年初至今，新药放量+Biotech逐步减亏盈利+重磅BD频出催化创新药大行情。自三生制药拿下辉瑞60亿美元BD后，再度印证了中国创新药领域在全球的竞 争力，近期整个市场都在"疯狂"挖掘下一个重磅BD。 事实上，在众多免疫系统疾病中，特应性皮炎是一种常见的高发的疾病，尤其是在儿童人群中高发，其所带来的皮肤瘙痒以及皮肤破损，严重影响患者的生 活质量。然而目前现有治疗方案无法完全达到兼顾快速止痒、皮损改善和安全性的效果。 流行病学研究显示，全球AD患者数至少2.3亿人，我国AD患者群体庞大，超过7000万人，其中中重度AD占比约达28%。对比之下，美国预计AD成人患者数 在1650万，中重度AD占比约占40%。庞大的患者群体意味着AD市场存在着巨大潜力，也推动药企加速开发差异化疗法。 6月3日，中国抗体的股价迅速拉升，盘中股价涨幅一度达到45.75%，最终收盘价2港元，收涨30.72%；6月4日，中国抗体股价继续大涨，盘中最高价触及 2.99港元，创下自2022年2月以来股价新高，后收涨42.5%，两个交易日股价涨幅高达86.27%，这也是市场预期中国抗体创新加速，押注公司未来重磅BD交 易的真实反应。 例如，安进 ...

6月4日，港股午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.72%，恒生科技指数涨1.01%，中证港股通创新药指数 (931250.CSI)上涨3.79%，信达生物上涨15.07%，再鼎医药涨10.97%，泰格医药涨超9%。 相关ETF方面，港股创新药50ETF（513780）早盘涨4%，盘中最高价达1.391元创历史新高，成交额为 2.99亿元，暂居同标的产品第一。资金流向方面，截至6月3日，该ETF已连续3个交易日获资金净流 入，累计净流入额为6333.69万元。该ETF最新流通份额为4.19亿份，最新流通规模为5.53亿元。值得一 提的是，截至6月4日午间收盘，港股创新药50ETF（513780）年内涨超45%。 港股创新药50ETF(513780.SH)紧密跟踪中证港股通创新药指数(931250.CSI)，中证港股通创新药指数从 港股通范围内选取50只业务涉及创新药研发以及为制药企业提供药物研究、开发和生产等服务的上市公 司证券作为指数样本，以反映港股通范围内创新药上市公司证券的整体表现。该ETF配备了2只场外联 接基金（A：023597/C：023598）。 全球来看，BD交易早已存在，买方通常是手握充沛现金流的知名大药 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant growth, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index rising by 3.97% as of June 4, 2025, and notable increases in individual stocks such as Innovent Biologics (up 16.22%) and Zai Lab (up 8.07%) [1] - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical ETF has shown strong performance, with a weekly increase of 4.31% and a current price of 0.8 yuan, indicating active market trading with a turnover rate of 19.73% [1] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is rapidly developing, with a 26% year-on-year increase in the total transaction amount for License-out deals, reaching $51.9 billion in 2024, highlighting the growing international recognition of Chinese innovative drugs [2] Group 2 - The number of oral presentations for Chinese innovative drug assets at ASCO reached a record high of 73, indicating a robust pipeline and increasing investor interest in the sector [2] - The CSI Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Innovation Index rose by 0.55% as of June 4, 2025, with significant contributions from stocks like Kelun Pharmaceutical (up 5.37%) and Bai Li Tianheng (up 2.65%) [4] - The Medical Innovation ETF has a current scale of 1.516 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor confidence and market activity [4][5] Group 3 - Leveraged funds are increasingly investing in the Medical Innovation ETF, with a latest financing buy-in amount of 1.2824 million yuan and a financing balance of 50.9157 million yuan [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Innovation Index account for 66.57% of the index, indicating a concentration of investment in leading companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index represent 60.77% of the index, showcasing the dominance of key players like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses significant licensing agreements in the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the collaboration between Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) and BioNTech for the development of BNT327, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-L1 and VEGF-A, with a total potential payment of up to $11.1 billion [1][2][6]. Group 1: Licensing Agreements - BMS will pay BioNTech an upfront fee of $1.5 billion and up to $2 billion in annual payments before 2028, along with milestone payments that could total $7.6 billion [1][2]. - The agreement allows for shared global profits and losses between BMS and BioNTech, marking a shift from traditional licensing models [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The PD-(L)1 market is projected to reach $52.5 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2021 to 2024, and the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibodies are expected to become a cornerstone in a market potentially exceeding $100 billion by 2028 [3][4]. - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is also growing rapidly, with a projected size of $14.5 billion by 2024 and a CAGR of 40% from 2021 to 2024 [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The article highlights a trend where multinational corporations are increasingly partnering with Chinese biotech firms to enhance their pipelines, driven by the need to overcome patent cliffs and the high cost of drug development in the U.S. [6][7]. - Chinese innovative drug companies are becoming more competitive, with significant increases in business development (BD) transactions, from $9.2 billion in 2020 to an expected $52.3 billion in 2024 [7][8]. Group 4: Clinical Development and Future Prospects - BioNTech's BNT327 has shown promising clinical trial results for treating locally advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, indicating its potential in a high-demand therapeutic area [2][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of clinical trial execution quality and innovative drug characteristics in negotiating favorable terms in BD transactions [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative pharmaceutical sector in China is transitioning from a "cold winter" to a "warm spring," indicating a new cycle of policy support and development, as evidenced by significant stock price increases in leading companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [2][3]. Market Performance - The innovative drug sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising over 30% year-to-date as of May 26, 2023. Notable companies include Sanofi with a 210.86% increase and WuXi AppTec with a 94.17% increase [2]. - The unprofitable biotech index in Hong Kong has also risen over 39% year-to-date, with companies like Deciphera Pharmaceuticals-B seeing a staggering 456.92% increase [2]. Policy Support - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by strong regulation and a "policy cyclicality." Since 2024, various supportive policies for innovative drugs have been implemented, including insurance funding and procurement adjustments [3]. - The sales of newly negotiated drugs from 2018 to 2024 exceeded 540 billion yuan, indicating significant room for growth in the utilization of medical insurance funds [3]. International Market Presence - Chinese innovative drug companies are increasingly gaining international market influence, with the number of new drugs entering clinical trials surpassing that of the U.S. from 2015 to 2024 [5]. - The number of international multi-center clinical trials in China has risen from 207 to 286 between 2020 and 2023, reflecting a strategic shift towards global markets [6]. Investment Challenges - Despite the growth, Chinese innovative drug companies face challenges in balancing investment and returns, with the average cost of developing a new drug reaching $1.778 billion [7]. - The market's perception of investment returns is cautious, as many companies struggle to achieve the necessary sales to recoup development costs [7]. Business Development (BD) Trends - The trend of business development (BD) has become a significant revenue source for leading innovative drug companies, with Heng Rui Pharmaceutical completing 14 licensing agreements totaling approximately $14 billion [10]. - The global pharmaceutical market has seen a surge in major transactions, with 42% of significant licensing deals in 2025 originating from China [9]. Valuation Shifts - The valuation of unprofitable biotech companies is shifting from a focus on technical pipelines to a comprehensive assessment of commercialization capabilities, indicating a maturation of the investment landscape [13]. - The market is beginning to adopt a "finality thinking" approach to pricing unprofitable drug companies, allowing for short-term losses if core products demonstrate global competitiveness [13]. Future Outlook - The Chinese innovative drug sector is at a critical juncture, with expectations of the first blockbuster drugs generating over $6 billion in annual sales within the next 3-5 years, supported by strong clinical research capabilities and a global commercial framework [16].

Core Insights - The trend of license-out transactions involving Chinese pharmaceutical companies continues into 2025, with over 20 deals reported in Q1 alone, including significant agreements worth over $1 billion [2] - However, there is a concerning "return rate" of 40% for completed license-out transactions from 2020, indicating a growing trend of terminated collaborations [5] - The industry is experiencing a "clearing" phase after a surge in business development (BD) activities, with many companies facing challenges in maintaining partnerships [5][6] Group 1: Business Development Trends - In Q1 2025, notable transactions included Roche's $1 billion deal with Innovent Biologics and Lepu Biopharma's $1.2 billion collaboration with ArriVent [2] - Companies like InnoCare and Baillie Gifford have successfully capitalized on BD opportunities, with InnoCare's license-out deals exceeding $6 billion, contributing to its successful IPO [2] - The overall BD transaction volume is expected to reach new highs in 2025, driven by increased interest from global pharmaceutical companies in Chinese innovative drugs [2] Group 2: Challenges and Terminations - As of April 2025, 25 out of 62 completed license-out transactions from 2020 have been terminated, reflecting a 40% return rate [5] - Recent high-profile disputes include Novo Nordisk's $800 million claim against Henlius for alleged fraud and GAVI's termination of a pre-purchase agreement with Clover Biopharmaceuticals [6] - The primary reasons for these terminations include disappointing clinical data and strategic shifts by the buying companies, leading to increased competition and pressure on Chinese biotech firms [6][8] Group 3: Financial Implications - The milestone achievement rate for Chinese innovative drugs is only 22%, indicating that most companies only receive the initial payment, which typically constitutes 2%-5% of the total deal value [9][11] - The financial impact of terminated collaborations is significant, as companies lose potential milestone payments and face challenges in maintaining market confidence [9][12] - The NewCo model is emerging as a more favorable alternative, allowing for shared risk and deeper collaboration between Chinese firms and multinational corporations [13][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The BD landscape is expected to see an increase in "return" events, as the market matures and companies face heightened scrutiny [15] - Successful future collaborations will require Chinese companies to demonstrate superior clinical data and competitive advantages in the global market [18][19] - The industry must balance the urgency of BD with long-term strategic planning to avoid reliance on potentially volatile partnerships [17][18]