Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank economists suggest that the Bank of England should remain cautious regarding the pace of interest rate cuts despite signs of a loosening labor market in the UK [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a decline in job vacancies, an increase in the unemployment rate, and a slowdown in wage growth in the UK [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise slowly, which may allow the Bank of England to proceed with interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The Bank of England is advised to adopt a gradual and cautious approach to any potential interest rate reductions [1] - Current conditions do not warrant a faster pace of interest rate cuts according to Deutsche Bank's analysis [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the UK labor market is showing signs of cooling, but the pace may be slower than the Bank of England's expectations [1][2] - The annual salary growth rate, excluding bonuses, was reported at 5.0% for the three months ending in May, slightly above expectations [1] - The initial estimate of a 109,000 decrease in employment for May was significantly revised down to a reduction of 25,000, indicating a less severe job loss than initially thought [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England had previously predicted a salary growth rate of 5.2% for the three months ending in June, which has now been reported at 4.9% [2] - Employers are anticipating a reduction in hiring due to increased minimum wage, higher employer social security contributions, and tightening employment regulations [2] - The dual factors of reduced job vacancies and increased job seekers are key reasons for the Bank of England's expectation of a gradual pace of interest rate cuts despite inflation being above target [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK employment data indicates a rising unemployment rate, which keeps the Bank of England on a path towards potential interest rate cuts despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The unemployment rate has continued to rise, reaching its highest level since 2021, with the three-month ILO unemployment rate slightly above expectations [1] - June employment data is expected to show further weakness, even though May's data was revised upwards [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - Real wages are projected to continue declining, with the total wage growth rate for three months in May at 1.0% and regular wage growth at 1.1%, marking the lowest levels since mid-2023 [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of England may find some comfort in the easing price pressures, which could influence their decision-making regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The higher-than-expected inflation rate in the UK may lead the Bank of England to adopt a more cautious approach regarding future interest rate cuts, despite the possibility of a rate cut in August [1] Inflation Data Summary - The annual CPI inflation rate in June rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in May, indicating persistent cost pressures [1] - This inflation rate deviates from the Bank of England's target of 2%, suggesting that basic prices remain too firm [1] Economic Context - Global trade disruptions and rising business costs could lead to further temporary price increases during the summer [1] - However, economic downturn and a weak labor market indicate that inflation rates are likely to decline in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight increase in UK inflation in June, the Bank of England may still lower interest rates in August due to a weakening labor market and expectations of inflation decreasing by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - UK inflation has shown a minor uptick, but the overall trend indicates a decline from the highs seen between 2021 and 2023 [1] - The labor market is softening, characterized by slowing wage growth and a reduction in job vacancies, which influences the Bank of England's decision-making [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is that inflation will start to recede by the end of 2025, providing a rationale for potential interest rate cuts [1] - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain a cautious approach in its monetary policy despite the recent inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has strengthened due to higher-than-expected inflation in the UK, but the increase is expected to be limited in the future [1] Inflation Data - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate rose from 3.4% in May to 3.6% in June, surpassing expectations of remaining flat [1] - This inflation rate is significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Michael Field from Morningstar attributes the rise in the pound primarily to changes in the UK's energy price cap [1] - Field suggests that the factors driving the pound's increase are likely to dissipate over the coming months, which could allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate for June exceeded expectations, leading to a reduced likelihood of an interest rate cut in August, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data**: The June CPI data showed a core inflation rate of 3.7%, surpassing the highest market forecast of 3.6% [1] - **Market Expectations**: Prior to the data release, the market was pricing in a 53 basis point cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year [1] - **Future Rate Cuts**: While the possibility of a rate cut in August appears limited, there remains potential for two rate cuts in the subsequent three meetings after August [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy showed signs of stagnation or mild recession, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, below the expected growth of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of contraction [2] - Industrial output fell by 0.9% in May, significantly below the expected flat performance, while manufacturing output decreased by 1%, indicating increased economic downward pressure [2] - Market expectations for the Bank of England to accelerate interest rate cuts have risen, with speculation of multiple cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - Silver prices have been trading within a clear upward channel since early April, fluctuating between $35.50 and $37.00 over the past four weeks [3] - The psychological resistance level at $37.00 remains unbroken, with $37.30 being a key upward barrier [3] - If silver prices break above $37.00, it may confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the $38.00-$38.50 range, while initial support is at $36.22 [3]

金十数据7月11日讯，荷兰国际银行分析师James Smith警告说，英国央行可能不得不考虑加快降息步 伐。此前，英国经济5月份意外连续第二个月出现萎缩。虽然从0.1%的收缩就断定英国经济正在衰退是 错误的，但最近的就业市场数据显示，英国正承受着严重的压力。James Smith表示，英国央行自去年 以来一直坚持非常缓慢的降息步伐，但其目前对劳动力市场的看法可能过于乐观。风险显然倾向于在年 底前更频繁地降息。 荷兰国际银行：英国央行可能需要更快降息以支撑疲软经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest UK monthly GDP data is weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August [1] Economic Data Summary - The UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, indicating economic weakness [1] - Weakness in the services and manufacturing sectors contributed to this contraction, highlighting the fragility of the post-inflation recovery [1] Central Bank Implications - The Bank of England may interpret this data as a signal that the monetary environment is exerting pressure on the economy, potentially leading to a vote in favor of an interest rate cut in August [1]