Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remained stable in September 2025, with active and balanced cross-border capital flows, indicating robust foreign-related economic development [1] Summary by Categories Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In September 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached $1.37 trillion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7% [1] - Both current account and capital account cross-border receipts and payments continued to grow, showcasing the steady development of China's foreign-related economy [1] Cross-Border Capital Flows - Due to seasonal effects from the National Day holiday, there was a slight net outflow of $3.1 billion in cross-border capital in September; however, this trend reversed to a net inflow in October [1] - The net inflow of funds under the goods trade category remained high, indicating steady growth in foreign trade [1] Sectoral Analysis - Cross-border capital flows in service trade and investment income remained relatively stable, contributing to the overall balanced performance of the foreign exchange market [1]

按美元计值，2025年9月，银行结汇2647亿美元，售汇2136亿美元。2025年1—9月，银行累计结汇18533 亿美元，累计售汇17901亿美元。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）10月22日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年9月，银行结汇18809亿 元人民币，售汇15183亿元人民币。2025年1—9月，银行累计结汇132747亿元人民币，累计售汇128261 亿元人民币。 ...

国家外汇管理局：今年1-9月银行累计结汇132747亿元人民币 按美元计值，2025年9月，银行代客涉外收入6812亿美元，对外付款6843亿美元。2025年1-9月，银行代 客累计涉外收入58705亿美元，累计对外付款57508亿美元。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新网10月22日电 据国家外汇管理局网站消息，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年9月，银行结汇 18809亿元人民币，售汇15183亿元人民币。2025年1-9月，银行累计结汇132747亿元人民币，累计售汇 128261亿元人民币。 按美元计值，2025年9月，银行结汇2647亿美元，售汇2136亿美元。2025年1-9月，银行累计结汇18533 亿美元，累计售汇17901亿美元。 2025年9月，银行代客涉外收入48409亿元人民币，对外付款48629亿元人民币。2025年1-9月，银行代客 累计涉外收入420628亿元人民币，累计对外付款412029亿元人民币。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview" ...

智通财经APP获悉，10月22日，国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年9月外汇市场形势答 记者问。李斌表示，今年前三季度我国涉外收支总规模为11.6万亿美元，创历史同期新高。跨境资金净 流入1197亿美元，银行结售汇顺差632亿美元，均高于上年同期水平。总的来看，面对复杂多变的外部 环境，今年以来我国外汇市场稳健运行，市场预期平稳，供求基本平衡，外汇市场保持着较强的韧性和 活力。 原文如下： 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年9月外汇市场形势答记者问 日前，国家外汇管理局公布了2025年9月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据。国家外汇管理局副局 长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年9月外汇市场形势回答了记者提问。 问：能否介绍一下9月我国外汇市场运行情况? 答：9月我国外汇市场平稳运行，主要呈现两个特点。 一是跨境资金流动保持活跃、均衡态势。9月企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计为1.37万亿 美元，环比增长7%。经常项下和资本项下跨境收支均保持增长态势，显示我国涉外经济稳健发展。受 十一假期对跨境收付的季节性影响，9月跨境资金小幅净流出31亿美元，10月以来已转为净流入。分项 目看 ...

央视网消息：国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年9月，银行结汇18809亿元人民币，售汇15183 亿元人民币。2025年1-9月，银行累计结汇132747亿元人民币，累计售汇128261亿元人民币。 2025年9月，银行代客涉外收入48409亿元人民币，对外付款48629亿元人民币。2025年1-9月，银行 代客累计涉外收入420628亿元人民币，累计对外付款412029亿元人民币。 按美元计值，2025年9月，银行代客涉外收入6812亿美元，对外付款6843亿美元。2025年1-9月，银 行代客累计涉外收入58705亿美元，累计对外付款57508亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年9月，银行结汇2647亿美元，售汇2136亿美元。2025年1-9月，银行累计结汇 18533亿美元，累计售汇17901亿美元。 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年9月外汇市场形势答记者问 日前，国家外汇管理局公布了2025年9月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据。国家外汇管理局 副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年9月外汇市场形势回答了记者提问。 问：能否介绍一下9月我国外汇市场运行情况？ 答：9月我国外汇市场平稳运 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the foreign exchange market, particularly focusing on the RMB/USD exchange rate and the behavior of banks in managing foreign exchange positions amid changing market conditions [1][12]. Exchange Rate Trends - Since March 2025, the RMB has shown an upward trend against the USD, with banks experiencing a continuous surplus in foreign exchange settlements for six months, the longest period since August 2021 [1]. - The average exchange rate for bank settlements has increased by approximately 1.2% compared to previous periods, indicating a "buy low, sell high" strategy [14]. Historical Context of Exchange Rate Fluctuations - The article outlines six phases of RMB exchange rate trends since the 2005 reform, highlighting periods of both appreciation and depreciation, with the most recent phase starting in March 2025 showing a surplus in foreign exchange settlements despite ongoing trade tensions [2][4]. - The average settlement rates for foreign exchange have varied significantly over the years, reflecting changes in market sentiment and external economic pressures [3][4]. Market Behavior and Bank Strategies - The willingness to purchase foreign exchange has decreased, while the motivation to sell has increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. - Banks have adjusted their foreign exchange positions in response to market conditions, acting as liquidity buffers in the foreign exchange market [9][10]. Financial Positioning and Asset Management - By the end of Q1 2025, the private sector's net foreign position turned positive for the first time, indicating a significant increase in foreign financial assets [7][8]. - The article notes that banks have been increasing their foreign exchange positions, which is seen as a rational response to market conditions, rather than speculative behavior [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The current behavior of banks in repurchasing previously "advanced" dollar shorts at the current price level is rational, especially in the context of the RMB exchange rate appreciating against the backdrop of extreme tariff pressures in 2025 [1][22]. Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since March 2025, banks have experienced a continuous surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales for six months, marking the longest period since August 2021 [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown a reversal trend, with the foreign exchange supply exceeding demand since March 2025, despite renewed trade frictions [2][22]. Historical Context of Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The foreign exchange supply and demand dynamics can be categorized into six phases since the 2005 exchange rate reform, with the most recent phase indicating a surplus in foreign exchange supply [2]. - The average settlement rate for foreign exchange has fluctuated significantly across different periods, reflecting changes in market sentiment and external pressures [4][6][7][8]. Market Behavior and Trends - The willingness to settle foreign exchange has generally decreased since July 2014, while the motivation to purchase foreign exchange has increased, indicating a shift in market behavior [8]. - The net foreign position of the private sector turned positive for the first time by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a significant increase in foreign asset allocation [12][15]. Bank's Role in Foreign Exchange Market - Banks have taken on the role of liquidity regulators in the foreign exchange market, adjusting their positions based on the supply-demand dynamics without direct intervention from the central bank [16][20]. - The behavior of banks in increasing foreign exchange positions is seen as rational, especially given the current market conditions and the need for risk management [20][22]. Recent Developments - From March to August 2025, banks recorded a cumulative surplus in foreign exchange settlement, indicating a shift in market conditions [22]. - The average purchase price of foreign exchange by banks has appreciated compared to previous periods, aligning with a strategy of "buy low, sell high" [22].

