Key Points - The article discusses the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of July 2, 2025, highlighting the number of companies at various stages of dividend declaration and implementation [1][3][9] - It provides a comparison of dividend yields across different industries, noting that coal, banking, and steel sectors have the highest yields [4] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices are presented, with the Shanghai 50 Index having a realized yield of 1.28% and a remaining yield of 0.99% [7][18] - The article tracks the premium/discount situation of stock index futures, indicating annualized discounts for various contracts, with the IC contract showing a discount of 10.65% [1][8][12] Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of July 2, 2025, the dividend status for the Shanghai 50 Index includes 0 companies in the proposal stage, 18 in the decision stage, 2 in the implementation stage, 27 that have paid dividends, and 3 that will not pay dividends [1][3] - For the CSI 300 Index, there are 2 companies in the proposal stage, 102 in the decision stage, 16 in the implementation stage, 154 that have paid dividends, and 26 that will not pay dividends [1][3] - The CSI 500 Index has 2 companies in the proposal stage, 98 in the decision stage, 26 in the implementation stage, 297 that have paid dividends, and 77 that will not pay dividends [1][9] - The CSI 1000 Index shows 1 company in the proposal stage, 148 in the decision stage, 57 in the implementation stage, 584 that have paid dividends, and 210 that will not pay dividends [1][9] Industry Dividend Yield Comparison - The article presents statistics on the current dividend yields of stocks with disclosed dividend proposals, ranking coal, banking, and steel industries as the top three sectors [4] Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices as of July 2, 2025, are as follows: - Shanghai 50 Index: Realized yield of 1.28%, remaining yield of 0.99% [7] - CSI 300 Index: Realized yield of 1.07%, remaining yield of 0.87% [7] - CSI 500 Index: Realized yield of 0.95%, remaining yield of 0.35% [7] - CSI 1000 Index: Realized yield of 0.73%, remaining yield of 0.23% [7] Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount Tracking - The article tracks the annualized discounts for stock index futures as of July 2, 2025: - IH main contract: annualized discount of 0.28% [1] - IF main contract: annualized discount of 2.35% [1] - IC main contract: annualized discount of 10.65% [1] - IM main contract: annualized discount of 14.77% [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Index Dividend Points Estimation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates the dividend points of index constituents to account for the natural decline in index levels caused by dividend ex-dates, which is critical for accurately calculating the basis and premium/discount levels of stock index futures[12][40][43] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Formula**: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Constituent Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Constituent Stock}} \times \text{Constituent Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ - \(N\): Number of constituent stocks - Dividend amount, total market value, and weight are calculated for each constituent stock[40] 2. **Steps**: - Identify constituent stocks and their weights - For stocks with announced dividend amounts and ex-dates, use the provided data - For stocks without announced data, estimate dividend amounts using historical net profit and payout ratios, and predict ex-dates using historical patterns[41][46][50] - Adjust weights dynamically based on daily price changes using the formula: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{i})} $$ - \(w_{n0}\): Initial weight of stock \(n\) - \(r_{n}\): Non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) since the last weight update[44][45] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates high accuracy for indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, with prediction errors generally within 5 points. However, the error for the CSI 500 index is slightly larger, around 10 points[56][60] Model Backtesting Results - **Index Dividend Points Estimation Model**: - SSE 50 Index: Prediction error ~5 points[60] - CSI 300 Index: Prediction error ~5 points[60] - CSI 500 Index: Prediction error ~10 points[60] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Net Profit Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict net profit dynamically based on historical profit distribution patterns to estimate dividend amounts for constituent stocks[46][49] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Classify companies into "stable" and "unstable" profit distribution categories based on historical data 2. For stable companies, use historical profit distribution patterns for prediction 3. For unstable companies, use the previous year's profit as the prediction value[49][51] **Factor Evaluation**: The dynamic prediction method effectively captures profit trends for most companies, providing a reliable basis for dividend estimation[49] - **Factor Name**: Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Use