芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 5/28 64.9 563 837 4880 6990 86.78 274.0 298 162 87.3 76.4 56248 180 0.65 2025/0 5/29 64.2 570 852 4950 6980 99.28 282.0 292 96 87.3 76.4 56248 200 0.65 2025/0 5/30 63.9 559 842 4945 6990 90.11 283.0 334 106 85.3 76.4 56044 220 0.35 2025/0 6/03 65.6 562 824 4915 6990 80.56 262.0 409 137 85.3 76.4 55840 200 0.35 2025/0 6/04 64.9 563 825 4865 6950 87.21 262.0 360 161 85.3 76.4 55840 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利空： 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-5） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价817，基差112；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价791，基差87，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14469.58万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 利多： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

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大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-3） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价820，基差118；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价795，基差93，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14469.58万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战缓和 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需 ...

周四凌晨美联储公布会议纪要，通胀和经济下行双重压力下，美国经济正面临衰退，另外贸易战方面早间美国法院叫停了特朗普"解放日"贸易政策，近期随 着贸易战的缓和，避险情绪回落。 昨日黄金市场最低至3276.76美元/盎司，最终收盘于3288.64美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场延续空头走势，最低至3261.27美元/盎司，目前交投于 3266.00美元/盎司附近。 若后市市场上破3288.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3298.00-3308.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间32.750-33.430，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破32.750美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为32.4-32.100美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破33.430美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及33.900-34.200美元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据自己的风险承受能 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价818，基差119；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价792，基差94，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14591.83万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-28） 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战缓和 1. 后期发货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-27） 利多： 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价826，基差119；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价800，基差94，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14591.83万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 铁矿石港口现货价格 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the trade - war relaxation, there was a positive feedback in the off - season from terminal trader restocking, supporting the styrene absolute price to fill the gap, but new orders have not been finalized yet [3]. - The upstream liquid hidden inventory in the industrial chain is gradually being depleted and transferred to downstream solid plastic particles. Attention should be paid to actual orders and the speed of downstream hidden inventory depletion [3]. - High styrene profits are gradually stimulating high supply. If the supply returns rapidly, it will turn the de - stocking balance sheet into a stock - building one in June [3]. - The port basis has strengthened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the paper - cargo delivery situation in the first half of next week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene - The pure benzene spot with neutral valuation, neutral inventory, and medium - high supply still needs time to stabilize [5]. - Pure benzene imports have exceeded expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products [15]. - The supply of hydrogenated benzene is limited [21]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Downstream - Different downstream products of pure benzene, such as caprolactam, adipic acid, phenol, aniline, etc., have different profit, production, and inventory situations. For example, caprolactam has certain production profit and output fluctuations, and adipic acid has its own production and capacity utilization trends [40][44][48]. 3.3 Styrene - Styrene currently has a pattern of neutral inventory, high profit, and medium output [52]. - The global spread of aromatics shows that the US - Asia logistics spread cannot be opened, and pure benzene remains in Asia [58]. - The internal spread of aromatics has returned [65]. 3.4 Second - Quarter Contradiction - There is a contradiction between the de - stocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [67]. 3.5 ABS - ABS has its own inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit situations. For example, the production enterprise's equity inventory, capacity utilization, and production profit in the East China region have shown different trends over time [69][71][76]. 3.6 PS - PS has factory inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit characteristics. For example, the factory inventory and production profit have changed in different periods [77][84]. 3.7 EPS - EPS has factory inventory, output, profit, and price characteristics. For example, the factory inventory, production profit, and ordinary - grade material ex - factory price have shown different trends [85][86][87].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that Tmall and Taobao platforms experienced negative growth in various categories in April 2025, with the highest growth seen in Jin Hong Group [7] - Deckers reported a 16.3% revenue increase to $4.986 billion for FY2025, with operating profit rising by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin increase of 2.3 percentage points to 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue decreased by 4% to $9.504 billion for FY2025, with a net loss of $190 million, although the loss narrowed compared to the previous year [16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Tmall and Taobao platforms saw negative growth across categories in April 2025, with Jin Hong Group showing the highest growth [7] - Deckers' FY2025 revenue grew by 16.3% to $4.986 billion, with operating profit increasing by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin of 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue fell by 4% to $9.504 billion, with a net loss of $190 million, but the loss was less than the previous year [16] - Amphenol's Q1 2025 revenue was $1.473 billion, with a net profit increase of 2539.22% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel industry saw a decline in stock performance, with the SW textile and apparel sector down 1.31% [20] - The cotton price index in China increased by 0.29% as of May 23, 2025, while the medium import cotton price index rose by 1.06% [30] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests short-term recommendations for companies with high U.S. revenue exposure and significant prior declines, while mid-term recommendations focus on companies with high overseas exposure [18][19] - Long-term recommendations include companies with growth potential, such as Zhejiang Natural and Kai Run Co., which have favorable market positions [19]

