Group 1 - The European Central Bank's inflation target will remain stable at 2% [1] - Labor costs are gradually slowing down [1] - Economic growth risks are skewed to the downside [1] Group 2 - Trade tensions may reduce economic growth [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - The inflation outlook is more uncertain than in the past [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that most long-term inflation expectations remain around 2% [1] Group 1 - Long-term inflation expectations are stable, indicating confidence in the ECB's monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is committed to controlling long-term inflation expectations and believes its monetary policy is in a favorable position to address various scenarios [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently positioned to effectively respond to multiple economic situations [1]

Core Insights - The majority of indicators suggest that long-term inflation expectations are anchored [1] - The status of the US dollar as a reserve currency provides significant benefits to the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is crucial in the current economic climate, particularly as the impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to fully materialize [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. inflation rate has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four consecutive years, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [3]. - The impact of tariffs, especially on intermediate goods, will not be immediate, leading to delayed effects on consumer prices [3]. - Ongoing global trade negotiations may last for months or even years, complicating the situation further [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Some policymakers advocate for interest rate cuts to support economic growth, viewing tariff impacts as short-term inflation shocks [1][3]. - However, the Federal Reserve, particularly through the views of Kashkari, emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the long-term effects of trade policies and tariffs on inflation and economic stability [1][3][5]. - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policies [5].

美联储会议纪要：部分官员认为长期通胀预期有上升的风险。 ...

美国圣路易联储主席Musalem（阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆）表示，鉴于企业和消费者预期短期内物价上涨，官 员们正致力于保持长期通胀预期稳定。"美联储不希望短期通胀预期上升到可能影响长期通胀预期的水 平……这将使我们在实现充分就业和物价稳定方面的工作更加困难……短期内通胀预期正在上升，一些 长期通胀预期指标也在上升，而大多数其他指标仍保持稳定。"未来10年利率不太可能回到疫情前的水 平，"这种可能性最多只有五分之一……我们正在管理一个不同的经济。" ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：长期通胀预期依然稳定。 ...

美国圣路易联储主席Musalem：长期通胀预期仍然被锚定。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆表示，长期通胀预期仍然被锚定。 ...