剧烈波动时代，自由现金流，或许是"最长的坡""最厚的雪"。 ©️懂财帝出品 · 作者｜嘉逸 近期，A股利好消息频传。 国家统计局披露，国内一季度GDP超预期增长5.4%，达到31.88万亿，持续稳中向好。五一假期消费数据亮眼，出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%。 央行宣布降准降息，下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点。 5月12日，瑞士日内瓦也传来重磅利好，会谈取得了实质性进展，外部扰动因素出现了转机。 受此影响，今日，上证、深证指数分别高开0.5%、0.98%。 展望后市，A股能否向上突破？券商机构认为，中期来看，大洋彼岸仍存在不确定性，经济基础还需要进一步稳固。二季度，A股或将延续震荡偏强趋 势。 对大多数普通投资者来说，博弈板块轮动，极易"受伤"，最优的资产配置策略是：稳健、攻守兼备。 据此来看，自由现金流ETF（159201），或许是一个不错的选择。 编制阶段，全程"严选"。它先剔除了银行、房地产这两个现金流模式特殊的行业，再创新引入以质量为主的负面剔除因子，直接剔除近12个季度ROE稳定 性排名后10％的公司，以及近一年经营活动现金流占营业利润比例排名后30%的公司。 1 ｜ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and growth of the Guozheng Free Cash Flow ETF, which has seen significant increases in both its index and fund size, indicating strong investor interest and liquidity [1][3]. - As of May 12, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a cumulative increase of 2.51% over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 164 million yuan over the past four days, with an average daily net inflow of approximately 40.88 million yuan [1]. Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% among comparable funds, making it cost-effective for investors [3]. - The tracking error of the ETF is only 0.006% over the past month, indicating the highest tracking precision compared to similar funds [3]. - The underlying index, the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, is currently at a historical low valuation with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.58, which is below 80.9% of the time over the past year, suggesting a favorable valuation for investors [3]. Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF has a total share count of 3.542 billion, reaching a one-month high, and its total scale has reached 3.475 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1][3]. - The ETF's liquidity is strong, with an average daily trading volume of 302 million yuan over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's latest margin buying amount is 1.3563 million yuan, with a margin balance of approximately 49.4 million yuan, indicating continued leverage interest [1].

公告数据显示，鹏华中证全指自由现金流交易型开放式指数证券投资基金，已获证监会许可，将于2025年5月19日至30日公开发售，募集上限20亿元。投资 者可通过网上现金认购（5月29-30日）或网下现金认购（5月19-30日）参与。 现金流ETF中证全指(认购代码：512133，交易代码：512130)紧密跟踪中证全指自由现金流指数，由中证指数公司编制、聚焦A股市场自由现金流率较高企 业的策略型指数，通过"自由现金流/企业价值"筛选100只财务健康、盈利稳定且现金创造能力突出的上市公司，形成兼顾周期、消费与成长板块的哑铃型配 置。 中证指数官网数据显示，截至2025年5月12日，该指数前十大权重股包括美的集团、中国神华、中国海油、五粮液、中远海控等，前十大权重股合计占比达 65.55%。 | Hill | 中证指数 产品与服务 CHINA SECURITIES IND | 首页 | | 研究与洞见 | 国际合作 | 投教基地 | 信息披露 | 关于我们 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 十大权重 | | | | | 更新日期: ...

