Group 1 - The market widely expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [1] - Attention is on the ECB's forecasts for inflation and the economy, with expectations that the ECB will lower its inflation forecast for the Eurozone [1] - Focus is also on the ECB's views regarding the future path of interest rates, particularly whether the ECB will indicate an openness to further rate cuts later this year [1] Group 2 - The ECB's perspectives on trade wars, oil prices, and exchange rates are also of interest [1] - The ECB will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15 Beijing time, followed by a press conference by President Lagarde at 20:45 [1]

Economic Growth Forecasts - The OECD has further downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the US and globally, attributing this to the pressure from President Trump's tariff policies [1] - The US growth outlook for this year has been revised down to only 1.6%, with a projection of 1.5% for 2026, compared to a previous expectation of 2.2% growth in 2025 [1] - The OECD highlighted factors such as the impact of tariff policies, increased economic policy uncertainty, slowed net immigration, and reduced federal government employment as reasons for the downgrade [1] Global Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest global growth forecast has also been lowered, indicating that the economic slowdown is primarily concentrated in the US, Canada, and Mexico, while other economies are expected to see smaller adjustments [1] - Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both this year and 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.1% for this year and 3% for 2026 [1] - The report warns that the global outlook is becoming increasingly severe, with potential negative impacts from increased trade barriers, tightening financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty [1] Inflation Predictions - The OECD has adjusted its inflation forecasts, stating that higher trade costs, particularly in countries with increased tariffs, will push up inflation, although this effect will be partially offset by weaker commodity prices [2] - There is a significant disparity in inflation predictions between the US and other major economies, with the OECD now forecasting a US inflation rate of 3.2% for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 2.8%, and potentially nearing 4% by the end of 2025 [2] - The OECD expects that the Federal Reserve's interest rates will remain unchanged this year, and if inflation stays close to target, some central banks may continue to lower rates [2]

Core Insights - The inflation forecast for Israel over the next 12 months is projected at +2.4% [1] Group 1 - The inflation rate indicates a moderate increase, suggesting potential economic stability [1]

澳洲联储下调核心国内通胀预测，预计失业率将略有上升。 ...

波兰央行官员Wnorowski：利率可能在7月或秋季下调，具体取决于央行的通胀预测。6月份利率不太可 能发生变化。 ...

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：货币政策委员会的通胀预测与货币政策辩论的相关性已减弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its interest rate at 0.5% amid increasing uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs, delaying the timeline for achieving its inflation target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The BOJ extends its outlook period by one year, now including the fiscal year 2027, with core inflation expected to align with the 2% target around the second half of this outlook period [2] - The BOJ's forecast for core inflation in the fiscal year starting April 2027 is set at 1.9%, with inflation excluding fresh food and energy projected at 2% [2] - The BOJ indicates a readiness to tighten monetary policy further if conditions allow, despite recent economic growth forecasts being downgraded [2][5] Economic Growth Projections - The BOJ halves its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, reducing the GDP growth rate from 1.1% to 0.5% for FY2025 and from 1.0% to 0.7% for FY2026 [5][7] - The GDP growth rate for FY2027 is projected at 1.0% [5] Inflation Risks - The BOJ notes that inflation risks are skewed to the downside for the next two years, reflecting heightened uncertainty regarding trade policies [7][8] - Swap traders have delayed bets on interest rate hikes, with the likelihood of a rate increase by the end of the year now at approximately 39% [7] Market Reactions - The yen depreciated by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching 143.79, while Japanese bond prices rose, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 4.5 basis points to 1.265% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the BOJ's stance on future rate hikes, especially in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the recent strength of the yen [12]