2025年12月29日，科创创新药ETF国泰（589720.SH）收跌1.21%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以 上）净流出709.09万元，居可比基金第一。（数据来源：Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为9776.75万份，最新成交额达8824.50万元，当日主力资金净流出成交额 占比达8.04%。 拉长时间看，该基金近5个交易日有4天主力资金净流出，合计流出1527.58万元，居可比基金第一。 （数据来源：Wind） ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry style continuation and switching perspectives [1] - The strategy update indicates a cumulative net return of approximately 0.53% for the period from December 15 to December 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.66% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2][11] - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 26.72%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 5.86% [2] ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs with their market values and performance, highlighting the following: - Real Estate ETF (3.51 billion) is newly added with a 100% allocation to real estate development, showing a weekly timing signal of -1 [2] - Battery ETF (145.30 billion) continues to be held with a 62.7% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 0 [2] - Innovative Energy ETF (12.02 billion) continues to be held with a 46.04% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 0 [2] - Consumer Electronics ETF (11.41 billion) is newly added with a 46.5% allocation to semiconductors, showing a weekly timing signal of 0 [2] - Grid Equipment ETF (31.17 billion) continues to be held with an 80.77% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 1 [2] - 5G Communication ETF (79.24 billion) is newly added with a 41.2% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 1 [2] Weekly Recommendations - For the week of December 22 to December 26, 2025, the report recommends increasing holdings in sectors such as real estate development, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment, while continuing to hold existing positions in battery, innovative energy, and grid equipment ETFs [11]

科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）跟踪的是科创新药指数（950161），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从科创 板市场中选取涉及生物制药、化学制药等领域的创新药物研发企业作为指数样本，重点关注具有较高研 发投入和创新能力的企业，以反映中国创新药行业上市公司证券的整体表现和发展趋势。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 12月19日早盘，科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）涨超2.1%。 东方财富证券指出，2025年医药生物行业呈现多重积极趋势。医疗器械招采端持续复苏，设备更新政策 与资金落地驱动需求释放，2025Q3招投标市场规模同比增长29.8%，医疗设备公司收入端拐点显现。国 内集采与医疗反腐常态化背景下，企业加速出海寻求高毛利市场。创新药领域经历十年沉淀进入管线密 集收获期，2024年市场规模突破4 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.35 points, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.84% [1][15] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.1 trillion, an increase of over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][15] - The semiconductor equipment and electric grid sectors led the gains, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and coal showed weaker performance [1][15] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 addressed various topics including domestic demand, innovation, anti-involution, and opening up to the outside world [2][16] - The "anti-involution + technological innovation" sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and logical backing, potentially outperforming in the second phase of the bull market [2][16] - The conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [2][16] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its upward potential, supported by anticipated incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, industrial investment, and technological innovation [3][18] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a rebalancing of funds between short-term data and long-term trends, with expectations of a recovery in corporate profits and economic signals [3][18] - A flexible investment strategy combining core positions with satellite rotation is recommended, focusing on ETFs that capture long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese economy [6][20] Sector Performance - The securities sector is experiencing optimism due to the potential for mergers and acquisitions among major brokerages, which could enhance profitability and market expectations [7][22] - The approval of licenses for stablecoin trading by brokerages opens new business opportunities, potentially increasing revenue from transaction fees and attracting new clients [8][23] - The performance of the securities sector is closely tied to market activity, with increased trading volumes likely to boost brokerage revenues across various business lines [7][22] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold being favored as a "store of value" amid inflation and stagnation concerns in the U.S. economy [11][25] - The recent approval of stablecoin trading licenses is expected to create new growth avenues for brokerages, enhancing their performance and market valuation [8][23] - Investors are advised to monitor gold ETFs as they align with the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by systemic risks and economic conditions [12][26]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with both the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% at one point [1] - The Fujian sector showed strong performance, while the battery and shipping sectors faced declines [1] ETF Performance - The S&P Consumer ETF rose by over 2%, with several dividend-related ETFs increasing by more than 1% [1][2] - Specific ETFs and their performance include: - S&P Consumer ETF: 1.417, up 2.53% [2] - Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF: up 1.7% [2] - Hong Kong Dividend Index ETF: 1.683, up 1.57% [2] - Other notable ETFs include the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF and the Hang Seng Dividend ETF, both showing increases [2] Institutional Behavior - Analysts suggest that some institutions may sell high-valuation, volatile growth stocks to lock in annual returns, shifting focus to high-dividend, high-margin safety stocks in the Hong Kong dividend sector [3] - The period from December to January is noted as a peak for insurance premiums, leading some insurance funds to quickly build positions in high-dividend assets to match liability costs, creating a rigid buying pressure [3] Sector Declines - The Media ETF experienced a decline of over 2% [3][4] - Other ETFs in the media and technology sectors also reported losses, including: - Media ETF: down 2.3% [4] - S&P Biotechnology ETF: down 2.2% [4] - Various other ETFs in the entertainment and technology sectors also showed declines [4][5]

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector is showing a positive trend of "high growth and reduced losses," with significant developments in the small nucleic acid drug field, leading to a daily fluctuation of 20% in the innovative drug ETF (589720), which has risen over 3% [1][3] - By the third quarter of 2025, the innovative drug sector achieved a revenue of 48.56 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.41%, while the net profit loss has significantly narrowed [3] - The establishment of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs is expected to create a potential funding pool of approximately 20 billion yuan annually, enhancing the payment channels for high-value innovative drugs [3] Group 2 - The innovative drug ETF (589720) has outperformed Hong Kong's innovative drug sector by nearly 10 percentage points since the "924 market" in 2024, indicating a higher performance recovery elasticity [5] - The innovative drug industry is experiencing broad development opportunities driven by continuous breakthroughs in overseas markets, policy benefits, and the steady improvement of Chinese innovative drug companies' R&D capabilities [4][5] - The small nucleic acid drug field is entering a golden development period characterized by "technological breakthroughs and commercial realization," with advancements in delivery technology expanding indications beyond the liver to cardiovascular and CNS areas [3]

