央行独立性

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演员已就位,美联储大戏马上开战
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-16 05:08
Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, with the potential for a divided voting outcome among committee members [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Lisa Cook has been allowed to remain on the Federal Reserve Board, which adds significant uncertainty to the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Stephen Miran's nomination was swiftly approved by the Senate, and he is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3][11]. - The contrasting situations of Cook and Miran highlight the political tensions affecting the Federal Reserve's independence [10][12]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but the inclusion of Cook and Miran could lead to a rare "four-way split" in voting [4][13]. - Possible voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and the potential for Cook to unexpectedly support a rate hike [14][15]. - If an unprecedented outcome occurs, it could lead to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC and unpredictable market reactions [15].
演员已就位,美联储大戏马上开战
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-16 04:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which add uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political dynamics affecting the central bank's independence [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Their Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision preventing Trump from removing Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3]. - The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [3][9]. - Cook's position is uncertain due to ongoing legal issues, which have become a focal point in the tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but the addition of two contrasting voting members complicates the prediction [4][12]. - Analysts suggest a rare "four-way split" voting scenario could emerge, leading to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC [5][13]. - The potential voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and Cook possibly voting for a 25 basis point increase [13].
Miran、Cook都获准参会投票,周四美联储决议大戏开演,首现“四方混战”?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-16 02:28
Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, including the court ruling allowing Lisa Cook to remain and the Senate's approval of Stephen Miran, have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision, allowing Lisa Cook to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite facing pressure from former President Trump [1]. - Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board was narrowly approved by the Senate, with expectations that he will strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Interest Rate Decisions - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, but the addition of Cook and Miran introduces unpredictability, with some analysts suggesting a rare "four-way split" in voting could occur [4][5]. - The potential for a "circus-like" outcome in the FOMC's decision-making process could lead to chaotic signals regarding monetary policy, complicating market reactions [5]. Group 3: Voting Dynamics - The voting landscape may include a strong dovish faction represented by Miran, Waller, and Bowman, who could support a 50 basis point cut, while a moderate faction led by Chair Powell may favor a 25 basis point cut [7]. - Cook's unexpected vote could potentially lean towards a rate hike, reflecting her desire to assert independence amid political pressures [7].
特朗普政府敦促美法院批准解雇美联储理事库克
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-14 23:38
特朗普政府敦促美法院批准解雇美联储理事库克 中新网9月15日电 据美媒报道,当地时间14日,特朗普政府向美国上诉法院提出请求,要求允许其解雇 美联储理事库克,并希望在美联储利率决议前完成此举。 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 据报道,这份提交给法院的诉状称,美国总统特朗普有权以正当理由解除库克的职务,而美联储理事关 于其正当程序受到侵犯的说法"毫无根据"。 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 库克的律师在此前提交的一份文件则辩称,将库克从美联储解雇将"标志着"央行独立于行政部门的先 例"立即结束",同时"将向金融市场发出一个不稳定的信号"。 本月9日,美国地方法院曾裁定暂缓特朗普对库克的解职决定,直至其起诉案审理完毕。特朗普团队随 后要求华盛顿上诉法院暂停该禁令。 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:万可义 ...
BBMarkets:美联储宫斗进入加时赛,一次提名与全球市场的心跳
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 08:05
Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]
第一金PPLI早评:(9.11)黄金高位震荡 通胀数据成关键指引
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 03:59
回顾上周市场动态,美国非农就业数据表现不及预期,凸显劳动力市场或已进入降温通道。与此同时, 美国劳工部下调了截至今年 3 月的就业增长预估,这一调整意味着在特朗普政府启动加征关税政策之 前,美国就业市场的扩张步伐就已有所放缓。上述信号进一步强化了市场对美联储政策宽松的预期。 在美联储政策博弈层面,近期市场关注点聚焦于央行独立性问题。美联储理事库克此前面临被特朗普罢 免的风险,但相关举措已被法院阻止,美国司法部随即提起上诉,这表明白宫在干预美联储决策的法律 较量中暂遇挫折。此外,米兰出任美联储理事的提名已获得参议院相关委员会通过,种种迹象显示,白 宫与美联储围绕央行独立性的博弈仍在持续,这一过程或对货币政策走向产生潜在影响。 通胀数据方面,美国 8 月生产者物价指数(PPI)环比下降 0.1%,为近四个月来首次出现负增长,同比 增幅 2.6% 也低于市场预期。数据公布后,特朗普再次公开呼吁美联储实施大幅降息。从芝商所 FedWatch 工具的监测数据来看,当前市场认为美联储在 9 月 16-17 日的货币政策会议上降息 25 个基点 的概率已高达 90%,部分投资者甚至预期可能出现更大幅度的降息。 当前市场目光 ...
