- The report introduces a quantitative model for estimating dividend points in stock indices, which is crucial for accurately assessing the premium or discount in stock index futures contracts. The model incorporates factors such as component stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices[38][44][46] - The model calculates the dividend points for a stock index during the period from the current date (t) to the futures contract expiration date (T) using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Stock n}}{\text{Total Market Cap of Stock n}} \times \text{Weight of Stock n} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ This formula ensures that only stocks with ex-dividend dates between t and T are included[38][44] - Component stock weights are dynamically adjusted using the formula: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{i})} $$ Here, \( w_{n0} \) represents the weight of stock \( n \) at the last disclosed date, and \( r_{n} \) is the non-adjusted return of stock \( n \) between the last disclosed date and the current date[45] - The model estimates net profit for stocks without disclosed data by categorizing companies into stable and unstable profit distribution groups. Stable companies are predicted based on historical patterns, while unstable ones use the previous year's profit as a proxy[47][50] - Dividend payout ratios are estimated using historical averages. If a company paid dividends in the previous year, that ratio is used; otherwise, a three-year average is applied. Companies with no dividend history are assumed not to pay dividends[51][53] - Ex-dividend dates are predicted using a linear extrapolation method based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates. Default dates are applied if historical data is insufficient or inconsistent[51][56] - The model's accuracy was validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual values for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 indices in 2023 and 2024. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 predictions showed errors within 5 points, while the CSI 500 had slightly larger errors, around 10 points[57][61][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - **Macro**: The US tariff exemption extension is entering its final week, and negotiations with countries like the EU, India, and Mexico are in a tense phase, with uncertainties regarding potential tariff counter - measures. Overseas is in a week of intensive macro - events, including the Fed's interest - rate meeting and key economic data releases. China will hold a Politburo meeting, and attention should be paid to economic work guidance and PMI data to confirm economic recovery. The real estate sales remain at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and has declined due to summer heat, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, posing potential downward pressure on the Q3 economy. However, anti - involution policies are expected to gradually reverse deflation [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose but marginally tightening. Bond market redemptions are flowing into the stock market, providing incremental funds. Overseas financial conditions have improved, with a decline in the real interest rate of US bonds, leading to foreign capital inflows into the domestic stock market. Passive ETF shares are being re - increased, equity financing such as IPOs has cooled, margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, and the pressure of restricted - share unlocks has increased, overall favoring liquidity [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral - to - high level. The stock - bond yield spreads at home and abroad have further declined, making the attractiveness of allocation funds average [4]. - **Strategy**: The current valuations of broad - based indices are not cheap, and the foreign - capital risk premium index has dropped to a low level. The pressure of US tariff policies may resurface. Considering that the stock market has prematurely priced in macro - expectations, the market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then correct in the next 1 - 2 weeks when positive factors are realized or fall short of expectations. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices after sharp rallies this week or use out - of - the - money put options to protect against black - swan risks. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Stock Indices**: In the past week, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the gains, while the German stock market led the losses. The week - on - week changes of major indices are as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, among others [8][9]. - **Sectors**: Coal led the gains, and banks led the losses. Coal > Steel > Non - ferrous metals > Building materials... > Electric power and public utilities > Communications > Comprehensive finance > Banks [12]. - **Futures**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.21%, 0.09%, - 0.39%, and - 0.31% respectively, with IH reaching par and the discounts of IC and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (current and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.3%, - 0.25%, - 0.19%, and - 0.25% respectively, and the inter - period discounts of the four major futures began to widen. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.21%, - 0.61%, - 1.32%, and - 1.81% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major futures widening significantly [19]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 39.65 billion yuan, reaching a total of 1.94 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained unchanged at 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.17358 trillion yuan, an increase of 74.43 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 198.619 billion shares, with a net subscription of 290 million shares from the previous week [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In July, the cumulative equity financing was 45.49 billion yuan, with 6 cases. Among them, IPO financing was 20.92 billion yuan, private placement was 24.58 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.79 billion yuan. The market value of stock market unlocks last week was 86.84 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.38 billion yuan from the previous week [26]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse - repurchase matured at 1.7268 trillion yuan, with a reverse - repurchase injection of 1.6563 trillion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 400 billion yuan in July and matured at 300 billion yuan, with continuous monthly net injections for 5 months. Overall, the liquidity supply was neutral but marginally tightening [28]. - **Fund Prices**: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 14.5bp, 6.4bp, and 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.65%, 1.55%, and 1.52%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 2.1bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks rebounded by 4.1bp to 1.67%. The fund supply tightened marginally, debt financing demand declined, but the real - economy financing demand recovered, and the fund prices generally rebounded slightly [34]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bonds changed by 6.7bp, 6bp, and 5.