Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]

"十五五"规划系列报告（九） 提升消费率: 亚洲经济体的得与失 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 当前我国经济发展正迎来迈向中等发达水平的关键一跃，提升居民消费的重 要性日益凸显，"居民消费率明显提高"战略目标的提出恰逢其时。然而纵观全球 发展经验，欧美模式具有不同的储蓄文化、家庭观念和社会保障体系，相较之下， 与我们文化同源、发展路径相似的亚洲经济体，更值得深入探究。故此，与其远 眺欧美寻找"灵丹妙药"，不如近观亚洲主要经济体的实践经验。 ➢ 聚焦于亚洲各经济体的发展轨迹，揭示了一个深刻现象：经济发展水平未必 与消费发展速度相适配。正是基于这一"同源异流"的发现，我们可将亚洲经济 体按照人均 GDP 与消费率水平归纳为四种典型范式： ➢ 乐消费型（对应人均 GDP 偏高、消费率偏高的地区，如中国香港、日本）： 消费市场高度发达，消费结构优化，居民消费与经济发展水平相匹配。不过同是 "乐消费型"经济体，中国香港与日本的"解题思路"大相径庭—— [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taoch ...