Group 1: China Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index remains in the contraction zone, but shows slight improvement compared to last week, indicating marginal economic recovery[1] - The consumption index is still in contraction, suggesting that consumer spending momentum needs to be restored[1] - The production index has fallen back into contraction, reflecting volatility in supply-side recovery, although investment remains a core support for stable growth[1] - The investment index remains in the expansion zone, indicating that investment continues to support economic stability[1] - The export index has stabilized at the edge of expansion, showing resilience in Chinese exports despite weak global demand[1] Group 2: Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year[6] - The Canadian central bank also cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, with a cautious stance on future policy directions[6] - The UK central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 4%, emphasizing a cautious approach due to rising inflation risks[7] - In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, below market expectations, but the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating challenges in the labor market[8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, suggesting a potential for rate cuts in the near future, with a target rate of 3.5% by Q3 2026 [1][9]. Core Insights - Economic growth is slowing due to reduced immigration, declining government spending, and stagnation in healthcare employment, but inflation is not a primary concern [1][3]. - Emerging technologies are driving capital investment, leading to economic growth, although companies prioritize profit margins over labor input, resulting in stagnant wage growth and hiring [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a cautious rate-cutting cycle, with inflation not anticipated to be a significant issue in the next 6-9 months [8]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Labor Market - Current economic conditions show a bifurcated landscape, with emerging technologies contributing to capital investment while companies focus on profit margins, leading to stagnant wage growth and hiring [4][11]. - Existing labor income is growing at an annual rate of 3.7%, but new job creation is stagnant [4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with some members advocating for rate hikes while the majority favors further cuts [5][6]. - The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in October and December is higher than a pause, influenced by upcoming employment data [6]. Inflation and Future Projections - Inflation is not expected to be a major issue in the near term, allowing the Federal Reserve to approach a cautious rate-cutting cycle [8]. - By the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve may need to consider inflation concerns as credit expansion and emerging technologies impact the labor market [9]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rates are around 3%, with a potential low of 2.85%, indicating uncertainty in the market [10]. - Emerging markets, such as Brazil and South Korea, are highlighted as areas of interest due to potential structural reforms and asymmetric opportunities [14].

重磅数据或将扰动美联储降息前景。 在美联储重启降息后，美股三大指数本周集体创出历史新高。根据日程安排，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数将于9月26日发布。另外，美 联储官员们也将于下周密集发声，或将释放后续货币政策走向的信号。 站在当前时点，华尔街正押注美联储未来将更快、更大幅度地降息。据LSEG数据，期货市场押注美联储基准短期利率将在明年年底降至3%以下，远低于当前略高 于4%的水平，也低于美联储官员们预测的3.4%。 重磅数据来袭 受美联储降息提振，美股本周持续走强，三大指数均创出历史新高，纳指、标普500指数年内累计涨幅分别超17%、13%。 目前华尔街一致预期，美联储将在10月、12月继续降息。美联储也暗示未来将进一步下调利率，以支撑疲弱的劳动力市场。 高盛集团对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储已明确表示，后续还计划进行一系列降息，股票市场显然已经嗅到了这一积极信号。 看涨叙事并未因上周的美联储会议而动摇，反而推动周期股相对防御股的走势再创新高。 展望下周，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE物价指数即将出炉。 市场将借此评估关 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储卡什卡利：劳动力市场并不糟糕，但值得密切关注。 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D trading is currently above 9901, with an opening at 9853 and a current price of 9934, reflecting a 1.06% increase [1] - The highest price reached was 9944, while the lowest was 9805, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the silver market [1] - The daily chart shows continued upward oscillation in silver T+D prices, with significant resistance levels at 9976-10000 and support levels at 9700-9805 [4] Group 2 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 were recorded at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [3] - This marks the largest decline in initial jobless claims in nearly four years, suggesting that companies are inclined to retain existing employees despite economic uncertainties [3] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both supply and demand for labor [3] Group 3 - A technical error led to a significant underestimation of jobless claims in North Carolina by over 19,000, with the correct figure expected to be around 19,355 instead of the reported 205 [4] - Following the correction, it is anticipated that the national continuing jobless claims will increase by approximately 20,000, maintaining levels consistent with previous weeks [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on September 18, with an opening price of $3684.11 per ounce, a high of $3704.51, a low of $3627.92, and a closing price of $3641.27 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 was reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [2] - This marks the largest decline in initial claims in nearly four years, indicating that companies are still inclined to retain employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both labor supply and demand [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with the lowest point reaching $3627 during the trading session, followed by a slight recovery to close at $3643 [8] - The daily chart indicates a small bearish candle, suggesting a potential top formation, while the short-term indicators are showing a downward trend [8] - The hourly chart reflects a bearish sentiment, with prices stabilizing below key moving averages, indicating a cautious trading approach [8] Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be initiated at $2627 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a profit target above $3640 [9] - For conservative traders, a buy position can be initiated at $3612 with similar stop loss and profit target parameters [10] - For short positions, aggressive entry can be at $3658 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target below $3647, while a more conservative entry can be at $3668 with a target below $3655 [10]