historical payout ratios to estimate the current year's payout ratio for companies without announced data[50] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. If the company paid dividends last year, use last year's payout ratio 2. If no dividends were paid last year, use the average payout ratio of the past three years 3. If the company has never paid dividends, assume no dividends for the current year 4. Cap the payout ratio at 100% if it exceeds this threshold[52] **Factor Evaluation**: Historical payout ratios provide a stable and effective basis for prediction, especially for companies with consistent dividend policies[50][52] - **Factor Name**: Ex-Dividend Date Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict ex-dividend dates using historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates, with adjustments for outliers[50][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. If the ex-dividend date is announced, use the provided date 2. If not announced, estimate based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates 3. Apply default dates (e.g., July 31, August 31, or September 30) if historical data is insufficient or inconsistent[55] **Factor Evaluation**: The method captures the majority of ex-dividend dates accurately, with over 90% of companies completing dividends by the end of July[55] Factor Backtesting Results - **Net Profit Prediction Factor**: High accuracy for stable companies; less reliable for companies with volatile profit distributions[49] - **Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction Factor**: Effective for companies with consistent payout policies; less applicable for companies with irregular dividend histories[50][52] - **Ex-Dividend Date Prediction Factor**: Accurately predicts dates for over 90% of companies, with most dividends completed by July[55]

Key Points - The article discusses the dividend progress of constituent stocks in various indices as of June 25, 2025, highlighting the number of companies at different stages of dividend declaration and implementation [1][4][27] - It provides a comparison of dividend yields across different industries, noting that coal, banking, and steel sectors have the highest yields [2][3] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices are presented, with the Shanghai 50 Index having a realized yield of 0.81% and a remaining yield of 1.45% [11][10] - The article tracks the premium and discount of stock index futures, indicating that the IH main contract has an annualized premium of 7.56% while the IC main contract has an annualized discount of 3.62% [1][22] Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of June 25, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index has 9 companies in the proposal stage, 13 in the decision stage, 5 in the implementation stage, 20 that have paid dividends, and 3 that have not [1][4] - The CSI 300 Index has 44 companies in the proposal stage, 77 in the decision stage, 30 in the implementation stage, 123 that have paid dividends, and 26 that have not [1][4] - The CSI 500 Index has 37 companies in the proposal stage, 89 in the decision stage, 39 in the implementation stage, 258 that have paid dividends, and 77 that have not [1][4] - The CSI 1000 Index has 40 companies in the proposal stage, 159 in the decision stage, 54 in the implementation stage, 529 that have paid dividends, and 218 that have not [1][4] Industry Dividend Yield Comparison - The article provides statistics on the dividend yields of stocks that have disclosed dividend proposals, with coal, banking, and steel industries ranking the highest [2][3] Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - The realized dividend yields as of June 25, 2025, are as follows: - Shanghai 50 Index: 0.81% realized, 1.45% remaining [11] - CSI 300 Index: 0.79% realized, 1.14% remaining [11] - CSI 500 Index: 0.86% realized, 0.47% remaining [11] - CSI 1000 Index: 0.71% realized, 0.32% remaining [11] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Tracking - The article tracks the annualized premium and discount of stock index futures as of June 25, 2025: - IH main contract: 7.56% premium [1][22] - IF main contract: 2.64% premium [1][22] - IC main contract: 3.62% discount [1][22] - IM main contract: 6.77% discount [1][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The IC2507 has a discount of 59.43 points, and the IM2507 has a discount of 77.02 points, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - In terms of the market trend, IM > IC > IF > IH (main contracts). IM, IC, and IF are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign, while IH is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish outlook [3][4]. - For treasury bond futures, the uncertainty of the Israel - Iran situation, consecutive declines in the Hong Kong and A - share small - cap indexes, and a decrease in market hotspots are bearish factors. The margin trading balance increased by 1.4 billion yuan to 1.8167 trillion yuan, which is neutral. The discounts of IH2507 and IF2507 are also neutral [5]. - The main positions of IH and IC show a reduction in long positions, while IF shows an increase in long positions, overall