【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：有色承压 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 4 日 【行情分析】 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜低开高走，日内偏弱。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-140 元/吨，华南现货升贴水-115 元/吨。2026 年 3 月 3 日，LME 官方价 12864 美元/吨，现货升贴水-44 美元/吨。 沪铜今日低开高走，日内偏弱。美国总统特朗普当地时间周二宣布，白宫将为穿越 霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供海军护航和政治风险保险，而伊朗称完全控制霍尔木兹海峡。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比减少 3.69 万吨，降幅为 3.13%，同比上升 7.96%，比预期值 低 0.11 万吨。预计 3 月产量环比增长 5.28 万吨，同比上升 6.51%，由于 1 月份检修企 业多在 3 月复产，且新投产冶炼厂有增产，预计 3 月份产量可能创历史新高。由于铜精 矿方面趋于短缺，故国内对于废铜需求量预计有增多，而国内政策扰动废铜产业链，随 着需求量的增长，废铜供给缺口预计靠海外进口弥补。铜价连续上行，下游终端高价抵 触情绪严重，铜材端对需求的弱化，目前行业淡季叠加高铜价，预计下游铜材表现继续 承压为主。综合来看 ...

Company Overview - The closing price of Aojing Medical (688613.SH) on February 12, 2026, was 23.98 yuan, with a daily decline of 3.54% and a trading volume of 1.10 billion yuan, indicating a turnover rate of 3.31% [1] - As of February 12, the company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was -910.15 times, and the price-to-book ratio was 2.29 times. The revenue forecast for 2025 is 224 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.53 million yuan, although the non-recurring net profit is expected to be a loss of 510,000 yuan [3] Industry Analysis - The medical device sector has seen a cumulative decline of 5.39% over the past 20 days, reflecting overall weak performance. Concerns regarding the continuity of medical procurement policies and increased risk aversion ahead of the long holiday have put pressure on small and medium-sized pharmaceutical stocks [4] Market Activity - On February 10, the stock price surged by 5.13% to 25.41 yuan, reaching a new high for the period. The subsequent decline on February 12 is viewed as a technical correction following a significant short-term increase [5] - The financing activity showed a recent trend of increased activity followed by a decline, with a net buy of 9.29 million yuan on February 10, but a net outflow of 7.63 million yuan on February 11, leading to a financing balance of 227 million yuan on February 12. The net outflow of main funds on February 12 indicates a profit-taking pressure from retail investors, who accounted for 38% of the inflow [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major contracts hitting their daily limits and other varieties also declining [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, major contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and alloy have seen substantial declines, with copper futures down 9.01% and aluminum futures down 9.01% [2]. - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but has since decreased, although it remains elevated compared to previous days [2]. Price Trends and Influences - The night trading session continued the downward trend, with international copper futures down 1.11% and domestic copper futures down 1.01% [3]. - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which has negatively impacted non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Year-to-date, absolute inventories of copper, aluminum, and nickel are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating weak price support from supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Global copper inventories exceed 1.3 million tons, putting upward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventories have reached 1 million tons, reflecting weaker supply-demand structures compared to previous years [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent rapid increases in copper prices have led to a cooling of bullish sentiment, with the market potentially shifting towards fundamental trading [5]. - Seasonal demand suppression and inventory accumulation are expected to pressure prices leading up to the Chinese New Year, with a potential rebound in March if downstream recovery exceeds expectations [5][6].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is facing a potential "shutdown" risk, which has increased safe-haven demand for gold and silver [1] - Gold and silver experienced significant volatility, with gold dropping below $5,100 and rising to around $5,598, while silver fell from a high of $121 to below $110 [1] - As of the latest update, gold has risen above $5,400 and silver is around $118 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate voted on a government funding bill, which failed to pass due to insufficient votes, increasing the likelihood of a partial government shutdown by the end of the month [1] - The Senate requires 60 votes for the funding bill to pass, with the current composition being 53 Republican seats and 45 Democratic seats, plus 2 independent senators aligned with the Democrats [1] - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer indicated that including funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the bill would lead to opposition from Democrats due to recent enforcement actions [1] Group 3 - President Trump stated that the U.S. has achieved record economic growth, but a prolonged government shutdown could hinder progress [2] - The stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.11%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down 0.72% [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.35% [2]

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" and focus on key areas to "strengthen" support, with a special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan for private investment[2] - A 500 billion yuan guarantee plan for private investment aims to guide banks in providing loans to small and micro enterprises[2] - The implementation of interest subsidies for loans in 14 key industrial chains is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.97%, with total trading volume at 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones down by 2.39%, 2.06%, and 1.76% respectively[3] - The 10-year government bond yield in China decreased by 1.66 basis points to 1.8260%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] - Gold prices rose above $4,762 per ounce, and silver prices peaked at $95 per ounce amid increased global risk aversion[2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors led gains with increases of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55% respectively[3] - The telecommunications, defense, and computer sectors saw declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94% respectively[3]

