production costs driven by high silver prices [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association expects the monthly polysilicon output to drop to a range of 70,000 to 90,000 tons in Q1 [1] - The production of silicon wafers is expected to remain stable, with supply and demand for silicon materials generally matching, leading to a slight consumption of social inventory [1] - The operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers has continued to decline, which may reduce monthly output and alleviate market supply pressure [2] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The average transaction prices for silicon wafers are stable, with 183N at 1.31 yuan/piece, 210RN at 1.42 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.66 yuan/piece [2] - Despite rising costs due to increasing silver prices, the overall market demand for terminal installations remains weak, leading to a lack of large-scale purchasing orders [2] - The average price for battery cells has increased to 0.40 yuan/W, with some leading manufacturers quoting above 0.42 yuan/W [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market outlook suggests that overseas demand may improve in Q1 due to export tax rebate policies, providing some support for the silicon wafer market [2] - However, the overall weak demand for terminal installations and the cost pressures on battery manufacturers may lead to a continued weak market for silicon wafers [2] - The rising silver prices are significantly impacting the battery manufacturing costs, which may restrict the production willingness of battery manufacturers [3]

一则出口退税的消息将碳酸锂价格推上高潮，期货合约全面涨停，近期以势不可挡的趋势，走出了加速通道，1月份短短7个交易日涨幅已高达40%，锂电板 块迎来狂欢。 智通财经APP了解到，近日财政部、税务总局近日发布的公告，自2026年4月1日起至12月31日，电池产品增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%，2027年1月1日 起彻底取消。受该消息提振，碳酸锂期货合约全面涨停，其中主力合约2605一字涨停，次日主力合约再次涨停，而2026年开年以来涨幅已达40%。港A股锂 电板块跟随大涨，AH龙头赣锋锂业（01772）领涨，港股两日涨幅近10%。 供需仍偏紧，有利润空间下游或博弈 从供给端来看，目前供需基本达成平衡，2025年12月份需求量总需求量已超过总供给量，1月份预期偏紧状态。而库存方面，去年下半年开始就持续性去 库，加上期间停产及检修，库存基本见底，这也导致了政策驱动下的抢货潮。从趋势上看，政策依旧是后期产能供给最核心的影响要素。 碳酸锂"产能"未来有缩紧的预期，主要为2026年"反内卷"仍为行业主题，在政策上综合整治"内卷式"竞争，对新增产能进行严控。在今年1月份，政府部门 印发《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to eliminate export tax rebates for photovoltaic (PV) components starting April 1, 2026, and reduce the rebate for power batteries from 9% to 6%, with a complete removal by 2027. This shift reflects the strength of China's PV and battery industries, which no longer require such subsidies to compete globally [2][5][9]. Group 1: Export Tax Rebate Changes - The export tax rebate policy was originally designed to encourage exports by refunding value-added tax to exporters, effectively acting as a form of trade subsidy [3]. - The rebate for PV components will be completely removed due to China's dominant market position, with over 60% global market share and some core components exceeding 80% [5][7]. - The power battery export rebate will be reduced and phased out, as China has established a strong competitive advantage in this sector, with only a few global competitors [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The removal of export rebates aims to combat price wars that have led to unsustainable low pricing, which could harm long-term competitiveness and innovation in the PV sector [5][7]. - The government is promoting a shift from price competition to technological innovation, which is essential for maintaining high profit margins and fostering industry growth [7]. - The cancellation of export subsidies is seen as a way to redirect financial resources towards domestic consumption, rather than subsidizing exports, as China's trade surplus has reached unprecedented levels [9][11]. Group 3: Future Investment Focus - The funds saved from eliminating export tax rebates are intended to be reinvested in domestic consumption, such as housing, automotive purchases, and public services [11]. - This strategic pivot indicates a significant shift in China's economic policy, focusing on internal market stimulation rather than solely on export-driven growth [11].

