Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report - July 2, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the pig market has tightened, leading to an accelerated increase in prices. The overall supply pressure has decreased due to reduced sales motivation from large - scale enterprises, decreased inventory of ordinary farmers after a round of concentrated sales, and general enthusiasm for secondary fattening sales [4]. - Although the futures market has risen significantly, the substantial change in the fundamental situation is limited. The significant increase in the futures market is mainly a reflection of expectations for future price increases, and the room for a large - scale increase is expected to be limited. The inter - month spread of the futures market is expected to be mainly volatile and strong [6]. Summary by Content Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions showed an overall upward trend. The average price increased from 14.60 yuan/kg yesterday to 14.87 yuan/kg today, with an increase of 0.27 yuan/kg [4]. - The supply side has tightened. Large - scale enterprises have less motivation to sell, ordinary farmers' inventory has decreased, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening sales is average. The overall weight of pigs for sale has decreased, and future market pressure may still exist [4]. Futures Market - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend. For example, LH09 increased by 475 yuan from 13865 yuan yesterday to 14340 yuan today [4]. - The futures market's significant increase is mainly due to expectations of future price increases. The room for a large - scale increase is limited, and the inter - month spread is expected to be mainly volatile and strong [6]. Breeding and Slaughter - Piglet prices remained at 431 yuan this week, and sow prices remained at 1621 yuan. The self - breeding and self - raising profit increased from 19.40 yuan/head yesterday to 50.25 yuan/head today, and the profit from purchasing piglets increased from - 186.79 yuan/head yesterday to - 131.71 yuan/head today [4]. - The slaughter volume decreased from 138670 heads yesterday to 136895 heads today, a decrease of 1775 heads [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound [7]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long spread [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply in the pig market is sufficient, with an increase in the number of pigs for sale from the breeding side. The demand has entered the off - season due to rising temperatures, and the slaughtering enterprises' operation rate has room to decline seasonally. Overall, the pig market has no obvious boost and is expected to maintain a weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13090, down 115 or - 0.9%; LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13460, down 145 or - 1.1%; LH2511 closed at 13335, down 75 or - 0.6% [2][4]. - Spot: The national average commodity pig slaughter price was 14.31 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan or - 0.6%; the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan or - 0.8% [2][4]. 3.2 Monthly Spread, Basis, and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 370, down 30; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 125, up 70 [11]. - Basis: The basis for July was 830, down 485; the basis for September was 460, down 455 [11]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 475, an increase of 475 [11]. 3.3 Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglet market: The average price of weaned piglets was 486.19 yuan/head, down 19.38 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market continued to be weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment declined. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks, with low market replenishment enthusiasm [19]. - Commodity pig inventory: It is expected that the inventory of commodity pigs in June may decrease, and the inventory of large pigs over 140 kg has decreased [19]. 3.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread - National average: The weekly average standard - fat price spread was - 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg wider than last week. The prices of both standard and fat pigs decreased, with an increase in the supply of standard pigs and restricted movement of fat pigs between regions [23]. - Future trend: As the temperature rises, the demand for fat pigs will be further limited, and the standard - fat price spread may narrow [23]. 3.5 Slaughtering End - Slaughtering operation rate: It was 28.9%, down 0.45 percentage points from last week. The market demand declined, and the operation rate of slaughtering enterprises is expected to continue to decline [26]. - Fresh - meat sales rate: The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 88.36%, down 0.89 percentage points from last week, with slower fresh - meat sales [26]. - Frozen - meat storage rate: The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.32%, a slight increase of 0.04%. The trading volume of frozen meat was slow, and there was still involuntary storage in some areas [26]. 3.6 White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Market There is no clear summary information about white - striped pork and the wholesale market in the report, only some price and arrival - volume data are presented. 3.7 Profit and Cost - Self - breeding and self - raising: The weekly average profit was 94.98 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. - Purchasing piglets for breeding: The weekly average profit was 39.50 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. The improvement in profit was mainly driven by the decline in feed costs and the relatively stable pig prices [35]. 3.8 Market Information Summary - Supply: Some enterprises accelerated the slaughter of large - weight pigs, and the overall supply in June increased, with a loose market supply [38]. - Demand: As the temperature rises, it has entered the consumption off - season, and there is no holiday boost. The slaughtering volume still has room to decline [38]. - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are involuntarily stored [38]. - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [38]. - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [38]. - Market sentiment: The overall sentiment is pessimistic due to large supply and weak demand [38].

