Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for June 2025 is reported at 110.8 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [1][3] - The index has shown a moderate recovery over the past two months, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market, supported by positive signals from US-China trade talks and enhanced domestic counter-cyclical policies [1][3] Commodity Price Index Summary - **Overall Index**: CBPI at 110.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month, down 5.2% year-on-year [1][3] - **Energy Price Index**: 97.3 points, up 1.0% month-on-month, down 12.9% year-on-year [3][7] - **Chemical Price Index**: 104.3 points, up 1.4% month-on-month, down 12.6% year-on-year [3][6] - **Black Metal Price Index**: 76.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.8% year-on-year [3][8] - **Non-Ferrous Metal Price Index**: 128.8 points, up 0.8% month-on-month, down 2.0% year-on-year [3][6] - **Mineral Price Index**: 73.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.9% year-on-year [3][8] - **Agricultural Product Price Index**: 98.1 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, up 2.2% year-on-year [3][7] Price Changes of Key Commodities - **Methanol**: Price increased by 7.8% month-on-month [4][6] - **Diesel**: Price increased by 5.4% month-on-month [4][7] - **Xylene**: Price increased by 5.0% month-on-month [4][6] - **Natural Rubber**: Price decreased by 6.9% month-on-month [6][7] - **Coke**: Price decreased by 10.5% month-on-month [5][7] Market Analysis - The chemical price index's rise is attributed to increasing international oil prices, which have pushed up the prices of chemical fibers and basic chemicals [6] - The non-ferrous metal price index's increase is linked to a weaker US dollar, which has positively impacted the prices of metals priced in dollars [6] - The energy price index's rebound is primarily due to rising international crude oil prices, which have strengthened the cost support for products like gasoline and diesel [7] - The black metal price index's decline is driven by falling costs of raw materials like coke and iron ore, coupled with insufficient downstream demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - The June PMI indicates a simultaneous expansion in supply and demand, along with a rebound in price indices, suggesting a positive marginal trend in the economy, supported by better-than-expected stock market performance [1][4]. Economic Indicators - In June, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same increase compared to the same period last year, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, although still below the critical line [2]. - The production index rose from 50.7 in May to 51 in June, reflecting strong manufacturing production intentions and accelerated production activities [3]. - The new orders index returned to the critical point, signaling a recovery in market demand, particularly towards the end of Q2, which is expected to positively impact growth in Q3 [3]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index both increased in June, indicating an improvement in manufacturing price levels, although a full recovery to expansion levels will take time [3]. Policy Outlook - As the market looks towards Q3, there is an increasing focus on incremental and reserve policies, particularly in fiscal policy, which is expected to maintain the issuance and utilization of long-term special government bonds and local government bonds to ensure adequate social financing [4]. - Fiscal spending is anticipated to expand earlier to avoid concentration in Q4, which would enhance the "multiplier effect" [4]. - The monetary policy is expected to continue its positive orientation, with potential room for lowering the reserve requirement ratio and considering the timely restart of government bond trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Index futures [1] - **Bearish Outlook**: PTA, PP, soda ash, methanol, polyolefins, rubber [1][2][10] - **Neutral with Upward Bias**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, polysilicon, iron ore [1][4][5][6][8][10] - **Neutral with Downward Bias**: Lithium carbonate, steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), coking coal, coke, glass [6][8] Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly recovered due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the A - share market sentiment has been boosted by events such as the parade and the Summer Davos Forum. With the improvement of liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to continue to move up [1]. - The high valuation of treasury bonds has an increasing drag effect, and the bond market is mainly affected by liquidity in the short term, with limited trend drivers [1]. - For precious metals, although the geopolitical risk premium has declined, long - term factors are still favorable for gold prices, and both gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels in July [4]. - In the base metals market, supply and demand are intertwined, and most metals are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound drive and space of lithium prices are limited [6]. - The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and the supply - demand pattern continues to be loose [6]. - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and the weakening of demand in the off - season, and the steel price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply situation, while the glass market has stronger support than soda ash, and short - term low - level oscillation is expected [8]. - The oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage after a short - term sharp decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The demand for methanol and polyolefins is weakening, and prices are under downward pressure [10]. - The cotton market has better fundamentals, and the cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. Summary by Variety Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points and the trading volume increasing to 1.45 trillion yuan. Non - banking finance and power equipment sectors led the rise. Global major stock indexes generally rose, and the stock index futures followed the spot index. With policy support and improved liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to rise [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds weakened across the board. The central bank's liquidity operations and high valuations are the main influencing factors. The overseas geopolitical risk has weakened, but uncertainties remain. The central bank has a strong intention to protect liquidity, but there may be a large liquidity gap in July [1]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical risk premium of gold and silver has significantly declined, but long - term factors are still favorable for gold. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver [4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillates in a range. The supply is tight, but the demand is greatly affected by the macro - environment. The market is waiting for the progress of tariff negotiations [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina has an oversupply situation, but the current valuation is low. The Shanghai aluminum has low inventory and supply constraints, which form support for the price [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market has not improved fundamentally, but the downward momentum is weak after the price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling options [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Due to the decline in cost support, it is advisable to enter new short positions in the PTA2509 contract [2]. - **PP**: As the demand enters the off - season, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the PP2509 contract [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the alkali plants are accumulating inventory passively. It is recommended to hold short positions in the soda ash 09 contract or the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. Energy and Minerals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and weak demand in the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to run in a narrow range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal has an oversupply situation, and the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market of coke is approaching the bottom, and the decline of the futures price may slow down [8]. Other Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound of the lithium price is restricted [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - **Crude Oil**: After a short - term sharp decline, the oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: The demand for methanol is weakening, and the price is expected to return below 2300 yuan for the 09 contract [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins is weakening, and the price may return to a weak state and may hit a new low this year [10]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is tightening, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the downward pressure on the rubber price is increasing [10].