1月9日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，宣布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏产品增值税出口退税。这意味着光伏 的"退税补贴时代"即将结束。 源：中华人民共和国财政部 出口退税指退返出口企业在国内缴纳的增值税，由于企业在海外国家还要缴税，为避免重复缴税，提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税 政策。 现行光伏产品的增值税出口退税的税率为9%。2024年11月15日，财政部、税务总局发布关于调整出口退税政策的公告称，2024年12月1日起，光伏产品出 口退税从13%下降至9%。 行业分析机构SMM分析，此次出口退税明确取消时间后，光伏产品尤其以光伏组件产品受到冲击最大，其主要影响为企业直接成本增加以及价格竞争力 度下降。"相当于每块210R组件，出口利润将减少46~51元/块，企业出口毛利率将被压缩，企业出口成本增加。"SMM光伏分析师郑天鸿表示。 中国光伏行业协会指出，自2024年以来，我国光伏产品在海外市场面临日益激烈的恶性竞争，出口价格持续走低，呈现"量增价减"态势。部分企业在出口 过程中，不仅低价竞争还将出口退税额折算为对外议价空间，导致原本用于对冲国内增值税 ...

在一年多前从13%降至9%后，中国光伏产品的出口退税政策即将画上句号。 1月9日，中国财政部和国家税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税， 公告所列产品适用的出口退税率以出口货物报关单注明的出口日期界定。这意味着，实施了十余年后这 项关键政策将正式退出历史舞台。 贝壳财经记者在采访中了解到，光伏出口退税率"归零"在短期内可能刺激海外客户"抢单"，带来一波出 口需求前置。将时间维度拉长，光伏产品出口退税的取消，或将加速催化行业优胜劣汰，以及推动企业 布局海外产能。 有光伏头部企业表示，取消光伏出口退税会推动光伏产品的价格上涨，推动光伏向更高价值、更好的技 术、产品升级，推动优质产品出口，同时也极大地避免了内卷外溢。 短期或刺激海外客户"抢单" 所谓出口退税是指在国际贸易业务中，对我国报关出口的货物退还在国内各生产环节和流转环节按税法 规定缴纳的增值税和消费税，即出口环节免税且退还以前纳税环节的已纳税款。 贝壳财经记者了解到，光伏产品的增值税退税历史可追溯至2013年，当时财政部与国家税务总局为了鼓 励利用太阳能发电，促进相关产业健康发展，实行了增值税即征即退50%的政策。随着产业 ...

市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一定预期。 本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 动。未经我公司同意,任何人不得对不能看进行任何龙式的发布、复制或对不批告进行有序俱意的册节和 数据采源:wind ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the off - season for winter maintenance, the overall supply reduction was weak. They face significant inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [152] - Although the domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in a loss, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive a quick profit recovery, but it may not be sustainable for more than three months [152] - On the demand side, caustic soda is affected by the negative feedback from the low profit of alumina, while PVC faces the weak real - estate demand [152] - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, and its forward futures prices between 2150 - 2300 have long - allocation value. PVC has large profit losses, but the forward premium restricts the market from trading low - valuation factors [152] - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC are expected to have a wide - range volatile market. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [152] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basics and View Overview - Caustic soda: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state. The current supply shows high production and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The demand from the alumina industry is difficult to expand significantly, and non - aluminum demand is facing a decline in the off - season. The valuation may be on the high side, and the short - term trend is likely to be weak. The recommended strategies are unilateral short, calendar spread reversal, and no cross - variety strategy [5] - PVC: Expected to run weakly. The current situation is high production and high inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. Domestic demand is weak, especially related to the real - estate industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates will increase long - term export competition pressure. The recommended strategy is unilateral range - bound operation for the 05 contract, with an upper pressure level of 4900 and a lower support level of 4600 - 4700, and no calendar spread or cross - variety strategies [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Short - sellers' main logic: High supply and high inventory, with the inventory of caustic soda sample enterprises up 76% year - on - year; continuous alumina production cut expectations; about 3% of new capacity in the next year, while most non - aluminum downstream demand only grows at 2 - 3%; slowdown in export growth, limited support from the 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread structure; changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums/discounts [10] - Long - sellers' main logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits, low absolute prices, and a small forward premium, offering high potential returns; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda + PVC, with possible more - than - expected maintenance or production cuts in 2026; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants, continuous expansion of the export market [10] - Core contradictions: Weak willingness to cut production on the supply side, and demand expansion is affected by low profits [12] - The basis of caustic soda 03 is weakening, and the 3 - 5 spread is also weakening [13] - Although the export market still has support, it is also facing structural adjustment. In 2025 from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [17][20] - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, currently around $350 per dry ton. The CIF price in Southeast Asia is $400 per dry ton, a decrease of $20 per dry ton from December 23. There is little market discussion, and Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [21][25] - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda is also acceptable. The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali is declining, which is negative for caustic soda. The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali has always been an advanced indicator of the market, and the current spread of 10 yuan per ton is a negative signal [27][31][34] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market structure: Rising production and rising inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 495,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [38][40] - Maintenance situation: There is less maintenance in January 2026. Some enterprises have ongoing or planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest, Zhejiang Juhua and Ningbo Wanhua in the East, etc. [43][44] - New capacity: In 2026, caustic soda capacity will continue to be put into production, with a growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new