Core Viewpoint - The probability of an increase in refined oil prices in the next adjustment cycle is high, following a recent downward adjustment in domestic fuel prices [1][2] Group 1: Recent Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 265 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from 24:00 on October 27 [1] - This marks the first price adjustment after a series of unchanged rates, with the overall trend showing six increases, nine decreases, and six unchanged periods in 21 adjustments this year [1] - The average price of 92-octane gasoline will decrease to between 6.8 and 6.9 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will drop to between 6.6 and 6.7 yuan per liter, entering the "6 yuan era" [1] Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Businesses - The price reduction will lower travel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated saving of about 10.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank [1] - For vehicles consuming 7-8 liters per 100 kilometers, the average cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by approximately 1.5 yuan [1] - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will be reduced by about 8.8 yuan [1] Group 3: International Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle, international oil prices initially fell due to warnings of oversupply and ongoing trade tensions, but later rebounded following geopolitical developments and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [2] - The overall average price of international oil remains lower than in the previous cycle despite the rebound [2] - The next price adjustment window will open on November 10, with expectations of a potential increase in refined oil prices due to positive developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and ongoing geopolitical instability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China are set to decrease due to a shift in international oil prices from rising to falling, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan respectively [2][3]. Price Adjustments - The recent price adjustment will lower the cost for consumers, with a decrease of approximately 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0.06 yuan for 0 diesel [2]. - For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost about 3 yuan less, while for large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by 2.4 yuan [2]. Market Trends - In 2023, there have been 20 rounds of domestic refined oil price adjustments, resulting in a pattern of six increases, eight decreases, and six stasis periods, leading to an overall decline of 480 yuan per ton for gasoline and 460 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - The current gasoline and diesel prices are approximately 0.1 yuan lower per liter compared to the same period in 2024, with no price increases in over three months since the last adjustment on July 1 [3]. International Oil Price Dynamics - The international oil market has shown a weak trend due to concerns over macroeconomic conditions and fossil fuel demand, with recent fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events and trade tensions [3]. - The price of WTI crude oil fell below 60 USD, with a decline exceeding 5% on October 10, driven by reduced risk premiums and concerns over international trade [3]. Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window will open on October 27, with expectations of further price reductions due to OPEC+ starting a new round of production increases and ongoing concerns about supply surplus amid a weak global economic outlook [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China has implemented its eighth fuel price reduction of the year, effective from October 13, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 RMB and 70 RMB per ton respectively [1] - The average price reduction translates to a decrease of 0.06 RMB per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel, with retail prices for 92-octane gasoline ranging from 7.00 to 7.10 RMB per liter in most regions [1] - Consumers will experience a slight decrease in fuel costs, with a typical private car owner saving approximately 3 RMB for a full tank of 50 liters of 92-octane gasoline [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability of further price reductions in the next fuel price adjustment cycle due to OPEC+'s new production increase and easing geopolitical tensions, alongside a bleak global economic outlook [2] - The international oil price is expected to remain volatile, with potential downward pressure on prices due to renewed trade tariff issues in the U.S., leading to a negative opening for the next price adjustment cycle [2]

Core Points - The recent adjustment in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China reflects a decrease of 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, effective from October 13, 2025 [1] - This marks the 20th price adjustment in 2025, with a total of eight reductions, leading to a pricing pattern of "six increases, eight decreases, and six stabilities" for the year [1] - The next price adjustment window is set to open on October 27, 2025 [1] Industry Analysis - Analysts predict a high likelihood of further price reductions in the next round due to OPEC+ initiating a new production increase in October and ongoing concerns about oversupply in the market [1] - The geopolitical situation remains unstable but shows no significant escalation, contributing to the cautious outlook on oil supply and demand [1] - Global economic conditions and demand forecasts are also viewed as unfavorable, reinforcing the expectation of potential price declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have been reduced for the eighth time this year, with a significant probability of further declines in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of October 13, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction of 75 yuan/ton for gasoline and 70 yuan/ton for diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1]. - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, this price adjustment will save approximately 3 yuan when filling up, while large logistics vehicles will see a reduction of about 2.4 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The current pricing cycle has seen a downward trend in international crude oil prices, influenced by OPEC's anticipated production increase and a rise in U.S. crude oil production forecasts [3]. - The market sentiment is turning cautious due to concerns over economic and energy demand prospects, exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a high likelihood of further price reductions in the next round of refined oil pricing, driven by ongoing OPEC+ production increases and a generally weak global economic outlook [4]. - The next pricing window is expected to open on October 27, 2025, with initial estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 260 yuan/ton based on current crude oil prices [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation within a range during the current pricing cycle, leading to a change in the domestic reference crude oil price rate from negative to positive, albeit at a low level [1] - The adjustment magnitude calculated after the ninth working day is 25 yuan per ton, which has not reached the National Development and Reform Commission's price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1] - It is anticipated that the probability of domestic refined oil price adjustment being suspended is high, with one working day remaining until the adjustment window opens [1]

