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华源晨会精粹20251203-20251203
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-12-03 14:06
Group 1: North Exchange IPO Insights - In the first 11 months of 2025, 23 companies completed their IPOs on the North Exchange, raising a total of 6.7 billion yuan, surpassing the total fundraising of 2024 [2][6] - The average first-day increase for new stocks in November was 471%, with a notable contribution from Dapeng Industrial, which saw a first-day increase of over 12 times [2][7] - The average online subscription amount reached 6.469 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, indicating increasing competition and a decline in the average winning rate to 0.038% [7][8] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Developments - The real estate sector saw a 0.7% increase, with new home transactions in 42 key cities rising by 9.8% week-on-week, totaling 206 million square meters [9][10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is promoting the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs to enhance investment tools and support new real estate development models [10][11] - Various cities are implementing policies to stimulate the housing market, such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and enhancing supply chain management [11][12] Group 3: Ninebot Company Analysis - Ninebot is a leading global player in smart short-distance transportation and service robots, with a revenue of 11.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76.1% [14][15] - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its technological expertise and established overseas brand channels, particularly after acquiring Segway in 2015 [15][16] - The main business segments include high-end electric two-wheelers and a recovering revenue stream from B2B and self-branded scooters, with significant growth expected in new product categories like all-terrain vehicles and robotic lawn mowers [16][17]
打新市场跟踪月报20251201:新股募资规模环比回落,网下询价账户持续扩容-20251201
EBSCN· 2025-12-01 10:51
- The report introduces a quantitative model for calculating IPO returns based on the formula: **Single account IPO return = min(account size, subscription limit) * winning rate * return rate** **A/B class investors full subscription return = subscription limit * A/B class offline winning rate * return rate** The winning rate considers actual offline IPO results, and the return rate is calculated using the first-day average transaction price relative to the issue price for registered IPOs, or the average transaction price on the opening day for non-registered IPOs[42][43][48] - The model evaluates IPO returns across different market segments (Main Board, ChiNext, STAR Market) and investor classes (A/B). For November 2025, the calculated IPO return rates for a 5-billion-scale account are: **Main Board:** A class: 0.037%, B class: 0.035% **ChiNext:** A class: 0.058%, B class: 0.058% **STAR Market:** A class: 0.046%, B class: 0.045%[43][44][47] - The cumulative IPO return rates for 2025 are: **A class:** 1.716% **B class:** 1.399% These values are based on a 5-billion-scale account participating in all IPOs during the year[49][50][51] - Full subscription returns for November 2025 are calculated as follows: **Main Board:** A class: 19 million yuan, B class: 17.9 million yuan **ChiNext:** A class: 31.3 million yuan, B class: 31.2 million yuan **STAR Market:** A class: 22.8 million yuan, B class: 22.6 million yuan[52][53][55]
元鼎证券|如何提高打新中签率与上市首日的收益确定性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 01:47
Core Insights - The article discusses strategies to improve the success rate of new stock subscriptions and the certainty of returns on the first day of listing [1][3] Group 1: Strategies for Improving Subscription Success Rate - Effective fund management is crucial to ensure sufficient capital for new stock subscriptions, as excessive funds may lower the success rate due to allocation based on subscription quantity [1] - Staying informed about new stock information, including company fundamentals, industry outlook, and financial status, aids in assessing investment value and enhances subscription success probability [3] - Choosing the right subscription timing by analyzing historical data and market trends can help avoid peak periods, typically selecting a time frame from two days before the issuance to the subscription day [3] Group 2: Techniques to Enhance First-Day Return Certainty - Utilizing multiple accounts for subscription can increase the chances of success if conditions permit [3] - Participating in offline subscriptions generally yields a higher success rate due to the larger participation of institutional and major individual investors [3] - Understanding market sentiment is vital, as positive market conditions encourage more investors to subscribe, thereby increasing success rates [3] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Considerations - Long-term holding of fundamentally strong companies with growth potential can yield satisfactory returns, even if the initial subscription success rate is low [3] - Diversifying investments across different stocks or sectors can mitigate risks and enhance overall return certainty [3] - Continuous monitoring of market performance post-listing is essential, as both first-day performance and subsequent market behavior are critical for strategy adjustments [3] Group 4: Knowledge and Experience Sharing - Learning investment knowledge and exchanging experiences with other investors can elevate overall investment skills, thereby improving subscription success rates and first-day return certainty [3]
这类理财,业绩亮眼
中国基金报· 2025-11-30 13:54
部分混合类理财短期业绩爆发 【导读】混合类理财产品业绩亮眼,年内最高单位净值增长率接近36% 中国基金报记者 李树超 张玲 今年以来,混合类理财产品业绩亮眼,短期业绩爆发,最高单位净值增长率接近36%。 业内人士表示,随着权益市场回暖,细分板块结构性机会增多,混合类理财产品业绩爆发。 在存款利率持续下调的大背景下,混合类理财产品仍有较大发展空间,建议理财机构不断加 强权益投研能力建设,做好多元配置与产品创新,更好满足市场差异化投资需求。 编辑:张洁 Wind数据显示,截至11月27日,超九成混合类理财产品今年以来单位净值增长率为正,11 只产品单位净值增长率超20%,最高达35.97%。 该类产品短期业绩也呈现爆发势头。普益理财数据显示,截至2025年三季度末,混合类理财 产品近7日、近1个月平均年化收益率分别为13.21%、6.62%,较上季度分别上升112.44个 百分点、35.32个百分点,收益弹性显著提升。 中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏表示,年内混合类理财业绩表现突出的原因有权益市场回 暖、策略精细化运作、资产配置多元化等。部分产品短期业绩爆发式增长,主要驱动因素是 对特定市场板块阶段性机会的精准捕捉 ...
