2025.12.08-12.12 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 01 中线行情分析 目录 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量189万吨，表观消费量216万吨，主要钢厂库存142万 吨，社会库存548万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间。 2 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本周策略建议 相关数据情况 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore Futures [2] - Report Period: December 01 - 05, 2025 [1] 1. Rebar Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330 [7]. - Trend Logic: Weekly production is 2.12 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.33 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.56 million tons, and social inventory is 5.9 million tons [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7]. 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Implement a large - grid trading strategy as the contract is in a sideways consolidation range [11]. - Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises: Wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [12]. 1.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][21] 2. Iron Ore Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872 [31]. - Trend Logic: Last week, global shipment volume was 34.73 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 22.17 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 89.93 million tons, and major domestic ports' inventory was 150.52 million tons [31]. - Strategy Suggestion: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy during the consolidation stage [31]. 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The mid - term price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [34]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Implement a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [35]. 2.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [41]

Group 1 - The concept of "buying low and selling high" is rooted in the market principle of "mean reversion," where prices eventually return to their intrinsic value [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around the 3000-point mark until 2025, suggesting that buying opportunities may arise below this level [1] - Current market conditions indicate that the index has reached 4000 points, raising questions about future investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Different industries exhibit varying degrees of valuation and profitability, with the AI sector currently valued at 40 times earnings, while consumer sectors are valued below 10 times [2] - Valuation percentiles are crucial for assessing whether an industry is at a low point, allowing investors to compare current valuations with historical data [2] - Non-bank financials and metals industries show strong growth in profitability while maintaining valuation percentiles below 35% [5] Group 3 - The performance of specific ETFs, such as the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF, has exceeded 40% returns this year, indicating strong performance within its category [5] - The E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial ETF has also performed well, achieving nearly 8% positive returns this year, placing it among the "billion club" ETFs [5] Group 4 - Historical data shows that market downturns can last significantly long, with the longest drop lasting 754 days, indicating the need for patience in identifying market bottoms [6][7] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a grid trading strategy to manage investments during volatile market conditions, allowing for systematic buying and selling based on price fluctuations [6][8] - Setting thresholds for incremental buying during market declines can help investors capitalize on potential recoveries, with suggested thresholds ranging from 5% to 25% [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report title: "Rebar, Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report period: November 24 - 28, 2025 [1] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330 [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly rebar output is 2.08 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.3 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.53 million tons, and social inventory is 5.97 million tons [7] - Mid - term strategy: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: Implement a large - grid trading strategy as the main contract is in a sideways consolidation range [11] - Hedging advice for spot enterprises: Wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [12] 3. Related Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][21] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872 [31] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.516 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 2.268 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 9.001 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 15.054 million tons [31] - Mid - term strategy: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The mid - term price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [34] - This week's strategy: Implement a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [35] 3. Related Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [41][48][52]

Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which is based on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for markets with frequent price movements [3][11] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly suitable [3][11] Group 2: Analysis of ETF Grid Strategy Targets - Financial Technology ETF (159851.SZ) is driven by capital market reforms and technological innovations, with a reported revenue of 419.56 billion yuan and a net profit of 169.05 billion yuan for 42 listed brokerages in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a net profit growth of over 60% [3][12] - Military Industry Leader ETF (512710.SH) is expected to benefit from a new round of military procurement cycles, with China's defense budget for 2025 set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, although still below 1.3% of GDP [4][15] - Robotics ETF (159530.SZ) is positioned for explosive growth in 2025, supported by policies promoting intelligent robotics and significant investments in the sector, with over 200 investment events and total financing exceeding 24 billion yuan by July 2025 [5][6][17] Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to use grid trading strategies by selecting a combination of suitable ETFs with low correlation, such as pairing broad-based and sector-specific ETFs or combining A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to diversify risk and enhance capital utilization [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the mid - line market, trading strategies, and related data of rebar and iron ore futures. It uses the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model to make trend judgments and gives corresponding trading strategy suggestions [7][30]. 3. Summary according to the Directory Rebar Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The main contract of rebar futures operates in the sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. The weekly output of rebar is 2 million tons, the apparent consumption is 2.16 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.6 million tons, and the social inventory is 6.2 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation stage, with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and a grid number of 14 [7]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered the shock consolidation range. This week, according to the model, it enters the sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. Spot enterprises are advised to wait and see until a new mid - line trend becomes clear [10][11][12]. Related Data Situation No specific data content is summarized in the text other than the above - mentioned production, consumption, and inventory data. Iron Ore Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the range consolidation stage of 732 - 872. In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 30.69 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 27.41 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 90.76 million tons, and the inventory of domestic major ports was 151.29 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the shock consolidation stage [30]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in the shock consolidation stage. This week, the AI intelligent system suggests implementing a grid trading strategy, with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and a grid number of 14 [33][34]. Related Data Situation No specific data content is summarized in the text other than the above - mentioned supply - related data.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the effectiveness of grid trading strategies in volatile markets, allowing investors to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends [4][12]. - The report identifies suitable characteristics for grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [4][12]. Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading strategies, including the Military Industry ETF (512710.SH), which is expected to benefit from a new procurement cycle driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased defense budget [4][13]. - The Pharmaceutical ETF (512010.SH) is noted for its strong pipeline of innovative drugs, with China holding the second-largest number of drug development projects globally, and the potential for accelerated commercialization as domestic policies support innovation [5][16]. - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320.SH) is positioned to capture the benefits of China's industrial upgrade and technological development, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [6][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on the weekly analysis of rebar and iron ore futures, including mid - line trend analysis, trading strategies, and related data [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - line行情分析**: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. The weekly output is 2080000 tons, apparent consumption is 2180000 tons, major steel mill inventory is 1660000 tons, and social inventory is 6340000 tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation phase, with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7]. - **品种交易策略**: Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range. This week, it is recommended to implement a large - grid trading strategy. Spot enterprises are advised to wait and see until a new mid - line trend becomes clear [10][11][12]. - **相关数据情况**: The data sources for this report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [21]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - line行情分析**: The main contract of iron ore futures is in an interval consolidation stage of 732 - 872. Last week, the global shipment volume was 3218000 tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 3213000 tons, steel enterprise inventory was 9009000 tons, and domestic major port inventory was 14898000 tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the oscillatory consolidation stage [31]. - **品种交易策略**: Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage. This week, the AI intelligent system suggests implementing a grid trading strategy, with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [34][35]. - **相关数据情况**: The data sources for this report are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures. Some specific trading data of the iron ore 2601 contract are also provided, such as the price, trading volume, and position changes [41][51].

Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy, which is essentially a high buy low sell trading approach that capitalizes on price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being identified as appropriate for this strategy [4][12] Group 2 - The report highlights key ETFs for grid trading strategies, including the Military Industry Leader ETF (512710.SH), which is expected to benefit from a new round of military procurement driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected defense budget of CNY 1.81 trillion for 2025, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [4][13] - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320.SH) is noted for its potential to capture the benefits of China's industrial upgrade and technological development, tracking the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which includes leading companies in internet, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy sectors [5][16] - The Saudi ETF (159329.SZ) is recognized as a tool to capture long-term economic transformation opportunities under Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," which aims to diversify the economy away from oil dependency, with over 40% of its holdings in the financial sector and significant allocations in consumption and technology [6][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330, and the iron ore futures main contract is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872 [7][31]. - For both rebar and iron ore futures in the consolidation stage, grid trading strategies can be considered [7][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures operates in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330. Weekly production is 212000 tons, apparent consumption is 218000 tons, major steel mill inventory is 186000 tons, and social inventory is 658000 tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered, with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range. This week, it enters a sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. Spot enterprises are advised to wait and see until a new mid - line trend becomes clear [10][11][12]. - **Related Data Situation** - No specific data details are provided other than the above - mentioned production, consumption, and inventory data. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [7][26]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872. Last week, the global shipment volume was 33.36 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 25.16 million tons, steel enterprise inventory was 90.73 million tons, and domestic major port inventory was 144.26 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage. This week, the AI intelligent system suggests a grid trading strategy, with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [34][35]. - **Related Data Situation** - No specific data details other than the above - mentioned shipment, arrival, and inventory data. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [31][49].