澳洲联储下调核心国内通胀预测，预计失业率将略有上升。 ...

波兰央行官员Wnorowski：利率可能在7月或秋季下调，具体取决于央行的通胀预测。6月份利率不太可 能发生变化。 ...

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：货币政策委员会的通胀预测与货币政策辩论的相关性已减弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its interest rate at 0.5% amid increasing uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs, delaying the timeline for achieving its inflation target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The BOJ extends its outlook period by one year, now including the fiscal year 2027, with core inflation expected to align with the 2% target around the second half of this outlook period [2] - The BOJ's forecast for core inflation in the fiscal year starting April 2027 is set at 1.9%, with inflation excluding fresh food and energy projected at 2% [2] - The BOJ indicates a readiness to tighten monetary policy further if conditions allow, despite recent economic growth forecasts being downgraded [2][5] Economic Growth Projections - The BOJ halves its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, reducing the GDP growth rate from 1.1% to 0.5% for FY2025 and from 1.0% to 0.7% for FY2026 [5][7] - The GDP growth rate for FY2027 is projected at 1.0% [5] Inflation Risks - The BOJ notes that inflation risks are skewed to the downside for the next two years, reflecting heightened uncertainty regarding trade policies [7][8] - Swap traders have delayed bets on interest rate hikes, with the likelihood of a rate increase by the end of the year now at approximately 39% [7] Market Reactions - The yen depreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching 143.79, while Japanese bond prices rose, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 4.5 basis points to 1.265% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the BOJ's stance on future rate hikes, especially in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the recent strength of the yen [12]