果然财经 | 降10%！美对欧盟进口汽车及产品征收15%关税 当地时间9月24日，美国特朗普政府发布正式公告，实施美国与欧盟达成的贸易协议，确认自8月1日 起，对欧盟进口汽车及汽车产品征收15%的关税。此外，文件还列出了对某些药物化合物、飞机零部件 及其他进口商品的关税豁免。 果然财经 | 降10%！美对欧盟进口汽车及产品征收15%关税 大众报业·齐鲁壹点15分钟前 热门评论我要评论 微信扫码 移动端评论 暂无评论 鲁ICP备15022957号-13 鲁公网安备 37010202002220号 鲁新网备案号201000101 电信增值业务许可证： 鲁B2-20120085 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 版权所有(C) All Rights Reserved 联系电话：0531-82625462邮箱： 1790179766@qq.com ...

The Trump administration issued a formal notice on Wednesday implementing the U.S. trade agreement with the European Union, confirming that autos and auto imports will be subject to a 15% duty from Aug. 1, and listing exemptions for certain pharmaceutical compounds and aircraft parts, and other imports. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-24原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期多空分析 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线下方；中性 1.基本面：俄罗斯能源部副部长表示，如有必要，可能会进一步限制燃料出口，俄罗斯已将汽油出口 禁令延长至9月底，当局表示，如果汽油短缺问题持续存在，限制措施可能会延长至10月；伊拉克库尔 德斯坦恢复石油出口的协议陷入停滞，由于两家关键生产商要求债务偿还担保，伊拉克库尔德斯坦地 区至土耳其的输油管道石油出口仍未重启；偏多 2.基差：9月23日，阿曼原油现货价为68.61元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.48元/桶，基差35.01元/ 桶，现货升水 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7][8] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a looming question regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers, which power large language models like ChatGPT, consume energy equivalent to that of a small city, indicating a significant strain on global power grids [2] - The company in focus is positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI, making it a unique investment opportunity [3][6] Company Profile - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and benefiting from the onshoring trend due to tariffs [5][6] - It possesses critical nuclear energy infrastructure assets, making it integral to America's future power strategy [7] - The company is noted for its ability to execute large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, including oil, gas, and renewables [7] Financial Position - The company is completely debt-free and has a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened by debt [8] - It also holds a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing indirect exposure to multiple growth engines in the AI sector [9] Market Sentiment - There is a growing interest from hedge funds in this company, which is considered undervalued and off-the-radar, trading at less than 7 times earnings excluding cash and investments [10][9] - The company is recognized for delivering real cash flows and owning critical infrastructure, making it a compelling investment choice in the context of the AI and energy sectors [11][10]

