Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US inflation data is expected to be a key catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with the market currently holding a neutral view on the pound [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The market anticipates that the GBP/USD exchange rate will continue to fluctuate within a range, with investor focus shifting towards the upcoming UK autumn budget and its potential policy signals [1] - A potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in December is expected to occur earlier than the market's general consensus, which could significantly weaken the pound's interest rate advantage [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has stabilized above the support level of 1.3400 and has broken through short-term moving average resistance [1] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, indicating increased bullish momentum; if the exchange rate effectively breaks through the 1.3570 level, it may further test resistance levels at 1.3620 and 1.3680 [1] - Initial support levels to watch for a potential pullback are at 1.3500 and subsequently at 1.3440, with an overall trend leaning towards a strong consolidation [1]

Group 1 - The UK businesses are experiencing the fastest rate of layoffs in four years, with a layoff rate of 0.5% as of August, marking the largest decline since 2021 [1] - Companies expect only a 0.2% increase in employee numbers over the next year, which is lower than previous expectations [1] - The Labour Party's measures to improve public finances are putting significant pressure on employment, as businesses face a £26 billion (approximately $35 billion) increase in payroll taxes and a substantial rise in minimum wage [1] Group 2 - Nearly half of the businesses are laying off employees to cope with rising national insurance costs, second only to profit declines [2] - The Bank of England's Governor, Andrew Bailey, indicated that the state of the labor market is crucial for future interest rate decisions, expressing concerns over weak labor demand despite high inflation levels [2] - The inflation expectations for the next year have risen to 3.3%, the highest level in 17 months, while long-term expectations for the next three years have increased to 2.9% for the first time since January [2] Group 3 - Companies plan to raise their product prices by 3.7% over the next 12 months, consistent with the findings from July's survey [5] - Expected wage growth remains steady at 3.6% for the third consecutive month, which is a key factor in price setting [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs research indicates that the speed and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England may exceed market expectations due to signs of declining inflation [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The Bank of England lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% last week, surprising the market with the voting results from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for another rate cut in November, a pause in December, and three consecutive cuts in early 2026 [1] - The expected terminal rate is projected to be 3%, lower than the market's expectation of 3.5% [1] Inflation Forecast - Despite a rise in core inflation to 3.7% in June, Goldman Sachs expects inflation to decline over the next year [2] - Weakening labor market indicators suggest that the current economic performance is below potential levels, contributing to the inflation outlook [4] - Private sector wage growth has decreased from 5.9% in January to 4.8% in June, with expectations of further decline to 3.5% by year-end [5] - Overall inflation is expected to peak at 3.8% in September and significantly decrease in the first half of 2026 [5] Economic Growth Projections - The UK economy showed a significant slowdown in Q2, with growth rates dropping to 0.3% and household spending growth at only 0.1% [6] - Economic growth is projected to remain weak, with forecasts of 0.3% in Q3 and 0.2% in Q4 [6] - The government has a buffer of £9.9 billion (approximately $13.3 billion) for fiscal policy, but this may diminish due to the cancellation of social spending cuts and potential downward revisions of growth forecasts [6] - Large-scale tax increases are anticipated in the autumn budget to comply with fiscal rules, which may negatively impact economic growth [6] - Overall, the UK economy is expected to grow by 1.1% by 2026, with a potential further weakening of the labor market and reduced inflation pressure [6]

Core Insights - The UK labor market is experiencing a cooling trend due to increased employment taxes, uncertain trade prospects, and cautious consumer attitudes, although the decline in employment is less severe than in previous months [1][2] - The number of employees in the UK decreased by 8,000 in July, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, but this is the smallest drop since January and better than the expected reduction of 20,000 [2] - Wage growth remains strong, with basic wages increasing by 5.0% year-on-year for the three months ending in June, although private sector wage growth has slightly decreased [1][2] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7%, consistent with the previous period and the highest level since July 2021 [1] - The total number of employees has decreased by 165,000 since the increase in corporate taxes and minimum wage in April, indicating significant pressure on labor-intensive sectors like retail and hospitality [2] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to adopt a cautious approach in balancing inflation and economic growth, with concerns about potential price pressures from wage growth [1] - RSM UK suggests that the stabilization of the labor market reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the near term, with a lower probability of a rate cut in November [2]

Group 1: XAU/USD Gold Analysis - The article indicates that gold experienced high volatility last Friday, with a daily range of 325 points, and is currently stabilizing around the H4 trendline support near 3367 [1] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 3367 and 3408 respectively, with a strategy to buy on dips in the 3367-3363 range [3] - The H1 trendline has shifted from red to yellow, suggesting a potential for short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Euro/Dollar Analysis - The article notes that the euro was in a consolidation phase last Friday, with a daily range of approximately 50 points, and highlights the stability of European inflation at 2.0% [6] - Key support and resistance levels are set at 1.159 and 1.174 respectively, with a strategy to buy on dips in the 1.162-1.163 range [7] - The H1 trendline has also shifted from red to yellow, indicating potential for short-term trading based on the M5 model [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Pound/Dollar Analysis - The article mentions that the pound was in a consolidation phase last Friday, with a daily range of about 41 points, and discusses concerns over prolonged inflation impacting the Bank of England's rate decisions [10] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 1.339 and 1.353 respectively, with a strategy to buy on dips in the 1.341-1.342 range [11] - The H1 trendline remains red, suggesting a cautious approach while looking for breakout signals [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Pound/Yen Analysis - The article highlights that GBP/JPY experienced significant upward movement last Friday, with a daily range of 144 points, and is currently in a high-level consolidation phase [14] - Key support and resistance levels are set at 198.0 and 199.5 respectively, with strategies for both short and long positions based on market movements [17] - The H1 trendline remains red, indicating a focus on support and resistance transitions for trading decisions [18]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is likely to persist due to a weak labor market, with disappointing non-farm employment data reinforcing market predictions for a rate cut in September [1] - Continuous low non-farm employment numbers below 50,000 for six months could signal an economic recession, leading to increased market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will cut rates in December instead of September, influenced by anticipated weak economic activity in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence and reliability of official economic data have intensified following President Trump's claims of data manipulation and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director [3][4] - The Korea Export-Import Bank forecasts a decline in South Korea's export value in Q3 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, projecting exports to reach approximately $167 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [3] - Analysts from Danske Bank expect the Bank of England to announce a rate cut in the upcoming decision, which may exert downward pressure on the British pound [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Reuters survey indicates that the Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter until the end of 2025, reaching 3.75%, consistent with the findings from the June survey [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Interest Rate Projections - The Bank of England is projected to reduce interest rates to 3.75% by the end of 2025, with a quarterly decrease of 25 basis points [1] - This forecast aligns with previous expectations from a June survey, indicating stability in market predictions regarding monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates to 3.75% by the end of the year due to signs of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the UK has risen to 4.7% in the three months ending in May [1] - Investec Economics forecasts that the Bank of England may implement two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate down to 3.75% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The economists at Investec predict that the interest rate will further decrease to 3.00% by the end of 2026 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs currently anticipates that the Bank of England will begin a series of interest rate cuts starting in November 2025, ultimately reaching a terminal rate of 3% by March 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expected timeline for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England is from November 2025 to March 2026 [1] - The projected terminal interest rate is set at 3% [1]