昨天，随着7宗开发用地挂牌出让结束，以及蓝田一宗住宅用地宣布终止出让，2025年西安开发用地出让正式收官。 正如大家所感受到的，不管是从土地成交面积、土地出让金金额，还是从溢价成交地块数量、"万元地"数量，以及大牌房企的拿地积极性，整个2025年都 呈现出下降态势。 而这种成交面积的下降，将会影响到接下来西安一些区域的新房供应，2026年逐步得到体现，有助于通过供需关系稳楼市。 当然，楼市要想真正企稳，还是需要房价止跌、信心的回升。 01 2025年西安开发用地成交金额557.8亿元 地产房剑统计显示：2025年全年，西安全市（含西咸新区）共计供应开发用地148宗，面积合计6737.7亩。 最终，共计成交123宗，成交面积5701.85亩，计容建面930.87万平方米，土地出让金收入合计557.8亿元。 与2024年相比，2025年西安开发用地成交面积下降39.73%，成交金额下降29.37%。 2025年的成交面积、成交金额，不到2023年的六成。 今年实际上新增了几个土地市场热点区域，分别为幸福林带片区、团结片区、西电片区，这三大片区均位于三环内，是目前西安主城区城市更新重点区 域。 其中，中国金茂&贝好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing proportion of second-hand housing transactions is recognized as a trend for the future, suggesting that the new housing market and the second-hand housing market should be viewed as a whole [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The national housing and urban construction work conference highlighted the significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, indicating a shift towards a stock development phase where new housing transactions decline while second-hand housing transactions increase [1] - According to a report by KPMG China, residential property sales area and investment completion amounts for the first 11 months of 2025 are only 48% and 62% of the same period in 2021, respectively, indicating an ongoing oversupply in the real estate market [2] - As of November 2025, the new and second-hand housing price indices have decreased by 12% and 21%, respectively, compared to the peak in August 2021 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - The inventory pressure in the housing market has shown signs of marginal improvement, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a continuous month-on-month decrease in the area of unsold commercial housing for nine consecutive months [2] - The expected inventory-to-sales ratio for the top ten major cities is projected to remain high at 21 months by the end of 2025, indicating a persistent inventory challenge [2] - The conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market by controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, particularly through the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [3] Group 3: Policy Measures - The conference outlined specific measures to revitalize existing housing stock, including urban renewal and the acquisition of existing properties for use as affordable housing, dormitories, and talent housing [3] - Future work will focus on preventing and mitigating real estate company debt risks, better meeting reasonable funding needs of homebuyers, and integrating "stabilizing the market" with "promoting transformation" [3] - The meeting also called for reforms in the housing provident fund system and the establishment of a new model for real estate development, emphasizing the importance of policy support and reform innovation to ensure a smooth transition from old to new models [4][5]

哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析过去一年，高层多次在重要会议中明确稳楼市的政策方 向，为市场稳定划好了蓝图。 国家统计局的官方数据却很直观，2025 年 4 月以来，一二三线城市二手房价连续多月环比回落，6 月后 回落态势还在加剧。 政策表述越来越清晰，可市场体感却没跟上，这种偏差让不少购房者心里打鼓。 其实核心问题很简单，稳楼市的关键不在于政策多不多，而在于政策执行到不到位。 宏观政策落地慢 2025 年 8 月 18 日，国务院第九次全体会议明确提出要巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，还提到了城市更 新、释放改善性需求等具体方向。 但从 8 月会议部署到 11 月，近三个月时间里，相关部委的配套政策一直没落地。直到 11 月 22 日，住 建部才通过新华网发布通知，要求各地建立城市体检与城市更新一体化推进机制新华网。 而此时，7 月就已经显现的房地产销售、价格下行趋势，因为政策响应不及时，压力进一步放大。 地方限购松得 "留一手" 高层明确要求地方结合市场变化优化限购政策，北京、上海在 2025 年 8 月率先调整，其他城市也陆续 跟进。 但这种调整大多 "不彻底"，北京允许符合条件的家庭在五环外不限 ...

