1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg supply pressure has been alleviated, and the egg price may bottom out. In the second half of the year, especially during the Mid - Autumn Festival in August and September, the egg price is expected to strengthen. However, the specific increase in egg price depends on whether the number of culled chickens can remain high. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the increase will be relatively large; otherwise, it will be limited. [5][24][40] - For the futures market, the downward space of the futures price is relatively limited as the profit per catty of eggs is in a loss or flat state. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if not, the contracts may fluctuate slightly stronger. [5][42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the spot price of eggs was weak. Due to the high pre - stocking volume, the supply was loose in the first half of the year. Combined with the average feed cost, the egg price was low. It started at 3.1 yuan/jin and dropped to around 2.65 yuan/jin. The futures contracts also showed a weak trend, and the August contract dropped to around 3455. [4][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The downward space of the futures price is limited because of the loss or flat profit per catty of eggs. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, the spot price of eggs was weak in 2025. The supply was loose due to high pre - stocking, and the futures contracts also performed weakly. [10] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Spot**: The spot price of eggs trended weakly in the first half of the year. The average price in the main production areas dropped from around 3.2 yuan/jin to around 2.62 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas from 3.38 yuan/jin to 2.84 yuan/jin. The increase in the number of culled chickens recently has alleviated the supply pressure. [11] - **Supply**: In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 will be approximately 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively. The proportion of large, medium, and small eggs in June was 40.67% (medium - low level in the same period over the years), 42.28% (medium level), and 17.05% (medium - high level) respectively. The egg - laying rate in June was about 90.98%, at a low level in the same period over the years, and is expected to decline with the hot weather. In May, the monthly egg - laying chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month - on - month decrease and a 1% year - on - year increase. The current weekly market price of egg - laying chicks is 4.06 yuan/feather, a 0.08 - yuan decrease from the previous month. The number of culled chickens increased in June but was still at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. As of June 19, the average culling age was 509 days, at a medium - high level over the years. [11][13][14] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand was okay but declined recently due to the seasonal off - season. As of June 19, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7527 tons, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 20317.1 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and the catering revenue in May was 457.8 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [22][24] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, at a low level in the same period over the years, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. [24] - **Cost and Profit**: The feed cost changed little in the first half of the year and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In June, the corn price was 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2986 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2591 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.85 yuan/jin for eggs. As of June 19, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, at a low level in the same period over the years. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, also at a low level in the same period over the years. [31][33] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price changed little in the first half of the year, and the pork price remained in a low - level shock. As of June 22, the Shouguang vegetable index was 103.73, and as of June 20, the pork price was around 15.72 yuan/kg. The low vegetable and pork prices had a relatively weak substitution demand for eggs. [34] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level over the years, but the supply pressure has been alleviated recently. If the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens weakens, the supply side will still face pressure; if the number of culled chickens remains large, the supply pressure will improve. [40] - **Demand**: The short - term demand is average due to the off - season, but in the long - term, the egg price may be boosted by the seasonal peak in the second half of the year. [40] - **Feed Cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs in the first half of 2025 was about 2.8 yuan/jin. The prices of corn and soybean meal changed little, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level, providing certain support for the egg spot price. [40] - **Overall Outlook**: In the second half of the year, the egg price is expected to strengthen, especially in August and September. The specific increase depends on the future number of culled chickens. For the futures market, the downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the number of culled chickens. [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - Recent chicken egg prices in China have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with average prices rising to 7.28 yuan/kg as of June 26, 2023, reflecting a 1.82% increase from the previous week [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in egg prices is attributed to low inventory levels and stimulated consumer demand due to lower prices, despite concerns about the