capacity is 2.94 million tons [46] - Cost: In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The marginal cost of Shandong's caustic soda production is calculated to be 2,122 yuan per ton. The price of liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [47][50][51] - Downstream of chlorine consumption: The production of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform is stable, and the profits are recovering. The stable operation of the downstream of chlorine consumption has less impact on the production reduction of caustic soda enterprises [54][59][64] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina industry: In 2025, the alumina capacity expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, with more concentrated production in the first half of the year. However, the alumina industry is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses. The alumina plants may reduce production in the future, which will suppress the demand for caustic soda [72][74][76] - Other industries: The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profits are continuously being compressed. Although new pulp capacity is being put into production, the demand for caustic soda is not expected to increase significantly. The production of viscose staple fiber has increased, while the dyeing and finishing industry has declined. The water treatment industry and the ternary precursor industry have also seen a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in the overall demand for caustic soda [86][98][100] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - Short - sellers' main logic: High supply and high inventory, with the PVC social inventory sample increasing nearly 40% year - on - year; weak domestic demand, especially in the real - estate sector; slowdown in export growth and reduced export competitiveness due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [107] - Long - sellers' main logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits and low absolute prices; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda + PVC, with the marginal device in Shandong approaching the cash - flow cost in December 2025; no new PVC capacity will be put into production in 2026; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants, continuous expansion of the export market [108] - Core contradictions: The large forward premium of futures contracts [110] - The basis of the PVC main contract is oscillating strongly [111] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. There is less maintenance in January 2026. In 2026, except for the capacity release of Jiahua, there will be no new PVC capacity. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is recovering [118][121][123] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly improved. The overall downstream PVC operating rate has declined month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened. The single - month export volume decreased by 11.78% month - on - month, although it increased by 29.64% year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 47.17% year - on - year. The cancellation of export tax rebates from April 1, 2026, will increase future competition pressure. The demand from Southeast Asia and Central Asia is stable. The PVC warehouse receipts have declined but are still at a high level [130][136][143]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase PVC export costs, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. There is certain negative sentiment in the short - term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For the 2605 contract, the reference range is 4700 - 4900, and investors can consider the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC contracts is stable and higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread is also stable compared to the previous period and higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, with expectations stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread is stable compared to the previous period and lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounds slightly compared to the previous period but is weaker year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Supply End - In 2025, the new PVC production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity is planned, and the expansion of PVC production capacity is coming to an end. Last week, PVC output was 487,900 tons, a 0.83% increase from the previous week and a 4.03% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the increased load of some devices [25]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC is 20.25 million tons, accounting for about 69.8%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week and the same as the same period last year [28]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC is 8.77 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. Last week, the output was 144,500 tons, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 14.96% increase year - on - year [32]. - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.67%, a 1.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.33 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 124,500 tons [36]. - Last week, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, a 0.