多只成分股表现强势 星石投资认为，短期看，国内暂时缺少新的驱动因素，叠加临近五一假期，海外不确定性因素仍较多， 预计市场以震荡为主。中期来看，海外扰动因素冲击最大的时刻已经过去，中国市场进一步下行风险有 所减小。全球经济秩序重构和美国政策高度不确定性的环境可能会持续，这可能导致全球资金流出美国 市场，相应非美资产有望受益。 上周市场反弹，上证指数上涨0.56%，深证成指上涨1.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%，沪深300指数上涨 0.38%，品牌工程指数上涨0.45%，报1614.56点。 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股表现强势。具体来说，科沃斯上涨12.34%，排在涨幅榜首位；信立泰上 涨9.99%，居次席；上海家化和珀莱雅涨逾9%；药明康德上涨8.53%；丸美生物、中际旭创、宁德时代 涨逾7%；华谊集团、小熊电器、石头科技涨逾5%；阳光电源、恒瑞医药、盾安环境涨逾4%；兆易创 新、恒顺醋业、新宝股份、步长制药、亿纬锂能涨逾3%。 □本报记者 王宇露 2025开年以来，上海家化上涨34.83%，排在涨幅榜首位；信立泰上涨28.19%，居次席；丸美生物和广 联达涨逾20%；安集科技上涨19.48%；韦尔股份、山西汾 ...

Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, both industrial and service sector production achieved rapid growth, but domestic demand remains weak and external demand has declined, indicating a need for further optimization of the supply-demand structure [1][2] - The industrial added value growth rate for January-February was 5.9%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, driven mainly by the transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Investment growth in January-February significantly surpassed market expectations, primarily due to strong infrastructure investment performance, while manufacturing investment showed resilience and real estate investment's decline narrowed [14][25] Production Insights - The industrial added value growth was supported by "promoting consumption" and "grabbing exports," with manufacturing sector performance particularly strong in January-February [3][4] - The service sector also maintained a high growth rate, with modern service industries showing particularly good performance [3][4] - However, high-frequency data and tariff impacts suggest that both industrial and service sectors may face weakening pressures in the future [3][4] Investment Analysis - Total investment, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment in January-February were 4.1%, 9.9%, 9.0%, and -9.8% respectively, showing significant improvements compared to the same period last year [14][25] - The strong performance of narrow infrastructure investment was attributed to the proactive commencement of major projects post-Spring Festival and good progress in the issuance of special bond funds [14][25] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve in the second quarter of 2025, driven by the continuation of equipment renewal policies and marginal improvements in PPI [14][25] Consumption Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0%, slightly below the market expectation of 4.5% [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail was recorded at 3.9%, while catering revenue growth increased to 4.3%, reflecting improved consumption during the Spring Festival [25] - Future consumption support is anticipated from the recovery of housing prices and stock markets, increased social security income, and the continuation of "old-for-new" policies [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for economic work in 2023, with a focus on both short-term and long-term strategies to boost consumption and improve living standards [1] - Short-term measures include maintaining counter-cyclical fiscal policies, increasing spending, and adjusting the expenditure structure to focus more on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [3][4] - Long-term strategies involve continuous reforms in key areas such as the household registration system, income distribution, and social security to provide sustainable growth benefits [4][5] Group 2 - Economic forecasts suggest a stable macroeconomic performance in 2025, with a smoother quarterly fluctuation compared to 2024, although concerns about insufficient consumer demand and export pressures remain [2][3] - The need for fiscal policy to play a crucial role in stabilizing growth is highlighted, with suggestions to shift investment focus from physical assets to human capital to create a long-term mechanism for expanding consumption [3][4] - Reforms in income distribution and social security are critical for increasing household consumption, with proposals to enhance the distribution of corporate profits to residents and improve social safety nets for vulnerable groups [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for economic work in 2024, with a focus on how to stimulate internal demand being a common concern among scholars [1]. Group 1: Short-term and Long-term Strategies - A combination of short-term and long-term strategies is essential for expanding domestic demand, with short-term measures focusing on fiscal policies and structural adjustments to enhance consumer spending [2]. - In the short term, it is crucial to maintain counter-cyclical fiscal policies and increase spending, particularly in areas that benefit people's livelihoods and promote consumption [2][5]. - Long-term reforms in areas such as the household registration system, income distribution, and social security are necessary to provide sustainable growth benefits [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Stability and Challenges - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is expected to be stable, with fewer fluctuations between quarters compared to 2024, although there are concerns about insufficient consumer demand leading to increased economic downward pressure [4][6]. - The stability of the exchange rate is highlighted as a strategic measure to revitalize domestic demand, with the central bank's policies playing a significant role in stabilizing asset prices and boosting consumption [4]. Group 3: Reform and Incentives - Reforming the household registration system is identified as a critical challenge that could significantly boost domestic demand, particularly for the nearly 300 million rural migrant workers [8][9]. - Establishing effective incentive mechanisms for local governments to implement reforms related to household registration can enhance public service provision and stimulate consumption [8][9]. Group 4: Income Distribution and Social Security - The article discusses the low proportion of GDP that residents receive from corporate dividends, suggesting that improving channels for profit distribution could enhance consumer spending [9]. - A proposal to transfer non-financial state-owned capital to social security funds could potentially increase the assets under management and significantly boost the income of low-income groups, thereby stimulating overall consumption [9]. Group 5: Rural Economic Support - Increasing financial support for rural elderly populations is proposed as a means to stimulate domestic demand, with evidence suggesting that enhanced social security can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth [10].