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 8.9bp, 9.5bp, and 6.6bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to steepen, and the credit spreads between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened at both the long and short ends, indicating a return of broad - credit expectations [38]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 25, the US 10 - year Treasury yield changed by - 4.0bp to 4.40%, the inflation expectation changed by 3.0bp to 2.44%, and the real interest rate changed by - 7.00bp to 1.96%. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 10.79bp to - 266.61bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.19% [41]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 24, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.531 million square meters, showing a seasonal improvement from the previous week's 1.372 million square meters but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real estate market sales generally returned to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting will propose signals to boost the real estate market [44]. - **Service Industry Activities**: As of July 25, the daily average subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities dropped significantly to 81.84 million person - times, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last year but a 21.8% increase from 2021. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week, indicating that the service industry's economic activities were cooling down [48]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Due to the anti - involution policy, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry declined. The capacity utilization rates of steel mills, asphalt, cement clinker enterprises, and coking enterprises changed by - 0.08%, - 4%, - 0.26%, and 0.44% respectively. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 0.01% from the previous week. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand trends of the manufacturing industry improved marginally, and it has entered the seasonal peak season [52]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods and people flow remained at a relatively high level. The postal express and civil aviation sectors showed a significant weekly decline, while railway transportation rebounded slightly, which may be related to the rush - to - export. There is a risk of a second seasonal decline from August to September [56]. - **Exports**: As the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is nearing its end, the port cargo throughput and container throughput have increased significantly. There is a risk of a second decline from August to September when the 90 - day tariff exemption period ends [61]. - **Overseas**: With the US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in July falling back into the contraction range and the US durable goods orders data dropping more than expected, the financial market has revised its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. The market expects 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, with a reduction of 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a September rate cut has increased to 61.9% [63]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.07%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week, at the 58.5% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.99%, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week, at the 21.2% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 81.1%, 76.8%, 87.3%, and 71.4% quantiles of the past 5 years respectively, and their relative valuation levels were not low [66][71]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal laws, the stock market is in a period of seasonal shock - driven growth and structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There are opportunities to go long on IC and IM on pullbacks and short on IF and IH on sharp rallies [74]. - **Financial Calendar**: China will release July's manufacturing and service industry PMI and industrial enterprise profits, which will help confirm economic recovery. Overseas, attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll report, job vacancies, manufacturing PMI, PCE inflation data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [76].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 01 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场继续冲高，Wind 全 A 上涨 0.89%，成交额 1.22 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 1.26%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.88%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.37%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.16%。国防军工板块领涨，TMT 板块走强。美联储主席 | | | | 近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同时点阵图也 | | | | 显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前计价降息， | | | | 纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 A 股估值目 | | | | 前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概念近期火爆， | | | | 稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新型储备货币， | | | 股指 | 对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市场缺乏热点 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 股指期货早报- 2025年6月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 早评 期指 IC2507贴水59.43点，IM2507贴水77.02点，偏空 4、盘面：IM>IC>IF> IH（主力），IM、IC、IF在20日均线上方，偏多 IH在20日均线下方，偏空 期债 1、基本面：受到以伊局势不确定性，港股和A股小微盘指数连续下跌，市场热点减少；偏空 2、资金：融资余额18167亿元，增加14亿元；中性 3、基差：IH2507贴水45.32点，IF2507贴水44.69点，中性 股指期货升贴水表 期货市场-上证50基差与价差 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2021/11/10 2021/12/16 2022/1/24 2022/3/7 2022/4/1 ...

一 、成分股分红进度 截至2025年6月18日： 上证50指数中，有11家公司处于预案阶段，16家公司处于决案阶段，6家公司进入 实施阶段，14家公司已分红，3家公司不分红； 沪深300指数中，有65家公司处于预案阶段，87家公司处于决案阶段，23家公司 进入实施阶段，99家公司已分红，26家公司不分红； 中证500指数中，有55家公司处于预案阶段，107家公司处于决案阶段，46家公司 进入实施阶段，215家公司已分红，77家公司不分红； 中证1000指数中，有59家公司处于预案阶段，195家公司处于决案阶段，81家公 司进入实施阶段，447家公司已分红，218家公司不分红。 二、行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，煤炭、银行和钢铁行业的股 息率排名前三。 三、已实现及剩余股息率 截至2025年6月18日： 上证50指数已实现股息率为0.43%，剩余股息率1.90%； 沪深300指数已实现股息率为0.61%，剩余股息率1.37%； 中证500指数已实现股息率为0.74%，剩余股息率0.61%； 中证1000指数已实现股息率为0.60%，剩余股息率0.45%。 四、股指期 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 股指期货早报- 2025年6月12日 早评 期指 IC2506贴水31.75点，IM2506贴水42.51点，偏空 4、盘面：IM>IC>IF> IH（主力），IM、IC、IF在20日均线上方，偏多 IH在20日均线下方，偏空 1、基本面：地缘风险不确定性原油大涨，昨日两市缩量上涨，沪指站上3400关口，港股相对更加强 势，市场热点轮动；偏多 2、资金：融资余额18047亿元，增加9亿元；中性 3、基差：IH2506贴水9.74点，IF2506贴水15.83点，中性 5、主力持仓： IH主力多减，IF 主力多增，IC 主力多减，偏多 6、预期：中美已同意一个贸易框架将各自汇报领导人，国内指数仍处于震荡上行趋势，不过上方压 力有所增加，目前位置大幅上 ...