Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the events occurring in the United States pose a challenge to the independence of central banks [1] - Currently, the Federal Reserve is maintaining its independence [1] - There is curiosity about what will happen after Powell's term ends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman, Philip Lowe, emphasized that the Federal Reserve maintains its independence during challenging times [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's ability to remain independent is crucial for effective monetary policy [1] - Lowe's comments reflect a broader concern about central bank independence amid economic pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains a guiding principle for monetary policy, as emphasized by RBA Governor Philip Lowe [1] Group 1 - The RBA's independence is crucial for maintaining credibility and effective monetary policy [1] - Lowe highlighted that the central bank's decisions should be free from political influence to ensure economic stability [1] - The RBA continues to focus on its primary objective of achieving inflation targets and supporting employment [1]

很有意思，央行的独立性这个相对比较学术的话题，现在成为国际金融圈讨论的焦点，7月18日，G20 财长和央行行长在南非举行会议，本次会议罕见意见一致地表示，"各国央行坚定致力于确保价格稳 定，履行各自的使命，并将继续根据数据调整政策。央行的独立性对于实现这一目标至关重要。" 在笔者看来，这是特朗普"欺负老实人"太过分了，别人实在看不过眼了。财政部部长和央行行长站在了 鲍威尔一边，明确支持各国央行根据各自职责强力确保价格稳定，并将继续以数据为导向调整政策。 其实不仅仅是央行行长们支持鲍威尔，市场的交易者也用真金白银进行了投票：7月16日，一则关于特 朗普解雇鲍威尔的传闻，在短短一小时内就引发了市场主要资产的剧烈波动，为投资者提供了一次罕见 的"压力测试"，清晰预演了当美联储独立性受到政治干预时可能引发的金融冲击。 冉学东 金融市场动荡超出预想，不到一小时后，特朗普否认了这一可能性，称还不打算解雇鲍威尔，但仍暗 示"正当理由"可行。市场又随即扭转此前趋势，复归于平静。 今年特朗普上台以来多次因美联储保持按兵不动而攻击鲍威尔，公开称他为"蠢货"，声称美国没有高通 胀，要求大幅降息，本周甚至暗示可能因联储总部装修项目处 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the G20 meeting was the independence of central banks, which was strongly emphasized in the joint communiqué, highlighting its importance for maintaining price stability [1][2][3] - The communiqué acknowledged the global economic uncertainties stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, stressing the need for enhanced multilateral cooperation [1][4] - The G20 members collectively supported the idea of addressing the debt vulnerabilities of middle and low-income countries in a predictable and coordinated manner [5] Group 2 - The communiqué did not directly mention "tariffs," but the impact of trade tensions was evident throughout the document, reflecting the significant changes in global trade rules due to U.S. tariff policies [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global growth forecast for 2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8% due to these trade tensions, indicating a cautious outlook on economic stability [4] - The G20 reaffirmed the importance of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in advancing trade issues while acknowledging the need for meaningful reforms [4][5]

要想理解特朗普为何只会"骂而不解雇"，必须先看清他所面对的几重困境。 特朗普对鲍威尔的反感由来已久，几乎成为公开的秘密。他不止一次骂鲍威尔是"笨蛋""白痴"，甚至在会议中嘲讽说"跟他讲话简直像跟一把椅子对话"。 尤其最近美联储总部斥资25亿美元进行大规模翻修的项目，被特朗普抓住不放，他直言这"或许足以成为开除鲍威尔的理由"。如果换作他公司里的高管， 恐怕早已被迫离职。 特朗普嘴上严厉指责美联储主席鲍威尔"做得很糟糕""没尽责"，却始终没有真正动手罢免他。这种看似矛盾的行为，表面上是特朗普对鲍威尔个人的不 满，实则背后牵扯着复杂的权力博弈、政治算计和经济现实之间的微妙平衡。 但美联储主席并非普通员工。美国法律对美联储的独立性设有严格保护机制，主席任期为四年，总统无权随意开除，除非有"合法且充分的理由"，比如违 法或渎职。 虽然美联储翻新大楼的开销巨大，但美联储方面给出的解释合情合理：清除石棉、处理污染土壤、提升安全标准，这些额外成本并非挥霍浪费。更重要的 是，美联储用的是自有资金，而非政府财政拨款。特朗普若想强行给翻修费扣上"正当理由"的帽子，法律上根本站不住脚。 就连共和党内部也有人提醒特朗普别轻易出手。众议 ...

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining central bank independence and strengthening multilateral cooperation [1][2] - The joint communiqué highlighted the challenges facing the global economy, including geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, high debt levels, and extreme weather [1] - The meeting agreed on implementing growth-oriented macroeconomic policies, enhancing fiscal resilience, and encouraging investment and productivity reforms to consolidate long-term growth potential [1] Group 2 - Progress was made on debt restructuring, multilateral development bank (MDB) financing expansion, cross-border payment efficiency, global minimum corporate tax, infrastructure financing, and sustainable finance [2] - Member countries confirmed the voluntary allocation of over $100 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) or equivalent resources to assist countries in need [2] - The communiqué reiterated cooperation in areas such as climate, health, and the digital economy, promoting research and practice between public and private sectors in carbon market data models and cross-border infrastructure [2]

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors reached a rare consensus emphasizing the importance of central bank independence for maintaining price stability, collectively supporting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell amid ongoing trade tensions and political pressures from President Trump [1][3] - The G20 communiqué acknowledged the global economy faces uncertainties due to "ongoing war conflicts, geopolitical and trade tensions," highlighting the importance of strengthening multilateral cooperation [1][4] - The communiqué did not directly mention "tariffs," but the impact of trade tensions was a recurring theme, with the U.S. imposing significant tariffs on various imports, reshaping global trade rules [4] Group 2 - The independence of central banks was a focal point of the G20 meeting, with South African central bank governor Kganyago stating that this issue was strongly reflected in the discussions [2] - The communiqué reiterated the importance of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in advancing trade issues while acknowledging that the WTO faces challenges requiring meaningful and comprehensive reforms [5] - Despite differences, the G20 reached consensus on several issues, including addressing the debt vulnerabilities of low- and middle-income countries and the impact of extreme weather events on economic growth and financial stability [6]

日本财务省官员：二十国集团（G20）对央行独立性的支持态度是有意义的。 ...

美联储独立性面临的挑战可能产生全球影响。 欧洲央行管委Nagel：不应该拿央行的独立性开玩笑。 ...