来源：滚动播报 美联储巴尔金：美联储需要先实现2%的通胀目标，再讨论容忍该目标附近的一个区间。 ...

目前，美联储改变2%通胀目标的可能性微乎其微。但随着美联储理事会成员构成发生变化，且鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，关于"替代2%固 定通胀目标"的讨论，是否即将逐渐升温？ 市场预计周五公布的数据将显示，美国通胀已连续第54个月超过美联储2%的目标。即便将近年所有冲击因素，以及美联储后疫情时代通胀框架中内置的灵 活性纳入考量，一家央行连续这么长时间未能实现目标，仍属罕见。 而且，通胀很可能在未来数月（甚至数年）内都无法回落至2%。美联储官员的中值预期显示，直至2028年，整体个人消费支出（PCE）通胀与核心PCE通 胀才有望回到2%。 采用"通胀区间"的可能性 对于一个"连续四年多每月都未实现"的目标，选择改变它（本质上是"临时调整规则"），显然不是一件光彩的事。 话虽如此，"政策试探"最好尽早进行。替代当前通胀目标的潜在方案之一是"通胀区间"，部分美联储官员近期已对此表示认可，其中最受关注的是亚特兰大 联储主席博斯蒂克。 本周，博斯蒂克在《宏观思考》（Macro Musings）播客节目中接受乔治梅森大学高级研究员戴维·贝克沃思（David Beckworth）采访时表示，他对未来采 用"通胀区间" ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, initially reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September, but Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting paved the way for a potential cut [3][5]. Economic Data and Market Reaction - The Jackson Hole meeting dominated market sentiment, with US stocks rebounding after a four-day decline. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% as a result of Powell's comments [4]. - For the week of August 18 to August 22, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5.4 basis points to 4.262%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 4.4 basis points to 3.707%. The US dollar index fell by 0.14% to 97.72 [4]. Jackson Hole Meeting Insights - Powell's speech indicated a shift in monetary policy stance, suggesting a lower threshold for a September rate cut. He noted that inflation risks have diminished, while unemployment has risen significantly [5]. - Employment growth has slowed, with an average of only 35,000 non-farm jobs added over the past three months, far below the monthly target of 168,000 for 2024 [5]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve announced revisions to its monetary policy framework, moving away from the average inflation targeting (AIT) to a more flexible 2% inflation target. This change reflects the current high inflation environment [6]. - The focus on employment shortfalls has been removed, but the Fed will still monitor employment levels closely [6]. Strategic Implications - In an optimistic scenario, the expectation is for rate cuts in September and December, with an overall reduction of no more than 50 basis points for the year. The market currently prices in about 2.2 rate cuts for the year, which may be overly optimistic [7]. - Following the September FOMC meeting, the market is likely to increase bets on rate cuts in 2026, which could lead to a downward trend in the 2-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index [7].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 安联集团的首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为，在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上，美 联储主席鲍威尔回避了对美联储未来战略的深入反思，也未提及改革，将这些问题留给了继任者。这种 做法虽然避免了政治争议，但也错过了一个重要的战略反思机会。 杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上的主旨演讲，历来被视为全球最具影响力的央行领导人分享重要战略见解 的舞台，这些见解不仅涉及货币政策，也涵盖更广泛的经济与制度性议题。 然而，埃里安称，上周五鲍威尔并未选择走这条路。相反，美联储主席采取了回避风险的做法。 在这番言论下，股市、债市及其他资产价格全线上涨，交易员基本忽视了他随后补充的与通胀相关的限 定措辞。 然而，埃里安认为，鲍威尔并未花足够时间讨论经济的结构性演变，包括劳动力市场，而这正是今年研 讨会的主题。考虑到他在政策制定上高度依赖滞后的数据，这种回避风险的取向其实并不意外。 鲍威尔讲话的第二个重点，是对货币政策框架定期修订结果的介绍，或者用他的话说，即"我们如何追 求双重使命"，实现物价稳定和最大就业。他将变化界定为"渐进演变"，再次凸显出以往修订（ ...

日本央行：将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适当实施货币政策。 ...

日本央行：潜在消费者通胀率可能在2025财年到2027年预测期的下半年达到与2%目标基本一致的水 平。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：任何增加判断我们是否实现2%通胀目标难度的因素，都会延长降息的时间表。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's primary goal is to control the inflation rate at 2% [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable inflation rate [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的通胀预期仍未稳定在2%的目标水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must focus on maintaining inflation expectations at 2% [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Rehn emphasizes the importance of keeping inflation expectations stable [1] - The commitment to a 2% inflation target is crucial for economic stability and growth [1] - Rehn's statements reflect the ECB's ongoing efforts to manage inflation in the Eurozone [1]