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.41 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period [39]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 202,100 tons, a 1.46% increase year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 17.63 million tons, a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Demand End - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.901 million tons, a 0.99% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC production and sales rate was 186%, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 50 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [49]. - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PVC products remained at a low level. This is mainly due to the slowdown of construction in winter, the suspension of construction sites in the north, the entry of municipal and infrastructure project demand into the seasonal off - season, and the decrease in demand for pipes due to the sluggish real estate market [53]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations were India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November, and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [61]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year. The main destinations were Europe and the United States. Affected by trade frictions and weak external demand, the export of products continued to shrink [63]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 1.1141 million tons, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 44.71% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 328,200 tons, a 6.14% increase from the previous week and a 27.36% increase year - on - year. Both social and enterprise inventories increased [69][76]. 3.5 Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke was stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide rebounded slightly compared to the previous period, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,400 yuan/ton [80]. - Last week, the price of ethylene was weakly stable and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years [84]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly compared to the previous period and was at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine first increased and then decreased, and was higher year - on - year [88]. - Last week, the loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC production decreased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC also decreased, and the year - on - year loss decreased [91]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased year - on - year [95].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic products indicates a significant shift in the industry, with the cancellation of VAT export rebates expected to impact pricing and competition dynamics in the solar sector [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - The adjustment follows a previous reduction in export rebates for photovoltaic products at the end of 2024, with industry speculation about a complete cancellation since mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to lead to an increase in photovoltaic product prices, potentially accelerating the industry's consolidation and pushing for upgrades to higher-value and more advanced technology products [1]. - Industry insiders indicate that the current pricing strategy of selling photovoltaic components at or below cost will be challenged, particularly affecting the competitiveness of second and third-tier companies [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the industry has faced intense competition in overseas markets, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" trend, which has negatively impacted domestic profits and increased the risk of international trade disputes [2]. Group 3: Export Trends - The export structure of Chinese photovoltaic products is shifting from a focus on component exports to upstream product exports, with a reported 13.2% year-on-year decline in export value from January to October 2025, amounting to a decrease of $24.42 billion [4]. - In the first ten months of 2025, the photovoltaic industry exported 218 GW of components, 88 GW of battery cells, and 58 GW of silicon wafers, compared to 206 GW, 46 GW, and 23 GW in the same period of 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, marking the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the solar industry [3]. Summary by Sections Impact on the Industry - The cancellation of the export rebate, currently at 9%, is expected to significantly impact PV component manufacturers, leading to increased direct costs and reduced price competitiveness [3]. - Analysts predict that the profit margin for exporting a 210R PV component will decrease by 46 to 51 yuan, compressing the gross profit margin for exporting companies [3]. - Companies are likely to renegotiate export prices, transferring the increased costs to overseas customers, which may lead to a short-term surge in export volumes as companies rush to fulfill orders before the rebate ends [4]. Market Dynamics - The cancellation is anticipated to accelerate the exit of less competitive domestic firms, while leading companies and high-tech firms may gain market share due to their scale and technological advantages [4]. - In the short term, there may be a spike in demand from overseas clients as they seek to place orders before the price increase, potentially alleviating pessimistic expectations within the industry [4]. Long-term Outlook - Long-term projections indicate a potential decline in PV component exports by 5% to 10% following the rebate cancellation, with a notable drop in overseas demand [4]. - The gross profit margins for exporting companies are expected to decrease, raising concerns about cash flow risks for these businesses [4]. Industry Reactions - A representative from a domestic second-tier PV company expressed that the rebate cancellation would severely impact all companies, not just smaller ones, as many firms rely heavily on the rebate for profitability [4]. - Some industry experts view the cancellation as a necessary measure to combat unhealthy price competition, suggesting that it could help stabilize market prices and reduce trade friction [5][6]. Regulatory Perspective - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association supports the adjustment of export rebates as a means to promote rational pricing in foreign markets and alleviate the fiscal burden on the government [5][6]. - The association acknowledges that while adjusting export rebates is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges, it can help mitigate rapid declines in export prices and lower the likelihood of trade disputes [6].