Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to face inventory build - up pressure and decline from high levels [2][4] - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate around high levels [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 765.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.59%). The previous day's position was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores remained stable, while prices of some domestic ores decreased [4] - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project on November 11 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,044 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,252 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [8] - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. There were also changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in November [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: There were price changes in futures contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Spot prices and various price differences also had corresponding changes [12] - **News**: There were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke, and changes in the tender quantity of a large steel group [12][13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of JM2601 was 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (- 0.4%); J2601 was 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [16] - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: There were price, trading volume, and position changes in different log futures contracts. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while others had slight changes [19] - **News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The outlooks range from high-level fluctuations to weak and volatile trends, with most commodities showing a neutral trend strength [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movement**: Futures contract I 2601 closed at 776.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%). Imported ore prices decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton across different grades, while some domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis for I 2601 against Super Special decreased by 7.1 yuan to 118.5 yuan [5] - **Trend**: High-level fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][6] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price Movement**: Rebar futures RB2601 closed at 3,024 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan (-1.21%); hot-rolled coil futures HC2601 closed at 3,253 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan (-0.85%). Spot prices for both decreased, and the basis for both futures contracts also decreased [9] - **Trend**: Weak and volatile due to sector sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Movement**: Ferrosilicon futures prices increased, with the 2601 contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. Silicomanganese futures prices also rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 5776 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. Spot prices for ferrosilicon decreased, while the price of silicomanganese:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 remained unchanged. The basis and various spreads showed different changes [13] - **Trend**: Wide-range fluctuations due to a combination of long and short factors, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: Coking coal futures JM2601 closed at 1268.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan (1.2%); coke futures J2601 closed at 1753 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (1.4%). Some spot prices for coking coal increased, while others remained stable. Coke spot prices also showed some increases [16] - **Trend**: High-level fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][17] Logs - **Price Movement**: Different log futures contracts showed small price increases, while trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. Spot-futures spreads also changed [19] - **Trend**: Fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [18][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing weak and volatile trends due to sector sentiment disturbances [2]. - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - **Production**: In mid - October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.14 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.014 million tons, a daily output decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. According to the November 30th weekly data from Shanghai Steel Union, rebar production increased by 55,200 tons, hot - rolled coil by 11,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 99,700 tons [2][4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 195,900 tons, hot - rolled coil by 83,300 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 410,900 tons [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar apparent demand increased by 61,700 tons, hot - rolled coil by 51,600 tons, and the total by 236,500 tons [5]. - **Futures Data**: For the RB2601 rebar futures contract, the closing price was 3,044 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.42%); trading volume was 1,016,465 lots, open interest was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots. For the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures contract, the closing price was 3,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (-1.03%); trading volume was 375,271 lots, open interest was 1,396,130 lots, a decrease of 26,705 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in major cities generally declined, with the largest drop of 30 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan steel billet remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton to 166 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. The RB2601 - RB2605 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to -64 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 - HC2605 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [2]. **Macro and Industry News** - The Ministry of Commerce and four other departments support eligible commercial real estate projects to issue real estate investment trust funds (REITs) to provide long - term financing support for urban commercial upgrading [5]. - The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes to promote the quality improvement and upgrading of key industries and enhance the independent controllability of the industrial chain, with requirements for the high - quality development of the steel industry [5][6]. - In September 2025, China's steel exports were 10.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%, and the export average price was 679.1 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. From January to September, cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%, and the average export price was 696.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5%. In September, steel imports were 548,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.7%, and the average import price was 1,623.1 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. From January to September, cumulative steel imports were 4.