Market Overview - The Japanese stock market opened lower and experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 900 points and falling below the 40,000 mark, resulting in a daily decline of more than 2% [1][2] - The Japanese yen also saw a sharp decline against the US dollar, while the 5-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 9 basis points to 0.99% [1] Banking Sector Impact - The banking sector faced a collective downturn, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank Index dropping over 4% [2] - Notable declines in individual bank stocks included Mizuho Financial Group down nearly 5%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Chiba Bank, and Fukuoka Financial down over 4%, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial down 3.90% [2] Economic and Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes since the rate was raised from 0.25% earlier this year [2] - The Bank of Japan revised its core CPI inflation forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, increasing the expected inflation rate from 2.2% to 2.7% for 2025, driven by rising food prices [3] - The Bank of Japan acknowledged the strong momentum of inflation and indicated a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy, including possible interest rate hikes [3][4] Future Rate Hike Expectations - A survey indicated that approximately 42% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October, an increase from 32% in a previous survey [4] - While no consensus exists for a rate hike in September, about 25% of respondents believe it could happen as early as next month, with 60% suggesting October as the earliest possibility [4] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Norinchukin Bank's CEO announced a cautious approach following a $12 billion loss in US Treasury investments, emphasizing the need to correct previous investment imbalances [5] - The bank plans to diversify its investment portfolio and reduce exposure to long-term Japanese government bonds, focusing on dynamic adjustments based on yield curves [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba believes the US-Japan trade agreement is a win-win deal, emphasizing that implementing the agreement is more challenging than reaching it [1]

美银策略部门上调了对日本股市的年终预测，认为关键的积极催化剂——美日贸易协议和国内财政扩张预期——已经到来。 据追风交易台消息，该机构近日将2025年底的东证指数（TOPIX）目标从2850点上调至3050点，日经225指数目标从40000点上调至43000点。截止发稿， 东证指数上涨0.37%至2919点，日经225指数微跌至40636点。 美银表示，此次上调基于以下几点：首先，美日贸易协议的达成显著降低了不确定性，尤其是对关税影响的担忧。其次，参议院选举后市场对政府扩大财 政支出的预期升温。最后，强劲的资金流入和大规模股票回购构成了有利的供需环境。美银同时将其估值模型中的预期市盈率（P/E）从之前的水平微调 至14.5倍。 美银认为，虽然短期内日本股市可能出现涨势放缓，但盈利预期见底与改善有望支撑年内"第二波"行情。与此同时，国内政局不确定性、美日5500亿美元 对美投资分歧、美方滞胀风险仍需警惕。 盈利见底，第二波行情可期 美银表示，当前日股的上涨模式是市盈率（P/E）的扩张速度超过了每股收益（EPS）的增长。这在历史上并不罕见。回顾2019年（美国贸易协议预期） 和2020年（疫情期间的财政货币刺激） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the discrepancies in understanding and details surrounding the recently announced US-Japan trade agreement, particularly regarding the $550 billion investment and profit distribution [1][2][3] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida stated that many details of the tariff agreement remain unclear, and there are no plans for a joint document regarding the agreement [1] - The $550 billion investment is interpreted differently by both parties, with the US claiming it will receive 90% of the profits, while Japan suggests that profit distribution will depend on contributions and risk [1][3] Group 2 - The investment commitment of $550 billion is said to involve equity, loans, and loan guarantees from Japanese government entities, not private sector investments [2] - There is skepticism in the financial community regarding whether the $550 billion investment will materialize, with some experts suggesting it is more of a target than a binding commitment [4] - The negotiations have been characterized by a lack of formal written agreements, leading to confusion and differing interpretations of the terms [4][5] Group 3 - The Japanese government is reportedly willing to provide a significantly lower amount than the $550 billion figure, with actual payments expected to be in the range of "several trillion yen" [5] - The US Treasury Secretary has indicated that compliance with the agreement will be monitored quarterly, with potential tariff increases if expectations are not met [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Japanese corporate investment decisions remains, as the ultimate investment will depend on the actions of private enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in the interpretation of the recently reached trade agreement between the US and Japan, particularly regarding profit sharing and risk responsibilities [1] Group 1: Profit Sharing Discrepancies - The US claims it will receive 90% of the profits from a $550 billion investment in strategic industries in the US, contingent on Japan's financial support [1] - Japan's Cabinet Office clarified that profit distribution will depend on the contributions and risks undertaken by each party, contradicting the US's assertion [1] Group 2: Agreement Status - Japanese officials emphasized that no written or legally binding agreement has been established regarding the investment and profit sharing [1] - The agreement was reportedly reached hastily during a brief 70-minute meeting between Japan's chief negotiator and US representatives [1] Group 3: Political Context - Concerns from the Trump administration about potential political instability in Japan, particularly regarding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have led to urgency in finalizing the agreement [1]

Core Points - The trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has been reached, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff and increasing rice exports to Japan [1][3] - The Japanese stock market reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 3.2% [1] - Japan made significant concessions in various sectors, particularly in agriculture and automotive [5][6] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff, which is lower than the previously anticipated 25% [3][4] - Japan agreed to increase rice imports from the U.S. by 75% and purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including corn and soybeans [5] - In the automotive sector, Japan will open its market to U.S. vehicles and assist in creating fair competition for U.S. car manufacturers [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The agreement is expected to have a short-term positive effect on the Japanese economy, as indicated by the market's optimistic response [6] - However, the 15% tariff remains higher than pre-Trump levels, which could pose long-term challenges for Japan's automotive industry [6] - Japan's direct investment in the U.S. is projected to reach a historical high of approximately $731 billion by 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of Japan's total foreign direct investment [6] Group 3: Political Implications - The agreement provides a much-needed victory for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, but its long-term political implications remain uncertain [7] - The concessions made in the agreement may lead to dissatisfaction among Japanese agricultural stakeholders [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan largely aligns with the assumptions made by the Bank of Japan in its previous quarterly report released on May 1 [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor, Shinichi Uchida, indicated that the trade agreement reflects the central bank's expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's economist Stefan Angrick suggests that the recently announced US-Japan trade agreement may face reevaluation if Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns following the ruling coalition's loss of majority in the Senate [1] Group 1 - The US-Japan trade agreement has gained attention, but more dramatic developments may occur in Japanese politics [1] - The ruling coalition in Japan recently lost its majority in the Senate, significantly impacting Prime Minister Abe [1] - Angrick believes that the Abe government intentionally delayed the signing of the trade agreement until after the elections [1] Group 2 - Abe previously framed the tariff crisis as a national emergency requiring bipartisan cooperation, which served as a justification for his continued leadership [1] - As the threat of tariffs diminishes, the rationale for Abe's leadership is becoming increasingly unstable [1] - If Abe resigns, his successor may reconsider the agreement, which has been criticized by the opposition as a "one-sided concession" [1]

道明证券：特朗普要求日本开放农产品市场可能进一步动摇日本脆弱的政治局势 金十数据7月23日讯，道明证券亚太区高级利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示，市场将美日达成贸易协议 视为意外利好，原因有二：其一，自民党失去参议院多数席位后，外界原本预期贸易谈判将推迟；其 二，15%的关税水平低于特朗普4月及本月早些时候威胁征收的24%-25%。但该协议的一个潜在隐患在 于特朗普要求日本向美国农产品开放市场。这一要求可能在落实过程中面临重大政治阻力，并进一步动 摇日本本已脆弱的政治局势。 ...