presenting a bullish tendency. Due to concerns about US intervention, increased uncertainty in the Israel - Iran situation, limited positive effects from the Lujiazui Forum, a rebound in crude oil prices, and global stock market adjustments, the domestic index faces increased upward pressure and is expected to undergo a weak adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Index Futures Quotes**: The report provides detailed quotes of various index futures including IH, IF, IC, and IM, such as contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining maturities [7]. - **Index Futures Basis and Spreads**: It presents the historical basis and spreads of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 index futures, helping to analyze the price relationships between different contracts [9][12]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, etc., are shown, reflecting the overall performance of the spot market [15][16]. - **Style Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of style indexes including cyclical, non - cyclical, low - P/E, large - cap, small - cap, etc., are provided, which can be used to analyze the performance of different market styles [18][19][21]. - **Sector Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of various sector indexes in the Shenwan classification are presented, such as agriculture, basic chemicals, steel, etc., helping to understand the performance of different industries [22]. 3.3 Market Structure - **AH Share Premium**: The historical data of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, which is useful for analyzing the price differences between A - shares and H - shares [24][25][26]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical P/E and P/B ratios of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented, which can be used to evaluate the valuation levels of different indexes [27][29]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: The historical data of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 index are shown, reflecting the fund flow situation in the stock market [31][32]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical data of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are provided, which can be used to analyze the leverage situation in the market [33][34]. - **Northbound Capital Inflows**: The historical data of northbound capital net inflows are presented, showing the flow of foreign funds into the A - share market [35][36]. - **Fund Costs**: The historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are provided, reflecting the short - term fund costs in the market [41][42]. 3.5 Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical turnover rates of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented, which can be used to analyze the trading activity in the market [44][47][49]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: The historical data of public - offering hybrid fund positions are provided, which can reflect the market sentiment of institutional investors [50]. 3.6 Other Market Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Bond Yield**: The historical data of index futures dividend yields and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are presented, which can be used to compare the investment returns of different assets [53][54]. - **Exchange Rate**: The historical data of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan exchange rate are provided, which can be used to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the market [55][56]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The relationship between new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index is tracked, which can reflect the participation enthusiasm of retail investors [57]. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: The changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, which can reflect the fund - raising situation in the market [59][61][63].

Group 1 - As of June 18, 2025, the dividend progress of component stocks in major indices shows that in the SSE 50 Index, 11 companies are in the proposal stage, 16 in the decision stage, 6 in the implementation stage, 14 have distributed dividends, and 3 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 300 Index, 65 companies are in the proposal stage, 87 in the decision stage, 23 in the implementation stage, 99 have distributed dividends, and 26 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 500 Index, 55 companies are in the proposal stage, 107 in the decision stage, 46 in the implementation stage, 215 have distributed dividends, and 77 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 1000 Index, 59 companies are in the proposal stage, 195 in the decision stage, 81 in the implementation stage, 447 have distributed dividends, and 218 do not distribute dividends [1] Group 2 - The current dividend yield statistics show that the coal, banking, and steel industries rank the highest in terms of dividend yield among disclosed dividend proposals [4] - As of June 18, 2025, the realized dividend yields for major indices are as follows: SSE 50 Index at 0.43% with a remaining yield of 1.90%, CSI 300 Index