周三，美国一家贸易法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税将不会生效，这一全面裁决表明总统越权了。经济学 家表示，这一裁决虽然带来了一定的缓解，但又给经济状况增添了另一层不确定性。 此前美国银行研究所报告显示，2月至4月期间，领取失业救济的高收入家庭数量同比大幅增加，4月中 低收入家庭申领人数同比亦显著上升。经济学家预计，受季节性波动数据调整难度影响，6月初请人数 可能突破今年20.5万至24.3万的区间，但这一趋势与近年相似，未必反映劳动力市场状况的实质性转 变。 美联储今晨的会议纪要显示，尽管决策者认为劳动力市场总体平衡，但"评估认为未来几个月劳动力市 场存在走弱风险"，并指出就业前景"存在相当大的不确定性"，其结果"在很大程度上取决于贸易政策及 其他政府政策的演变"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数 24万人，预期23万人，前值由22.7万人修正为 22.6万人。美国至5月17日当周续请失业金人数 191.9万人，预期189.4万人，前值由190.3万人修正为 189.3万人。 续请失业金人数数据与非农就业报告调查周相关，且刚刚创下周期新高，这可能导致失业率上升。续请 失业金人数涵盖了政府为计 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation is rising due to a combination of post-pandemic economic recovery, a tightening labor market, and supply shocks [1] Group 1 - The increase in core inflation is influenced by the economic recovery following the pandemic [1] - A tightening labor market is contributing to the rise in domestic prices and wage levels [1] - Supply shocks are also impacting the inflationary pressures in Japan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs may significantly hinder the development of the U.S. economy and weaken the labor market, as highlighted by St. Louis Fed President Musalem [1][3] - Musalem emphasized that even with recent tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. economy remain substantial [3] - The increase in tariffs raises the prices of imported goods, leading to higher consumer costs and increased production costs for businesses reliant on imported materials, which could suppress economic activity [3] Group 2 - Musalem, as a voting member of the FOMC, believes that U.S. monetary policy is well-prepared to respond flexibly to any changes in economic outlook [4] - He stressed the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, indicating that maintaining public confidence in combating inflation is crucial for economic stability [4] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market could exacerbate existing economic uncertainties, affecting market interest rates and borrowing costs [4][5] Group 3 - Bostic expressed satisfaction with the current policy stance, acknowledging that increased uncertainty may delay the normalization of U.S. monetary policy [5] - He cautioned that aggressive policy adjustments in a high-uncertainty environment could introduce more risks, hindering economic recovery [5]

美联储穆萨莱姆：如果贸易紧张局势持续缓解，通胀可能回到目标水平，劳动力市场保持弹性，当前的 货币政策将保持适当性。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：美国经济有潜力，劳动力市场稳定，通胀有所缓解，但高于2%的目标。 ...

美联储戴利：经济稳健增长，劳动力市场稳健，通胀率下降，这正是我们希望达到的目标。目前的货币 政策能够应对经济中的各种变化，耐心是当下的关键词。 ...

步入2025年，美国经济正处于复杂多变的十字路口，一系列关键指标和潜在因素相互交织，描绘出一幅充满韧性却也面临诸多挑战的经济图景。深入剖析美 国经济现状，能为洞察全球经济走向提供关键视角。 增长态势：稳健中显露分化 近年来，美国经济增长展现出一定韧性。2024年第三季度，实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率达2.8%，虽较第二季度的3%有所下滑，但仍彰显出经济 的稳定扩张趋势。消费者支出作为经济增长的关键驱动力，在高利率和谨慎情绪影响下，增长步伐有所放缓。不过，科技与医疗保健等部分行业表现亮眼， 为经济增长注入活力。 从地域维度看，经济复苏呈现不均衡态势。城市中心凭借多元化产业结构和强大创新活力，迅速从疫情冲击中反弹；而部分农村地区及小城市，因投资不 足、就业机会创造缓慢，仍在艰难爬坡。这种地域发展差距，凸显出制定针对性政策，推动经济全面复苏的紧迫性。 通胀形势：降温但依旧高企 劳动力参与率仍低于疫情前水平，特别是老年劳动者与家庭照料者群体。美国商会数据显示，尽管当前就业人数多于疫情前，但劳动力占总人口比例下降。 目前美国有800万个职位空缺，而失业人数仅680万，若劳动力参与率恢复至2020年2月水平，将新 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：劳动力市场仍然坚挺。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：通胀回落的进展已放缓。劳动力市场状况基本保持稳定。 ...