时间一晃，2026年真的要来了。 站在这个新的十字路口，很多人心里都在打鼓：房子，到底是该赶紧买，还是再等等看？有意思的是，两位商界大佬——马云和李嘉诚，他们多年前的看 法，在今天这个节点上，竟然出奇地一致，给我们指出了一个清晰的方向。 01、大佬预言：房子正在回归"住"的本质 还记得马云在2017年说过的话吗？他预言"未来八年，中国最便宜的东西可能就是房子"。如今站在2026年回看，这句话正和"房住不炒"的大基调一起，深刻 地改变着楼市的逻辑。 过去那种全国房价"齐涨共跌"的时代，真的一去不复返了。现在的市场，更像是一场"分化赛"。 这种分化，首先体现在城市之间。 ■一线和强二线城市 比如上海、杭州、成都，靠着扎实的产业和持续涌入的年轻人，楼市底盘依然稳固。有数据显示，像上海的核心区域，房子去化周期已经降到了比较健康的 水平。这些地方的好房子，依然是很多人心中"硬通货"的代表。 ■而很多三四线城市，故事就不一样了。 随着人口流出，房子明显供大于求。有些地方甚至出现了"白菜价"的房子，挂牌很久也难成交。这恰恰说明，房子的金融属性在褪色，居住属性越来越成为 定价的核心。 03、新信号与新机遇：政策暖风，吹向哪里 ...

Group 1 - The changing population structure is significantly impacting social development, with declining birth rates and India's population surpassing China's raising concerns about fertility issues [1][3] - High housing prices and the cost of raising children are major factors limiting young people's willingness to have children, with the cost of raising a child in major cities reaching two to three million [1][3] - The concept of "fewer and better births" has become prevalent, leading to a decrease in newborns, with China's birth rate dropping to 1.15% in 2021, below the international warning line of 1.5% [3] Group 2 - High housing prices are a barrier to marriage, with the average housing price in China exceeding 10,000 yuan per square meter in 2021, making home ownership nearly impossible for young graduates with limited income [3][5] - The pressure of housing costs has led many young people to delay marriage or remain single, with the number of single adults reaching 240 million in 2018 [5] Group 3 - Addressing the housing issue is seen as key to encouraging higher birth rates, as providing affordable housing can alleviate living burdens and enable families to raise children [7] - The government has aimed to return housing to its residential purpose since 2016, with policies leading to a general decline in housing prices in the second half of 2021 and increased construction of affordable housing [8] Group 4 - Reducing the cost of raising children is also crucial, with suggestions for tax and housing subsidies to ease the financial burden on families, alongside increasing the availability of childcare facilities [10] - A collective societal effort is needed to alleviate young people's living pressures, enabling them to start families and contribute to reversing the declining population trend [12]

Core Insights - The forum highlighted the transition in China's real estate sector from a focus on property as a wealth generator to a more sustainable model that prioritizes living quality and community needs [2][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for diversified income sources for urban residents, signaling a shift away from the "property-centric" wealth logic [7][10] Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - 70% of urban household wealth is tied to real estate, meaning a 10% fluctuation in property prices can impact trillions in household assets [7] - New residential prices in 70 major cities have been declining, with a 0.4% month-on-month drop in September and a 0.6% drop in second-hand housing prices, marking the largest decline since last year's fourth quarter [7][10] - In first-tier cities, second-hand housing prices have decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with some hot school district properties in Guangzhou and Shenzhen seeing price drops exceeding 20% from peak values [7] Group 2: Land Finance Transformation - Local governments are shifting from "incremental land sales" to "stock operation," indicating a move away from reliance on land finance, which has historically been a significant revenue source [4][10] - Over 80% of local government revenue comes from land sales, but there has been a 10% year-on-year decline in land transfer fees in key cities, while some core cities like Shanghai and Beijing have seen a 19.7% increase in land sales revenue [10][11] - The new model proposed in the "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on improving existing properties and enhancing their quality and efficiency, such as converting idle office buildings into residential spaces [11] Group 3: Youth Housing Challenges - Young people, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are increasingly rejecting traditional milestones like homeownership, marriage, and parenthood due to financial pressures, with housing costs consuming over 70% of their average income [12][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to address youth housing issues by optimizing affordable housing supply and ensuring quality living conditions, which could encourage young people to consider marriage and family [13][14] - A survey indicated that 68% of young people would consider marriage and children if stable affordable housing were available, highlighting the need for housing solutions that do not compromise their financial