at 0.61% with a remaining yield of 1.37%, CSI 500 Index at 0.74% with a remaining yield of 0.61%, and CSI 1000 Index at 0.60% with a remaining yield of 0.45% [6] Group 3 - The annualized premium and discount for major stock index futures as of June 18, 2025, are as follows: IH main contract at a premium of 0.28%, IF main contract at a discount of 2.78%, IC main contract at a discount of 11.22%, and IM main contract at a discount of 16.42% [1][3] - The tracking of stock index futures' premium and discount levels will consider the impact of component stock dividends on the index point drop [2] Group 4 - The methodology for estimating dividend points in indices is crucial for accurately assessing the premium and discount of stock index futures, as it accounts for the natural drop in index points due to dividends [27] - The report outlines a detailed process for estimating dividend amounts based on net profit and dividend payout ratios, ensuring accurate predictions for future dividends [34][39]

股指分红点位监控周报 6 月合约即将到期，IH 升水，IC 及 IM 均深贴水 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 成分股分红进度 截至 2025 年 6 月 18 日： 上证 50 指数中，有 11 家公司处于预案阶段，16 家公司处于决案阶段，6 家公司进入实施阶段，14 家公司已分红，3 家公司不分红； 沪深 300 指数中，有 65 家公司处于预案阶段，87 家公司处于决案阶段，23 家公司进入实施阶段，99 家公司已分红，26 家公司不分红； 中证 500 指数中，有 55 家公司处于预案阶段，107 家公司处于决案阶段， 46 家公司进入实施阶段，215 家公司已分红，77 家公司不分红； 中证 1000 指数中，有 59 家公司处于预案阶段，195 家公司处于决案阶段， 81 家公司进入实施阶段，447 家公司已分红，218 家公司不分红。 行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，煤炭、银行和 钢铁行业的股息率排名前三。 已实现及剩余股息率 截至 2025 年 6 月 18 日： 上证 50 指数已实现股息率为 0.43%，剩余股息率 1.90%； 沪深 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Futures Morning Report - June 12, 2025" - Report Author: Dushufang from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - Date of Report: June 12, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic index is in an oscillating upward trend, but the upward pressure has increased. It is recommended to reduce holdings on significant intraday rallies and add positions on significant declines, and avoid intraday chasing [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Index Futures Basis and Spread**: - For the Shanghai Composite 50 index futures, the IH2506 contract had a basis of -9.74 points, with an annualized basis of -14.73%. The basis and spread of other contracts showed different degrees of deviation [5]. - For the CSI 300 index futures, the IF2506 contract had a basis of -15.83 points, with an annualized basis of -16.55% [5]. - For the CSI 500 index futures, the IC2506 contract had a basis of -31.75 points, with an annualized basis of -22.35% [5]. - For the CSI 1000 index futures, the IM2506 contract had a basis of -42.51 points, with an annualized basis of -28.06% [5]. - **Analysis of Index Futures Trends**: - The IM, IC, and IF were above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal, while the IH was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [3]. - The basis of IH2506 and IF2506 was neutral, while the basis of IC2506 and IM2506 indicated a bearish bias [3]. - The long positions of the IH and IC main contracts decreased, while the long positions of the IF main contract increased, showing a bullish signal overall [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Daily Returns of Major Indexes**: Different major indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, etc., showed varying degrees of daily returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above the 3400 mark [3][14]. - **Daily Returns of Style Indexes**: Style indexes such as the 300 - Cycle, 300 - Non - Cycle, and Low - P/E Index also showed different daily returns [17][20]. 3.3 Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index showed a certain trend over time [23]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trends of the PE and PB of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were presented [26][28]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: The A - share market showed different levels of net fund inflows over time [30]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance showed a certain trend in relation to the CSI 300 [32]. - **Northbound Capital Flows**: The net inflows of the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect showed fluctuations [34]. - **Fund Costs**: The SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates showed changes over time [40]. 3.5 Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market capitalization) showed different trends [43][46]. - **Positions of Public - Offering Hybrid Funds**: The positions of public - offering hybrid funds showed a certain trend [48]. 3.6 Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Bond Yield**: The dividend yields of index futures and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond were presented [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan showed a certain trend [54]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The relationship between new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index was tracked [55]. - **New Fund Establishment Scale**: The changes in the new establishment scales of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds were presented [57][59][61].