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%, and the average import price was 1,692.3 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights the support from five government departments for the issuance of REITs in commercial real estate, aiming to provide long-term financing support for urban commercial quality improvement [1][7]. - The total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 198.2 billion yuan, with 76 REITs issued as of October 31, 2025 [8][9]. - The report indicates that the REITs market has shown positive performance, with the total REITs index rising by 0.28% during the week of October 27 to October 31, 2025, outperforming major indices [2][14]. Group 2 - The liquidity of the REITs market has improved, with a total trading volume of 661 million yuan, an increase of 21.4% compared to the previous week [3][34]. - The report details the trading volume of various REIT categories, with consumption infrastructure REITs accounting for 21.0% of the total trading volume [34][36]. - The report provides insights into the performance of individual REITs, with notable gains from Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT (+4.22%) and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT (+4.09%) [2][26]. Group 3 - The report discusses the correlation of the REITs index with major asset classes, indicating varying degrees of correlation over different time frames [28][30]. - The internal correlation among different REIT categories is also analyzed, showing strong relationships among infrastructure and logistics REITs [29]. Group 4 - The report emphasizes the valuation aspects of REITs, although specific valuation metrics are not detailed in the provided content [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing repeated macro sentiments and wide-range fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with trading volume of 1,440,978 lots and an open interest of 1,894,916 lots (up 909 lots). For HC2601, the closing price was 3,318 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [3] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3230, 3290, 3180, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -10, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3330, 3370, 3260, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -30, -20, 0, and 0 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 3000 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2601 was 124 yuan/ton, and that of HC2601 was 12 yuan/ton. The spreads such as RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, HC2601 - RB2601, HC2605 - RB2605, and spot coil - rebar spread all had corresponding changes [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (Oct 30)**: Rebar production increased by 5.52 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.1 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 9.97 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 19.59 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.33 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 41.09 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 6.17 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 5.16 tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 23.65 tons [4] - **Policy News**: Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce support eligible commercial real estate projects to issue real estate investment trust funds (REITs). The 15th Five - Year Plan proposes directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry, such as promoting the quality improvement and upgrading of key industries and enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain [4][5] - **Production Data**: In September 2025, China produced 7349 million tons of crude steel (down 4.6% year - on - year), 6605 million tons of pig iron (down 2.4% year - on - year), and 12421.00 million tons of steel (up 5.1% year - on - year). From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel was 7.46 billion tons (down 2.9% year - on - year), pig iron was 6.46 billion tons (down 1.1% year - on - year), and steel was 11.04 billion tons (up 5.4% year - on - year) [5] - **Inventory Data**: In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1588 million tons, up 121 million tons (8.2%) from the previous ten - day period, 351 million tons (28.4%) from the beginning of the year, 6 million tons (0.6%) from the same ten - day period of last month, 115 million tons (7.8%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and down 48 million tons (2.9%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are pushed up by macro sentiment and are expected to fluctuate strongly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are driven by anti-involution sentiment and are expected to fluctuate strongly [2][12][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][16]. - Coking coal resonates with the macro and sector themes and is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][17]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 1.51%. The open interest decreased by 6,094 lots. The prices of imported and some domestic ores increased slightly. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 increased, with the latter rising 1.21%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The spot prices in various regions increased, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce support eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five-Year Plan proposes directions for the high-quality development of the steel industry. Steel production and inventory data for October 23 and September 2025 are provided, and the steel inventory of key enterprises in early October increased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 1 [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts increased. The spot prices of some products changed, and the basis, spreads, and cross-variety spreads also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are reported. A large ferrosilicon factory in Gansu reduced production, and a steel mill in Zhejiang set a purchase price for silicomanganese. The production of silicomanganese in northern regions in October decreased [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of some coking coal and coke products changed, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The spot prices of different types of logs in various regions remained stable or changed slightly [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [22].

Core Insights - The capital market in Henan province has played a crucial role in enhancing the quality and efficiency of local enterprises during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, transitioning from quantity accumulation to quality improvement [1][2] - The number of A-share listed companies in Henan has increased from 87 at the end of 2020 to 112, leading the central region of China [2] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Shuanghui Development have leveraged capital markets to solidify their industry positions and drive technological advancements [2][3] Capital Empowerment - The number of A-share listed companies in Henan has grown rapidly, with 13 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, making it the leader among six central provinces [2] - From 2021 onwards, Henan enterprises have consistently raised over 100 billion yuan through bond financing, with the total bond stock reaching 495.8 billion yuan, doubling since 2021 [2] - The average cost of bond issuance has decreased to 2.66%, down 212 basis points from its peak [2] - Since 2022, 18 listed companies in Henan have engaged in mergers and acquisitions, with 12 occurring in 2025 alone, involving over 30 billion yuan [2] Industry Development - Muyuan Foods has seen its revenue grow from 56.