市场就是“不信”高通胀?摩根大通:5年了,还继续被骗
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-10 07:19
Core Insights - Morgan Stanley warns that central banks and investors in developed markets have significantly underestimated the persistence of inflation, as evidenced by five consecutive years of inaccurate inflation forecasts [1][3][4] Inflation Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that the core inflation rate in developed markets will reach 3% by 2025, exceeding the central bank's target of 2% for the fifth consecutive year [1][4] - Central banks have consistently overestimated the decline in inflation, with the Federal Reserve adjusting its one-year forward core inflation forecast upward by 10 percentage points since 2021 [1][3] Historical Performance of Central Banks - On average, central banks in developed markets have underestimated core inflation by approximately 1 percentage point over the past five years, with actual inflation levels exceeding targets by 1.5 percentage points [4][8] - The Bank of England has the worst performance, with an average forecast error of 1.8 percentage points and an average inflation overshoot of 3 percentage points [8] Market Reactions - Despite the persistent inflation overshoot, financial markets continue to rate central banks highly in their ability to control inflation, as indicated by the five-year forward inflation swap rates returning to pre-crisis levels [10][13] - Long-term market expectations in the U.S. and Eurozone have remained stable, while the U.K. has seen a decline of about 40 basis points [13] Risks of Persistent Inflation - Morgan Stanley highlights the "five-year curse," suggesting that sustained inflation deviations may begin to affect long-term expectations after five years, with recent consumer surveys indicating rising inflation expectations [14][19] - The probability of sticky inflation is estimated at 45%, while the likelihood of economic recession is pegged at 40% [3][22] Policy Independence Challenges - The independence of monetary policy is under threat, particularly due to political pressures, which complicates the task of re-anchoring inflation expectations [19][22] - The report emphasizes the need for preparedness for a prolonged period of high interest rates, contrary to market expectations of a rapid easing cycle [22]
近600名经济学家联名声援!被特朗普“裁员”的美联储理事已提起诉讼
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under severe threat as President Trump attempts to exert political pressure, including efforts to dismiss board member Lisa Cook, which has prompted a significant response from the economic community [1][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report indicates that all 12 Federal Reserve districts experienced price increases related to tariffs from mid-July to the end of August [5]. - Many regions reported that tariffs have significantly impacted input prices for businesses, with some companies passing all cost increases onto consumers [5]. - Due to rising economic uncertainty and increased tariff rates, many households' wage growth has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending across all Federal Reserve districts [5]. Group 2: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Nearly 600 economists, including Nobel laureates, signed an open letter warning that actions against Cook could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the importance of protecting its independence from political influence [6][7]. - President Trump has unilaterally claimed that Cook has been dismissed, but Cook and her legal team argue that he lacks the legal authority to remove her, leading to a lawsuit that may reach the Supreme Court [7][8]. Group 3: New Appointments and Controversies - Amid the turmoil surrounding Cook's position, reports indicate that the Trump administration is seeking to appoint new candidates to the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the potential erosion of the central bank's independence [10]. - Stephen Moore, a candidate nominated by Trump, is set to face a Senate Banking Committee hearing, where he aims to reassure that he values the independence of the central bank [12]. - Polls show that 59% of Americans believe the Federal Reserve should remain independent from presidential influence, highlighting public concern over the administration's attempts to reshape the central bank [13].
BBMarkets蓝莓外汇:央行独立性争议下,美元为何陷入双向波动?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 07:11
Core Viewpoint - The recent debate over "central bank independence" has significant implications for market risk sentiment, capital flows, and asset pricing, particularly affecting forex traders [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence allows monetary policy to focus on long-term goals like price stability and financial stability without short-term political interference [1]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, especially with external pressures for rate cuts, leading to uncertainty in the dollar's performance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market is experiencing a dual pull where potential easing could weaken the dollar in the short term, but fears of long-term inflation and financial stability could increase demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) emphasizing the necessity of central bank independence serve as a signal to the market, highlighting the importance of the Fed's future actions [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Forex traders focus on the dot plot and swap market trends rather than just central bank officials' statements, as expectations of forced rate cuts could lead to lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]. - The core logic in the forex market is influenced by emotional factors, with investors weighing concerns over "policy being hijacked" against confidence in "institutional resilience" [4]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Increased volatility is expected as discussions around central bank independence may lead to more frequent false breakouts and choppy market conditions, making position management more critical than directional bets [5]. - In times of dollar uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from their central banks' credibility, such as the euro and yen, which could provide stability and support during risk-off sentiment [5].
美联储理事提名人米兰承诺维护央行独立性
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 23:13
Core Viewpoint - The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing for Stephen Milan, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizing the importance of preventing economic recession and hyperinflation as the central bank's primary tasks [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Independence - Milan asserts that the independence of monetary policy is crucial for its success [1] - He plans to fulfill his duties based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term beneficial judgments if confirmed [1] - Milan intends to maintain the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is tasked with significant responsibilities [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - Milan raises questions regarding the Federal Reserve's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly concerning its balance sheet [1] - He highlights the Fed's role in regulating major financial institutions and setting different capital prices for borrowers and lenders, including other central banks [1] - The final composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains an unresolved issue [1]