freedom [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of real estate will focus on understanding and meeting the needs of residents rather than merely increasing the quantity of housing [15][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a guiding framework for transitioning the real estate sector towards a model that supports sustainable living and community well-being, moving away from the "land myth" [15][16]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent government interventions in the real estate market, highlighting a series of supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing housing demands [1][8] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding policy directions and market changes rather than merely waiting for price fluctuations [1] Financial Policies - In 2025, the central bank implemented multiple rounds of policy adjustments, significantly lowering mortgage rates, with the public housing fund loan rate reduced by 0.25 percentage points, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest [3] - The commercial mortgage rates also remained low, with the first mortgage rate in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing dropping to a historical low of 3.05%, resulting in substantial savings on interest payments compared to previous years [4] Tax Incentives - A comprehensive tax reduction policy was introduced in 2025, expanding the coverage and benefits for homebuyers, including a reduction in the deed tax rate for homes up to 140 square meters and including second homes in major cities [5] - The first month of the policy saw a tax reduction of 11.69 billion yuan, indicating a significant impact on transaction costs and market efficiency [5] Supply and Demand Coordination - The government is accelerating the construction of affordable housing while also facilitating the acquisition of existing homes, creating a dual supply system to meet housing needs [6] - Financial support mechanisms, including a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, are in place to ensure the effective implementation of these policies [6] Market Signals - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices and some cities experiencing price increases, indicating a positive trend [7] - The government's focus is on stabilizing supply and demand, reducing costs, and enhancing housing security, rather than inflating property prices [7] Conclusion - The series of policies introduced in 2025 reflect a commitment to stabilize the real estate market and protect livelihoods, providing clear guidance for potential homebuyers [8] - A balanced and sustainable real estate market is emerging under the government's supportive measures, encouraging rational purchasing decisions based on individual needs and economic capabilities [8]

Core Insights - Wuhan's natural resources and urban construction bureau announced the auction of 27 plots of land with a total starting price of 87.99 billion yuan, including 24 residential plots priced at approximately 83.53 billion yuan, set for online auction on December 9, 2025 [2][22] - This concentrated land supply is a strategic move to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence in the real estate sector during a period of significant adjustment [2][10] Land Supply Overview - The auction features a total of 27 plots, with 24 designated for residential use, accounting for 88.9% of the total [20] - The distribution of the plots spans across eight administrative districts in Wuhan, with New District and Jiangxia District each having 9 plots, while other districts have fewer [2][20] Regional Distribution - The land supply reflects a shift from a "single-core concentration" to a "multi-center radiation" model, with 20 plots located in suburban areas and only 6 in the main urban area, indicating a strategic focus on both population overflow and high-quality resource allocation [2][20] Key Plot Highlights - The auction includes notable plots such as: - Jianghan District P(2025) 172, with a floor price exceeding 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating its premium location [4][20] - East Lake High-tech Zone P(2025) 170, which has the highest total starting price among the plots, suggesting its significance in the market [5][20] Pricing Structure - The floor prices for residential plots vary significantly, ranging from 2,040 yuan to 10,002 yuan per square meter, catering to different market segments and allowing for diverse investment strategies [9][20] - The pricing strategy emphasizes a "small area, high price" approach in urban areas, reflecting a refined management philosophy based on demand [9][20] Policy and Market Confidence - The auction is characterized by systematic institutional innovations, aiming to create a virtuous cycle in the "land-development-sales" framework, which is