证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 房地产 房地产 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 05 日 从"止跌纾困"到"稳定立制" ——行业点评报告 投资要点 事件：2026 政府工作报告点评 点评： 总目标从"止跌回稳"升级为"着力稳定" 在行业整体定调方面，我们认为 2025 年的表述"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌 回稳" 体现出当时遏制市场惯性下滑、阻断风险蔓延的急迫性。2026 年"着力 稳定房地产市场"，措辞略有变化。我们认为，这体现出当前房地产市场依旧需要 政策发力来实现企稳，因此我们认为 2026 年房地产政策还会进一步释放。 调控方法论上，逻辑从"单向松绑"深化为"系统性的供需管理" 2025 年政府工作报告提出 "因城施策调减限制性措施"，我们认为此类政策工具 主要是逆向调节，即取消或放松限制性政策，旨在释放刚性和改善性需求，属于 需求端的单点突破。2026 年表述演进为"因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给"， 这与 2025 年中央经济工作会议形成呼应。我们认为，"控增量"指向土地和新开 工的源头管理，"去库存"直面地产当前主要矛盾，"优供给"则着眼于未来结构。 我们认为，措辞的表述变化说明调控思路已从短 ...

2026.03. 05 本文字数：3588，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 "持续用力稳楼市""'保交房'任务全面完成"……3月5日，国务院总理李强在政府工作报告中回顾 2025年工作情况时，对房地产进行了如上总结。 业内认为，这概论出了2025年"稳楼市"的成效，各地通过降首付、降利率、公积金政策持续优化等 政策的持续叠加，推动市场预期扭转。民生银行首席经济学家温彬撰文指出，近几年来，在一系列政 策组合拳综合作用下，房地产市场风险化解已取得积极成效，市场正在进入L型筑底阶段。 以此为基，今年的政府工作报告在部署房地产领域工作时强调"着力稳定房地产市场"，以"因城施策 控增量、去库存、优供给"为总体指导方针进行部署，以盘活存量为主，"控增量"的同时实现去库 存；同时通过"优化保障性住房供给""有序推动安全舒适绿色智慧的'好房子'建设"等方式，来实 现"优供给"目标。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进表示，2026年政府工作报告对房地产工作的部署，标志着行业 政策重心从以"保交房、防风险"为核心的存量风险出清阶段，逐渐迈入以"好房子、新模式"为引领 的增量价值创造与结构优化阶段。政策组合拳在"稳" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent provincial-level local two sessions in 2026 emphasize the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development, indicating a shift towards sustainable growth models and long-term reforms in the industry [1]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Stability - Multiple provinces have highlighted the task of "stabilizing the real estate market" in their government work reports, with specific measures proposed to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve housing supply [5][6]. - Provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu are implementing city-specific strategies to manage housing demand and supply, including the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [5][6]. - Recent policy releases have led to a rebound in the real estate market, particularly in second-hand housing transactions in hot cities, although the overall market remains in an adjustment phase [5][6]. Group 2: Housing Provident Fund Reform - The reform of the housing provident fund system is frequently mentioned, with expectations for significant changes in 2026 [2][4]. - Key measures include increasing loan limits, optimizing loan recognition, and expanding the use of provident funds for various housing-related expenses [4]. - Analysts suggest that the main directions for reform will focus on removing restrictions, broadening usage, and enhancing efficiency [4]. Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - Urban renewal is a recurring theme in government reports, with a focus on high-quality projects such as the renovation of old neighborhoods and infrastructure improvements [7][8]. - Specific targets have been set for various provinces, including the renovation of old residential buildings and the installation of elevators in older structures [7]. - The central government has identified urban renewal as a strategic approach to enhance urban development, transitioning from rapid growth to quality improvement [8]. Group 4: Current Housing Sales Reform - The reform of current housing sales is anticipated, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities with significant inventory [9]. - The concept of "good housing" has been integrated into local government agendas, emphasizing a systematic approach to housing quality and community development [9]. - Future policy actions may include substantial support in land and financing to facilitate the development of quality housing [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the stability and high-quality development of the real estate sector is crucial for the economy, people's livelihoods, and urban futures, with a focus on long-term sustainable growth rather than short-term stimulus measures [1]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Stability - Multiple provinces have highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in their government work reports, with specific measures proposed to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve the quality of housing supply [5][6]. - The government aims to enhance the construction and collection of affordable housing and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial properties for affordable housing use [5]. - Analysts suggest that policies focusing on the acquisition of existing homes and the "old-for-new" housing exchange will be key areas of attention this year [6]. Group 2: Housing Provident Fund Reform - Several provinces, including Shandong, Hainan, and Qinghai, have mentioned the need to deepen reforms of the housing provident fund system, which is expected to play a significant role in the real estate market [3]. - The reforms are anticipated to include increasing loan limits, adjusting loan recognition criteria, and expanding the use of provident funds for various expenses [3]. - The central government has reiterated the importance of these reforms in recent meetings, indicating a strong push towards enhancing the effectiveness of the housing provident fund [3]. Group 3: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal has emerged as a frequent topic in government reports, with many regions committing to high-quality urban renewal initiatives, including the renovation of old neighborhoods and infrastructure [7][9]. - Specific targets have been set for the renovation of old buildings and the improvement of urban infrastructure, such as the renovation of 300 old neighborhoods and 3,500 kilometers of old pipelines in Liaoning province [8]. - The article notes that urban renewal is seen as a strategic approach to enhance urban quality and stimulate investment, with a focus on multi-modal innovation and participation from various stakeholders [9]. Group 4: Current Housing Sales Reform - The article discusses the potential for gradual reforms in the current housing sales system, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities with significant inventory [10]. - The concept of "good housing" has been frequently mentioned in government reports, indicating a systematic approach to housing quality improvement alongside community development [11]. - There is an expectation of substantial policy actions in support of "good housing" initiatives, including technical standards and support in land and financing policies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is still undergoing adjustments, but positive factors are accumulating, and expanding effective demand is a crucial task for stabilizing the market [1][2]. Policy Measures - The government has introduced a variety of policies to stabilize the real estate market, but the overall market remains in a state of adjustment. The main issue is insufficient effective demand, necessitating a focus on changing market expectations and improving residents' payment capabilities [2][3]. - Current policies cover various aspects such as market, taxation, credit, and land, with significant efforts made. However, it is uncertain if these policies have reached their maximum effectiveness [3][4]. Local Government Role - Local governments need to take responsibility and actively adjust policies based on local market conditions, as the real estate market varies significantly across regions [4][5]. - The "Five Limits" policy has been largely relaxed, with most cities lifting restrictions except for a few first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4][5]. Housing Fund System - The housing provident fund system should be reformed to better support low- and middle-income households, providing them with low-cost housing financing [7][8]. - There is potential for lowering both the housing provident fund loan rates and deposit rates, which could reduce housing costs for participants [8][9]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue adjusting and stabilizing in the coming years, with a key indicator being whether housing prices stop declining [10][11]. - The transition from the old development model characterized by high debt and turnover to a new model focused on sustainable and high-quality development will take time and may involve a painful adjustment period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent need for reform in China's housing provident fund system, which has over 10 trillion yuan in dormant funds, to better support housing needs, including rental and affordable housing, and to adapt to the changing housing market dynamics [1][12][18]. Historical Context - The housing provident fund system was established in the early 1990s to address urban housing shortages, with Shanghai being the first city to implement it in 1991 [4][5]. - Over the past 30 years, the system has played a crucial role in facilitating home purchases for urban workers through mandatory savings and low-interest loans [6][9]. Current Status - As of the end of 2024, there are over 1.76 billion contributors to the housing provident fund, representing approximately 12.5% of the national population [3][6]. - The total accumulated withdrawal amount from the housing provident fund has exceeded 21.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 67% of the total contributions [6]. Challenges - There is a significant amount of dormant funds, with the balance increasing from approximately 3.7 trillion yuan in 2014 to about 10.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a nearly 195% increase over ten years [8][9]. - The current regulations restrict the withdrawal and usage of funds, leading to a situation where funds are "stored but not used" [8][9]. Reform Directions - The central economic work conference in 2025 emphasized the need to deepen reforms in the housing provident fund system, marking the first such directive in a decade [12]. - Proposed reforms include expanding the coverage to flexible employment groups, adjusting withdrawal conditions, and creating a more unified national market to facilitate population mobility [10][12][13]. Policy Adjustments - Various local governments have begun optimizing housing provident fund policies, with over 280 related adjustments made in 2025, focusing on increasing loan limits and expanding the range of permissible uses for the funds [15][16]. - Specific examples include increased loan limits for families with multiple children and allowing withdrawals for home renovations and property management fees [16][17]. Key Issues to Address - The article highlights two critical issues: the need for cross-regional recognition and lending of provident funds, and the narrowing interest rate gap between provident fund loans and commercial loans, which may affect the attractiveness of the former [19][20]. - Solutions proposed include establishing a demand-driven fund allocation mechanism and ensuring that the provident fund remains a competitive financial tool in the housing market [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The reform of the housing provident fund system is gaining attention, with a focus on interest rate adjustments and the recovery of the real estate market as key factors influencing future developments [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The central economic work conference in December 2025 emphasized the need to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, leading to a reduction in policy interest rates and the interest rates for personal housing provident fund loans [1]. - As of January 1, 2026, the interest rate for the first housing provident fund loan was lowered to 2.6%, approaching historical lows, with the second loan rate at 3.075% [2]. - Local governments are rapidly implementing policies to optimize the provident fund system, including adjustments to withdrawal and loan policies, increasing loan limits, and expanding usage scenarios [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The reduction in housing provident fund loan rates is expected to lower the cost of home financing for residents, potentially stimulating demand [2]. - The average interest rate for newly issued commercial housing loans fell to 3.07% in September 2025, narrowing the gap with the first housing provident fund loan rate to just 47 basis points [4]. - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of commercial loan rates will be a critical variable in determining whether further reductions in provident fund loan rates are feasible [4][5]. Group 3: Banking Sector Implications - The reduction in provident fund loan rates may pressure banks' interest income as customers may prefer these lower-cost loans