Key Points - The article discusses the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of June 10, 2025, highlighting the stages of dividend announcements and distributions across various indices [1][4]. - It provides a comparison of dividend yields across different industries, noting that coal, banking, and steel sectors have the highest yields [2][3]. - The article also presents the realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices, indicating the current financial performance and future expectations [6][7]. - It tracks the premium and discount of stock index futures, emphasizing the importance of considering dividend impacts on futures pricing [2][12]. Group 1: Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of June 10, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has 14 companies in the proposal stage, 19 in the decision stage, 3 in the implementation stage, 9 that have paid dividends, and 4 that have not [1][4]. - The CSI 300 Index has 81 companies in the proposal stage, 92 in the decision stage, 34 in the implementation stage, 65 that have paid dividends, and 27 that have not [1][4]. - The CSI 500 Index has 68 companies in the proposal stage, 146 in the decision stage, 57 in the implementation stage, 139 that have paid dividends, and 90 that have not [1][4]. - The CSI 1000 Index has 81 companies in the proposal stage, 269 in the decision stage, 93 in the implementation stage, 338 that have paid dividends, and 219 that have not [1][4]. Group 2: Dividend Yield Comparison - The article provides statistics on the dividend yields of stocks that have disclosed dividend proposals, with coal, banking, and steel industries ranking the highest [2][3]. Group 3: Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - As of June 10, 2025, the realized dividend yield for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is 0.33%, with a remaining yield of 2.03% [7]. - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 0.39%, with a remaining yield of 1.60% [7]. - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 500 Index is 0.48%, with a remaining yield of 0.86% [7]. - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 1000 Index is 0.45%, with a remaining yield of 0.59% [7]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Tracking - As of June 10, 2025, the annualized discount for the IH main contract is 2.11%, for the IF main contract is 6.35%, for the IC main contract is 13.84%, and for the IM main contract is 22.25% [1][12]. - The article emphasizes the need to account for dividend impacts when calculating the premium and discount of stock index futures [2][12].

一 、成分股分红进度 截至2025年5月27日： 上证50指数中，有26家公司处于预案阶段，11家公司处于决案阶段，1家公司进入 实施阶段，7家公司已分红，4家公司不分红； 沪深300指数中，有127家公司处于预案阶段，91家公司处于决案阶段，12家公司 进入实施阶段，42家公司已分红，27家公司不分红； 中证500指数中，有104家公司处于预案阶段，192家公司处于决案阶段，52家公 司进入实施阶段，61家公司已分红，91家公司不分红； 中证1000指数中，有139家公司处于预案阶段，378家公司处于决案阶段，111家 公司进入实施阶段，147家公司已分红，224家公司不分红。 二、行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，煤炭、银行和钢铁行业的股 息率排名前三。 三、已实现及剩余股息率 截至2025年5月27日： 上证50指数已实现股息率为0.17%，剩余股息率2.18%； 沪深300指数已实现股息率为0.28%，剩余股息率1.73%； 中证500指数已实现股息率为0.23%，剩余股息率1.14%； 中证1000指数已实现股息率为0.23%，剩余股息率0.82%。 四、股 ...

一 、成分股分红进度 截至2025年5月20日： 上证50指数中，有33家公司处于预案阶段，6家公司处于决案阶段，2家公司进入 实施阶段，4家公司已分红，4家公司不分红； 沪深300指数中，有170家公司处于预案阶段，60家公司处于决案阶段，14家公司 进入实施阶段，28家公司已分红，27家公司不分红； 中证500指数中，有187家公司处于预案阶段，159家公司处于决案阶段，34家公 司进入实施阶段，29家公司已分红，91家公司不分红； 中证1000指数中，有290家公司处于预案阶段，326家公司处于决案阶段，77家公 司进入实施阶段，82家公司已分红，224家公司不分红。 二、行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，煤炭、银行和钢铁行业的股 息率排名前三。 三、已实现及剩余股息率 截至2025年5月20日： 上证50指数已实现股息率为0.12%，剩余股息率2.22%； 沪深300指数已实现股息率为0.23%，剩余股息率1.76%； 中证500指数已实现股息率为0.08%，剩余股息率1.26%； 中证1000指数已实现股息率为0.13%，剩余股息率0.90%。 四、股指期货 ...