expected to instill confidence in the market [10][20] - The implementation of supportive policies, such as the "Han Nine Articles," aims to lower purchasing costs and stimulate demand, further enhancing market stability [14][20] Implications for Buyers - The concentrated supply of residential land signals a secure supply for new homes over the next 1-2 years, reducing the urgency for panic buying among potential homebuyers [11][20] - Buyers are encouraged to focus on high-end projects in the main urban areas, particularly in districts like Jianghan, Qiaokou, and Hanyang, where smaller plots are likely to be developed into premium offerings [11][20] Conclusion - The upcoming auction represents not just a land transaction but also a reflection of Wuhan's urban development strategy, addressing the demand for quality assets while adhering to the principle of "housing for living, not speculation" [12][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in housing prices in China, which has shifted from a period of continuous growth to a substantial downturn, with average prices in first and second-tier cities expected to drop by approximately 40% by 2025 compared to their peak in 2021, and some third and fourth-tier cities experiencing declines exceeding 50% [1][3]. Impact of Housing Price Decline - The decline in housing prices has unexpectedly affected consumer sentiment, leading to a decrease in consumption despite lower prices, with retail sales growth dropping to 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, while household savings reached a historical high of 151.2 trillion yuan [3][5]. - The phenomenon of "reverse wealth effect" is at play, where falling property values, which constitute nearly 70% of household assets, make residents feel poorer, prompting them to cut back on spending and increase savings [3][5]. Generational Impact - Families that purchased homes during the price peak from 2016 to 2021, particularly those born in the 1980s and 1990s, are facing significant wealth losses, with an estimated total loss of 9 trillion yuan if each property is valued at an average decline of 1 million yuan [5][7]. - Older generations, such as those born in the 1960s and 1970s, who bought properties at lower prices, still retain profits despite the downturn, while younger generations have yet to purchase homes and may benefit from lower entry prices [7]. Market Dynamics and Structural Changes - The real estate market is undergoing a fundamental shift from being an "economic engine" to a "livelihood guarantee," with a focus on housing as a necessity rather than an investment, as indicated by the government's "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy [9][11]. - The urbanization rate in China has increased from 36% in 2000 to 68% in 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics where the primary concern has moved from availability to quality of housing [9][11]. Changes in Land Supply and Demand - Local governments are adopting a "reduce quantity, improve quality" strategy, with a 20% year-on-year decrease in planned residential land supply for 2025, leading to a widening price gap between core and non-core urban areas [11][13]. - The demand structure is also evolving, with traditional "just need" housing demand softening as purchasing decisions are delayed due to unstable income expectations [11][13]. Transition to Innovation-Driven Economy - The decline in housing prices and the contraction of the real estate sector are seen as corrections to a distorted wealth distribution model, shifting resources from real estate to support the development of the manufacturing sector [15][17]. - Investment in high-tech manufacturing has increased by 22.3% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a significant shift in economic focus [15][17]. Long-term Economic Implications - The transition from a reliance on real estate to an innovation-driven economy is expected to enhance China's position in the global value chain and promote sustainable growth, with a focus on supporting technological self-reliance and high-end manufacturing [17][19]. - Although this adjustment may cause short-term pain, it is anticipated to lead to better resource allocation and high-quality economic development in the long run, as the real estate sector returns to its fundamental role in providing housing [19][21].