over commercial loans [5][6]. - However, customers utilizing provident fund loans typically have stable payment records, which can improve banks' asset quality [6]. - Banks are adapting by restructuring their mortgage business, using low-interest provident fund loans to attract customers while also promoting commercial loans to balance risk and return [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions around the reform of the housing provident fund system indicate a significant shift aimed at enhancing its effectiveness and expanding its usage, reflecting a broader commitment to improving housing accessibility for residents [1][2]. Group 1: Current Issues with the Provident Fund - The call for reform is driven by several issues, including the narrowing interest rate gap between commercial loans and provident fund loans [2]. - Some cities impose restrictions requiring the provident fund deposit location, home purchase location, and household registration to be the same, complicating cross-city home purchases [2]. - There are limitations on the conditions and amounts for converting commercial loans to provident fund loans [2]. Group 2: Future Directions for Reform - The reform will focus on expanding the usage of the provident fund beyond home purchases to include down payments, property fees, and renovations [3]. - There will be an emphasis on improving fund efficiency to ensure that more money is actively utilized rather than remaining idle in accounts [4]. - The reform aims to support inter-city recognition and lending, allowing the provident fund to follow individuals' work and life changes [5]. - More flexible employment individuals, such as freelancers and self-employed workers, will be encouraged to participate in the provident fund system [5]. - Increased support for affordable housing, urban renewal, and the renovation of old neighborhoods will be prioritized, enhancing urban livability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system to stabilize the real estate market and promote high-quality development in the sector [1] Group 1: Reform and Current Status - The housing provident fund system reform has been ongoing, with the number of pilot cities for flexible employment personnel expanding from 13 to 36 [1] - In 2025, 65,300 individuals withdrew 2.043 billion yuan from the housing provident fund for home renovations, indicating a shift towards improving living conditions [1] - The coverage of the provident fund is limited, currently only covering one-third of urban employees, which affects the expansion of inclusive finance [2] Group 2: Financial Dynamics - The balance of the national housing provident fund increased from 4.56 trillion yuan in 2016 to 10.9 trillion yuan in 2024, but the proportion of withdrawals for housing consumption has decreased from 82.2% in 2021 to 75.2% in 2024 [2] - There is a significant funding gap for housing consumption among over 200 million flexible workers, of whom less than 10% contribute to the provident fund [2] Group 3: Adaptation to New Housing Needs - The original provident fund system, established in 1994, was designed for a different economic context and is now seen as outdated as urbanization stabilizes and housing demand evolves [3] - The reform direction should shift towards a more inclusive housing finance model that addresses the needs of over 200 million new citizens, young people, and flexible workers [3] Group 4: Proposed Solutions - Implementing fiscal subsidies for non-public sector employees and flexible workers to encourage provident fund contributions [4] - Increasing investment returns by enhancing the management and investment strategies of the provident fund to boost its scale and attractiveness [4] - Utilizing the fund's returns to invest in areas with high demand for housing improvements, such as old neighborhoods and rental housing for new citizens [5] Group 5: Long-term Support Mechanisms - Establishing a continuous support mechanism for new citizens transitioning from renting to owning homes, potentially expanding the provident fund's role to include broader social welfare accounts [6] - Creating a mechanism for the compensated adjustment of surplus funds between regions with varying loan rates to optimize resource allocation [6] - Fostering a sustainable cycle of provident fund accumulation, investment, and withdrawal to enhance the overall housing finance system [6]

Core Insights - The recent discussions around the reform of the housing provident fund system indicate a significant shift in policy aimed at enhancing its effectiveness and accessibility for residents [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Background - The housing provident fund has been a crucial tool for adjusting real estate policies since its implementation in the 1990s, with a total balance expected to reach 10.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [1]. - The central economic work conference in December 2025 marked the first mention of "deepening the reform of the housing provident fund system" in nearly a decade, signaling a major overhaul rather than minor adjustments [1]. Group 2: Issues with Current System - Recent calls for reform stem from several issues, including the narrowing interest rate gap between commercial loans and provident fund loans, and restrictive local policies that hinder cross-city transactions [2]. - Some cities require that the provident fund deposit location, home purchase location, and household registration must be the same, complicating the process for individuals looking to buy homes in different cities [2]. Group 3: Future Directions of Reform - Future reforms are expected to expand the usage of the provident fund beyond home purchases to include down payments, property fees, and renovations [2]. - Enhancing fund efficiency is a priority, aiming to increase the flow of money rather than allowing it to remain idle in accounts [2]. - The reforms will support inter-city recognition and lending, allowing the provident fund to follow individuals' work and life changes [2]. - There will be an emphasis on including more flexible employment individuals, such as freelancers and self-employed workers, in the provident fund system [2]. - Increased support for affordable housing, urban renewal, and the renovation of old neighborhoods is also anticipated, aiming to improve living conditions [2].