截至2025年5月12日15:00，国证自由现金流指数强势上涨1.02%，成分股欧圣电气、中国动力、天润工业、宸展光电、海信家电等个股领涨。自由现金流 ETF(159201)上涨1.03%，最新价报0.98元。 流动性方面，自由现金流ETF盘中换手8.12%，成交2.77亿元。拉长时间看，截至5月9日，自由现金流ETF近1年日均成交3.02亿元，居可比基金第一。 从估值层面来看，自由现金流ETF跟踪的国证自由现金流指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅11.79倍，处于近1年19.9%的分位，即估值低于近1年80.1%以上的时 间，处于历史低位。 自由现金流ETF（159201）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，可帮助投资者一键配置"现金奶牛"上市公司。基金的管理年费率、托管年费率均为市场最低费率 水平。规模方面，截至2025年5月11日，自由现金流ETF最新流通份额和流通规模均位居同标的指数产品第一。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年5月9日，自由现金流ETF近1月跟踪误差为0.004%，在可比基金中跟踪精度最高。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, has increased by 0.93%, with leading stocks including China Power, Weichai Power, Zhenhua Heavy Industries, Ousheng Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen a trading volume of 1.24 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.64% [3] - Over the past three days, the Free Cash Flow ETF has experienced a net inflow of funds totaling 158 million yuan, reaching a new high of 3.536 billion shares [3] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF's latest management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [3] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index is 11.79, indicating it is at a historical low, below 80.1% of the time over the past year [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 56.66% of the index, with companies like Midea Group and China National Offshore Oil Corporation among them [4] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF has a tracking error of only 0.004% over the past month, indicating the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds [3] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 2.6358 million yuan, with a financing balance of 52.2858 million yuan [3] - The top ten stocks in the Free Cash Flow ETF include Midea Group, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Weichai Power, with varying weightings and performance [6]

中金研究 红利风格作为过去3年A股和港股市场持续性较好的主线之一，从去年"924"之后至今年3月，相对收益一度下降。4月初随着美国关税政策带来外部不确 定性，A股整体企业盈利景气行业预期受到影响，投资者对业绩稳定性和确定性的要求上升，红利风格关注度阶段回升。近期2024年年报披露结束， 2024年A股上市公司提升分红意愿进一步提升，在上市企业盈利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要支 撑。本报告结合2024年年报，重点梳理当前A股市场分红特征的变化情况，并对相关红利选股模型进行进一步优化与更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 2024年A股上市公司的分红特征 A股上市公司现金分红总额创历史新高，约九成盈利企业进行现金分红。 2024年4月"新国九条"出台以来，监管层持续强化对现金分红的鼓励和支持力 度，叠加A股上市公司自由现金流改善，A股整体现金分红水平进一步提高。具体来看：1）2024年A股上市公司累计现金分红金额2.3万亿元，同比增速 5%；现金分红公司数量占比69.1%，剔除亏损上市公司后2024年分红公司数量占比89.3%。2）A股整体分红比例（现金分红/净利润）提升2. ...

自由现金流ETF已成为今年公募基金公司重点布局的方向之一，多家机构持续接力，自由现金流ETF产 品陆续上架。 3月，易方达国证自由现金流ETF、银华国证自由现金流ETF、华宝沪深300自由现金流ETF开始发行。4 月，广发基金、南方基金、博时基金等多家公司均开始发行自由现金流ETF，包括广发中证800自由现 金流ETF、南方中证全指自由现金流ETF等众多产品，仅4月14日当天，就有10只自由现金流ETF产品集 体发行。 □本报记者万宇 近期公募基金公司布局自由现金流ETF热情高涨，持续有新品推出。5月13日，嘉实国证自由现金流 ETF、方正富邦中证全指自由现金流ETF上市交易；5月9日，招商中证全指自由现金流ETF成立，平安 中证全指自由现金流ETF、中银中证全指自由现金流ETF还在继续发行。 自由现金流系列指数及其相关ETF一经推出就得到了各方高度认可。基金人士认为，充足的自由现金流 是评价上市公司投资价值的重要指标之一，看好自由现金流ETF的配置价值。 公募基金积极布局 在今年初，华夏基金和国泰基金申报的两只自由现金流ETF获批，这也是国内首批获批的自由现金流 ETF，拉开了公募基金公司布局自由现金流ET ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $90 million with a margin of 11% for the first quarter, which was in line with the outlook of $85 million to $105 million [10][12] - Adjusted operating earnings were $0.68 per share, and free cash flow was lower than the previous quarter due to timing of payments and annual incentive compensation [10][12] - Free cash flow is expected to be heavily weighted to the second half of the year, with historical data showing nearly 90% generated in that period [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced operational challenges in North America, impacting financial performance by approximately $10 million due to lower sales volume and operational costs [12][13] - Planned maintenance outage costs increased by $9 million due to major outages at specific mills [13][14] - Price and mix were unfavorable by $10 million, driven by lower pulp prices and paper price decreases in Europe, although partially offset by price increases in North America and Brazil [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, demand for uncoated freesheet decreased by 7% year-over-year, while Latin America saw a 3% increase, primarily driven by strong demand in Brazil [18][19] - North American apparent demand was down about 1% year-over-year, influenced by higher imports, which accounted for nearly 15% of overall supply [18][19] - The company anticipates real demand to decline by 3% to 4% for the year, with domestic industry supply reduced by 10% due to mill closures [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving its product mix and operational efficiency, particularly in Europe, where it plans to reduce costs and enhance capabilities at specific mills [22][23] - A new Senior Vice President and General Manager has been appointed to lead efforts in improving performance and customer relationships [22][23] - The company aims to leverage its global footprint to enhance product mix and customer service in North America while reducing exports to non-core markets [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about a global economic slowdown and potential inflation risks on raw materials and transportation costs, but believes these risks are manageable [24][25] - The company is well-positioned to navigate tariff uncertainties, with over 90% of raw materials sourced locally and minimal reliance on imports from China [26][27] - A significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA performance is expected in the second half of the year due to lower maintenance costs and improved commercial results [20][30] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced its debt by about half over the past three years, with a current leverage ratio of 1.1 times [28] - Capital allocation strategy focuses on maintaining a strong financial position while investing in business improvements and returning cash to shareholders [28][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the operational issues faced? - The operational issues were primarily reliability problems at the Ticonderoga and Eastover mills, with