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.06.06 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Price Fluctuation and Weakening Basis" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Report Type: Weekly Market Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in pig prices to around 14 yuan/kg, and the short - term price is expected to remain weak. However, the futures market may have digested the expectations, with a smaller decline than the spot market, resulting in a weakening basis and a fluctuating adjustment trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Strategy: Wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7] - Market Review: Pig prices were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [8] - Outlook: Supply is increasing in the short and medium term, while demand is in the seasonal off - season, making it difficult to support prices [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: Futures were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [12] - Net Position: The net short position of the top 20 futures holders decreased, with 475 futures warehouse receipts (an increase of 475 from last week) [17] 3.3 Spot Market - Basis: The basis of the July contract was 910 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 540 yuan/ton [22] - Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average pig price was 14.638 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from last week and 3.36% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.14 yuan/kg, down 2.52 yuan/kg from last week and 6.75% from last month [29] - Pork and Sow Prices: The national pork market price was 25.60 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33] - Pig - Grain Ratio: The pig - grain ratio stopped falling and stabilized but was below the break - even point [37] 3.4 Upstream Supply - Sows: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40380000, slightly decreasing from the previous month. In May, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [42] - Pigs: In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased year - on - year, and in May, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data [45] - Slaughter: In May, the slaughter volume of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of June 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 120.8 yuan/head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 33.83 yuan/head. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.44 yuan/head, with a reduced loss compared to the previous week [51] - Import: From January to April 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 360000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88% but at a historically low level [57] - Substitutes: The price of white - striped chickens decreased, and the standard - fat price difference decreased month - on - month [60] - Feed: The price of soybean meal decreased, the price of corn increased, the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed index rose, the spot pig feed price remained unchanged, and the feed production decreased year - on - year [66][69][74] - CPI: As of April 2025, the year - on - year CPI decrease was 0.1%, with a narrowing decline [77] 3.6 Downstream Demand - Slaughter: The slaughter enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the frozen product storage capacity increased slightly. In April, the slaughter volume increased, and the catering consumption recovered year - on - year [80][85] 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks - Mentioned stocks include Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no in - depth analysis was provided [86]

研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 【生猪日报】供应压力仍存 价格偏弱运行 今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南（0） 14.35 14.59 -0.24 山 西 14.25 14.55 -0.3 湖北（0） 14.14 14.43 -0.29 辽 宁 14.10 14.29 -0.19 安徽（300） 14.52 14.77 -0.25 吉 林 14.03 14.24 -0.21 湖南（100） 14.21 14.28 -0.07 黑龙江 14.00 14.20 -0.2 四川（-200） 14.14 14.27 -0.13 福 建 14.72 14.72 0 江西（100） 14.37 14.37 0.00 广 东 15.17 15.18 -0.01 山东（0） 14.6 14.85 -0.25 广西(-200) 14.13 14.11 0.02 江苏（500） 14.65 14.87 -0.22 云 南 14.37 14.37 0 河北（-100） 14.38 14.63 -0.25 贵 州 14.17 14.27 - ...