sustainability of this rebound due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [1][3]. - As of June 20, average inventory levels in production and circulation were reported at 0.95 days and 1.04 days, respectively, indicating a decline of approximately 10.38% and 10.34% compared to previous periods [3]. - Analysts predict that the supply of laying hens will continue to increase, with a theoretical growth of 0.75% in laying hen inventory expected in July [4][5]. Seasonal Influences - The traditional low season for chicken eggs typically occurs in June, with high temperatures and humidity affecting storage and quality, leading to a generally pessimistic outlook for the market [3][4]. - The end of the plum rain season in mid-July is anticipated to improve storage conditions, potentially leading to a recovery in prices as demand for replenishment increases [6][7]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Historical data suggests that chicken egg prices tend to rise significantly from the low point during the plum rain season to the peak during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with average increases ranging from 25% to 88% [7]. - Current market conditions indicate that while prices may stabilize at low levels in the short term, a significant rebound is expected post-plum rain season, with potential price peaks estimated between 3.8 yuan and 4.1 yuan per jin [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level this week, but the overall storage volume was small and the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, coupled with the plum rain season in the South, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory reached a new high this year. Although it is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, the reduction in supply is limited, and the demand is weak. The egg price may fall to a new low this year [7]. - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is currently at a historical high, and the supply of eggs is under pressure in the medium term. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term but may have bottom support in the second half of the year [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - level Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the storage volume was small [7]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The number of newly opened - production chickens was greater than the number of old chickens leaving the market. In June, the number of newly opened - production chickens is expected to decline slightly, and the laying rate of laying hens will decrease. The overall demand is in the off - season, and the egg price is under pressure [7]. Strategy Views and Outlook - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is at a high level, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the support at the 3600 level of the 09 contract and consider going long lightly in case of an over - decline [9][10]. - The 08 contract has a large premium. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, with a short - term pressure level of 3700 [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level. The average price was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. 3.3 Supply Side - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. It is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, and the supply pressure may ease [29]. - In May, the total sales volume of chicken fry was 45.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66%. Although the sales volume decreased month - on - month, it was still at a high level. The supply pressure of eggs remains unchanged, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure [35]. - Due to low egg prices and rising feed costs, the enthusiasm for chicken culling has increased, but the number of cullable chickens is limited this month. The total culling volume of old hens this week was 539,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [40][43]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand for eggs shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, and the highest level of the year in mid - to - late September [60]. - Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the terminal replenishment is cautious, and the overall demand lacks positive support [7]. 3.5 Cost Side - Corn prices are rising due to reduced supply and trade frictions. Although the supply of soybean meal will be alleviated, the feed cost of laying - hen farming is expected to rise in the medium term, providing bottom support for the egg price [65]. - The egg cost line is an important driving factor for price changes, and the egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [69]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the cost of laying - hen farming was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.85%. The farming profit was - 0.82 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty, a decline of 8.89% [76].

Group 1 - The main contract for egg futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 2810.00 yuan, with a current price of 2823.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.67% [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that the egg price may continue to decline due to stable supply and reduced demand from downstream markets, with expectations of increased inventory levels [1] - The mid-term perspective indicates an increase in the number of laying hens, which, combined with seasonal factors, may lead to further downward pressure on egg prices [1] Group 2 - Short-term demand for eggs is supported by increased replenishment in channels and cold storage, but the arrival of the rainy season may weaken demand and put pressure on prices [2] - The long-term outlook suggests that after a period of poor profits in the breeding sector, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks may decline, potentially leading to reduced new production in the fourth quarter [2] - The strategy recommendation includes a cautious approach to trading, with a focus on short-selling during price rebounds, particularly monitoring key resistance levels for future contracts [2]