X @Yuyue
Yuyue· 2025-11-28 22:37
Market Trends & Opportunities - Solana上的中大市值应用币在大盘阴跌情况下表现出良好弹性,部分应用币底部涨幅显著,行业建议持续关注Solana上的应用币打新机会 [1] - JupiterExchange的DTF平台定位为社区驱动型应用币项目发射平台,采用社区优先的公开ICO模式 [1] Project Analysis - HumidiFi已成为Sol/稳定币市场的领先者,近7日交易量位居Solana Program第四名,仅次于Jup聚合器、Pumpfun AMM和Raydium CLMM [1] Platform Philosophy - DTF平台的核心理念是透明(Transparency)、确定(Certainty)和公平(Fairness) [1]
摩尔线程遭网上投资者弃购334.86万元!投行人士:大概率是中签了账上没钱
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-27 12:52
Core Viewpoint - The IPO of Moore Threads (688795) faced a situation where online investors abandoned subscriptions, indicating potential operational issues among investors despite high demand for the stock [1] Summary by Category IPO Results - Moore Threads announced its IPO results on November 27, revealing that online investors abandoned 29,302 shares, amounting to approximately 3.35 million yuan [1] - Online investors subscribed to 16.77 million shares, contributing a total of 1.917 billion yuan [1] - Offline investors subscribed to 39.2 million shares, with an effective subscription amount of 4.48 billion yuan, showing no abandonment [1] Underwriting and Subscription Details - The entire number of shares abandoned by online investors was underwritten by the lead underwriter, amounting to 29,302 shares and approximately 3.35 million yuan [1] - The underwritten shares represented about 0.05% of the total issuance after deducting the final strategic placement and about 0.04% of the total issuance scale [1] Company Background - Moore Threads is recognized as the "first domestic GPU stock" and launched its subscription on November 24, with an issue price of 114.28 yuan per share, marking it as the most expensive new stock of the year [1]
打新,爆了!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-11-24 14:40
(原标题:打新,爆了!) 【导读】"国产GPU第一股"摩尔线程新股,网上发行初步申购超4000倍 中国基金报记者 江右 备受关注的摩尔线程发行中签率结果出炉。网上发行初步的申购倍数达4126.49倍。启动回拨机制后, 网上发行最终中签率为0.03635054%。 摩尔线程之所以受关注,不仅因为它是热门股,还因为其上市后投资者可能获得的盈利空间较大。按 500股一签,中一签的金额为5.71万元。如果上市后涨幅100%,中一签可赚超5万元;涨幅200%的话, 则一签可赚超10万元。 今年以来的科创板新股,上市首日不论是开盘涨幅、收盘涨幅还是平均价涨幅,都超过200%。 编辑:格林 校对:王玥 制作:小茉 "国产GPU第一股"网上初步申购超4000倍 11月24日晚间,摩尔线程新股发行申购情况和中签率披露。根据上交所提供的数据,本次网上发行有效 申购户数为4826579户,有效申购股数为46216647000股,网上发行初步中签率为0.02423369%。 根据摩尔线程公布的回拨机制,由于本次网上发行初步有效申购倍数约为4126.49倍,超过100倍,发行 人和保荐人(主承销商)决定启动回拨机制,对网下、网上发行的 ...
打新,爆了!