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a sudden drop in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3400 points before retreating, closing down 0.44% at 3384.82 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86% to 10162.18 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.17% to 2037.27 points, with a total trading volume of 14153.73 billion yuan [1] - Sectors such as port shipping, beauty care, innovative drugs, and rare earth permanent magnets saw gains, while sectors like Huawei Ascend, military industry, semiconductors, and software development faced declines [1] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with Zhongke Magnetic Industry (301141) hitting the daily limit, following two consecutive gains for Beikong Technology (600980) [1] - The agriculture sector rallied in the afternoon, led by the seed industry, while short drama concepts surged, with Ciweng Media (002343) hitting the daily limit and other companies like Zhongwen Online (300364) and Guomai Culture (301052) rising over 10% [1] - Dongwu Securities anticipates a series of event catalysts for the technology sector in June, suggesting sustained prosperity and better elasticity for growth stocks due to a weak dollar environment [1] Group 3 - Jifeng Investment Advisors noted that with a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies being implemented, the A-share market has gradually found a bottom, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [2] - The stock market has shown signs of stabilizing profit corrections, opening up space for further upward movement in profits and valuations, recommending investors to buy on dips [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have remained stable or slightly declined during the holiday period, with weak transaction volumes reported in Shanghai and Hangzhou [1] - The U.S. plans to increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting June 4, alongside heightened export restrictions to China, leading to increased market uncertainty and risk aversion [1] - The traditional demand peak for construction steel will end in June, with weakening real estate investment and reports of corporate bond defaults, resulting in poor demand expectations [1] Group 2 - The crude steel production reduction policy has not yet been implemented, and long-process steel mills are still profitable, leading to slow production cuts and concerns about accumulating supply pressure during the off-season [1] - The supply of raw materials is ample, with risks of price declines for coal, coke, and iron ore, potentially lowering steelmaking costs [1] - The forecast for rebar prices in the second quarter is a downward trend, with cautious investors advised to hold sell positions on out-of-the-money call options and to short the 10 contract [1] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in May, indicating external demand pressures affecting manufacturing and indirect exports of sheet metal, compounded by insufficient domestic demand [1] - The crude steel production reduction policy remains unimplemented, and slow production cuts from steel mills, along with ample raw material supply, are expected to drag down steel prices [1] - The forecast for hot-rolled coil prices in the second quarter is also weak, with continued short positions on the 10 contract recommended [1] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance for imported iron ore is not prominent, with decreasing inventories at steel mills and ports [1] - However, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing external demand pressures, coupled with insufficient domestic demand, lead to poor expectations for steel demand [1] - In June, there may be increased shipping demands from FMG and BHP due to fiscal year-end, while Vale's shipments may shift seasonally, potentially leading to a looser supply-demand situation for imported iron ore [1] Group 5 - Cautious investors are advised to hold a 9-1 long-short combination on iron ore, while aggressive investors may consider shorting the I2601 contract [1] - Risks include potential over-implementation of domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies and breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]