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has become the sixth largest exporter to the U.S., with exports valued at $136.5 billion, primarily from factories operated by U.S. companies and foreign multinationals [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The imposition of a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods could lead to a long-term decline in exports to the U.S. by over $25 billion, nearly one-fifth of Vietnam's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. decreased by 2% in August compared to July, with a notable 5.5% drop in footwear exports, despite being the second-largest global supplier of shoes [2] - The World Bank has downgraded Vietnam's economic growth forecast following the implementation of U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2: Regional Comparisons - Vietnam's potential export decline to the U.S. is estimated at 19.2%, which is nearly double the average expected decline of 9.7% for Southeast Asia [3] - Other Southeast Asian countries are also expected to see declines, with Thailand at 12.7%, Malaysia at 10.4%, and Indonesia at 6.4% [3] Group 3: Economic Consequences - The decline in exports could result in a GDP reduction of approximately 5% for Vietnam [3] - The full impact of the tariffs may take years to manifest, but factors such as exporters absorbing some costs and Vietnam diversifying its export markets could mitigate the effects [3] Group 4: Additional Considerations - The estimates from the United Nations Development Programme assume that tariffs will be fully passed on to U.S. consumers, which has not yet occurred [5] - Potential additional tariffs on foreign components in exported goods could have devastating effects, as Vietnam's exports heavily rely on Chinese supply chains [6] - Current exemptions on tariffs for consumer electronics, which account for about 28% of Vietnam's exports to the U.S., are not included in the estimates, but even with these exemptions, exports could still decrease by $18 billion [6]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest in AI technologies now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is presented as a unique investment opportunity, positioned to benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI, owning critical energy infrastructure assets [3][6] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is crucial in supplying the energy needed for AI growth [3][7] Market Context - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and poised to benefit from the onshoring trend driven by tariffs [5][6] - It is noted that the company is debt-free and has significant cash reserves, equating to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms [8][10] Strategic Positioning - The company owns critical nuclear energy infrastructure, making it integral to America's future power strategy and capable of executing large-scale energy projects [7][8] - It has an equity stake in another AI-related company, providing indirect exposure to multiple growth engines in the AI sector [9][10] Future Outlook - The narrative emphasizes the potential for significant returns, suggesting that the company is undervalued and trading at less than seven times earnings, which is attractive for investors [10][11] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation, reinforcing the argument for investing in AI-related companies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of the U.S. tariff policy on Swiss exports, particularly noting a drastic decline in gold exports and overall trade figures between Switzerland and the U.S. [2][4] Group 1: Swiss Exports to the U.S. - In August, Swiss exports to the U.S. plummeted by 22% compared to July, with gold exports dropping from over 30 tons to only 0.3 tons, a decline exceeding 99% [2][4] - The trade deficit with the U.S. decreased to 2.06 billion Swiss francs (approximately 2.6 billion USD), the second-lowest level since 2020 [4] - The U.S. imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss products starting August 7, which has led to a significant reduction in exports of luxury watches by 8.6% and a 1.3% decrease in core pharmaceutical exports [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - UBS Group has revised its economic outlook for Switzerland, lowering the GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% to 0.9% due to concerns over tariff impacts [6] - Analysts estimate that the U.S. tariff measures could reduce the total output of the Swiss export-oriented economy by approximately 0.6% [7] - Switzerland is actively seeking to diversify its export dependencies and has signed a new free trade agreement with the Mercosur group [7] Group 3: Modern Automotive Industry Response - Hyundai Motor Company has adjusted its 2025 operating profit margin target down from 7%-8% to 6%-7% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [9] - The company plans to increase production capacity at its Georgia plant to 500,000 vehicles by 2028, focusing on hybrid and electric vehicles [9][10] - Hyundai's operations in the U.S. are facing challenges, including labor shortages due to the deportation of many Korean workers involved in the construction of a battery plant [10]

Group 1 - Vietnam is adopting a long-standing currency devaluation strategy to gain a competitive edge amid trade pressures from U.S. tariffs [1] - The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has steadily pushed for the devaluation of the Vietnamese dong, with the dollar to dong reference rate rising approximately 3.5% in 2025, marking the most significant annual increase since 2011 [1] - Vietnam's currency is nearing historical lows, and analysts expect further depreciation as the central bank maintains its devaluation policy [1] Group 2 - Vietnam is an export-driven economy, with exports accounting for about 90% of its GDP, and net exports to the U.S. representing one-fifth of its economy [1] - The World Bank has revised Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 6.8% to 6.6% due to concerns over slowing exports to the U.S. [2] - In August, Vietnam's exports grew by 14.5% year-on-year to $43.39 billion, falling short of the expected 15.5% increase [2]

Group 1 - The imposition of a 39% tariff by the U.S. on Swiss exports has significantly impacted Switzerland's trade, with exports to the U.S. dropping by 22% in August compared to July [1] - The trade deficit with the U.S. has decreased to 2.06 billion francs (approximately 2.6 billion USD), marking the second-lowest level since 2020 [1] - The U.S. tariff is notably higher than the average tariff rate of 15% imposed by developed countries [2] Group 2 - The Swiss government is actively negotiating to lower the tariff, with U.S. Commerce Secretary indicating a potential agreement could be reached, although details remain unspecified [2] - Agricultural issues are particularly sensitive in Switzerland, with domestic groups opposing increased imports of U.S. beef or poultry due to a strong belief in food security and self-sufficiency [2] - In August, exports of luxury watches from Switzerland fell by 8.6%, while core pharmaceutical exports, which are exempt from the tariff, decreased by 1.3% [3] Group 3 - The Swiss economy is expected to slow down significantly due to the aggressive U.S. tax policies, despite showing resilience so far [3] - Switzerland is seeking to diversify its export markets, exemplified by a new free trade agreement signed with the Mercosur group [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a reduction in import tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15%, effective from September 16, 2025, which follows a series of negotiations between the two countries [3]. Group 1: Trade Impact - Japan's exports to the U.S. have seen a continuous decline for three months from April to June, with the rate of decline increasing, attributed to the U.S. tariff policies [3]. - The reduction in tariffs is expected to positively impact Japanese automakers, as it may help stabilize or increase their export volumes to the U.S. market [3]. Group 2: Corporate Response - Honda's CFO, Eiji Fujimura, has urged the Japanese government to finalize and announce the details of the tariff policy promptly, indicating the importance of clarity for business planning [3].