图片来源：视觉中国 每经记者｜吴若凡 董青枝 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 对房地产领域的宏观调控，中央再次提高了调门，首次明确提出"坚决遏制房价上涨"。 中共中央政治局7月31日召开会议，会议提出，下决心解决好房地产市场问题，坚持因城施策，促进供 求平衡，合理引导预期，整治市场秩序，坚决遏制房价上涨。加快建立促进房地产市场平稳健康发展长 效机制。 向市场传递出坚定信号 根据新华网的报道，今年1~6月，各地房地产调控政策发布次数高达192次，比去年同期的116次多出 65%。共有73个城市出台调控政策，包含限购政策135条、限贷政策176条，51个城市以及海南全域实行 限售政策。 本次中共中央政治局会议提出，"坚决遏制房价上涨"，这向市场传递出了前所未有的坚定信号。 全联房地产商会创会会长聂梅生在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时认为，此次政治局会议所提出的决 心力度空前，值得市场高度关注。中共中央政治局会议提出的政策与之前房地产政策的指导思想是一致 的，主要内容也是一脉相承的，都是为了引导房地产市场稳定发展。 在聂梅生看来，今年上半年整个房地产市场的销售量、销售额、房地产指数、房企信心指数等运行都处 于比较乐观的区间，加上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to experience a shift, with only 20% of core cities likely to see price increases, while 80% of cities may continue to decline in value. This perspective is based on extensive research and historical data analysis of real estate trends [3][4][5]. Policy Signals - The real estate market is heavily influenced by government policies, including monetary, tax, and land policies. The recent shift in policy towards "promoting stability in the real estate market" indicates a move towards a relaxation phase, which could lead to the removal of various purchase and loan restrictions [5][7]. - A combination of policy measures is anticipated, including the lifting of purchase restrictions, a significant decrease in mortgage rates, and tax reductions to restore market confidence. These measures are expected to stimulate demand and support price increases [7][8]. Economic Indicators - Economic recovery, indicated by rising employment and income levels, is essential for supporting the real estate market. The manufacturing PMI new orders index serves as a leading indicator for economic turning points, which historically correlates with real estate price increases [8][11]. - Other indicators such as the urban resident income confidence index and employment expectation index are also critical for assessing market sentiment and potential price movements [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The relationship between supply and demand is crucial for real estate pricing. A decrease in available residential land and an influx of population into key cities will likely improve the supply-demand balance, leading to price increases in those areas [11][14]. - Notable cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen are experiencing significant population growth, which is expected to drive continuous housing demand [11][14]. Summary of Key Signals - The three core signals for potential real estate price increases are: a shift in policy from "relaxation" to "encouragement," the emergence of economic turning points with rising leading indicators, and a reversal in supply-demand dynamics favoring key cities [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent real estate policies introduced in Foshan, Guangdong aim to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market by addressing various aspects such as housing demand, land revitalization, and housing security, with a notable focus on foreign buyers and expatriates [1][3][5] Group 1: Housing Demand - The new policies enhance support for housing provident fund loans, allowing eligible foreign nationals to apply for loans when purchasing property in Foshan [3] - The policies also enable employees with housing provident fund contributions from other regions to convert their outstanding commercial housing loans into provident fund loans, expanding the applicability of this conversion [3] Group 2: Land Revitalization - The policies emphasize revitalizing existing land and assets by encouraging the recovery of idle land through legal negotiations and allowing for the re-supply of land after optimizing its planning use [4] - There is a focus on transforming commercial land for new uses, including converting undeveloped commercial land for public services such as housing, healthcare, and sports facilities [4] Group 3: Housing Security - The policies optimize the criteria for calculating housing transaction tax based on actual housing conditions, which aims to lower the threshold for home purchases [3] - The introduction of a "housing safety inspection" system in Zhengzhou reflects a shift towards managing the lifecycle of housing, emphasizing safety and quality management [4][5] Group 4: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that Foshan's policies respond effectively to diverse market demands, particularly signaling a welcoming environment for foreign talent and expatriates, which could enhance urban vitality [5] - The combined initiatives from Foshan and Zhengzhou indicate a new direction for China's real estate market, focusing on sustainable and people-oriented development under the principle of "housing is for living, not for speculation" [5]

最近房地产市场的政策变化可以说是频繁得很，北京、上海这两座一线城市不断传出放宽限购的消息，再配合银行推直售房产，中介行业规范化这些步伐， 也让楼市那些不合理的限制逐步被清理出来，节奏明显加快啦。 这次的调整到底是为了稳住市场，还是为了帮着买房的人呢？面对这种局面，各方该怎么迎接挑战，做出应对的策略？ 这次楼市政策的变动，可不是简单的点对点调整，而是一套全方位的松绑组合拳，重中之重就是要清除那些不合理的限制，推进的节奏远远超出市场的预 料。 关于核心城市限购方面的变化，北京已经明确表示五环外的符合条件家庭购买房产不再限制套数，而上海则是在8月25日推出的沪六条政策中，直接放宽了 外环外的购房限制。 只要交满一年的社保，不管你是本地户口还是外地户口，无论是家庭还是单身，在外环外买房都不用担心套数限制。 而且呢，外环外买房的好处还不少，一旦在外面购置了房产，你在市区还能继续享受首套房的资格。 之所以要加快清理楼市那些不合理的政策，主要是因为眼下房地产市场遇到的问题已经不能忽视，特别是一线城市的结构性矛盾变得格外明显。 也就是说，京沪这两个限购的最后防线，最终都选择了在外围区域先行宽松，这和之前广州、深圳的政策调整不 ...