2025 年 7 月 1 日 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 6月份 PMI 49.7, 制造业景气水平继续改善 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 宏观:畅想"十五五"的三大关键词——"十五五"系列报告之一。第一个关 ● 键词:承上启下,把握"十五五"时期的阶段性要求。第二个关键词:坚定不 移,更加强调大力发展新质生产力。第三个关键词:因势利导,进一步强化消 费的基础性作用。 宏观： 6 月 PMI: 积极和担忧都有哪些? 6 月份的 PMI 既有好消息也有令人 ● 担忧的方面,好消息是需求回到扩张区间带动生产继续上行,价格指数有所反 弹,采购指数站到荣枯线上,库存也有所增加。以上信息反映了我国经济有足 够的韧性,在对等关税暂缓和政策靠前发力的结合下,二季度经济比去年同期 表现更有韧性,二季度货币政策委员会例会对国内经济形势的判断为"呈现向 好态势,社会信心持续提振"。但另一方面, ...

| 董忠云 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱：liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 庞晨 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640124040009 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱: pangc@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640123090015 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 杨子萌 研究助理 | | | SAC 执业证书：S0640124060008 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱:yangzm@avicsec.com | | 相关研究报告 2025 年 06 月 28 日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 经济转型牛主升浪尝试 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinion on adjusting the price fluctuation limit for risk warning stocks on the main board to 10%, aligning it with other stocks [1] - The adjustment aims to enhance market consistency and potentially improve trading dynamics for risk warning stocks [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities indicates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a year for layout, suggesting that market adjustments present opportunities [2] - The macro environment is characterized by economic resilience, policy stability, and high asset volatility, with expectations of a fluctuating A-share market in the second half of the year [2] - The policy approach is divided into two phases: the first focuses on accelerating existing policy implementation, while the second will assess the need for further fiscal stimulus based on economic conditions [2] Group 3 - Guosheng Securities highlights the advantages of stablecoins in payment scenarios, particularly in cross-border payments, and notes the competitive landscape among different stablecoins [3] - The integration of stablecoins with AI agents and the tokenization of U.S. stocks are seen as significant trends that could enhance global financial market liquidity [3] Group 4 - Dongwu Securities reports that the solid-state battery industry is entering a critical mid-test phase, with rapid advancements in the supply chain supported by national policies [6] - The solid-state battery's core components, particularly sulfide electrolytes, are expected to achieve mass production by 2030, with significant progress in manufacturing processes [6] Group 5 - Investment recommendations include focusing on the battery segment with high barriers to entry, suggesting companies like CATL and BYD, as well as equipment and materials sectors [7] - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to see breakthroughs in both equipment and materials, with ongoing developments in production techniques [6][7] Group 6 - The AI healthcare sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology, commercialization, and policy support [8] - Ant Group's launch of the AI health application "AQ" aims to address healthcare needs and connect users with a vast network of medical professionals [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI healthcare companies such as Alibaba Health and WeDoctor [9]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of the United Front Work as a core responsibility of the Party Committee, highlighting the need to deeply understand Xi Jinping's thoughts on the United Front Work in the new era [1] - The meeting discussed the necessity to implement the responsibility system for United Front Work, focusing on key tasks such as industrial and technological innovation, reform breakthroughs, private economy development, and optimizing the business environment [1] - The meeting underscored the unique advantages of the United Front in terms of intellectual resources, talent, and broad connections, aiming to promote high-quality development of the United Front Work in the new era [1] Group 2 - The meeting reviewed the work report of the Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision for the first half of the year, stressing the ongoing severe and complex situation of the anti-corruption struggle [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for a combination of strict management and care, addressing issues of inaction and misconduct while also supporting responsible officials through mechanisms for error correction and clarification [2] - The meeting discussed the implementation of the Central Eight Regulations and emphasized the importance of integrating strict requirements into educational efforts, focusing on addressing prominent issues in work style [2] Group 3 - The meeting also reviewed the work related to the compilation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and discussed other matters [3]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 6 . 2 1 - 6 . 2 7 周度研究成果 目录 深度专题 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 1、深度专题 | 新"三万亿"投资会在哪？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第36期:《年中问"大势"》 2、 "洞见系列" 第70期:《 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？—关税"压力测试"系列之十二 》 第71期：《消费困局的"盲点"？》 1、热点思考 | 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？——关税"压力测试"系列之十二 2、热点思考 | "十五五"前瞻：迈向2035的关键"五年"——"十五五"系列专题一 3、热点思考 | 封锁"霍尔木兹"，不可信的承诺？ 1、国内高频 | 集运价格连续上涨 2、海外高频 | 美债拍卖强于预期，5月美国零售弱于预期 3、政策高频 | 2025陆家嘴论坛召开 4、Top Charts | 地方国补，缘何"暂停"？ 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 新"三万亿"投资会在哪？ 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.6.26 国际经验显示，人均GDP处1-3万美元时，需求加快向服务领域转型。但当前服务供给紧缺，投资缺口有多 大？"投资于人 ...