Group 1: Market Overview - LME aluminum prices showed weakness today, with three-month contracts reported at $3162 per ton, down $27.5 per ton or 0.86% from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic futures for Shanghai aluminum saw a significant decline, with the main contract for month 2603 opening at 24610 CNY per ton, reaching a high of 24780 CNY and a low of 24065 CNY, ultimately closing at 24375 CNY, down 370 CNY or 1.50% [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 10827 contracts to 766880 contracts, while open interest fell by 21774 contracts to 346831 contracts [1] Group 2: Current Demand and Supply Dynamics - The current aluminum production remains stable, with smelting profits rising to historical highs due to increased electrolytic aluminum prices, averaging 16290 CNY per ton in December, with average profits at 5643 CNY per ton [3] - Demand in the downstream aluminum sector is weak due to the off-season, leading to continuous accumulation of social inventories and an expansion of domestic spot discounts, which suppresses aluminum prices [3] - Traders are adjusting their selling prices downward to secure cash, while downstream buyers are increasing purchases opportunistically to replenish stocks ahead of year-end production orders [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3% year-on-year in November, exceeding expectations, while retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, indicating stable economic growth in Q4 [2] - Speculative sentiment has cooled, contributing to the decline in Shanghai aluminum prices, alongside a depreciating RMB and a general downturn in domestic stock indices, which has heightened market risk aversion [2] - Overall, the combination of rising risk aversion and insufficient fundamental support for aluminum prices suggests that short-term prices may remain in a high volatility range, while medium to long-term outlook remains positive [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment last week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.13% to close at 3,968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.25% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened the year positively, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 4%, indicating a positive signal from foreign capital towards emerging markets [1] Industry Performance - Most sectors in the Wande primary industry index declined last week, with Communication Services (+2.13%) and Energy (+1.54%) leading the gains, benefiting from policy expectations and stabilization in commodity prices. Conversely, Utilities (-2.64%) and Healthcare (-1.99%) faced pressure, likely due to risk-averse sentiment and weak consumption [1][9] Fund Issuance - A total of 33 funds were issued last week, including 21 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, and 2 FOFs, with a total issuance of 11.916 billion units [1][17] Fund Performance - The Wande All-Fund Index decreased by 0.31% last week. The Wande Ordinary Equity Fund Index fell by 0.76%, and the Wande Mixed Equity Fund Index declined by 0.63%. The Wande Bond Fund Index saw a minor decrease of 0.06% [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing mixed trends, with rubber prices showing minor declines while maintaining a stable oscillation pattern. The supply side pressure has eased due to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, impacting production levels [3][9]. Supply Side - The rubber output in Thailand has been affected by floods in the southern region, leading to a decrease in production compared to previous years. As per QinRex data, Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. However, exports to China during the same period increased by 14%, totaling 945,000 tons [3][9]. - The production in Southeast Asia's main rubber-producing regions is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, suggesting that localized production declines will have a limited impact on overall annual output [3][9]. Inventory - According to Steel Union data, the inventory of dry rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons for the week ending December 26, up from 515,200 tons the previous week. The social inventory data has not been updated, but it is anticipated that the overall inventory remains in an accumulation phase, indicating greater inventory pressure than in previous periods [10]. Demand Side - The operating rates for downstream steel tires were reported at 61.95% for full steel tires and 72.05% for semi-steel tires for the week ending December 25. The full steel tire operating rate has decreased compared to the previous week, while the semi-steel tire rate has seen a slight increase. Both rates are below those of the same period last year, indicating stable demand without significant changes [10]. Market Outlook - The recent market performance is characterized by a strong tendency, driven by easing supply-side pressures and macroeconomic support from crude oil prices. However, there is significant inventory pressure as the market enters an accumulation phase, compounded by heightened risk aversion as the holiday season approaches. It is recommended to reduce positions in rubber and 20 rubber before the holiday [4][10].

Group 1: Silver and Gold Market Reaction - On December 17, silver prices surged over 3%, reaching a peak of over $66, while gold prices also increased by more than 0.5% [1] - The London silver market reported a closing price of $65.729, with an opening increase of $2.010, representing a 3.16% rise [2] Group 2: U.S. Trade Relations and Technology Cooperation - The U.S. has threatened to retaliate against the EU if it continues to undermine American service providers, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [3] - The U.S. has suspended the implementation of a technology cooperation agreement with the UK due to dissatisfaction with British policies on food, industrial standards, and digital regulation [3] - The U.S. hopes to resume cooperation with the UK on key technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing once substantial progress is made in bilateral trade negotiations [4]

Report Overall Information - Report Title: Macro Financial Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Zheng Yuting from the Macro Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Futures Practicing License Number: F3074875; Investment Consulting License Number: Z0017779 [4] Market Conditions Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.31% with a -0.01bp change; DR007 at 1.44% with a 0.40bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.01% with a 1.50bp change; GC007 at 1.44% with a -2.50bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55% with a 0.10bp change; LPR 5-year remained at 3.50% [4] - 1-year treasury bond closed at 1.37% with a 0.23bp change; 5-year at 1.60% with a -2.52bp change [4] - 10-year treasury bond closed at 1.81% with a -1.69bp change; 10-year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 5.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91-day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4365, down 2.12%; the SSE 50 at 2910, down 1.71%; the CSI 500 at 6698.4, down 2.48%; the CSI 1000 at 7206.9, down 1.46% [6] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 2.5443 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Industry sectors mostly declined, with consumer sectors such as department stores, beauty care, food and beverages, and tourism hotels leading the gains, while semiconductor, communication equipment, electronic chemicals, small metals, aerospace, and electronic components sectors leading the losses [6] - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased across the board, with IF volume up 9.4%, IH volume up 17.8%, IC volume up 16.8%, and IM volume up 13.3% [6] Core Views - Recently, the risk aversion sentiment of funds has risen, and some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to the adjustment of stock indexes [6] - Domestically, the marginal changes are limited recently, and the incremental policies are in a relative vacuum state. The latest August China Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.4%, indicating that the economy still has certain resilience [6] - Overseas, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased [6] - Strategically, the short-term adjustment of stock indexes may bring opportunities for long positions [6] Futures Basis Information - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values and annualized rates noted [6]