9月以来，创新药持续调整，当前估值已经回落到较为合理区间。 进入四季度，BD交易落地重回密集发布周期，且当前位于ESMO后（欧洲肿瘤内科学会年会）数据披露与MNC谈判接洽节点，创新药行情再度回归。 以科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）为例，近期频频反弹，今日也逆势反弹，科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）盘中涨超1.5%。 展望后市，经过了两个月左右调整的创新药板块，再度来到适宜的"击球区"。 2025年国家医保目录及商保药目录谈判收官，首次设立的商保创新药目录为高价值创新药开辟了全新的支付渠道，预计将通过已覆盖全国的"惠民 保"等商业保险产品落地，为创新药提供了一个年支付规模约200亿元的潜在增量资金池。 3、业绩持续改善，行情景气复苏 基本面角度看，A股医药行业在转型过程中已显现清晰的复苏轮廓。2025年前三季度，创新药板块营收达485.6亿元，同比增长21.41%，且第三季度收 入与利润双双转正，成为行业触底回升的关键信号。 另外，近年来国产原研药获批数量持续攀升，创新药凭借确切的临床价值迅速占领市场。目前，我国生物医药市场规模跃居全球第二，在研创新药约 占全球的30%。与此同时，越来越多国产创新药通 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 showing returns of -0.18%, -0.52%, and -1.08% respectively. In contrast, the STAR 50, ChiNext Index, and SME Board Index had poorer performances with returns of -3.85%, -3.01%, and -1.71% respectively [1] - In terms of industry performance, consumer services, textiles and apparel, and pharmaceuticals led with returns of 4.81%, 4.43%, and 3.29% respectively, while communication, electronics, and computers lagged with returns of -4.90%, -4.44%, and -3.72% respectively [1] Fund Flow - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 29.317 billion yuan last week, with stock ETFs contributing 17.352 billion yuan, QDII stock ETFs 5 billion yuan, commodity ETFs 5.957 billion yuan, money market fund ETFs 1.236 billion yuan, and bond ETFs experiencing a net outflow of 0.276 billion yuan [2] - Specific indices that saw significant net inflows include SGE Gold 9999 (5.573 billion yuan), STAR 50 (3.532 billion yuan), and ChiNext AI (2.300 billion yuan) [4] - Conversely, indices such as CSI A500 and CSI 300 experienced notable net outflows of 4.055 billion yuan and 2.640 billion yuan respectively [2][4] ETF Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was -1.09%, with the CSI 50 ETF showing the highest median return of 0.02% among broad-based ETFs. Consumer ETFs had a median return of 2.10%, the highest among sectors [11] - Top-performing ETFs included the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (10.92%), Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (10.80%), and Tourism ETF (9.30%) [12][14] - In contrast, ETFs such as 5G Communication ETF and Communication ETF saw declines of -7.03% and -6.89% respectively [16][18] New Fund Activity - A total of 56 funds were reported last week, an increase from the previous week, including one QDII and several thematic ETFs [20] - 25 new funds were established with a total issuance scale of 14.173 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to the previous week [20] - 41 funds entered the issuance phase last week, with 33 more expected to begin issuance this week [21] Hot News - Several cross-border ETFs have been flagged for premium risks due to significant discrepancies between market trading prices and net asset values [22] - The "Southbound ETF" program expanded on November 10, adding six ETFs to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, increasing the total number of products from 17 to 23 [23]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to close at 3972.03, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.11% at 13202.00, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.20% to 3105.20 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,303 billion, a decrease of 501 billion from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The military, energy metals, and Fujian sectors showed gains, while precious metals and photovoltaic sectors underwent adjustments [1] - The rare metals sector led the gains, with ETFs such as the Jiashi Fund Rare Metals ETF and the Guangfa Fund Rare Metals ETF both rising by 3.6% [3] - The software sector also performed well, with the Huazhang Fund Software ETF and the Southern Computer ETF increasing by 2.56% and 2.42%, respectively [3] - AI hardware stocks rebounded, with various AI ETFs rising by 2.2% [3] - Conversely, the innovative drug sector declined, with the Guotai and Huitianfu ETFs dropping by 2.7% and 2.58% [3] - Gold stocks experienced a broad pullback, with gold stock ETFs falling by 2.57% and 2.4% [3]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved a revenue of 1,825.74 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 139.66 billion yuan, down 1.59% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was 598.54 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, while net profit reached 40.51 billion yuan, up 7.67% year-on-year, with an overall gross margin of 31.4%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The performance within sub-sectors varied, with the medical device and medical services sectors showing strong revenue growth; the medical device sub-sector saw a Q3 revenue increase of 10.65% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in domestic bidding [1] Group 2 - The CXO sub-sector in medical services reported a Q3 revenue increase of 10.93% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 47.90%, supported by growth in external demand and signs of a turning point in domestic demand [1] - The chemical preparation sub-sector experienced a Q3 net profit increase of 5.05%, primarily benefiting from the commercialization of innovative drugs and upfront payments from BD transactions [1] - Investment focus in the pharmaceutical sector should shift towards clinical value, with optimism surrounding the innovative drug industry chain and high-end product upgrades in innovative medical devices, as the sector's valuation is in a recovery phase [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (589720) tracks the Innovation Drug Index (950161), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting stocks from the biopharmaceutical and chemical pharmaceutical sectors that exhibit innovation capabilities and high growth potential [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies related to new drug development driven by technological innovation [2]