自5月20日起，"十五五"规划编制工作开展网络征求意见活动。今年"十五五"规划相关工作节点比以往 开始得还要早，充分显示出党中央对五年规划的重视。 当前制定"十五五"规划的内外部大环境相较于"十四五"期间发生了明显变化。 从国内环境看，相比于"十四五"规划，党的二十大报告根据形势的变化和认识的深化，在2035年远景目 标的阐述上作出一定调整，进一步明确了基本实现现代化的方向指引，这也将为"十五五"规划的编制锚 定目标方向。此外，当下国内经济面临的稳增长压力比五年前更复杂，一些中长期的困难和挑战已经浮 现，比如人口问题、外部的输入性风险等。 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》(以下简称《决定》)共提出300多项 重要改革举措，目前正在陆续出台实施，"十五五"规划也会将与之相关的改革举措纳入其中。特别是 《决定》对"完善市场经济基础制度"作出的部署安排非常重要，涵盖产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、 社会信用体系等四个基础性制度。这关乎我国市场经济的竞争力和社会信心，近期有关的法律规定已陆 续出台，"十五五"期间各地各有关部门要将这些基础性制度真正贯彻落实，才能为经济发展带来积极效 应。从下一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in the context of the new "three trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing investment gap in the service sector [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article analyzes the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It discusses the key areas of focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading to the 2035 vision, outlining the progress and potential priorities [10]. - The article addresses the implications of Iran's parliamentary decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, assessing the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been continuously rising, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite weak overall infrastructure construction [15]. - In the U.S., the recent bond auction performed better than expected, while retail sales in May fell short of forecasts, reflecting mixed economic signals [20]. - The article outlines various recent domestic policy initiatives aimed at enhancing financial market regulation and promoting digital currency operations, including the establishment of a personal credit agency and offshore trade financial services [22].

Group 1 - The meeting focused on accelerating the reduction of logistics costs and increasing efficiency in Hainan Free Trade Port, emphasizing the importance of logistics system efficiency and cost for the competitiveness and attractiveness of the free trade port [1] - The meeting included discussions on key issues such as institutional mechanisms, infrastructure, transportation models, and smart logistics, with the aim of providing recommendations for the high-quality development of Hainan's logistics industry [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for the Provincial Political Consultative Conference to actively engage in research and provide suggestions to support the economic growth expectations and transportation infrastructure development [2] Group 2 - The meeting also reviewed personnel matters and included participation from various provincial leaders and members of the Provincial Political Consultative Conference [3]

一个又一个五年的砥砺前行，是建设社会主义现代化国家的一段段征程。根据党的二十大作出的战 略安排，我国将通过"十四五""十五五""十六五"3个五年的努力，到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化。 其中，"十五五"正是承上启下的关键五年。党的二十届三中全会部署的300多项改革任务，都需要在这 五年中加快推进，到2029年完成。中国式现代化出题目，进一步全面深化改革做文章。"十五五"注定是 一个改革含量更高的五年。科学谋划好这关键一程，用好规划指导经济社会发展，将以明确的目标、有 力的指引，凝聚起团结奋斗的磅礴力量。 统筹"两个大局"，坚定不移办好自己的事。当今世界，百年未有之大变局加速演进。把制度优势更 好转化为治理效能，是我们应对变乱交织国际环境的不二选择。习近平总书记强调，"要前瞻性把握国 际形势发展变化对我国的影响，因势利导对经济布局进行调整优化"。把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在 更加突出的战略位置、加快构建新发展格局、坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放等，都是"十五五"时期的重 要课题。 科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政一条重要经验。近日，就"十五五"规划编制工作 开展的网络征求意见活动正式结束，有关意见建 ...

持续推进人工智能相关法律制度建设是保障"高质量发展"与"高水平安全"良性互动的必然要求。 今年5月20日，我国第一部民营经济领域的基础性、综合性法律——《民营经济促进法》正式施行。在 经济下行压力加大，稳经济、促增长迫切需要激发内生动力的关键节点，业内人士认为这部法律的出台 正当其时，将加强民营经济发展的法治保障。 完善立法，为高质量发展提供法律保障 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，在《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035 年远景目标纲要》中，列有"全面推进依法治国"专章，涉及立法、法治政府建设、加强涉外法治体系建 设等多项内容，同时提出要健全支持民营企业发展的法治环境。 立法是法治的前提和基础。"十四五"规划针对完善立法机制体制，专门提到"加强重点领域、新兴领 域、涉外领域立法"。 其中，在经济这一重点领域，《民营经济促进法》的正式出台与实行，填补了我国在经济法领域关于民 营经济保护的空白。第一财经采访的多位法律专家指出，这部法律的亮点之一就是强调了"平等对 待"和"公平竞争"的原则。 "这意味着，对不同市场主体，无论是国有企业还是民营企业，在法律上都要同等对待，不能厚此薄 彼， ...