中信建投研报认为，11月单月全国商品房销售面积同比下降17.3%，降幅较10月收窄1.5个百分点，销售 有较大降幅。房价下行压力持续，9-11月连续三个月份70个大中城市的二手住宅价格均出现环比下跌； 新建住宅价格环比上涨的城市数量偏少。中央经济工作会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"，延续了前期的 政策定调，稳楼市态度明确；更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策，也有望推动经济增长与房地 产市场稳定。11月单月投资及开竣工面临较大的下行压力，后续走势有赖于政策支持下销售的止跌回 稳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for boosting consumption and ensuring the resilience of the overall economy, necessitating decisive and innovative government policies to reverse market expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Relationship Between Real Estate and Consumption - The relationship between real estate and consumption is clear; a household's consumption ability depends on its asset value and future income expectations. The current decline in consumption is due to the significant reduction in household assets and weakened confidence in future income caused by the downturn in the real estate market [3][5]. - Experts emphasize the need to stabilize asset values and market expectations to solidify the foundation of consumption, aligning with the central government's repeated calls for "stabilizing housing prices, land prices, and expectations" [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Attributes of Real Estate - Real estate possesses both consumption and investment attributes, similar to government bonds and stocks. The current rental yield in some declining markets is approaching 2%, making it relatively attractive compared to savings [6]. - The shift in market expectations has led to a decline in transaction volumes despite falling prices, contrasting with typical consumer behavior where price drops stimulate sales. This change is attributed to a generational shift in perception, particularly among younger individuals who no longer view rising property prices as inevitable [6][7]. Group 3: Pathways to Stabilize the Real Estate Market - Experts suggest various strategies to address the current challenges in the real estate market, including the potential for easing purchase restrictions in major cities to stimulate market activity, as evidenced by positive trends in cities like Chengdu after policy relaxations [8][9]. - The central government is encouraged to utilize public financial tools to address local fiscal and financial issues, with the issuance of government bonds seen as a viable method to meet market demand for quality assets and support economic recovery [9][10]. - The establishment of a personal bankruptcy protection system is deemed urgent to alleviate the burdens on homeowners unable to continue mortgage payments, which would help protect consumer confidence and overall economic stability [10][11]. Group 4: Importance of Real Estate Stability - The stability of the real estate market is considered more critical than that of the stock market, as it affects a broader segment of the population and directly influences consumer confidence and asset security [11][12]. - The central government is believed to have the capability and experience to address the challenges in the real estate market through institutional innovation and policy tools, which can help restore a healthy market environment [11][12].

近日，中央经济工作会议在京举行，为衔接"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局明确方向。会议将推动高质量发展作为核心，在房地产领域作出系统部署，强调 以"稳预期、防风险、促转型"为主线，通过稳楼市与深化改革的协同推进，筑牢行业长期健康发展的基石。 "稳楼市"主线随形势动态强化：从2021年"促进良性循环"的宏观定调，迅速转向2022-2023年"保交楼、防风险"的应急应对，再升级为2024-2025年"止跌回 稳"、"控增量、去库存、优供给"的主动管理。其核心是防范系统性风险，为转型创造安全空间。 "深改革"主线则持续深化构建长效机制：从2021年"探索新发展模式"，到2023年明确"三大工程"与"完善基础性制度"作为抓手，再到2025年具体化为收购存 量房作保障房、推动"好房子"建设。这旨在从根本上优化供给结构，告别"高负债、高杠杆、高周转"旧模式。 二者协同体现为：短期"稳"的措施（如保交楼、去库存）直接缓解风险，为长期"改"的制度建设（基础性制度、新模式）赢得窗口期；而长期"改"的举措 （如保障房体系建设、"好房子"供给）又从源头稳定预期、创造新需求，巩固"稳"的基础。2025年表述中，将"收购存量商品房用于保障 ...