Group 1 - The international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation within a range during the pricing cycle from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025 [1] - As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive but remains at a low level, with an adjustment magnitude of 25 yuan/ton calculated on the 9th working day [1] - The adjustment amount has not reached the National Development and Reform Commission's price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for no price change [1] Group 2 - There is one working day left until the price adjustment window, and according to Zhaochuang Information, the probability of domestic refined oil price adjustment being shelved is relatively high as of September 23, 2025, at 24:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 26, with expectations for a decrease, marking the seventh adjustment of the year, ending two consecutive rounds of stasis [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - Analysts from Zhuochuang Information and Jinlianchuang indicate that the international crude oil market lacks strong positive signals, leading to a sustained negative change rate for crude oil prices, which is expected to result in a decrease in retail prices for refined oil [1][3]. - As of August 22, the reference crude oil change rate was -4.41%, with anticipated reductions of 190 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to price drops of 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan per liter respectively [1][2]. - If the current round of price adjustments is implemented, the total price changes for gasoline and diesel since the beginning of the year would be a decrease of 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton respectively [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Adjustment Summary - In 2025, there have been a total of sixteen price adjustment windows, resulting in six increases, six decreases, and four stasis periods [2]. - The next round of retail price adjustments is scheduled for September 9 at 24:00, following the "ten working days" principle [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that OPEC+ will maintain a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, while geopolitical uncertainties and sanctions on certain oil-producing countries may pose potential supply risks [3]. - Despite seasonal demand boosts from summer travel in the U.S., overall demand outlook remains pessimistic due to weak global economic data, leading to expectations that the next round of refined oil price adjustments may remain unchanged [3].

按照成品油调价时间表，8月26日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。 机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调幅度远超50元/吨的红 线要求，预计本轮成品油零售限价大概率将下调。 | | 2025年以来发改委成品油调价幅度汇总(单位:元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 日期 | 汽油 | 柴油 | | 上调 | 1月2日24时 | 70 | 70 | | | 1月16日24时 | 340 | 325 | | | 4月2日24时 | 230 | 220 | | | 6月3日24时 | 65 | 60 | | | 6月17日24时 | 260 | 255 | | | 7月1日24时 | 235 | 225 | | 下调 | 2月19日24时 | -170 | -160 | | | 3月5日24时 | -135 | -130 | | | 3月19日24时 | -280 | -270 | | | 4月17日24时 | -480 | -465 | | | 5月19日24时 | -230 | -220 | | | 7月15日 ...

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第四次搁浅。 8月12日，国家发改委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴 油价格（标准品）不作调整。相关价格联动及补贴政策按现行规定执行。价格执行时间自今日24时起。 据卓创资讯监测模型显示，截至8月11日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.06%，预计汽柴油上调5元/吨。因本 周期内原油变化率对应的汽柴油零售限价调整幅度不足50元/吨，因此8月12日24时国内汽柴油零售限价调整面临搁浅。 本轮是2025年第十六次调价，也是今年的第四次搁浅。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"六涨六跌四搁浅"的格 局。 此外，叠加美国与欧洲某国和谈，导致油价再度下跌，基本回吐本计价周期因欧洲某国可能受制裁影响的涨幅。因此国 内参考的原油变化率在正值范围内持续回落，对应的成品油零售限价上调幅度持续缩减。 截至北京时间8月12日凌晨，WTI即月原油期货收涨0.36%，报63.87美元/桶；布伦特即月原油期货收涨0.12%，报66.4美 元/桶。 图片来源：隆众资讯 下一轮成品油价存在下调概率。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦对智通财经 ...