one intermittent issue expected to be resolved in the second quarter [36] Question: How do you expect to recover orders pushed into the third quarter? - The anticipated recovery in the third quarter could be less than $10 million, influenced by ongoing operational challenges and volume issues from the Riverdale mill [37][38] Question: What are the upgrades at SIAD and the market opportunities? - Upgrades at SIAD include investments in new capabilities to enter specialty segments, while opportunities at Newmola focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing wood costs [50][52] Question: How are tariffs affecting trade flows? - Tariffs have led to increased imports into the U.S. and decreased pulp prices in Europe, driven by reduced demand in China [57][58] Question: What is the outlook for capital spending for the year? - The company maintains its full-year capital spending guidance of $220 million to $240 million, with significant cash flow expected in the second half of the year [61][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net revenue decreased by 7% year over year to $555 million [21] - Consolidated AOI declined by 30% to $104 million, with a 19% margin [21] - Adjusted EPS was reported at $0.52 [21] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $94 million, on track to achieve approximately $220 million for the full year [20][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic operations revenue decreased by 7% to $486 million, with subscription revenue down by 3% due to a 12% decline in affiliate revenue, partially offset by 8% growth in streaming revenue [21][22] - Advertising revenue in domestic operations decreased by 15% year over year, primarily due to lower linear ratings [25] - International revenue for the first quarter was $70 million, down 7%, with subscription revenue decreasing by 12% due to the non-renewal with Movistar in Spain [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Streaming subscribers at the end of the quarter were 10.2 million, flat compared to the prior year, with a slight decline from 10.4 million at the end of 2024 [24] - Advertising revenue from streaming is still in the low single digits but provides incremental revenue opportunities [48][49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on programming, partnerships, and profitability, emphasizing the generation of free cash flow [5][32] - Strategic initiatives include launching ad-supported versions of AMC Plus and Shudder, and expanding partnerships with distributors like Charter and Comcast [7][10] - The company aims to enhance its content distribution ecosystem and improve viewer experience through partnerships [36][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategic direction despite macroeconomic uncertainties affecting the advertising market [32] - The company anticipates streaming revenue growth to accelerate as the year progresses, driven by pricing actions and new series debuts [25][31] - Management remains vigilant regarding potential impacts from the advertising market but has not seen meaningful indicators suggesting a material pullback [32][44] Other Important Information - The company has a healthy cash position with net debt of $1.5 billion and a consolidated net leverage ratio of 2.9 times [29] - The company has no bond maturities until 2029 and maintains over $1 billion in total liquidity [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you tell us about the streaming subscribers coming in through bundled video packages? - Management is pleased with the integration with Charter and the anticipated take rates for embedded streaming services [35] Question: Are you seeing any risk of cannibalization on the a la carte side? - Management believes that expanding distribution will create a healthier video ecosystem and additional revenue opportunities [38] Question: How much of your advertising is coming from streaming? - Streaming advertising delivers incremental revenue, and the company is confident in its genre-based services [49] Question: When will you lap the subscription revenue issues from the Spanish drop? - Management anticipates growth in the Spanish market with other partners and is optimistic about future relationships with Movistar [50][51] Question: What do you expect content spend and content amortization to be this year? - Content amortization is expected to be slightly lower year over year, with cash content spend also down slightly [69]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced low-level fluctuations on May 9, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both dropping over 1% during the session. The textile manufacturing and electricity sectors led the gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The lowest fee tier of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) initially rose before experiencing fluctuations, with active trading leading to a transaction volume exceeding 190 million yuan [1]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) saw a net inflow of funds for two consecutive trading days, totaling 114 million yuan, and reached a fund size of 3.401 billion yuan as of May 8, marking a new high since its launch [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - A series of financial policies are gradually being implemented, which are believed to address current market concerns and provide strong support for consolidating the positive trend of economic recovery [1]. - The ongoing reforms in capital market investment and financing, along with mechanisms to stabilize the market, are expected to attract more long-term funds into the A-share market [1]. Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The management and custody annual fee rates of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) are at the lowest levels in the market, closely tracking the National Index of Free Cash Flow [1]. - The ETF selects stocks with positive and high proportions of free cash flow after screening for liquidity, industry, and ROE stability, indicating a high-quality index that may serve as a foundational tool for balancing growth stock investments [1].