Core Insights - The egg prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and supply pressure, with average prices in major production areas showing a downward trend [1][4] - As of June 3, the national average egg prices in various regions are reported, with notable prices in Shandong at 6.90 yuan/kg and Fujian at 7.00 yuan/kg [2] - The futures market shows a decline in egg futures, with the main contract closing at 2897.00 yuan/500 kg, down 1.16% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of May, the monthly sales volume of eggs in major consumption areas is 37,200 tons, a decrease of 5.68% compared to April [3] - The inventory levels in the production and circulation stages are at historically low levels, with production inventory at 0.98 days and circulation inventory at 1.07 days [3] - The number of laying hens as of May 2025 is 1.334 billion, showing a slight increase compared to previous months, indicating a high supply level [3] Market Dynamics - The firm corn prices are providing cost support for egg production, while the current egg prices are at a low level for the year, leading to replenishment demand in the market [4] - High levels of laying hen inventory and increased production pressure from newly added hens are contributing to a sufficient supply of eggs [4] - The impact of hot and humid weather is raising storage costs for eggs, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream distributors [4]

Supply Side - The number of laying hens in production has shown an upward trend, with approximately 1.329 billion hens as of the end of April, up from 1.318 billion at the end of March and 1.306 billion at the end of February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from 1.24 billion last year [1] - Due to favorable breeding profits starting in May 2024, the replenishment enthusiasm in the second half of the year has improved and is expected to continue [1] - Sample enterprise data suggests a slight increase in stock levels is anticipated in Q2 2024, with this trend likely to persist at least until the end of Q2 [1] Demand Side - Weekly chicken egg sales for the four weeks ending May 1 were approximately 8,772 tons, consistent with March figures and up from 6,942 tons in February, while April sales were around 7,674 tons [1] - April sales showed both month-on-month and year-on-year increases, with good sales post-Qingming Festival, although some demand may be attributed to low-price stockpiling that has not yet been fully consumed at the terminal [1] - The inter-regional movement of people increased by about 5.5% compared to last year during the May Day holiday, which is beneficial for holiday consumption demand for eggs [1] Market Outlook - The current demand season is not robust, with excess inventory needing to be digested, leading to a potentially weak market in May, with attention on the Dragon Boat Festival stocking situation at the end of the month [1] - In the futures market, due to weak spot prices and low basis for the June contract, there may be room for price declines, with a rebound contingent on continued increases in chicken culling [1] - Short-term outlook is bearish, with futures traders advised to monitor mid-month spot stability and consider bearish operations if demand remains lukewarm, while looking for opportunities in the August and September contracts post-monsoon season [1] Key Variables - Important variables to monitor include the demand situation for the Dragon Boat Festival, culling intentions, and feed costs [1]

Supply Side - The number of laying hens in production has shown an upward trend, with a monthly stock of approximately 1.329 billion as of the end of April, up from 1.318 billion at the end of March and 1.306 billion at the end of February, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared to 1.24 billion last year [1] - Due to favorable breeding profits starting from May 2024, the replenishment enthusiasm in the second half of 2024 is expected to recover and continue. Some sample enterprises suggest a slight increase in stock in the second quarter of this year, with current breeding profits indicating this trend may persist at least until the end of the second quarter [1] Demand Side - Weekly chicken egg sales for the four weeks leading up to May 1 were approximately 8,772 tons, consistent with March figures and up from 6,942 tons in February, while April sales were around 7,674 tons. April sales showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, with good sales post-Qingming Festival, although some demand may be attributed to low-price stockpiling that has not yet been fully consumed at the terminal level [1] - From April 30 to May 3, the nationwide inter-regional mobility increased by about 5.5% year-on-year, compared to a 2.1% increase during the same five days last year, which is beneficial for holiday consumption demand for eggs [1] Market Outlook - The current peak season for spot demand is not robust, with excess inventory needing to be digested. A decline in demand is anticipated, leading to a weaker market in May, with attention on the replenishment situation post-Duanwu Festival. The futures market may see price declines due to weak spot conditions and low basis for the June contract, with short-term bearish sentiment prevailing [1] - Strategies suggest that producers and spot traders should view May's spot prices as weak, while futures speculators may find the June futures overvalued. Monitoring mid-month spot stability is crucial, with a bearish approach recommended if conditions remain lukewarm. Opportunities for long positions may arise after the rainy season, particularly for the August and September contracts once valuations decrease [1] - Key variables to watch include Duanwu demand, culling intentions, and feed costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].