Supply Side - The increase in supply is driven by the rise in the number of pigs being marketed, as farmers are increasing their slaughter rates due to lower prices for fattened pigs compared to benchmark pigs [1] - The second and third quarters are expected to see an increase in sow productivity, leading to greater supply pressure in the medium term [1] Demand Side - Terminal demand is declining, with slower sales of pork and a decrease in slaughterhouse operating rates; however, some regions are still experiencing passive inventory accumulation [1] - There may be a temporary increase in demand due to preparations for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [1] Price Movement - Overall, the increase in supply from farmers is causing prices to fluctuate and trend weakly, with the live pig futures contract (2509) down by 0.26% and trading below the moving average [1] - The market is advised to monitor the situation regarding the number of pigs being marketed, as prices may face further downward pressure [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of live pigs is gradually emerging, with prices showing an obvious downward trend. The overall pig price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market also declined significantly, but the continuous decline space is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Spot Prices**: Today, live pig prices across the country showed an obvious downward trend. For example, the price in Henan dropped from 15.06 to 14.96, and in Guangdong from 15.20 to 15.04. The average price remained unchanged at 14.37 [4]. - **Futures Prices**: All futures contracts showed a downward trend. For instance, LH01 dropped from 13825 to 13720, and LH09 dropped from 14020 to 13780 [4]. - **Sow/Piglet Prices**: Piglet prices decreased from 529 to 517, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1631 [4]. 3.2 Profit Information - **Spot Breeding Profits**: Self - breeding and self - raising profits decreased from 85.05 to 84.33, while profits from purchasing piglets increased from 48.53 to 58.46 [4]. 3.3 Slaughter - end Information - The slaughter volume decreased from 147682 to 146858, a decrease of 824 [4]. 3.4 Price Difference Information - **Contract Price Differences**: For example, LH7 - 9 increased from - 375 to - 285, while LH9 - 1 decreased from 195 to 60 [4]. - **Size Pig Price Differences**: The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.28 to 0.27, while the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increased from - 0.15 to - 0.13 [4]. 3.5 Market Situation and Forecast - The supply - side pressure is gradually emerging. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined. The scale enterprises' monthly - end出栏 rhythm has accelerated, and it is expected to continue in the short term. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market also has limited continuous decline space [4][5]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly fluctuate. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests short - term callback for long positions in pig prices and focuses on long - term bullish opportunities. Next week, the supply of the pig market may increase slightly while the demand may decrease slightly, so the price is likely to remain weakly stable [2][24]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis - Next week, the farming side will have normal slaughter. Large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress is acceptable. Second - fattening and large - weight pigs from individual farmers are being sold gradually with average transactions. The supply side may increase slightly [2][24]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Slaughtering enterprises purchase as needed, and there is a small amount of second - fattening entry. After the May Day holiday, demand has decreased, especially for large pigs. The demand side may decrease slightly [2][24]. 4. Cost Profit Analysis - There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. 5. Market Outlook - The supply side may see a slight increase in slaughter (from individual farmers), and the demand side will experience a slight reduction. On one hand, second - fattening has decreased, and on the other hand, demand has declined after the May Day holiday, especially for large pigs. The price is likely to remain weakly stable [2][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the pig market is expected to shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is predicted to fluctuate weakly. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential phased supply pressure, and the demand is cooling. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The pig price fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.11% weekly [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the post - festival slaughter rhythm of farmers is slow, and the slaughter weight remains stable. However, the price of fat pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening and weakening the enthusiasm for entry. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually appear after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the post - festival terminal demand declines, the sales speed of white - striped pigs slows down again, the slaughterhouse operating rate decreases, and there are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas. Overall, the short - term supply pressure is general, but the potential phased supply pressure exists, and the demand cools down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the main contract rose 0.11% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position in futures decreased, and there were 705 futures warehouse receipts [13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price this week was 14.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 0.47% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of April 30th, the national average pork price was 26.02 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year [43]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 6.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month but increased by 10.98% year - on - year [46]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month and 26.58% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month and 74.89% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight remained unchanged from last week [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, an increase of 9.92 yuan/head from the previous week, and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.71 yuan/head from the previous week [54]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the poultry breeding profit was - 0.30 yuan/head, and the weekly loss increased by 0.15 yuan/head [54]. 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [59]. 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of May 9th, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. - **Standard - Fat Pig Price Difference**: As of the week of May 8th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. 3.3.5 Feed Situation - **Feed Ingredient Prices**: As of May 8th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,358.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.28 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of May 9th, the corn price was 2,363.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.61 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 9th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 948.95, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week [72]. - **Feed Production**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [76]. 3.3.6 CPI - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [80]. 3.3.7 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Inventory**: In the 19th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 28.54%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.35 percentage points year - on - year. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughterhouses remained unchanged from the previous week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30.63 million, an increase of 40.7% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [88]. 3.3.8 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [89].

生猪日报 | 2025-05-09 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月8日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月矛盾仍在积累盘面震荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1245手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价13985元/ 吨，最低价13865元/吨，收盘于13910元/吨。 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情 ...