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 137.9 billion yuan in 2024, driven by significant investments in technology and innovation [3] - The company has filed 2,276 patents, with 138 granted in 2024 alone, reflecting its commitment to R&D [3] - The capital market has supported the development of high-end materials companies like DuPont and Longbai Group, which have invested over 10 billion yuan in technology upgrades [4][5] Performance and Returns - By August 2025, the number of A-share listed companies in Henan with a market value exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 35, doubling from the previous year [5] - Nearly 80% of listed companies reported profits in the first half of the year, with total revenue and net profit hitting record highs [5] - R&D investment among listed companies in Henan has increased, with an overall R&D intensity of 5.57% in 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Financial Tools and Services - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has become a significant player in the futures market, with 27 futures and 20 options listed, capturing 35.03% of the national market share [7] - The exchange has attracted 107 futures institutions and 2.2 trillion yuan in settlement funds [7] - The province has also implemented various financial initiatives, including private equity funds and REITs, to support the development of local enterprises [9][10] Policy Support - The Henan provincial government has introduced policies to support mergers and acquisitions, aiming to enhance traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [10] - The government plans to deepen cooperation with major stock exchanges to facilitate more companies in listing and financing [10]

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of the first foreign consumer REIT, Huaxia CapitaLand Commercial REIT, marks a significant milestone for CapitaLand Investment in China, coinciding with the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Singapore [1][2] Group 1: Fund Details - Huaxia CapitaLand Commercial REIT was launched with a fundraising target of 2.2872 billion RMB, and the total subscription amount exceeded 309.17 billion RMB during the offering phase [1] - The effective subscription multiples for public and offline investors reached 535.2 times and 252.6 times, respectively [1] Group 2: Management and Operations - CapitaLand Investment serves as the initiator and operational management entity for the REIT, with CITIC Securities as the special plan manager and Huaxia Fund as the fund manager [1] - The underlying assets of the fund include CapitaLand Plaza Yunshang and CapitaLand Plaza Yuhua Pavilion [1] Group 3: Market Potential and Strategy - CapitaLand Investment views the consumer REITs sector in China as having significant market space and development potential [1] - The company manages over 40 shopping centers across 18 cities in China, with total asset value exceeding 80 billion RMB, indicating a strong pipeline for future quality asset injections into the REIT [1] - The issuance of public REITs is expected to enhance CapitaLand Investment's asset liquidity, optimize capital structure, and support new project investments, creating a virtuous cycle of fundraising, investment, management, and exit [2]

Market Performance - The public REITs secondary market continued to decline, with the CSI REITs index down 0.20% to 838.34 points as of September 19 [1][3] - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.12%, closing at 1071.34 points [1][3] - Among the 74 listed public REITs, 38 saw an increase, while 35 experienced a decline, and 1 remained unchanged [1][3] Product Performance - The top three performing REITs were Huaxia Fund Huazhong REIT (+2.20%), China Merchants Highway REIT (+1.89%), and E Fund Shen Highway REIT (+1.57%) [1][3] - The three worst-performing REITs were Huaxia Tebian Electric New Energy REIT (-2.74%), Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (-1.79%), and ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT (-1.70%) [1][3] Sector Analysis - Data center REITs showed the best performance with a weekly increase of 1.32%, while ecological and highway sectors declined by 2.00% and 0.47%, respectively [3] - The weekly performance ranking from highest to lowest was: data center, warehousing and logistics, industrial parks, consumer, energy, affordable housing, highways, and ecological environment [3] Liquidity and Trading Volume - The total trading volume for REITs was 468 million yuan, a decrease of 19.0% week-on-week [4] - Trading volumes for property rights and operational rights REITs were 295 million yuan and 173 million yuan, reflecting declines of 20.9% and 15.7%, respectively [4] - The largest trading volume among REIT types was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 19.7% of total trading [4] Industry and Policy Developments - Three private REITs were accepted for review, including projects related to Tianjin Rail Transit and Qingdao Water Group [2][5] - A joint notice from the Ministry of Commerce and nine departments emphasized support for community commercial complexes and other consumer infrastructure projects to issue REITs [2][6] - As of September 19, there were 28 ABS projects in the year, with a total intended fundraising amount of approximately 564 billion yuan [6]

Market Performance - The public REITs secondary market continued to decline last week, with the CSI REITs Index falling by 0.20% to close at 838.3 points, while the CSI REITs Total Return Index increased by 0.12% to 1071.3 points [1][4] - Among the 74 listed public REITs, 38 saw an increase, 35 experienced a decline, and one remained unchanged. The top three performing products were Huaxia Fund Huayuan REIT (+2.20%), China Merchants Highway REIT (+1.89%), and E Fund Shen Highway REIT (+1.57%) [1][4][6] Sector Performance - The performance of various sectors showed divergence, with industrial park REITs up by 0.04%, logistics REITs up by 0.23%, while ecological and environmental protection REITs fell by 2.00%, and highway REITs decreased by 0.47% [4] - The weekly performance ranking from highest to lowest was: data centers, logistics, industrial parks, consumer, energy, affordable rental housing, highways, and ecological protection [4] Transaction Volume - The total transaction volume for REITs last week was 468 million yuan, a decrease of 19.0% compared to the previous week. The transaction volumes for property and operational REITs were 295 million yuan and 173 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 20.9% and 15.7% [9] - The transaction volumes for various REIT types included: 68 million yuan for park infrastructure, 59 million yuan for energy infrastructure, 44 million yuan for logistics, and 91 million yuan for traffic infrastructure, with traffic infrastructure accounting for 19.7% of total transactions [9] Industry and Policy Developments - Three private REITs were accepted for review last week, including projects related to Tianjin Rail Transit, China Railway Construction, and Qingdao Water Group [2][10] - On September 19, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice prioritizing support for community commercial complexes and other consumer infrastructure projects to issue REITs [2][10]