中国基金报· 2025-11-24 13:36
【导读】"国产GPU第一股"摩尔线程新股,网上发行初步申购超4000倍 中国基金报记者 江右 备受关注的摩尔线程发行中签率结果出炉。网上发行初步的申购倍数达4126.49倍。启动回 拨机制后,网上发行最终中签率为0.03635054%。 摩尔线程是热门新股。此次科创板上市后,将成为"国产GPU第一股"。该股发行价高达 114.28元/股,中一签500股金额达5.71万元。如果新股上市涨1倍可赚超5万元,涨2倍则可 赚超10万元。 "国产GPU第一股"网上初步申购超4000倍 11月24日晚间,摩尔线程新股发行申购情况和中签率披露。根据上交所提供的数据,本次网 上发行有效申购户数为4826579户,有效申购股数为46216647000股,网上发行初步中签 率为0.02423369%。 根据摩尔线程公布的回拨机制,由于本次网上发行初步有效申购倍数约为4126.49倍,超过 100倍,发行人和保荐人(主承销商)决定启动回拨机制,对网下、网上发行的规模进行调 节,将扣除最终战略配售部分后本次公开发行股票数量的10%(向上取整至500股的整数 倍,即560.00万股)从网下回拨到网上。 回拨机制启动后:网下最终发行数量 ...
“打新定期跟踪”系列之二百三十九:新股摩尔线程询价,56%投资者选择最高档位
Huaan Securities· 2025-11-24 10:19
Content: --------- <doc id='1'>[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程一 周报 新股摩尔线程询价,56%投资者选择最高档位 ——"打新定期跟踪"系列之二百三十九 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期:2025-11-24 主要观点 ⚫ 跟踪近期打新收益率 跟踪近期科创板+创业板+主板的网下打新市场表现,假设所有主 板、科创板、创业板的股票都打中,且上市首日以市场均价卖出,忽 略锁定期的卖出限制,自 2025 年初起截至 2025/11/21,A 类 2 亿规 模账户打新收益率 2.81%,B 类 2 亿规模账户打新收益率 2.39%;A 类 10 亿规模账户打新收益率 1.03%,B 类 10 亿规模账户打新收益率 0.80%。 滚动跟踪近期 20 只新股上市后的涨幅表现,其中科创板个股上 市首日平均涨幅为 223.48%,创业板个股上市首日平均涨幅为 244.20%。</doc> <doc id='2'>跟踪近期新股的有效报价账户数,最近一只科创板新股 A 类有效 报价账户数量为 4440,B 类有效报价账户数量为 1759。最近一只创 业板新股 A 类有效报价账户数量为 4585 左右,B 类有效报价账户数 量为 2497。最近一只沪市主板新股 A 类有效报价账户数量为 5534, B 类有效报价账户数量为 2976,最近一只深市主板新股 A 类有效报 价账户数量为 4127,B 类有效报价账户数量为 2804。</doc> <doc id='3'>⚫ 风险提示 新股上市可能破发,打新策略可能取得负向收益。新股上市前面 临诸多不确定因素,可能会暂停发行,影响打新收益。新股上市数 量、申购新股人数、二级市场情绪波动等因素可能影响打新收益。基 金公司历史入围率不代表未来,本文意见仅供参考。</doc> <doc id='4'>执业证书号:S0010520070001 邮箱:yanjw@hazq.com 分析师:钱静闲 执业证书号:S0010522090002 邮箱:qianjx@hazq.com 分析师:吴正宇 执业证书号:S0010522090001 邮箱:wuzy@hazq.com 分析师:骆昱杉 执业证书号:S0010522110001 邮箱:luoyushan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告</doc> <doc id='5'>[Table_Author] 分析师:严佳炜 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 1.《禾元生物分三档询价,首家科创 成长层新股启动发行——"打新定 期跟踪"系列之二百三十二》 2.《9 月上市 8 只新股,2 亿规模 A 类户打新收益约 53 万元——"打新 定期跟踪"系列之二百三十三》 3.《科创成长层新股询价状况如何? ——"打新定期跟踪"系列之二百 三十四》 4.《新股超颖电子上市首日均价涨幅 达 339%——"打新定期跟踪"系 列之二百三十五》 5.《科创未盈利新股上市,西安奕材 上市均价涨幅高达 211%——"打 新定期跟踪"系列之二百三十六》 6.《近两个月打新收益环比上升—— "打新定期跟踪"系列之二百三十 七》 7.《科创板打新 A 类账户数超 4000 户——"打新定期跟踪"系列之二 百三十八》</doc> <doc id='7'>| 1 跟踪近期打新收益率 4 | | --- | | 2 近期新股打新结果 6 | | 3 近期新股日历 7 | | 4 近期打新市场表现 8 | | 4.1 近一个月内新上市股票 8 | | 4.2 近一个月打新收益测算 9 | | 5 理论打新收益测算 10 | | 5.1 不同规模账户逐股票打新 10 | | 5.2 不同规模 A 类户逐月打新收益 10 | | 5.3 不同规模 B 类户逐月打新收益 12 | | 风险提示: 13 |</doc> <doc id='9'>| 图表 | 1 2025 至今打新收益率(A 类账户) 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 2025 至今打新收益率曲线(A 类账户) 4 | | | 图表 | 3 2025 至今打新收益率(B 类账户) 4 | | | 图表 | 4 2025 至今打新收益率曲线(B 类账户) 4 | | | 图表 | 5 2023 年至今逐月上市规模(亿元) 5 | | | 图表 | 6 科创板个股近期涨幅 5 | | | 图表 | 7 创业板个股近期涨幅 5 | | | 图表 | 8 科创板个股报价账户数量 5 | | | 图表 | 9 创业板个股报价账户数量 5 | | | 图表 | 10 主板有效报价账户数量 6 | | | 图表 | 11 近期新股发行数量 7 | | | 图表 | 12 打新流程图 7 | | | 图表 | 13 待上市股票状态汇总 7 | | | 图表 | 14 待上市股票状态明细 7 | | | 图表 | 15 过去一周 IPO 日历 8 | | | 图表 | 16 摩尔线程各档位询价情况 8 | | | 图表 | 17 本周 IPO 日历(持续更新) 8 | | | 图表 | 18 近期新上市股票首次开板涨跌幅与募资金额(亿元) 9 | | | 图表 | 19 近期新上市股票满中收益(万元) 9 | | | 图表 | 20 近期各股票 A 类实际打新表现 10 | | | 图表 | 21 近期不同规模账户逐股票网下打新收益(万元) 10 | | | 图表 | 22 A 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(所有板块) 11 | | | 图表 | 23 A 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(科创板) 11 | | | 图表 | 24 A 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(创业板) 11 | | | 图表 | 25 A 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(主板) 12 | | | 图表 | 26 B 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(所有板块) 12 | | | 图表 | 27 B 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(科创板) 12 | | | 图表 | 28 B 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(创业板) 13 | | | 图表 | 29 B 类户逐月网下打新收益(单位:万元)和打新收益率(主板) | 13 |</doc> <doc id='10'>[Table_CommonRptType] 金融工程</doc> <doc id='11'>1 跟踪近期打新收益率 我们跟踪近期科创板+创业板+主板的网下打新市场表现,假设所有主板、科创 板、创业板的股票都打中,且上市首日以市场均价卖出,忽略锁定期的卖出限制, 自 2025 年初起截至 2025/11/21,A 类 2 亿规模账户打新收益率 2.81%,B 类 2 亿 规模账户打新收益率 2.39%;A 类 10 亿规模账户打新收益率 1.03%,B 类 10
A股:新股摩尔线程发行申购,发行价114.28元,股民打新或许会纠结!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 04:21
Core Viewpoint - The IPO of Moer Thread is notable for its high issuance price of 114.28 yuan, the highest for new stocks this year, despite the company not being profitable yet [1][2][3] Group 1: IPO Details - Moer Thread plans to issue 11.2 million shares, requiring a minimum investment of 110,000 yuan in Shanghai stocks for full subscription [1][2] - The company aims to raise approximately 8 billion yuan, with funds allocated for the development of AI training chips and graphics chips [5][6] - The total market capitalization post-IPO is estimated at 53.719 billion yuan, positioning it among the larger recent IPOs [7] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, Moer Thread reported revenues of 785 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -724 million yuan, reflecting an 18.71% increase in losses [3][4] - The company has shown significant revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues increasing from 46.08 million yuan to 785 million yuan [4] - Future projections indicate a revenue growth of 177.79% to 241.65% and a net profit growth of 27.82% to 54.89% for 2025 [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The high issuance price and lack of profitability may create hesitation among cautious investors, but the company's strong reputation in its field could attract more aggressive investors [2][3] - The recent trend of unprofitable new stocks not experiencing a drop in price on their first trading day has bolstered investor confidence [2] - The entry barrier for retail investors on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, requiring a minimum asset of 500,000 yuan, limits participation, leading to mixed feelings among potential investors [9]