Report Overview - The report is a May 23, 2025, morning report on agricultural products by Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1][3] Soybeans/Meal Core Information - Thursday saw US soybeans oscillate and close slightly higher. The new US soybean balance sheet may trend tighter under scenarios of eased trade - wars and stable production. Argentina's local production damage and excessive rainfall in US soybean - growing areas this week may support prices, but favorable rainfall in sown areas limits gains. US soybean - growing areas may face more rainfall in the central part in the next two weeks, affecting sowing. Brazilian farmers have sold over 60% of their soybeans, and the USDA expects only small increases in Brazil and Argentina's new - crop production, while US soybean production may decline slightly by 700,000 tons [3] - According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The oil mill operating rate was 63.87% yesterday, with 340,900 tons in transactions [3] Trading Strategy - Near - term, the domestic soybean supply is relatively large, but the valuation is low. US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel policies and production changes. The cost range of far - month soybean meal like 09 is currently 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton [3][5] Oils and Fats Core Information - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%, with a 22.31% increase in the first 10 days, 8.5% in the first 15 days, and 3.72% in the first 20 days. The export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, but is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days and 1.55% - 5.25% in the first 20 days. As of the week of May 18, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 37.38% to 178,600 tons [7] - Malaysia's palm oil stocks increased significantly in April. However, palm oil has some support due to low stocks in Indonesia, India, and China. If the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly in the medium term, oil prices will face pressure. US biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations [8][10] Trading Strategy - Oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Negative factors include the downward - trending crude oil center, obvious palm oil production recovery, and potentially under - expected US biodiesel policies. Positive factors are the low stocks of palm oil in Indonesia and India and rapeseed in Canada, which provide some support to origin quotes [11] Sugar Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The closing price of the September contract was 5885 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions also declined slightly. As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 79 from 86 the previous week, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 3.1474 million tons from 3.5195 million tons [13] Trading Strategy - The international sugar market's tightest supply phase may have passed. In the domestic market, although the current production and sales are good, cheaper basis - priced sugar enters the market as the futures price drops. With the opening of the import profit window, future import supplies will increase, and sugar prices are likely to weaken [14] Cotton Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the September contract was 13430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 40 yuan/ton. Brazil's cotton exports in the first three weeks of May were 101,600 tons, with an average daily export volume 15.44% lower than in May last year. As of May 18, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, up from 28% the previous week [16] Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, boosting market confidence. Fundamentally, although the peak season has passed, the downstream operating rate increased slightly last week. The import window is basically closed, accelerating inventory depletion, and the 9 - 1 contract spread shows a positive arbitrage. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly and may fill the upper gap [17] Eggs Core Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in main production areas dropped 0.04 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and downstream procurement is cautious, with some inventory levels remaining high [18] Trading Strategy - With continuous increases in supply, small - sized eggs are significantly discounted compared to large - sized eggs. Market confidence is poor, inventory accumulates repeatedly, and spot prices are under pressure. Maintain the strategy of short - selling near - month contracts like 06 and 07 on rebounds and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts like 09 when positions are large [19] Pigs Core Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.24 yuan to 14.35 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.13 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg. Farms have high slaughter enthusiasm, but downstream follow - up is weak [20] Trading Strategy - Spot prices fluctuate within a narrow range and show signs of weakening. Although the weight is accumulating, considering low frozen - product and second - fattening pen occupancy, significant short - term declines are unlikely. Near - month contracts should focus on the basis regression method, while the medium - term strategy for far - month contracts is to short - sell on rebounds, but pay attention to the impact of spot prices and basis [21]