Core Viewpoint - In August, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut strengthened, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and an increase in the appreciation momentum of the Chinese yuan, while market expectations remained generally stable [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2%, influenced by weaker employment data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]. - The yuan's central parity rate appreciated for the fourth consecutive month, with an average daily appreciation of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and an accelerated average daily appreciation of 51 basis points in late August [2]. - By the end of August, the central parity rate and onshore and offshore yuan exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In August, banks recorded a surplus of $3.2 billion in foreign exchange payments, reversing a deficit of $7.7 billion from the previous month, with foreign currency payments contributing significantly to this surplus [10]. - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, indicating increased foreign interest in Chinese equity assets [11]. - The overall net purchase of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors amounted to approximately $39 billion, dominating the inflow into emerging market investment portfolios [11]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus narrowed to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange [16]. - The ratio of foreign exchange receipts to payments fell to 52.6%, the lowest in five months, while the payment-to-purchase ratio rose to 62.0%, the highest in seven months, suggesting a lack of accumulated expectations for yuan appreciation [16][18]. Group 4: Trade and Investment Trends - The surplus in goods trade payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting a slowdown in export revenue collection [15]. - Direct investment payments recorded a deficit of $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years, indicating a slowdown in capital inflows [12].

Group 1: Currency Trends - In August, the USD index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2% due to weaker employment data and increased expectations for Fed rate cuts[3] - The RMB exchange rate strengthened for the fourth consecutive month, with the midpoint rate appreciating by an average of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and accelerating to an average of 51 basis points in late August[4] - By the end of August, the RMB midpoint, onshore, and offshore exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In August, banks reported a surplus in foreign exchange transactions, narrowing to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness to settle foreign exchange[22] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was reflected in a shift from a deficit of $7.7 billion to a surplus of $3.2 billion in bank foreign exchange payments[14] - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, while overall foreign investment in emerging markets was approximately $45 billion[17] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The nominal effective exchange rate index and the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a slight reduction in the impact of RMB fluctuations on export competitiveness[5] - Direct investment foreign exchange payments showed a deficit increase of $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years[18] - The trade surplus in goods payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting slower collection rates from export enterprises[18]

Core Insights - In August, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut strengthened, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and an increase in the appreciation momentum of the Chinese yuan, while market expectations remained stable [3][4]. Currency Market Analysis - The US dollar index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a decrease of 2.2%, due to weaker-than-expected employment data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [3]. - The Chinese yuan's central parity rate appreciated for the fourth consecutive month, with an average daily appreciation of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and accelerated to an average daily appreciation of 51 basis points in late August [4]. - By the end of August, the central parity, onshore, and offshore exchange rates of the yuan reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month [4]. Cross-Border Capital Flows - In August, cross-border capital turned into a net inflow, with banks' foreign currency payments shifting from a deficit of $7.7 billion to a surplus of $3.2 billion [13]. - Foreign currency payments contributed significantly to this surplus, with a month-on-month increase of $17.6 billion to $53.2 billion, marking a new high since October 2024 [13]. - Foreign investment interest in Chinese stocks increased, with a net inflow of $10.8 billion in August, the highest since February of the same year [14]. Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus narrowed to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness to settle foreign exchange [20]. - The ratio of foreign currency receipts to payments fell to 52.6%, the lowest in five months, while the ratio of payments to purchases rose to 62.0%, the highest in nearly seven months [21]. Trade and Investment - The goods trade surplus decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting a slowdown in export revenue collection [18]. - Direct investment foreign exchange payments showed a deficit increase of $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest for the same period in five years [15].