国家统计局12月15日发布数据显示，2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同 比降幅扩大。 房价环比总体下降 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降5.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点。其中，北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降6.8%、4.6%、7.2%和4.8%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比分别下降 5.6%和5.8%，降幅分别扩大0.4个和0.1个百分点。 环比方面，11月份，一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下 降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，上海上涨0.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.5%、0.5% 和0.9%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比分别下降0.3%和0.4%，降幅均收窄0.1个百分点。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降1.3%、0.8%、1.2%和1.0%。二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅 与上月相同。三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 同比方面，国家统计局数据显示， ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and new birth population scale, prioritizing domestic demand and reiterating policies like interest rate cuts [1][5] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market is highlighted by the term "efforts" indicating a strong policy commitment, with strategies including controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [4][2] - The long-term goal for real estate is to shift towards a "new model" that includes quality housing construction, urban renewal, and a dual rental and purchase system [5] Group 2 - The conference advocates for a positive marriage and childbirth outlook to stabilize the birth population, with recent data showing a slight increase in marriage rates [6][7] - A dual approach of fiscal and monetary easing is proposed, with a focus on maintaining necessary deficits and ensuring liquidity, while also considering price stability as a key factor [8][9] - The emphasis on stimulating consumption is elevated to a primary task, with a clear shift towards "domestic demand-led" growth, indicating that consumption will be the main driver of economic growth [9][10] Group 3 - Major city clusters like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are designated for specific roles in innovation and economic development, highlighting their importance as economic and technological hubs [10][11] - The future competition among cities will focus on innovation and emerging industries rather than traditional infrastructure investments, with a call for coordinated development and regional collaboration [11]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference has outlined a clear roadmap for the real estate market in 2026, emphasizing the need to stabilize the market and manage risks associated with the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Stabilization Strategies - The primary task for the real estate market in 2026 is to stabilize it, which is framed within the context of risk management. This marks the fourth consecutive year that this focus has been highlighted, indicating a strong commitment to both risk prevention and market stability [3]. - The conference proposed three key strategies: controlling new construction, reducing inventory, and improving supply quality. This means that the government will moderate the pace of new developments, focus on selling existing properties, and encourage the construction of high-quality homes that meet consumer needs [3]. Group 2: Policy Bottom Lines - There are several critical bottom lines that must be maintained in 2026: - Housing prices must not experience a "cliff-like" drop, as the core goal is to stabilize the market and prevent panic-induced declines [5]. - Market transactions should not become "frozen," ensuring that there is basic liquidity in the market to avoid extreme scenarios of zero transactions in certain areas [5]. - Key real estate companies must not face a "domino effect" of defaults, as this could lead to a broader credit crisis within the industry [6]. Group 3: Financial Support and Local Policies - A comprehensive set of financial support measures is expected, including maintaining low down payment ratios and mortgage rates, with potential for further reductions. Additionally, reforms to the housing provident fund system are anticipated to broaden coverage and increase flexibility for users [8]. - Local governments are encouraged to implement targeted policies, such as acquiring existing properties for affordable housing, which can help reduce inventory while increasing the supply of affordable homes. Some regions are already offering home purchase subsidies, particularly for families with multiple children [8]. Group 4: Implications for Buyers and Investors - The overarching policy logic aims to balance housing demand and supply while preventing systemic risks. For first-time buyers or those looking to upgrade, the lowered barriers to entry and potential subsidies present a favorable environment for purchasing homes [11]. - For existing homeowners, especially those with multiple properties, it is crucial to recognize that the era of widespread price increases has ended, and market differentiation is expected to become more pronounced [11]. - High-leverage investors should remain cautious, as income instability could lead to significant repayment pressures [11]. Group 5: Future Market Dynamics - The 2026 real estate market will focus on "stability" and "differentiation," with a shift away from one-size-fits-all policies towards more localized strategies [12].

最后，有序推动"好房子"建设。"好房子"建设是今年出现的新生事物，它的积极意义在于推动了住房建设的品质提升，可以在一定程度上 起到稳定房地产投资规模的作用。同时，也需注意平衡兼顾推动"好房子"建设与存量房去库存，因此，对于推动"好房子"建设，还需强 调"有序"。 尹中立(国务院参事，中国社会科学院金融所研究员) 其次，房地产去库存的政策方向更加明确。关于房地产去库存，去年中央经济工作会议提出，合理控制新增房地产用地供应，盘活存量用 地和商办用房，推进处置存量商品房工作。对于如何处置存量商品房，今年中央经济工作会议十分明确：鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 障性住房等。 关于收购存量商品房，央行在2024年5月份出台了"保障性住房再贷款"政策工具，首批额度为3000亿元，利率为1.75%。未来，要进一步发 挥该项货币政策工具的作用，还需妥善解决好两方面的挑战。一是新房收储的定价问题，在土地价格下行背景下，目前已经建成的住房的 成本普遍高于市场价格。二是需要找到符合条件的操作平台。根据政策要求，由城市政府选定地方国有企业作为收购主体。该国有企业及 所属集团不得涉及地方政府隐性债务，不得是地方政府融资平台，同时应具备银 ...