国家统计局5月19日发布的数据显示，在外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面下，伴随更 加积极有为的宏观政策落地见效，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，主要宏观经济指标运行在合理区间，充 分展现了我国经济强大韧性和抗冲击能力。具体来看，4月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%；装备制造业增加值同比增长9.8%，高技术制造业增加值增长10.0%；社会消费品零售总额同比增 长5.1%。1至4月份，基础设施投资同比增长5.8%，制造业投资增长8.8%；全国城镇调查失业率平均值 为5.2%，与上年同期持平。 为什么中国经济在外部冲击下依然能保持平稳增长？国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长 付凌晖在5月19日国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，这既得益于我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜 能大，也得益于宏观政策协同发力、各方面积极应变，更是坚定不移推动高质量发展、加快构建新发展 格局的结果。 广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓表示，5月份，中美短期贸易关税冲突负面影响减弱，外需不确定 性风险暂缓，出口下行压力可能优于此前市场预期。随着一揽子稳经济和化债计划逐步落地见效，消费 及基建投资有望继续保持良好增长态势。 ...

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and continued to grow despite external shocks and internal challenges, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - Key production and demand indicators maintained stable and rapid growth, indicating a positive trend in economic performance [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for April increased by 6.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - High-tech industries such as information services, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and aerospace manufacturing showed significant investment growth, with increases of 40.6%, 28.9%, and 23.9% respectively [2] Private Sector Contribution - The private economy exhibited unique resilience and vitality, contributing significantly to the overall economic improvement in April [4] - Private enterprises' industrial added value grew by 6.7%, while private investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year [4] New Energy Vehicles - The production of new energy vehicles in April rose by 38.9% year-on-year, supported by government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.7%, reflecting a growing acceptance among consumers [6][7] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, with online retail sales reaching 47,419 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [8] - Sales of upgraded consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, experienced significant growth, indicating strong demand for consumer upgrades [8] Real Estate Market - In April, 22 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices increase month-on-month, with Shanghai and Dalian leading the growth at 0.5% [9] - Notably, the year-on-year price increase in Shanghai, Taiyuan, and Hangzhou suggests a potential rebound in certain real estate markets [10]

Economic Performance - In April, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating stable economic performance despite external pressures [1][3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, showing a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter, but remaining at a relatively high level [3][4] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline [4] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in April, maintaining the same growth rate as in March [4] Policy Support - The stability in China's economy is attributed to effective counter-cyclical policies, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and the issuance of special bonds to stimulate consumption and investment [5][6] - Retail sales in categories related to the consumption upgrade policy contributed 1.4 percentage points to the overall growth of retail sales in April [5] Industrial and Trade Resilience - China's industrial base is robust, with the manufacturing sector maintaining its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years, which supports economic stability amid external shocks [6][7] - From January to April, exports of electromechanical products increased by 9.5% year-on-year, reflecting the competitiveness of China's upgraded industrial products in international markets [7] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the economy shows resilience, the foundation for recovery needs to be solidified due to ongoing uncertainties in the international environment [8][9] - There is a consensus on the need for stronger government macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and investment, which are crucial for sustaining economic growth [9][10]

规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1% 消费同比增长5.1% 投资持续扩大 透视四月宏观经济数据：顶住压力稳定增长 ◎记者陈芳 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，展现较强韧性。 国家统计局5月19日发布数据显示，4月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，内需稳步扩大，全国城 镇调查失业率连续2个月下降，新质生产力加快培育。 专家分析称，随着近期出台的稳经济稳就业系列措施和一揽子金融政策逐步显效，下一阶段经济有望保 持稳中有进态势。 国内需求稳步扩大 今年以来，"两重""两新"政策力度加大，内需支撑力较强。据国家统计局数据，4月，社会消费品零售 总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%；环比增长0.24%。此外，1至4月，社会消费品零售总额161845亿元， 同比增长4.7%，比一季度加快0.1个百分点；固定资产投资同比增长4%，较一季度略有放缓，但快于去 年全年增速。 消费新动能增势较好，网上零售、即时零售等新业态增速快于整体。1至4月，实物商品网上零售额同比 增长5.8%，快于整体消费增速；旅游出行相关服务消费增长较快，交通出行、通讯信息、旅游咨询租 赁服务类零售额均保持两 ...