Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment changes rapidly. Near the Spring Festival, funds have a need for risk aversion. This week, there was a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu port for pure benzene, and the demand side showed a stable performance. The export of downstream styrene was good, and the inventory of Shandong refineries was at a low level, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level. Pure benzene was in a high - level wide - range shock, and the reference range for the 03 contract was 6060 - 6350 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy was to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the BZ2603 main - contract futures fell by 47 yuan to 6135 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 6150 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan), and the spot price in Shandong was 6165 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan). In terms of positions, the long positions decreased by 1608 lots to 20,600 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1717 lots to 21,800 lots [2] 2. Important Information - **Supply**: In January, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.915 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In December, the pure benzene import volume was 537,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.8% [2] - **Inventory**: As of February 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 296,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 305,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.95%; compared with the inventory of 155,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 141,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90.97%. From January 26 to February 1, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival volume was 0 tons and the pick - up volume was about 9,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 3 storage areas decreased and 4 remained stable [2] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%; the phenol operating rate was 88%, unchanged from the previous month; the caprolactam operating rate was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the aniline operating rate was 88.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the adipic acid operating rate was 68.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The statistical price of pure benzene in Shandong yesterday was around 2100, with the low end at 6150 and the high end at 6180 [2] - **International Oil Price**: The US and Iran officially confirmed that they would hold talks, the market's concern about geopolitical risks eased, and the US dollar exchange rate strengthened, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract fell 1.85 dollars/barrel to 63.29 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 1.91 dollars/barrel to 67.55 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%. The China INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 5.2 to 467.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 3.5 to 463.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3. Market Logic - The market sentiment changes rapidly. Near the Spring Festival, funds have a need for risk aversion. This week, there was a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu port for pure benzene, and the demand side showed a stable performance. The export of downstream styrene was good, and the inventory of Shandong refineries was at a low level, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level. Pure benzene was in a high - level wide - range shock, and the reference range for the 03 contract was 6060 - 6350 yuan/ton [2] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy was to wait and see [2]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant increase on February 4, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rising notably [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close on February 4, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.93, settling at $65.14 per barrel, representing a 3.05% increase [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for April delivery increased by $2.13, closing at $69.46 per barrel, which is a 3.16% rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant increase on February 4, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rising notably [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the market close on February 4, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.93, closing at $65.14 per barrel, representing a 3.05% increase [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for April delivery increased by $2.13, closing at $69.46 per barrel, with a rise of 3.16% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing fluctuations influenced by multiple macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, with its performance closely tied to international oil prices, the US-Canada interest rate differential, trade relations, and economic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Prices and CAD Correlation - The CAD is highly correlated with international oil prices, which have recently reached near four-month highs due to improved supply-demand dynamics and expectations of global economic recovery, benefiting Canada's trade surplus and capital inflows [1]. - A previous drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel, combined with a weak Canadian economy, led to the CAD depreciating against the USD, hitting a sixteen-month low [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Divergence in monetary policy between the US and Canada is affecting CAD movements, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and the market pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, which has led to a weaker USD and supported the CAD [1]. - The Bank of Canada also kept rates unchanged, causing the CAD to be more sensitive to oil price fluctuations rather than USD volatility [1]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Trade tensions between the US and Canada, particularly the proposed 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft imports, have raised market concerns and led to a short-term rebound of the USD against the CAD [2]. - Ongoing negotiations in the steel and aluminum sectors, as well as the review of the mainland free trade agreement, will further influence CAD movements [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Short-term Outlook - The USD/CAD exchange rate is in a downward channel, having broken below the 1.36 mark, with technical indicators showing mixed signals for short-term direction [2]. - The CAD is expected to be influenced by oil prices, US-Canada trade developments, and US economic data, with the USD/CAD likely to fluctuate between 1.3450 and 1.3700 [2]. Group 5: Medium to Long-term Considerations - The medium to long-term trajectory of the CAD will depend on the stability of oil prices, changes in the US-Canada interest rate differential, and the strength of the Canadian economic recovery [2]. - While Canadian manufacturing shows signs of recovery, volatility in consumer spending may limit CAD appreciation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The New York crude oil futures prices experienced a significant decline on February 1 due to geopolitical factors, with prices dropping over 3% compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On February 1, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery fell to $62.30 per barrel [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for April delivery dropped to $66.30 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that the decline in oil prices is attributed to a decrease in market expectations regarding potential U.S. military action against Iran, leading investors to sell long positions [1]

国际油价2日大幅下跌。纽约商品交易所轻质原油期货价格一度失守每桶63美元，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格一度跌破每桶67美元，跌幅均超过 3%。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant drop in international oil prices on February 2, with WTI crude oil falling by 3.39% to $63 per barrel and Brent crude oil declining by over 5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international oil prices are expected to remain around $60 per barrel this year, as market oversupply expectations offset potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions [1][2] - A survey conducted in January involving 31 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $62.02 per barrel by 2026, a slight increase from the previous forecast of $61.27 per barrel in December [2] - As of January 30, Brent crude oil was trading at approximately $70 per barrel, with an expected average price of $68.20 per barrel for 2025 [3] Group 2 - The average price of U.S. crude oil is projected to be $58.72 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $58.15 per barrel in December [3] - For 2025, the average price of U.S. crude oil is estimated to be $64.73 per barrel [3]

摘要 美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动，大规模军事集结表明美国可能在未来采 取行动，历史经验表明，部队进入攻击阵位后，战争爆发的可能性极高。 美国对伊朗发动攻击需满足航母编队就位及完成军事准备等条件。历史 上，美国在地区冲突中常部署至少两个航母编队，以保证安全和有效打 击。 美国过去几年的军事打击行动主要表现为短期、突击性，目标集中于高 附加值的战略和战术目标，通过高效、精准打击来实现战略目标。 特朗普政府对伊朗采取高附加值目标的精确打击和施加巨大的政治压力 等策略，旨在削弱伊朗内部强硬派力量，促使其在与美国交涉时做出让 步。 伊朗面临来自美国及其盟友的外部压力，包括经济制裁和军事威胁，以 及国内经济困境、社会不满和政治动荡等内部挑战。 美国可能采取加强海上封锁、打击炼油设施、攻击领导人等措施打击伊 朗，伊朗可能采取导弹攻击、反击美国基地、袭击以色列等方式反应， 规模取决于美国打击力度。 国际能源市场供给结构相对稳定，伊朗原油供应占比不高，对全球原油 市场影响有限。地缘政治局势将导致短期内国际油价因恐慌情绪而持续 走高，理性回归后将逐步回落。 Q&A 美国剑拔弩张，中东局势是否会全面失控？对油价有何影 响？2026 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，国际油价29日显著上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上 涨2.21美元，收于每桶65.42美元，涨幅为3.5%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.31美元，收 于每桶70.71美元，涨幅为3.38%。 ...