Market Overview - The bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the 10-year yield, following recent Federal Reserve announcements and press conferences [1][3] - Recent data has shown a decline in short-term yields, influenced by the Fed's updated projections indicating potential rate cuts [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut rates and projected two additional cuts for the year, reflecting a somewhat dovish stance [4] - Economic projections from the Fed indicate stronger growth and a lower unemployment rate compared to previous forecasts [4] Inflation and Labor Market - Inflation remains high but is not accelerating, while there are concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market [5][10] - The Fed's approach appears to be more about risk management rather than initiating a consistent rate-cutting cycle [5][11] Long-term Yield Outlook - There are mixed expectations regarding long-term yields, with some analysts predicting they may not decrease in tandem with short-term rates [8][9] - Concerns about budget issues and elevated inflation may lead to demands for higher yields from investors [9][10] Conclusion - The Fed's current strategy may support stable long-term yields, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [11]

Group 1 - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased by 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ending September 13 [1] - Despite the drop in claims, there are indications of a weakening labor market as both hiring and worker supply are easing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled continued easing into 2025, but the dovish tone of Powell was less than expected, leading to a nearly 1% drop in gold prices [1] Economic Data and Policy Expectations - The latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, but Powell remains cautious about the pace of cuts. The FOMC voting results show that most members supported a 25 basis point cut, with only one member advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [3] - The Fed acknowledged that recent inflation data has risen but remains at a "high level," while also recognizing signs of economic growth slowing in the first half of 2025 [3] Labor Market and Inflation Dynamics - Powell emphasized signs of weakness in labor demand and that inflation remains elevated. He noted a shift in the balance of policy risks and stated that the current policy framework can flexibly respond to economic changes [4] - He clarified that there was no broad support for a 50 basis point cut at this meeting and reiterated that the decision-making body is not in a hurry to accelerate easing [4] Technical Analysis and Support/Resistance - Gold prices fell sharply after reaching a historical high of $3,707.35, stabilizing around $3,660. The 14-day RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside, but the overall trend remains bullish [5] - The upward targets are set at $3,750 and $3,800, with primary support at $3,650. A break below this level could test the September 11 low of $3,613, slightly above the psychological level of $3,600 [5] Market Perspective - The current market is characterized by a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" cycle typical of Federal Reserve dynamics. Despite short-term pressure on gold prices from a rebounding dollar, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's focus on employment, a downward trend in real interest rates, geopolitical risks, and global central bank gold purchases [7] - The company maintains a bullish stance, advising investors to monitor the effectiveness of the $3,650 support level. If it holds, investors may consider accumulating long positions with targets above $3,750; if it breaks, caution is warranted regarding a potential pullback to $3,600 [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high of 3700 before a sharp decline of 60 USD, indicating a high-stakes battle between bulls and bears [1][3] - After breaking the 3700 mark, gold dropped to 3645, with further support levels identified at 3626 and 3600, suggesting potential rebound opportunities [3][4] - The recent four-month upward trend in gold prices was interrupted by a period of consolidation, but a new upward momentum has emerged, leading to renewed interest in trading strategies [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was influenced by a weak labor market and financial risks, causing the dollar to weaken and gold prices to rise [4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on future rate cuts indicates a careful approach to managing economic risks, which may impact gold's price trajectory [4][5] Group 3: Employment Market Impact - Rising unemployment claims are a critical indicator affecting the Fed's decisions, with implications for the labor market and potential financial risks [5] - The ability to accurately assess entry and exit points in gold trading is emphasized as essential for achieving stable profits, highlighting the importance of experience and risk management [5] Group 4: A-Share Market Trends - The A-share market is showing strong performance, with technology leaders emerging as key drivers, mirroring trends seen in the Nasdaq [6][8] - The competitive landscape in the tech sector is evolving, with a focus on the emergence of super giants amid intensified competition between China and the U.S. [9]